基于教育基金保险的期权定价

本文基于文献[1]引入一种基于教育年金保险的欧式看涨期权,它赋予合约持有人在约定时间以约定价格购买一份连续支付一定年限的教育年金的权利,本文运用保险精算和期权定价的二叉树方法对其进行的定价,并说明这种合约方便于一些低收入家庭进行教育投资.     

基于Lee-Carter模型的互助养老年金研究

基于经典的双线性随机Lee-Carter模型,采用经济学的协整理论,对中国大陆男性人口死亡率进行预测,克服了ARIMA模型预测的局限性.在随机利率和Lee-Carter模型的基础上度量退休年金和生命年金的长寿风险,并为此提出应对策略,引入由消费者承担系统长寿风险、年金池承担个体长寿风险的群体自助养老年金(GSA),然后对其进行实证分析发现,与普通年金相比,GSA模型分担模式拥有较高的给付额.     

带有通胀风险的退休后最优投资-年金化时刻决策

研究了带通货膨胀的确定缴费养老计划退休后最优投资-年金化决策。假设通货膨胀过程是一个随机过程,建立了真实财富的波动过程。先相对固定年金化时刻,采取目标定位型模型,预设未来各时期的投资目标,利用贝尔曼优化原理,得到从退休时刻到相对固定年金化时刻之间的最优投资策略。接着建立了最优年金化时刻的评估标准,最优的年金化时刻使得年金化前后的累加消费折现均值得到最大。证明了在随机通货膨胀的假设下,传统的自然投资目标不存在;当随机通胀过程退化到确定过程时,求出了自然投资目标的显式表达式,并且在这两种情况下,分析了通胀情况对最优投资策略的影响。最后利用数值分析手段, 研究了通货膨胀、风险偏好、折现率对最优年金化时刻的影响。     

期权视角下房屋预售合约定价模型

房屋预售合约赋予了购房者以给定的价格购买房屋的权利,具有期权性质。首先基于房地产市场具有摩擦的事实,将房屋预售合约视为房价的期权合约,然后通过将房价演变过程模型化为Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程,导出了预售合约的合理价格(即首付)的解析表达式,最后比较了采用几何布朗运动与Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程模拟房价变化所得房屋预售价格的差异。结论认为,基于Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程导出的房屋预售合约价格相较于几何布朗运动下的预售合约价格具有更小的套利空间。     

保险统计的基本原理和方法（Ⅳ）

保险统计的基本原理和方法（Ⅳ）黄向阳编译（中科院系统所，北京，１０００８０）４．人寿年金与纯保险费４．１关于年金的预备知识年金（ａｎｎｕｉｔｙ）可以定义为系列按相等时间；司隔支付的款项．在日常生活中．年金越来越常见了．如退休养老金．房租．以及分期付款...     

相依风险结构下弹性退休年金产品价值风险比较

为应对人口老龄化,我国在“十四五”规划及2035年远景目标纲要中提出了弹性实施延长退休年龄的社会养老保险制度改革的举措.从西方较早进入老龄化国家的制度实践来看弹性退休制具有可行性.本文提出关于保险产品价值的风险测度,在弹性退休年龄、剩余寿命等风险因素非独立条件下使用阿基米德copula对风险因素的依存关系建模,通过Laplace变换得到了基于随机序的弹性退休年金产品价值风险的比较定理.这些定理说明延迟退休年龄意愿与余寿对弹性退休年金产品价值的影响效应,为弹性退休制下社会养老保险账户的财务风险防控提供了精算基础.     

分期付款购房模型及其抛物障碍问题

考虑常数利率条件下的分期付款购房模型,若风险资产市场价格服从几何布朗运动,则合约可以运用美式期权定价方法给出合理的价格.该文给出了分期付款购房合约定价的偏微分方程方法,得到一个一维抛物障碍问题,同时给出了贷款合约价格函数所联系的自由边界,并讨论了自由边界的单调性与有界性.     

Vasicek利率模型下具有随机障碍的动态保障年金的定价

带有动态保障的投资连接基金在整个投资期间提供了一些安全保障.文章考虑了随机利率环境下,具有随机障碍水平的动态保障年金的价格.当障碍水平设为某个零息债券的函数时,可以给出具有动态保障年金的价格.     

跳扩散模型下权益指数年金的定价

权益指数年金收益在最小保证基础上, 能参与特定权益的收益. 通常权益指数年金定价是在假设权益指数遵从Black-Scholes模式下进行的, 但是一些例外事件(比如, 重大的政治事件)的发生, 会导致价格的巨幅波动, 这个假设并不合理. 因此本文研究了权益指数在跳扩散模型下权益指数年金的定价问题. 运用Esscher变换方法得到了点对点指数收益方法下权益指数年金定价的显示解,并对结果作了敏感性分析.     

养老基金投资组合的常方差弹性(CEV)模型和解析决策

针对以年金形式发放待遇的缴费预定制养老基金,在退休前和退休后的两个阶段,分别构建了常方差弹性(CEV)模型,并应用Legendre变换将原问题转化为对偶问题,在追求指数效用最大化的条件下,求得了精确解析解,从而确定了这两个阶段的最优投资决策．     

Longevity risk in pension annuities with exchange options: The effect of product design

We consider defined benefit pension plans that, at retirement age, allow the participant to choose between a single life annuity and a joint and survivor annuity. We compare two plans that differ in terms of how pension rights are accrued. In one plan, the participant accrues the right to receive a single life annuity, and can exchange that annuity for an actuarially equivalent joint and survivor annuity at retirement date. The opposite holds in the other plan. We show that both plans are affected by longevity risk in two ways. First, the participants’ choices at retirement age affect the ratio of survivor benefits over single life benefits, and, therefore, affect the natural hedge potential that arises from combining single life and survivor annuities. Second, uncertainty in the rate at which the participant will be allowed to exchange one type of annuity for the other at retirement date induces uncertainty in the level of the nominal rights for single life and survivor annuities, respectively. We compare the two plans, and show that longevity risk is substantially lower in case rights are accrued in the form of a joint and survivor annuity.     

A new defined benefit pension risk measurement methodology

Defined benefit pension plan sponsors have taken on greater risks for sponsoring these plans in the last several years. Due to ever increasing concerns of longevity risk and the weak economic environment, sponsors are eager to understand their pension-related risks to facilitate optimal enterprise decision-making. Borrowing an analytical framework from the life insurance and annuity industry where the amount of risk is framed in terms of the total assets required to remain solvent over a one-year period with a high level of confidence, i.e., the economic capital approach, this paper develops a benchmark risk measure for pension sponsors by obtaining a total asset requirement for sustaining the pension plan. The difference between the total asset requirement and the actual trust assets thus provides a measure of sponsor assets at risk due to plan sponsorship. Two factor-based approaches are proposed for this calculation. The first approach develops a set of pension-specific factors as if the pension plan were a group annuity. The second approach directly simulates the risk drivers of the pension plan and develops a framework for obtaining factors and calculating the pension risk given a desired confidence level. Our approach is very easy to implement and monitor in practice.     

递增年金的双随机模型

The dual random models about the life insurance and social pension insurance have received considerable attention in the recent articles on actuarial theory and applications. This paper discusses a general kind of increasing annuity based on its force of interest accumulationfunction as a general random process. The dual random model of the present value of the benefits of the increasing annuity has been set, and their moments have been calculated under certainconditions.     

Efficient approximations for numbers of survivors in the Lee–Carter model

In portfolios of life annuity contracts, the payments made by an annuity provider (an insurance company or a pension fund) are driven by the random number of survivors. This paper aims to provide accurate approximations for the present value of the payments made by the annuity provider. These approximations account not only for systematic longevity risk but also for the diversifiable fluctuations around the unknown life table. They provide the practitioner with a useful tool avoiding the problem of simulations within simulations in, for instance, Solvency 2 calculations, valid whatever the size of the portfolio.     

Income drawdown option with minimum guarantee

This paper deals with a constrained investment problem for a defined contribution (DC) pension fund where retirees are allowed to defer the purchase of the annuity at some future time after retirement.     

中国基本养老保险替代率精算模型及其应用

利用年金理论并结合1997年国务院《关于建立统一的企业职工基本养老保险制度的决定》文件,得到我国职工在不同缴费年限下基本养老保险替代率精算模型,并利用该模型对基本养老保险替代率进行模拟分析.这对于明确我国当前基本养老保险替代率及完善基本养老保险政策具有重要的理论指导意义和实际应用价值.     

A utility-based comparison of pension funds and life insurance companies under regulatory constraints

This paper compares two different types of annuity providers, i.e. defined benefit pension funds and life insurance companies. One of the key differences is that the residual risk in pension funds is collectively borne by the beneficiaries and the sponsor’s shareholders while in the case of life insurers it is borne by the external shareholders. First, this paper employs a contingent claim approach to evaluate the risk return tradeoff for annuitants. For that, we take into account the differences in contract specifications and in regulatory regimes. Second, a welfare analysis is conducted to examine whether a consumer with power utility experiences utility gains if she chooses a defined benefit plan or a life annuity contract over a defined contribution plan. We demonstrate that regulation can be designed to support a level playing field amongst different financial institutions.     

Notes on the dynamics of pension funding

The authors follow up some previous work on the dynamics of pension funding by three notes. The first of these concerns contribution rates consisting of the normal cost plus a generalized amortization method for unfunded supplemental present value (actuarial accrued liability). The second note examines aggregate cost funding for active members when there exist consistent difference between the assumed and the actual rates of interest and of growth. The third note explores the operation of a variable annuity system in the context of our general model for pension funding dynamics.