奥运会男子现代五项前三名成绩的灰色马尔可夫链预测模型的研究

研究了奥运会男子现代五项前三名成绩的预测模型.将灰色GM(1,1)模型和马尔可夫模型结合,构建了灰色马尔可夫预测模型.对奥运会男子现代五项前三名成绩趋势进行了预测,给出了第30届奥运会男子现代五项前三名成绩的预测结果,并大大提高了预测精度.     

奥运会男子十项全能前三名成绩的灰色预测模型的研究

研究了奥运会男子十项全能前三名成绩的灰色预测模型.将奥运会第20届至第28届男子十项全能前三名成绩数据进行分析处理,采用包络线法和新陈代谢法建立GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,该模型不仅贴近实际,还可以对第29届男子十项全能前三名成绩进行预测.     

奥运会男子现代五项前三名成绩的灰色预测模型的研究

研究了奥运会男子现代五项前三名成绩的灰色预测模型.将奥运会第16届至第29届男子现代五项前三名成绩数据进行分析处理,采用包络线法和新陈代谢法建立GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,预测了第30届男子现代五项前置名成绩.并对预测结果进行了分析.结果表明:该模型精度较高、预测误差小,预测结果可为我国体育决策部门、教练和运动员提供参...     

从北京奥运会看概率在体育中的体现和应用

概率论是从数量上研究随机现象统计规律性的一门数学学科,在科技、管理、经济等领域具有着重要作用.同样,在充满变数的奥运会里面,也有着广泛的应用和体现.从北京奥运会里面的一些问题加以总结,以扩大对于概率论在体育中应用的了解,增加学习概率论的兴趣.     

田径径赛记录模型及其分析

文平，马振东．田径径赛记录模型及其分析．数理统计与管理，１９９８，１７（３），１６～２０．本文给出了世界和亚洲的田径径赛记录模型，从统计学的角度分析和说明了田径赛容易突破的项目，提出了田径理论中的一些新观点，最后对世界记录做了预测     

混水平列扩充设计的均匀性

在许多工业应用中,通常分步应用跟随设计来考察输入(因子)和产出(响应)间的关系.在许多跟随设计中,在跟随阶段可以加入一些另外的两水平或三水平因子,因为它们在初始阶段可能被忽略但又十分重要.文章在均匀性准则下,提出了中心化L2-偏差意义下的混水平列扩充均匀设计,给出了列扩充设计在中心化L2-偏差下的解析表达式及相应的下界,其可作为搜索均匀设计的基准.进一步,具有一个附加区组因子的列扩充设计是均匀的当且仅当未加区组因子时的列扩充设计是均匀的.     

因子分析综合评价应该注意的问题

因子分析综合评价应用较为普遍,而目前存在一些问题,如:因子何时需要旋转,因子个数如何确定更好,何为因子命名与正向化选取变量的标准,何为具有优良性的准确因子值,何为主成分分析与因子分析的关系与差异等,忽视这些问题会导致评价没有合理性。这里用近期建立的因子分析新模型及其解理论等,解决了这些问题,得出因子分析综合评价达到合理需要的5个条件,并结合评价实例提出了建议。     

扩大设计的中心化L_2-偏差的新下界

在构造两水平因子设计时,折叠反转是非常有用的技巧.折叠反转设计是通过改变初始设计中一个或多个因子的符号产生的跟随设计.通过把折叠反转设计中的处理加到初始设计中所得到的设计称为扩大设计.本文中,我们应用条件极值的方法得到了一般折叠反转方案下扩大设计在中心化L_2-偏差下一个新的下界,它可以作为寻找最优折叠反转方案的一个基准.     

具有边界摄动弱非线性反应扩散方程的奇摄动

在适当的条件下研究了一类具有边界摄动的非线性反应扩散方程奇摄动初始边值问题．首先,借助正规摄动方法,得到了原问题的外部解．其次,利用伸长变量和幂级数展开理论,构造了解的初始层项．然后,利用微分不等式理论,研究了初始边值问题解的渐近性态．最后,利用一些相关的不等式,讨论了原问题解的存在、唯一性及其一致有效的渐近估计．     

初始可行基的判定

用高等数学的理论和方法,对无初始可行基的线性规划问题解的存在性及求解方法进行研究,得出关于无初始可行基的线性规划问题解的存在性的六个定理,回答了无初始可行基的线性规划问题解的存在条件和该问题的初始可行基的确定方法.     

Achievement and benchmarking of countries at the Summer Olympics using cross efficiency evaluation method

In this paper, an extension tool of data envelopment analysis (DEA), namely cross efficiency evaluation method, is used to measure the performance of the nations participating in the last six Summer Olympic Games. The model in the paper considers two inputs (GDP per capita and population) and three outputs (number of gold, silver and bronze medals won), and the weight restrictions are included to guarantee that a unit of silver medal corresponds to a higher valuation than a unit of bronze medal, and the highest for gold medal. The results for the last six Summer Olympic Games are analyzed, and a unique ordering of the participants based on average cross efficiency is provided, also cluster analysis technique is used to select the more appropriate targets for poorly performing countries to use as benchmarks.     

Measuring the performance of nations at the Olympic Games using DEA models with different preferences

It is well known that Olympic Games often use Lexicographic preference to rank the nations that won the medals. However, Lexicographic preference is not the underlying preference that is used in the standard DEA models. Hence, we discuss the issue of the underlying preferences in DEA models for measuring the performance of nations at the Olympic Games, and then propose new DEA models with Lexicographic preference to measure the performance of the nations.     

Ranking of countries in sporting events using two-stage data envelopment analysis models: a case of Summer Olympic Games 2016

After important sport events as the Summer Olympic Games (SOG) are, the participating countries are ranked according to the number of gold, silver and bronze medals. A lexicographic ranking is usually applied in official reports which leads to higher ranking of countries with one gold and no other medals comparing to countries without any gold but with several silver or bronze medals. Moreover, this ranking does not take into account the specific conditions of the countries (population, economic strength measured by gross domestic product and tradition in sports). The aim of the paper is not only to evaluate the absolute achievements of the countries but evaluate their performance with respect to the resources they can spent. A two-stage data envelopment analysis model is formulated and solved by an original slack-based measure procedure. The first stage evaluates the performance of the countries in training of athletes and the second stage evaluates the achievements of the nominated athletes. The models with variable returns to scale and weight restrictions are applied. The models and their results are illustrated on the case of Olympic Games 2016 and compared with results given by traditional approaches.     

Optimum control of bobsled steering

Minimum-time and smooth-steering control algorithms are developed for bobsled optimal control. Numerical solutions are obtained both for one-curve optimal control and whole-course piecewise optimal control with application to realistic three-dimensional track surface shapes. Specific results are calculated for the Lillehammer Olympic Track.     

The medal points’ incenter for rankings in sport

This work addresses the issue of finding a system of points for medals in Olympic ranking and scoring systems in sport. The incenter of a convex cone is used to obtain this system. The work deals also with the scoring systems. In applications, we present a ranking of countries in the 2010 Olympic Games and a ranking of drivers in the 2011 Formula One World Championship.     

第29届奥运会中外男篮技术成绩统计分析

本文对第29届奥运会中国男篮同相遇对手的技术成绩指标,进行了相关性、偏相关、回归分析等多元统计分析,通过回归方程找出影响总得分的主要因素,利用多因变量的线性模型对29届中国队与对手整体上进行比较,并对中国队在28、29两届上进行了整体的比较。结果显示:29届奥运会上中国队和对手在整体水平上有一定的差异;和28届相比,中国队前后差异不大,说明中国男篮进步幅度不是太大。