Estimating the support of multivariate densities under measurement error

We consider the problem of estimating the support of a multivariate density based on contaminated data. We introduce an estimator, which achieves consistency under weak conditions on the target density and its support, respecting the assumption of a known error density. Especially, no smoothness or sharpness assumptions are needed for the target density. Furthermore, we derive an iterative and easily computable modification of our estimation and study its rates of convergence in a special case; a numerical simulation is given.     

Estimating the error distribution in nonparametric multiple regression with applications to model testing

In this paper we consider the estimation of the error distribution in a heteroscedastic nonparametric regression model with multivariate covariates. As estimator we consider the empirical distribution function of residuals, which are obtained from multivariate local polynomial fits of the regression and variance functions, respectively. Weak convergence of the empirical residual process to a Gaussian process is proved. We also consider various applications for testing model assumptions in nonparametric multiple regression. The model tests obtained are able to detect local alternatives that converge to zero at an n^−1/2-rate, independent of the covariate dimension. We consider in detail a test for additivity of the regression function.     

Boundary kernels for adaptive density estimators on regions with irregular boundaries

In some applications of kernel density estimation the data may have a highly non-uniform distribution and be confined to a compact region. Standard fixed bandwidth density estimates can struggle to cope with the spatially variable smoothing requirements, and will be subject to excessive bias at the boundary of the region. While adaptive kernel estimators can address the first of these issues, the study of boundary kernel methods has been restricted to the fixed bandwidth context. We propose a new linear boundary kernel which reduces the asymptotic order of the bias of an adaptive density estimator at the boundary, and is simple to implement even on an irregular boundary. The properties of this adaptive boundary kernel are examined theoretically. In particular, we demonstrate that the asymptotic performance of the density estimator is maintained when the adaptive bandwidth is defined in terms of a pilot estimate rather than the true underlying density. We examine the performance for finite sample sizes numerically through analysis of simulated and real data sets.     

Estimating the inter-arrival time density of Markov renewal processes under structural assumptions on the transition distribution

We consider a stationary Markov renewal process whose inter-arrival time density depends multiplicatively on the distance between the past and present state of the embedded chain. This is appropriate when the jump size is governed by influences that accumulate over time. Then we can construct an estimator for the inter-arrival time density that has the parametric rate of convergence. The estimator is a local von Mises statistic. The result carries over to the corresponding semi-Markov process.     

Propagation-Separation Approach for Local Likelihood Estimation

The paper presents a unified approach to local likelihood estimation for a broad class of nonparametric models, including e.g. the regression, density, Poisson and binary response model. The method extends the adaptive weights smoothing (AWS) procedure introduced in Polzehl and Spokoiny (2000) in context of image denoising. The main idea of the method is to describe a greatest possible local neighborhood of every design point X_i in which the local parametric assumption is justified by the data. The method is especially powerful for model functions having large homogeneous regions and sharp discontinuities. The performance of the proposed procedure is illustrated by numerical examples for density estimation and classification. We also establish some remarkable theoretical nonasymptotic results on properties of the new algorithm. This includes the ``propagation' property which particularly yields the root-n consistency of the resulting estimate in the homogeneous case. We also state an ``oracle' result which implies rate optimality of the estimate under usual smoothness conditions and a ``separation' result which explains the sensitivity of the method to structural changes.     

Nonlinear weighted least squares estimation of a three-parameter Weibull density with a nonparametric start

This paper is concerned with the parameter estimation problem for the three-parameter Weibull density which is widely employed as a model in reliability and lifetime studies. Our approach is a combination of nonparametric and parametric methods. The basic idea is to start with an initial nonparametric density estimate which needs to be as good as possible, and then apply the nonlinear least squares method to estimate the unknown parameters. As a main result, a theorem on the existence of the least squares estimate is obtained. Some simulations are given to show that our approach is satisfactory if the initial density is of good enough quality.     

Bayesian shrinkage prediction for the regression problem

We consider Bayesian shrinkage predictions for the Normal regression problem under the frequentist Kullback-Leibler risk function.Firstly, we consider the multivariate Normal model with an unknown mean and a known covariance. While the unknown mean is fixed, the covariance of future samples can be different from that of training samples. We show that the Bayesian predictive distribution based on the uniform prior is dominated by that based on a class of priors if the prior distributions for the covariance and future covariance matrices are rotation invariant.Then, we consider a class of priors for the mean parameters depending on the future covariance matrix. With such a prior, we can construct a Bayesian predictive distribution dominating that based on the uniform prior.Lastly, applying this result to the prediction of response variables in the Normal linear regression model, we show that there exists a Bayesian predictive distribution dominating that based on the uniform prior. Minimaxity of these Bayesian predictions follows from these results.     

Strong convergence in nonparametric regression with truncated dependent data

In this paper we derive rates of uniform strong convergence for the kernel estimator of the regression function in a left-truncation model. It is assumed that the lifetime observations with multivariate covariates form a stationary α-mixing sequence. The estimation of the covariate’s density is considered as well. Under the assumption that the lifetime observations are bounded, we show that, by an appropriate choice of the bandwidth, both estimators of the covariate’s density and regression function attain the optimal strong convergence rate known from independent complete samples.     

Density testing in a contaminated sample

We study non-parametric tests for checking parametric hypotheses about a multivariate density f of independent identically distributed random vectors Z₁,Z₂,… which are observed under additional noise with density ψ. The tests we propose are an extension of the test due to Bickel and Rosenblatt [On some global measures of the deviations of density function estimates, Ann. Statist. 1 (1973) 1071-1095] and are based on a comparison of a nonparametric deconvolution estimator and the smoothed version of a parametric fit of the density f of the variables of interest Z_i. In an example the loss of efficiency is highlighted when the test is based on the convolved (but observable) density g=f*ψ instead on the initial density of interest f.     

Corrected version of AIC for selecting multivariate normal linear regression models in a general nonnormal case

This paper deals with the bias reduction of Akaike information criterion (AIC) for selecting variables in multivariate normal linear regression models when the true distribution of observation is an unknown nonnormal distribution. We propose a corrected version of AIC which is partially constructed by the jackknife method and is adjusted to the exact unbiased estimator of the risk when the candidate model includes the true model. It is pointed out that the influence of nonnormality in the bias of our criterion is smaller than the ones in AIC and TIC. We verify that our criterion is better than the AIC, TIC and EIC by conducting numerical experiments.     

Asymptotic normality and Berry-Esseen results for conditional density estimator with censored and dependent data

In this paper we derive the asymptotic normality and a Berry-Esseen type bound for the kernel conditional density estimator proposed in Ould-Saïd and Cai (2005) [26] when the censored observations with multivariate covariates form a stationary α-mixing sequence.     

Log-linear Poisson autoregression

We consider a log-linear model for time series of counts. This type of model provides a framework where both negative and positive association can be taken into account. In addition time dependent covariates are accommodated in a straightforward way. We study its probabilistic properties and maximum likelihood estimation. It is shown that a perturbed version of the process is geometrically ergodic, and, under some conditions, it approaches the non-perturbed version. In addition, it is proved that the maximum likelihood estimator of the vector of unknown parameters is asymptotically normal with a covariance matrix that can be consistently estimated. The results are based on minimal assumptions and can be extended to the case of log-linear regression with continuous exogenous variables. The theory is applied to aggregated financial transaction time series. In particular, we discover positive association between the number of transactions and the volatility process of a certain stock.     

Estimation of the regression operator from functional fixed-design with correlated errors

We consider the estimation of the regression operator r in the functional model: Y=r(x)+ε, where the explanatory variable x is of functional fixed-design type, the response Y is a real random variable and the error process ε is a second order stationary process. We construct the kernel type estimate of r from functional data curves and correlated errors. Then we study their performances in terms of the mean square convergence and the convergence in probability. In particular, we consider the cases of short and long range error processes. When the errors are negatively correlated or come from a short memory process, the asymptotic normality of this estimate is derived. Finally, some simulation studies are conducted for a fractional autoregressive integrated moving average and for an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck error processes.     

Nonparametric likelihood based estimation for a multivariate Lipschitz density

We consider a problem of nonparametric density estimation under shape restrictions. We deal with the case where the density belongs to a class of Lipschitz functions. Devroye [L. Devroye, A Course in Density Estimation, in: Progress in Probability and Statistics, vol. 14, Birkhäuser Boston Inc., Boston, MA, 1987] considered these classes of estimates as tailor-made estimates, in contrast in some way to universally consistent estimates. In our framework we get the existence and uniqueness of the maximum likelihood estimate as well as strong consistency. This NPMLE can be easily characterized but it is not easy to compute. Some simpler approximations are also considered.     

Empirical Bayes predictive densities for high-dimensional normal models

This paper addresses the problem of estimating the density of a future outcome from a multivariate normal model. We propose a class of empirical Bayes predictive densities and evaluate their performances under the Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence. We show that these empirical Bayes predictive densities dominate the Bayesian predictive density under the uniform prior and thus are minimax under some general conditions. We also establish the asymptotic optimality of these empirical Bayes predictive densities in infinite-dimensional parameter spaces through an oracle inequality.     

An adaptive estimation of MAVE

Minimum average variance estimation (MAVE, Xia et al. (2002) [29]) is an effective dimension reduction method. It requires no strong probabilistic assumptions on the predictors, and can consistently estimate the central mean subspace. It is applicable to a wide range of models, including time series. However, the least squares criterion used in MAVE will lose its efficiency when the error is not normally distributed. In this article, we propose an adaptive MAVE which can be adaptive to different error distributions. We show that the proposed estimate has the same convergence rate as the original MAVE. An EM algorithm is proposed to implement the new adaptive MAVE. Using both simulation studies and a real data analysis, we demonstrate the superior finite sample performance of the proposed approach over the existing least squares based MAVE when the error distribution is non-normal and the comparable performance when the error is normal.     

A semiparametric density estimator based on elliptical distributions

In the paper we study a semiparametric density estimation method based on the model of an elliptical distribution. The method considered here shows a way to overcome problems arising from the curse of dimensionality. The optimal rate of the uniform strong convergence of the estimator under consideration coincides with the optimal rate for the usual one-dimensional kernel density estimator except in a neighbourhood of the mean. Therefore the optimal rate does not depend on the dimension. Moreover, asymptotic normality of the estimator is proved.     

Efficient estimation in conditional single-index regression

Semiparametric single-index regression involves an unknown finite-dimensional parameter and an unknown (link) function. We consider estimation of the parameter via the pseudo-maximum likelihood method. For this purpose we estimate the conditional density of the response given a candidate index and maximize the obtained likelihood. We show that this technique of adaptation yields an asymptotically efficient estimator: it has minimal variance among all estimators.     

Estimation for stochastic damping hamiltonian systems under partial observation—I. Invariant density

In this paper, we study the non-parametric estimation of the invariant density of some ergodic hamiltonian systems, using kernel estimators. The main result is a central limit theorem for such estimators under partial observation (only the positions are observed). The main tools are mixing estimates and refined covariance inequalities, the main difficulty being the strong degeneracy of such processes. This is the first paper of a series of at least two, devoted to the estimation of the characteristics of such processes: invariant density, drift term, volatility.     

A likelihood ratio test for separability of covariances

We propose a formal test of separability of covariance models based on a likelihood ratio statistic. The test is developed in the context of multivariate repeated measures (for example, several variables measured at multiple times on many subjects), but can also apply to a replicated spatio-temporal process and to problems in meteorology, where horizontal and vertical covariances are often assumed to be separable. Separable models are a common way to model spatio-temporal covariances because of the computational benefits resulting from the joint space-time covariance being factored into the product of a covariance function that depends only on space and a covariance function that depends only on time. We show that when the null hypothesis of separability holds, the distribution of the test statistic does not depend on the type of separable model. Thus, it is possible to develop reference distributions of the test statistic under the null hypothesis. These distributions are used to evaluate the power of the test for certain nonseparable models. The test does not require second-order stationarity, isotropy, or specification of a covariance model. We apply the test to a multivariate repeated measures problem.