Cokriging for spatial functional data

This work proposes to generalize the method of kriging when data are spatially sampled curves. A spatial functional linear model is constructed including spatial dependencies between curves. Under some regularity conditions of the curves, an ordinary kriging system is established in the infinite dimensional case. From a practical point-of-view, the decomposition of the curves into a functional basis boils down the problem of kriging in infinite dimension to a standard cokriging on basis coefficients. The methodological developments are illustrated with temperature profiles sampled with dives of elephant seals in the Antarctic Ocean. The projection of sampled profiles into a Legendre polynomial basis is performed with a regularization procedure based on spline smoothing which uses the variance of the sampling devices in order to estimate coefficients by quadrature.     

Asymptotic distribution of the OLS estimator for a purely autoregressive spatial model

We derive the asymptotics of the OLS estimator for a purely autoregressive spatial model. Only low-level conditions are used. As the sample size increases, the spatial matrix is assumed to approach a square-integrable function on the square (0,1)². The asymptotic distribution is a ratio of two infinite linear combinations of χ² variables. The formula involves eigenvalues of an integral operator associated with the function approached by the spatial matrices. Under the conditions imposed identification conditions for the maximum likelihood method and method of moments fail. A corrective two-step procedure using the OLS estimator is proposed.     

On unit roots for spatial autoregressive models

In this paper we consider the unit root problem for one rather simple autoregressive model Y_t,s=aY_t-1,s+bY_t,s-1+?_t,s on a two-dimensional lattice. We show that the growth of variance of Y_t,s is essentially different from corresponding growth in the unit root case for AR(1) or AR(2) time series models. We also show that the dimension of the lattice plays an important role: the growth of variance of autoregressive field on a d-dimensional lattice is different for d=2,3 and d≥4.     

Approximating posterior probabilities in a linear model with possibly noninvertible moving average errors

The method of Laplace is used to approximate posterior probabilities for a collection of polynomial regression models when the errors follow a process with a noninvertible moving average component. These results are useful in the problem of period-change analysis of variable stars and in assessing the posterior probability that a time series with trend has been overdifferenced. The nonstandard covariance structure induced by a noninvertible moving average process can invalidate the standard Laplace method. A number of analytical tools is used to produce corrected Laplace approximations. These tools include viewing the covariance matrix of the observations as tending to a differential operator. The use of such an operator and its Green's function provides a convenient and systematic method of asymptotically inverting the covariance matrix.In certain cases there are two different Laplace approximations, and the appropriate one to use depends upon unknown parameters. This problem is dealt with by using a weighted geometric mean of the candidate approximations, where the weights are completely data-based and such that, asymptotically, the correct approximation is used. The new methodology is applied to an analysis of the prototypical long-period variable star known as Mira.     

Asymptotic confidence intervals for Poisson regression

Let (X,Y) be a R^d×N₀-valued random vector where the conditional distribution of Y given X=x is a Poisson distribution with mean m(x). We estimate m by a local polynomial kernel estimate defined by maximizing a localized log-likelihood function. We use this estimate of m(x) to estimate the conditional distribution of Y given X=x by a corresponding Poisson distribution and to construct confidence intervals of level α of Y given X=x. Under mild regularity conditions on m(x) and on the distribution of X we show strong convergence of the integrated L₁ distance between Poisson distribution and its estimate. We also demonstrate that the corresponding confidence interval has asymptotically (i.e., for sample size tending to infinity) level α, and that the probability that the length of this confidence interval deviates from the optimal length by more than one converges to zero with the number of samples tending to infinity.     

Selfdecomposability of moving average fractional Lévy processes

We study the relationships between the selfdecomposability of marginal distributions or finite dimensional distributions of moving average fractional Lévy processes and distributions of their driving Lévy processes.     

Difference based ridge and Liu type estimators in semiparametric regression models

We consider a difference based ridge regression estimator and a Liu type estimator of the regression parameters in the partial linear semiparametric regression model, y=Xβ+f+ε. Both estimators are analyzed and compared in the sense of mean-squared error. We consider the case of independent errors with equal variance and give conditions under which the proposed estimators are superior to the unbiased difference based estimation technique. We extend the results to account for heteroscedasticity and autocovariance in the error terms. Finally, we illustrate the performance of these estimators with an application to the determinants of electricity consumption in Germany.     

Estimation in generalized linear models for functional data via penalized likelihood

We analyze in a regression setting the link between a scalar response and a functional predictor by means of a Functional Generalized Linear Model. We first give a theoretical framework and then discuss identifiability of the model. The functional coefficient of the model is estimated via penalized likelihood with spline approximation. The L² rate of convergence of this estimator is given under smoothness assumption on the functional coefficient. Heuristic arguments show how these rates may be improved for some particular frameworks.     

Triviality of the peripheral point spectrum

If T_t = e^Zt is a positive one-parameter contraction semigroup acting on l^p(X) where X is a countable set and 1 ≤ p < ∞, then the peripheral point spectrum P of Z cannot contain any non-zero elements. The same holds for Feller semigroups acting on L^p(X) if X is locally compact.     

Propagation-Separation Approach for Local Likelihood Estimation

The paper presents a unified approach to local likelihood estimation for a broad class of nonparametric models, including e.g. the regression, density, Poisson and binary response model. The method extends the adaptive weights smoothing (AWS) procedure introduced in Polzehl and Spokoiny (2000) in context of image denoising. The main idea of the method is to describe a greatest possible local neighborhood of every design point X_i in which the local parametric assumption is justified by the data. The method is especially powerful for model functions having large homogeneous regions and sharp discontinuities. The performance of the proposed procedure is illustrated by numerical examples for density estimation and classification. We also establish some remarkable theoretical nonasymptotic results on properties of the new algorithm. This includes the ``propagation' property which particularly yields the root-n consistency of the resulting estimate in the homogeneous case. We also state an ``oracle' result which implies rate optimality of the estimate under usual smoothness conditions and a ``separation' result which explains the sensitivity of the method to structural changes.     

Functional canonical analysis for square integrable stochastic processes

We study the extension of canonical correlation from pairs of random vectors to the case where a data sample consists of pairs of square integrable stochastic processes. Basic questions concerning the definition and existence of functional canonical correlation are addressed and sufficient criteria for the existence of functional canonical correlation are presented. Various properties of functional canonical analysis are discussed. We consider a canonical decomposition, in which the original processes are approximated by means of their canonical components.     

Spline approximant in Hilbertian subspaces ofC(Ω)

Summary In this paper we give a new approach of approximation by spline functions. We define and study approximant spline functions which can be easly calculated without solving a linear system. We investigate also the error in using approximant spline functions.     

Efficient algorithms for robust generalized cross-validation spline smoothing

Generalized cross-validation (GCV) is a widely used parameter selection criterion for spline smoothing, but it can give poor results if the sample size n is not sufficiently large. An effective way to overcome this is to use the more stable criterion called robust GCV (RGCV). The main computational effort for the evaluation of the GCV score is the trace of the smoothing matrix, , while the RGCV score requires both and . Since 1985, there has been an efficient O(n) algorithm to compute . This paper develops two pairs of new O(n) algorithms to compute and , which allow the RGCV score to be calculated efficiently. The algorithms involve the differentiation of certain matrix functionals using banded Cholesky decomposition.     

A comparative study of Gaussian geostatistical models and Gaussian Markov random field models

Gaussian geostatistical models (GGMs) and Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRFs) are two distinct approaches commonly used in spatial models for modeling point-referenced and areal data, respectively. In this paper, the relations between GGMs and GMRFs are explored based on approximations of GMRFs by GGMs, and approximations of GGMs by GMRFs. Two new metrics of approximation are proposed : (i) the Kullback-Leibler discrepancy of spectral densities and (ii) the chi-squared distance between spectral densities. The distances between the spectral density functions of GGMs and GMRFs measured by these metrics are minimized to obtain the approximations of GGMs and GMRFs. The proposed methodologies are validated through several empirical studies. We compare the performance of our approach to other methods based on covariance functions, in terms of the average mean squared prediction error and also the computational time. A spatial analysis of a dataset on PM_2.5 collected in California is presented to illustrate the proposed method.     

Nonparametric and semiparametric optimal transformations of markers

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of a likelihood-ratio function has been shown to be the highest among all transformations of continuous markers. For any sampling scheme with the same likelihoods, the induced conditional probability is derived to have the same ROC curve and is found to be more useful for inference purposes. To compromise the difficult task of high-dimensionality in fully nonparametric models and the risk of model misspecification in fully parametric ones, an appealing single-index model is also adopted in our optimization problem. Based on a nonparametric estimator of the area under the ROC curve (AUC), we develop its related inferences and provide some simple and easily checked conditions for the validity of asymptotic results. Since the optimal marker is estimated by using a semiparametric or nonparametric model, conventional theoretical approaches might be inappropriate to some circumstances. The applicability of our procedures are further demonstrated through extensive numerical experiments and data from the studies of Pima-Indian diabetes and liver disorders.     

On the Monte Carlo simulation of BSDEs: An improvement on the Malliavin weights

We propose a generic framework for the analysis of Monte Carlo simulation schemes of backward SDEs. The general results are used to re-visit the convergence of the algorithm suggested by Bouchard and Touzi (2004) [6]. By keeping the higher order terms in the expansion of the Skorohod integrals resulting from the Malliavin integration by parts in [6], we introduce a variant of the latter algorithm which allows for a significant reduction of the numerical complexity. We prove the convergence of this improved Malliavin-based algorithm, and derive a bound on the induced error. In particular, we show that the price to pay for our simplification is to use a more accurate localizing function.     

Tridiagonal implicit method to evaluate European and American options under infinite activity Lévy models

We propose an efficient implicit method to evaluate European and American options when the underlying asset follows an infinite activity Lévy model. Since the Lévy measure of the infinite activity model has the singularity at the origin, we approximate infinitely many small jumps by samples of a diffusion. The proposed methods to solve partial integro–differential equations for European options and linear complementarity problems for American options via an operator splitting method involve solving linear systems with tridiagonal matrices and so can significantly reduce the computations associated with the discrete integral operators. The numerical experiments verify that the proposed method has the second-order convergence rate under an infinite activity Lévy model.     

Rates of convergence for partitioning and nearest neighbor regression estimates with unbounded data

Estimation of regression functions from independent and identically distributed data is considered. The L₂ error with integration with respect to the design measure is used as an error criterion. Usually in the analysis of the rate of convergence of estimates besides smoothness assumptions on the regression function and moment conditions on Y also boundedness assumptions on X are made. In this article we consider partitioning and nearest neighbor estimates and show that by replacing the boundedness assumption on X by a proper moment condition the same rate of convergence can be shown as for bounded data.     

Bilateral gamma distributions and processes in financial mathematics

We present a class of Lévy processes for modelling financial market fluctuations: bilateral Gamma processes. Our starting point is to explore the properties of bilateral Gamma distributions, and then we turn to their associated Lévy processes. We treat exponential Lévy stock models with an underlying bilateral Gamma process as well as term structure models driven by bilateral Gamma processes, and apply our results to a set of real financial data (DAX 1996–1998).     

An estimator for the quadratic covariation of asynchronously observed Itô processes with noise: Asymptotic distribution theory

The article is devoted to the nonparametric estimation of the quadratic covariation of non-synchronously observed Itô processes in an additive microstructure noise model. In a high-frequency setting, we aim at establishing an asymptotic distribution theory for a generalized multiscale estimator including a feasible central limit theorem with optimal convergence rate on convenient regularity assumptions. The inevitably remaining impact of asynchronous deterministic sampling schemes and noise corruption on the asymptotic distribution is precisely elucidated. A case study for various important examples, several generalizations of the model and an algorithm for the implementation warrant the utility of the estimation method in applications.