Empirical Likelihood Inference Under Stratified Random Sampling in the Presence of Measurement Error

Suppose that several different imperfect instruments and one perfect instrument are used independently to measure some characteristic of a population. In order to make full use of the sample information, in this paper the empirical likelihood method is put forward for making inferences on parameters of interest under stratified random sampling in the presence of measurement error, Our results show that it can lead to estimators which are asymptotically normal and utilize all the available sample information. We also obtain the asymptotic distribution of empirical likelihood testing statistics. In particular, we apply the method to obtain estimator and confidence interval of population mean.     

Optimal subsampling for large-scale quantile regression

To deal with massive data sets, subsampling is known as an effective method which can significantly reduce computational costs in estimating model parameters. In this article, an efficient subsampling method is developed for large-scale quantile regression via Poisson sampling framework, which can solve the memory constraint problem imposed by big data. Under some mild conditions, large sample properties for the estimator involving the weak and strong consistencies, and asymptotic normality are established. Furthermore, the optimal subsampling probabilities are derived according to the A-optimality criterion. It is shown that the estimator based on the optimal subsampling asymptotically achieves a smaller variance than that by the uniform random subsampling. The proposed method is illustrated and evaluated through numerical analyses on both simulated and real data sets.     

Partial functional linear quantile regression

This paper studies estimation in partial functional linear quantile regression in which the dependent variable is related to both a vector of finite length and a function-valued random variable as predictor variables. The slope function is estimated by the functional principal component basis. The asymptotic distribution of the estimator of the vector of slope parameters is derived and the global convergence rate of the quantile estimator of unknown slope function is established under suitable norm. It is showed that this rate is optimal in a minimax sense under some smoothness assumptions on the covariance kernel of the covariate and the slope function. The convergence rate of the mean squared prediction error for the proposed estimators is also be established. Finite sample properties of our procedures are studied through Monte Carlo simulations. A real data example about Berkeley growth data is used to illustrate our proposed methodology.     

Bounds on entanglement dimensions and quantum graph parameters via noncommutative polynomial optimization

This paper studies the matrix completion problem under arbitrary sampling schemes. We propose a new estimator incorporating both max-norm and nuclear-norm regularization, based on which we can conduct efficient low-rank matrix recovery using a random subset of entries observed with additive noise under general non-uniform and unknown sampling distributions. This method significantly relaxes the uniform sampling assumption imposed for the widely used nuclear-norm penalized approach, and makes low-rank matrix recovery feasible in more practical settings. Theoretically, we prove that the proposed estimator achieves fast rates of convergence under different settings. Computationally, we propose an alternating direction method of multipliers algorithm to efficiently compute the estimator, which bridges a gap between theory and practice of machine learning methods with max-norm regularization. Further, we provide thorough numerical studies to evaluate the proposed method using both simulated and real datasets.     

小样本下相关系数的检验与区间估计——基于Bootstrap的研究

本文首先介绍了样本相关系数的计算公式以及在联合正态分布下的假设检验和区间估计方法,同时指出了其对样本的要求,然后就小样本下相关系数的区间估计和假设检验问题给出了基于bootstrap方法的解决途径,分析表明bootstrap方法非常适合用于未知总体分布形态小样本下的区间估计与假设检验。     

Case-cohort analysis with general additive-multiplicative hazard models

The case-cohort design is widely used in large epidemiological studies and prevention trials for cost reduction. In such a design, covariates are assembled only for a subcohort which is a random subset of the entire cohort and any additional cases outside the subcohort. In this paper, we discuss the case-cohort analysis with a class of general additive-multiplicative hazard models which includes the commonly used Cox model and additive hazard model as special cases. Two sampling schemes for the subcohort, Bernoulli sampling with arbitrary selection probabilities and stratified simple random sampling with fixed subcohort sizes, are discussed. In each setting, an estimating function is constructed to estimate the regression parameters. The resulting estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. The limiting variance-covariance matrix can be consistently estimated by the case-cohort data. A simulation study is conducted to assess the finite sample performances of the proposed method and a real example is provided.     

Nonparametric estimation of compound distributions with applications in insurance

A nonparametric estimator of the distribution functionG of a random sum of independent identically distributed random variables, with distribution functionF, is proposed in the case where the distribution of the number of summands is known and a random sample fromF is available. This estimator is found by evaluating the functional that mapsF ontoG at the empirical distribution function based on the random sample. Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the resulting estimator in a suitable function space are established using appropriate continuity and differentiability results for the functional. Bootstrap confidence bands are also obtained. Applications to the aggregate claims distribution function and to the probability of ruin in the Poisson risk model are presented.     

不同先验分布下的后验分布确定土力学参数

岩土工程中各土层参数的取值是根据现场及室内试验数据,采用经典统计学方法进行确定的,但这往往忽略了先验信息的作用。与经典统计学方法不同的是,Bayes法能从考虑先验分布的角度结合样本分布去推导后验分布,为岩土参数的取值提供一种新的分析方法。岩土工程勘察可视为对总体地层的随机抽样,当抽样完成时,样本分布密度函数是确定的,故Bayes法中的后验分布取决于先验分布,因此推导出两套不同的先验分布:利用先验信息确定先验分布及共轭先验分布。通过对先验及后验分布中超参数的计算,当样本总体符合N(μ,σ2)正态分布时,对所要研究的未知参数μ和σ展开分析,综合对比不同先验分布下后验分布的区间长度,给出岩土参数Bayes推断中最佳后验分布所要选择的先验分布。结果表明:共轭情况下的后验分布总是比无信息情况下的后验区间短,概率密度函数分布更集中,取值更方便。在正态总体情形下,根据未知参数μ和σ的联合后验分布求极值方法,确定样本总体中最大概率均值μ_max和方差σ_max作为工程设计采用值,为岩土参数取值方法提供了一条新的路径,有较好的工程意义。     

几何分布截尾样本场合步进应力加速寿命试验TFR模型下的统计分析

讨论了几何分布产品在步进应力加速试验TFR模型下寿命分布.给出了其寿命分布函数步进形式,在截尾样本场合利用极大似然估计方法和拟矩估计方法求出了未知参数的点估计,最后利用计算机模拟考察了说明本文方法的可行性.     

On valuing and hedging European options when volatility is estimated directly

We quantify the effects on contingent claim valuation of using an estimator for the unknown volatility σ of a geometric Brownian motion (GBM) process. The theme of the paper is to show what difficulties can arise when failing to account for estimation risk. Our narrative uses a direct estimator of volatility based on the sample standard deviation of increments of the underlying Brownian motion. After replacing the direct estimator into the GBM, we derive the resulting distribution function of the approximated GBM for any time point. This allows us to present post-estimation distributions and valuation formulae for an assortment of European contingent claims that are in accord with many of the basic properties of the underlying risk-neutral process, and yet better reflect the additional uncertainties and risks that exist in the Black-Scholes-Merton paradigm.     

几何分布产品全样本场合步进应力加速寿命试验TFR模型下的统计分析

讨论了几何分布产品在步进应力加速试验TFR模型下寿命分布.给出了其寿命分布函数步进形式,在全样本场合利用极大似然估计方法和矩估计方法求出了未知参数的点估计,最后利用计算机模拟说明本文方法的可行性.     

Stratification and sample size of data sources for agricultural mathematical programming models

A comparison is made between the variance of the estimator of the total of a variable obtained from both a simple and a stratified random sampling, in which the sample sizes of some strata are equal to the stratum population size.It is shown that in this case, the advantage of the stratified sample could depend on the sample size. The paper presents inequalities that determine, as a function of the sample size, when the variance of the estimator obtained with simple sampling is lower than the variance obtained with the stratified sampling. The results give insight in order to prevent overstratification.     

On the efficiency of a testimator for the mean of an inverse Gaussian distribution

Though the sample mean is a natural estimator for the mean μ of an Inverse Gaussian (IG) distribution having another parameter λ, when a guess μ₀ for μ seems plausible, an alternative adaptive estimator which shrinks towards μ₀ when a preliminary test for H₀:μ = μ₀ is tenable or else towards , is considered a suitable competitor. Certain numerical illustrations are presented showing higher efficiency of such a testimator over in several situations when the sample size is small and λ is either known or unknown.     

删失截断情形下失效率变点模型的Bayes参数估计

通过添加部分缺失寿命变量数据,得到了删失截断情形下失效率变点模型相对简单的似然函数.讨论了所添加缺失数据变量的概率分布和随机抽样方法.利用Monte Carlo EM算法对未知参数进行了迭代.结合Metropolis-Hastings算法对参数的满条件分布进行了Gibbs抽样,基于Gibbs样本对参数进行估计,详细介绍了MCMC方法的实施步骤.随机模拟试验的结果表明各参数Bayes估计的精度较高.     

参数的变换矩估计方法

概率积分变换是统计分析中一个重要方法，它在拟合优度检验中得到了良好的应用．本文将这一思想应用于参数估计问题，提出一般参数估计的变换矩方法研究表明，这种方法既有较高的效率，又有良好的稳健性．文中证明了变换矩估计的存在性，相合性和渐近正态性，同时给出了影响函数和崩溃点，并具体分析了几个常见分布族的结果．     

Estimating nonlinear regression with and without change-points by the LAD method

The paper considers the least absolute deviations estimator in a nonlinear parametric regression. The interest of the LAD method is its robustness with respect to other traditional methods when the errors of model contain outliers. First, in the absence of change-points, the convergence rate of estimated parameters is found. For a model with change-points, in the case when the number of jumps is known, the convergence rate and the asymptotic distribution of estimators are obtained. Particularly, it is shown that the change-points estimator converges weakly to the minimizer of given random process. Next, when the number of jumps is unknown, its consistent estimator is proposed, via the modified Schwarz criterion.     

Estimation of parameters in a two-parameter exponential distribution using ranked set sample

In situations where the experimental or sampling units in a study can be easily ranked than quantified, McIntyre (1952,Aust. J. Agric. Res.,3, 385–390) proposed that the mean ofn units based on aranked set sample (RSS) be used to estimate the population mean, and observed that it provides an unbiased estimator with a smaller variance compared to a simple random sample (SRS) of the same sizen. McIntyre's concept ofRSS is essentially nonparametric in nature in that the underlying population distribution is assumed to be completely unknown. In this paper we further explore the concept ofRSS when the population is partially known and the parameter of interest is not necessarily the mean. To be specific, we address the problem of estimation of the parameters of a two-parameter exponential distribution. It turns out that the use ofRSS and its suitable modifications results in much improved estimators compared to the use of aSRS.     

Inference on a distribution function from ranked set samples

Consider independent observations \((X_i,R_i)\) with random or fixed ranks \(R_i\), while conditional on \(R_i\), the random variable \(X_i\) has the same distribution as the \(R_i\)-th order statistic within a random sample of size k from an unknown distribution function F. Such observation schemes are well known from ranked set sampling and judgment post-stratification. Within a general, not necessarily balanced setting we derive and compare the asymptotic distributions of three different estimators of the distribution function F: a stratified estimator, a nonparametric maximum-likelihood estimator and a moment-based estimator. Our functional central limit theorems generalize and refine previous asymptotic analyses. In addition, we discuss briefly pointwise and simultaneous confidence intervals for the distribution function with guaranteed coverage probability for finite sample sizes. The methods are illustrated with a real data example, and the potential impact of imperfect rankings is investigated in a small simulation experiment.