Qualitative study of a quarantine/isolation model with multiple disease stages

Recent studies suggest that, for disease transmission models with latent and infectious periods, the use of gamma distribution assumption seems to provide a better fit for the associated epidemiological data in comparison to the use of exponential distribution assumption. The objective of this study is to carry out a rigorous mathematical analysis of a communicable disease transmission model with quarantine (of latent cases) and isolation (of symptomatic cases), in which the waiting periods in the infected classes are assumed to have gamma distributions. Rigorous analysis of the model reveals that it has a globally-asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium whenever its associated reproduction number is less than unity. The model has a unique endemic equilibrium when the threshold quantity exceeds unity. The endemic equilibrium is shown to be locally and globally-asymptotically stable for special cases. Numerical simulations, using data related to the 2003 SARS outbreaks, show that the cumulative number of disease-related mortality increases with increasing number of disease stages. Furthermore, the cumulative number of new cases is higher if the asymptomatic period is distributed such that most of the period is spent in the early stages of the asymptomatic compartments in comparison to the cases where the average time period is equally distributed among the associated stages or if most of the time period is spent in the later (final) stages of the asymptomatic compartments. Finally, it is shown that distributing the average sojourn time in the infectious (asymptomatic) classes equally or unequally does not effect the cumulative number of new cases.     

Dynamics of a two-strain vaccination model for polio

A new deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of two strains of polio, the vaccine-derived polio virus (VDPV) and the wild polio virus (WPV), in a population is designed and rigorously analysed. It is shown that Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV) reversion (leading to increased incidences of WPV and VDPV strains), together with the combined effect of vaccinating a fraction of the unvaccinated susceptible and missed susceptible children, could induce the phenomenon of backward bifurcation when the associated reproduction number of the model is less than unity. Furthermore, the model undergoes competitive exclusion, where the strain with the higher reproduction number (greater than unity) drives the other (with reproduction number less than unity) to extinction. In the absence of OPV reversions (leading to the co-existence of both strains in the population), it is shown that the disease-free equilibrium of the model is globally-asymptotically stable whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Numerical simulations of the model suggest that the model undergoes the phenomenon of competitive exclusion, where the strain with the higher reproduction number (greater than unity) drives the other to extinction. Furthermore, co-existence of the two strains is feasible if their respective reproduction number are equal or approximately equal (and greater than unity).     

Global properties of a general dynamic model for animal diseases: A case study of brucellosis and tuberculosis transmission

Animal diseases such as brucellosis and tuberculosis can be transmitted through an environmentally mediated mechanism, but the topics of most modeling work are based on infectious contact and direct transmission, which leads to the limited understanding of the transmission dynamics of these diseases. In this paper, we propose a new deterministic model which incorporates general incidences, various stages of infection and a general shedding rate of the pathogen to analyze the dynamics of these diseases. Under the biologically motivated assumptions, we derive the basic reproduction number _R0$R_0$, show the uniqueness of the endemic equilibrium, and prove the global asymptotically stability of the equilibria. Some specific examples are used to illustrate the utilization of our results. In addition, we elaborate the epidemiological significance of these results, which are very important for the prevention and control of animal diseases.     

Complete global stability for an SIRS epidemic model with generalized non-linear incidence and vaccination

This paper deals with global dynamics of an SIRS epidemic model for infections with non permanent acquired immunity. The SIRS model studied here incorporates a preventive vaccination and generalized non-linear incidence rate as well as the disease-related death. Lyapunov functions are used to show that the disease-free equilibrium state is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than or equal to one, and that there is an endemic equilibrium state which is globally asymptotically stable when it is greater than one.     

Global stability for an HIV/AIDS epidemic model with different latent stages and treatment

An HIV/AIDS epidemic model with different latent stages and treatment is constructed. The model allows for the latent individuals to have the slow and fast latent compartments. Mathematical analyses establish that the global dynamics of the spread of the HIV infectious disease are determined by the basic reproduction number under some conditions. If R₀ < 1, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and if R₀ > 1, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable for a special case. Some numerical simulations are also carried out to confirm the analytical results.     

一类具有饱和发生率和CTL免疫反应的HIV-1感染时滞模型的全局稳定性分析

通过构造合适的Lyapunov函数证明了一类具有饱和发生率和CTL免疫反应的HIV-1感染时滞模型各可能平衡点的全局稳定性.     

Global dynamics of a delayed SEIS infectious disease model with logistic growth and saturation incidence

In this paper, a delayed Susceptible‐Exposed‐Infectious‐Susceptible (SEIS) infectious disease model with logistic growth and saturation incidence is investigated, where the time delay describes the latent period of the disease. By analyzing corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of a disease‐free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium is discussed. The existence of Hopf bifurcations at the endemic equilibrium is established. By using the persistence theory for infinite dimensional dynamic systems, it is proved that if the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, the system is permanent. By means of suitable Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle's invariance principle, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global stability of the disease‐free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium, respectively. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the theoretical results. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global asymptotic stability of a stochastic Lotka-Volterra model with infinite delays

In this paper, sufficient criteria for global asymptotic stability of a general stochastic Lotka-Volterra system with infinite delays are established. Some simulation figures are introduced to support the analytical findings.     

Global asymptotic stability for an age-structured model of hematopoietic stem cell dynamics

We investigate a system of two nonlinear age-structured partial differential equations describing the dynamics of proliferating and quiescent hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) populations. The method of characteristics reduces the age-structured model to a system of coupled delay differential and renewal difference equations with continuous time and distributed delay. By constructing a Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional, we give a necessary and sufficient condition for the global asymptotic stability of the trivial steady state, which describes the population dying out. We also give sufficient conditions for the existence of unbounded solutions, which describe the uncontrolled proliferation of HSC population. This study may be helpful in understanding the behavior of hematopoietic cells in some hematological disorders.     

A nonlinear HIV/AIDS model with contact tracing

A nonlinear mathematical model is proposed and analyzed to study the effect of contact tracing on reducing the spread of HIV/AIDS in a homogeneous population with constant immigration of susceptibles. In modeling the dynamics, the population is divided into four subclasses of HIV negatives but susceptibles, HIV positives or infectives that do not know they are infected, HIV positives that know they are infected and that of AIDS patients. Susceptibles are assumed to become infected via sexual contacts with (both types of) infectives and all infectives move with constant rates to develop AIDS. The model is analyzed using the stability theory of differential equations and numerical simulation. The model analysis shows that contact tracing may be of immense help in reducing the spread of AIDS epidemic in a population. It is also found that the endemicity of infection is reduced when infectives after becoming aware of their infection do not take part in sexual interaction.     

Re-infection-induced backward bifurcation in the transmission dynamics of Chlamydia trachomatis

A new two-group deterministic model for Chlamydia trachomatis is designed and analyzed to gain insights into its transmission dynamics. The model is shown to exhibit the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium (DFE) co-exists with one or more stable endemic equilibria when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. It is further shown that the backward bifurcation dynamic is caused by the re-infection of individuals who recovered from the disease. The epidemiological implication of this result is that the classical requirement of the reproduction number being less than unity becomes only a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for disease elimination. The basic model is extended to incorporate the use of treatment for infectious individuals (including those who show disease symptoms and those who do not). Rigorous analysis of the treatment model reveals that the use of treatment could have positive or negative population-level impact, depending on the sign of a certain epidemiological threshold. The treatment model is used to evaluate various treatment strategies, namely treating every infected individual showing symptoms of Chlamydia (universal strategy), treating only infectious males showing Chlamydia symptoms (male-only strategy) and treating only infectious females showing symptoms of Chlamydia (female-only strategy). Numerical simulations show that the implementation of the male-only or female-only strategy can induce an indirect benefit of saving new cases of Chlamydia infection in the opposite sex. Further, the universal strategy gives the highest reduction in the cumulative number of new cases of infection.     

Global stability of a multiple infected compartments model for waterborne diseases

In this paper, mathematical analysis is carried out for a multiple infected compartments model for waterborne diseases, such as cholera, giardia, and rotavirus. The model accounts for both person-to-person and water-to-person transmission routes. Global stability of the equilibria is studied. In terms of the basic reproduction number $R_0$, we prove that, if $R_0⩽1$, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the infection always disappears; whereas if $R_0>1$, there exists a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable for the corresponding fast–slow system. Numerical simulations verify our theoretical results and present that the decay rate of waterborne pathogens has a significant impact on the epidemic growth rate. Also, we observe numerically that the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable for the whole system. This statement indicates that the present method need to be improved by other techniques.     

Global results for an HIV/AIDS model with multiple susceptible classes and nonlinear incidence

In this paper, an HIV/AIDS epidemic model is proposed in which there are two susceptible classes. Two types of general nonlinear incidence functions are employed to depict the scenarios of infection among cautious and incautious individuals. Qualitative analyses are performed, in terms of the basic reproduction number $\R_0$, to gain the global dynamics of the model: the disease-free equilibrium is of global asymptotic stability when $\R_0\leq 1$; a unique endemic equilibrium exists and globally asymptotically stable $\R_0> 1$. The introduction of cautious susceptible and the resulting multiple transmission functions has positive effect on HIV/AIDS prevalence. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate and extend the obtained analytical results.     

Global dynamics of an epidemic model with relapse and nonlinear incidence

On the basis of a basic SIR epidemic model, we propose and study an epidemic model with nonlinear incidence. The model also incorporates many features of the recovered such as relapse and with/without immunity. A threshold dynamics is established, which is completely determined by the basic reproduction number. The global stability of the disease‐free equilibrium is proved by means of the fluctuation lemma. To prove the global stability of the endemic equilibrium, we need some novel techniques including the transformation of variables, the construction of a new type of Lyapunov functions, and the seeking of an appropriate positively invariant set of the model.     

Global asymptotic stability for a class of nonlinear neural networks with multiple delays

This paper investigates the global asymptotic stability (GAS) for a class of nonlinear neural networks with multiple delays. Based on Lyapunov stability theory and the linear matrix inequality (LMI) technique, a less conservative delay-dependent stability criterion is derived. The present result is shown to be less conservative than those given in the literature.     

Analysis of an SVIC model with age-dependent infection and asymptomatic carriers

In this paper,we formulated an age-dependent model for the transmission dynamics of HBV with vaccination. The class of acutely infectious individuals,asymptomatic carrier of host population is stratified by age. Mathematically, we established that basic reproduction number can govern the global stability of equilibria. Biologically, we verify the impacts of the asymptomatic carriers and the effectiveness of vaccination on the disease transmission through numerical simulation. Our results indicated that the more number of infectious individuals specific to frequently progressed to asymptomatic carriers, the more likely the disease can be eradicated by continuous vaccination strategies.     

Global stability of an SIS epidemic model with delays

In this paper, we consider the global dynamics of the S(E)IS model with delays denoting an incubation time. By constructing a Lyapunov functional, we prove stability of a disease‐free equilibrium E₀ under a condition different from that in the recent paper. Then we claim that R₀≤1 is a necessary and sufficient condition under which E₀ is globally asymptotically stable. We also propose a discrete model preserving positivity and global stability of the same equilibria as the continuous model with distributed delays, by means of discrete analogs of the Lyapunov functional.     

The asymptotic behavior of a nonautonomous eco-epidemic model with disease in the prey

A nonautonomous eco-epidemic model with disease in the prey is formulated and studied. Some sufficient and necessary conditions on the permanence and extinction of the infective prey are established by introducing the new research method. Some sufficient conditions on the global attractivity of the model are presented by constructing a Lyapunov function. Finally, an example is given to show that the periodic model is global attractivity if the infective prey is permanent.     

Asymptotic analysis for a nonlinear reaction–diffusion system modeling an infectious disease

In this paper we study a nonlinear reaction–diffusion system which models an infectious disease caused by bacteria such as those for Cholera. One of the significant features in this model is that a certain portion of the recovered human hosts may lose a lifetime immunity and could be infected again. Another important feature in the model is that the mobility for each species is allowed to be dependent upon both the location and time. With the whole population assumed to be susceptible with the bacteria, the model is a strongly coupled nonlinear reaction–diffusion system. We prove that the nonlinear system has a unique solution globally in any space dimension under some natural conditions on the model parameters and the given data. Moreover, the long-time behavior and stability analysis for the solutions are carried out rigorously. In particular, we characterize the precise conditions on variable parameters about the stability or instability of all steady-state solutions. These new results provide the answers to several open questions raised in the literature.     

Optimal control and stability analysis of an online game addiction model with two stages

In this paper, we establish a mathematical model of online game addiction with two stages to research the dynamic properties of it. The existence of all equilibria is obtained, and the basic reproduction number is calculated by the method of next-generation matrix. The global asymptotic stability of disease-free equilibrium (DFE) is proved by comparison principle, and the global asymptotic stability of endemic equilibrium (EE) is proved by constructing an appropriate Lyapunov function. Then we use the Pontryagin's maximum principle to find the optimal solution of the model, so that the number of infected people can be minimized. In numerical simulation, firstly, we validate the global stability of DFE and EE. Secondly, we consider three kind of control measures (treatment, isolation, and education) and divide them into four cases. The models with control and without control are solved numerically by using forward and backward sweep Runge-Kutta method. In order to achieve the best control effect, we suggest that three kind of measures should be used simultaneously according to the optimal control strategy.