Empirical likelihood estimation of discretely sampled processes of OU type

This paper presents an empirical likelihood estimation procedure for parameters of the discretely sampled process of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type. The proposed procedure is based on the condi- tional characteristic function, and the maximum empirical likelihood estimator is proved to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Moreover, this estimator is shown to be asymptotically efficient under some mild conditions. When the background driving Lévy process is of type A or B, we show that the intensity parameter c...     

Extreme value estimation for discretely sampled continuous processes

In environmental applications of extreme value statistics, the underlying stochastic process is often modeled either as a max-stable process in continuous time/space or as a process in the domain of attraction of such a max-stable process. In practice, however, the processes are typically only observed at discrete points and one has to resort to interpolation to fill in the gaps. We discuss the influence of such an interpolation on estimators of marginal parameters as well as estimators of the exponent measure. In particular, natural conditions on the fineness of the observational scheme are developed which ensure that asymptotically the interpolated estimators behave in the same way as the estimators which use fully observed continuous processes.     

Parametric estimation for simple branching diffusion processes, II

Consider a simple branching diffusion process, which is a branching process in which the individuals move and live and die in space. The offspring distribution has finite moments of all orders. A parametric estimation theory is presented, using time slice data. This involves the use of third order cumulant spectra to identify and estimate the parameters.     

Kernel regression estimation for continuous spatial processes

We investigate here a kernel estimate of the spatial regression function r(x) = E(Y _u | X _u = x), x ∈ ℝ^d, of a stationary multidimensional spatial process { Z _u = (X _u, Y _u), u ∈ ℝ ^N }. The weak and strong consistency of the estimate is shown under sufficient conditions on the mixing coefficients and the bandwidth, when the process is observed over a rectangular domain of ℝ^N. Special attention is paid to achieve optimal and suroptimal strong rates of convergence. It is also shown that this suroptimal rate is preserved by using a suitable spatial sampling scheme.      

On least squares estimation for long-memory lattice processes

A flexible class of anisotropic stationary lattice processes with long memory can be defined in terms of a two-way fractional ARIMA (FARIMA) representation. We consider parameter estimation based on minimizing an approximate residual sum of squares. The method can be applied to sampling areas that are not necessarily rectangular. A central limit theorem is derived under general conditions. The method is illustrated by an analysis of satellite data consisting of total column ozone amounts in Europe and the Atlantic respectively.     

Test for parameter change in discretely observed diffusion processes

In this paper, we consider the problem of testing for the parameter change in discretely observed diffusion processes. For a test, we perform the cusum test based on the estimator proposed by Kessler (J Stat 24:211–229, 1997). It is shown that the test statistic weakly converges to the sup of the square of a Browian bridge. Simulation results are illustrated for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross processes.     

Adaptive nonparametric estimation for Lévy processes observed at low frequency

This article deals with adaptive nonparametric estimation for Lévy processes observed at low frequency. For general linear functionals of the Lévy measure, we construct kernel estimators, provide upper risk bounds and derive rates of convergence under regularity assumptions.     

BOOTSTRAP MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF THE PARAMETER IN SPECTRAL DENSITY OF STATIONARY PROCESSES

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Nonparametric estimation and testing time-homogeneity for processes with independent increments

We consider a nonparametric estimation problem for the Lévy measure of time-inhomogeneous process with independent increments. We derive the functional asymptotic normality and efficiency, in an ℓ^∞-space, of generalized Nelson–Aalen estimators. Also we propose some asymptotically distribution free tests for time-homogeneity of the Lévy measure. Our result is a fruit of the empirical process theory and the martingale theory.     

On estimation of the extended Orey index for Gaussian processes

Orey suggested the definition of an index for a Gaussian process with stationary increments which determines various properties of the sample paths of this process. We provide an extension of the definition of the Orey index towards a second-order stochastic process which may not have stationary increments and estimate the Orey index towards a Gaussian process from discrete observations of its sample paths.     

Parametric and Non Homogeneous Semi-Markov Process for HIV Control

In AIDS control, physicians have a growing need to use pragmatically useful and interpretable tools in their daily medical taking care of patients. Semi-Markov process seems to be well adapted to model the evolution of HIV-1 infected patients. In this study, we introduce and define a non homogeneous semi-Markov (NHSM) model in continuous time. Then the problem of finding the equations that describe the biological evolution of patient is studied and the interval transition probabilities are computed. A parametric approach is used and the maximum likelihood estimators of the process are given. A Monte Carlo algorithm is presented for realizing non homogeneous semi-Markov trajectories. As results, interval transition probabilities are computed for distinct times and follow-up has an impact on the evolution of patients.      

Self-adjusting stochastic processes

Let A_t(i, j) be the transition matrix at time t of a process with n states. Such a process may be called self-adjusting if the occurrence of the transition from state h to state k at time t results in a change in the hth row such that A_t+1(h, k) ? A_t(h, k). If the self-adjustment (due to transition h → kx) is A_{t + 1}(h, j) = λA_t(h, j) + (1 ? λ)δ_jk (0 < λ < 1), then with probability 1 the process is eventually periodic. If A₀(i, j) < 1 for all i, j and if the self-adjustment satisfies A_{t + 1}(h, k) = ?(A_t(h, k)) with ?(x) twice differentiable and increasing, x < ?(x) < 1 for 0 ? x < 1,?(1) = ?′(1) = 1, then, with probability 1, lim A_t does not exist.     

The construction of markov processes in random environments and the equivalence theorems

In sec.1, we introduce several basic concepts such as random transition function, p-m process and Markov process in random environment and give some examples to construct a random transition function from a non-homogeneous density function. In sec. 2, we construct the Markov process in random enviromment and skew product Markov process by p -m process and investigate the properties of Markov process in random environment and the original process and environment process and skew product process. In sec. 3, we give several equivalence theorems on Markov process in random environment.     

Asymptotic normality for discretely observed Markov jump processes with an absorbing state

For a continuous-time Markov process, occasionally, only discrete-time observations are available. For a simple sample of homogeneous Markov jump processes with an absorbing state, observed each on a stochastic grid of time points, we establish asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator and close the gap in Kremer and Weißbach (2013). By showing that the solution of the Kolmogorov backward equation system is continuous differentiable, we can apply results for M-estimators.     

Final distribution for Gani epidemic Markov processes

We consider the Kolmogorov equations for the transition probabilities of a three-dimensional Markov process of special form. For a stationary first equation, an exact solution is obtained using the Riemann method. We obtain asymptotics for the expectation and variance of the final distribution and establish a limit theorem.     

Kernel density estimation for linear processes: Asymptotic normality and optimal bandwidth derivation

The problem of estimating the marginal density of a linear process by kernel methods is considered. Under general conditions, kernel density estimators are shown to be asymptotically normal. Their limiting covariance matrix is computed. We also find the optimal bandwidth in the sense that it asymptotically minimizes the mean square error of the estimators. The assumptions involved are easily verifiable.Supported in part by NSF grant DMS-9403718.