Estimating summary functionals in multistate models with an application to hospital infection data

Inhomogeneous Markov chains are a relevant framework for analysing event histories. The fundamental estimator in the presence of incompletely observed data is the Nelson-Aalen estimator of the multivariate cumulative hazards. It may be summarised in terms of probability estimates via the empirical transition matrix. The empirical transition matrix has only slowly entered applications, one reason being previous lack of software. In a number of applications, further summary measures are desired. We illustrate how they may be computed from the empirical transition matrix and why bootstrapping their variance works. In contrast, computing such summaries outside the present framework has typically led to biased results. As an example, we consider in more detail hospital stay following infectious complication. This summary quantity is often considered by clinical decision makers, but reliable estimates require modelling the timing of infection as in the present set-up. In this context, we also derive new summary measures that further distinguish between patients discharged and patients deceased.     

Analysis of two-sample censored data using a semiparametric mixture model

In this article we study a semiparametric mixture model for the two-sample problem with right censored data. The model implies that the densities for the continuous outcomes are related by a parametric tilt but otherwise unspecified. It provides a useful alternative to the Cox （1972） proportional hazards model for the comparison of treatments based on right censored survival data. We propose an iterative algorithm for the semiparametric maximum likelihood estimates of the parametric and nonparametric components of the model. The performance of the proposed method is studied using simulation. We illustrate our method in an application to melanoma.     

Heteroscedastic replicated measurement error models under asymmetric heavy-tailed distributions

We propose a heteroscedastic replicated measurement error model based on the class of scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions, which allows the variances of measurement errors to vary across subjects. We develop EM algorithms to calculate maximum likelihood estimates for the model with or without equation error. An empirical Bayes approach is applied to estimate the true covariate and predict the response. Simulation studies show that the proposed models can provide reliable results and the inference is not unduly affected by outliers and distribution misspecification. The method has also been used to analyze a real data of plant root decomposition.     

Approximate Bayesian shrinkage estimation

A Bayesian shrinkage estimate for the mean in the generalized linear empirical Bayes model is proposed. The posterior mean under the empirical Bayes model has a shrinkage pattern. The shrinkage factor is estimated by using a Bayesian method with the regression coefficients to be fixed at the maximum extended quasi-likelihood estimates. This approach develops a Bayesian shrinkage estimate of the mean which is numerically quite tractable. The method is illustrated with a data set, and the estimate is compared with an earlier one based on an empirical Bayes method. In a special case of the homogeneous model with exchangeable priors, the performance of the Bayesian estimate is illustrated by computer simulations. The simulation result shows as improvement of the Bayesian estimate over the empirical Bayes estimate in some situations.     

Analysis of call centre arrival data using singular value decomposition

We consider the general problem of analysing and modelling call centre arrival data. A method is described for analysing such data using singular value decomposition (SVD). We illustrate that the outcome from the SVD can be used for data visualization, detection of anomalies (outliers), and extraction of significant features from noisy data. The SVD can also be employed as a data reduction tool. Its application usually results in a parsimonious representation of the original data without losing much information. We describe how one can use the reduced data for some further, more formal statistical analysis. For example, a short‐term forecasting model for call volumes is developed, which is multiplicative with a time series component that depends on day of the week. We report empirical results from applying the proposed method to some real data collected at a call centre of a large‐scale U.S. financial organization. Some issues about forecasting call volumes are also discussed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the rate of convergence of the preconditioned conjugate gradient method

Summary We derive new estimates for the rate of convergence of the conjugate gradient method by utilizing isolated eigenvalues of parts of the spectrum. We present a new generalized version of an incomplete factorization method and compare the derived estimates of the number of iterations with the number actually found for some elliptic difference equations and for a similar problem with a model empirical distribution function.     

Empirical likelihood method for quantiles with response data missing at random

Empirical likelihood is a nonparametric method for constructing confidence intervals and tests,notably in enabling the shape of a confidence region determined by the sample data.This paper presents a new version of the empirical likelihood method for quantiles under kernel regression imputation to adapt missing response data.It eliminates the need to solve nonlinear equations,and it is easy to apply.We also consider exponential empirical likelihood as an alternative method.Numerical results are presented to compare our method with others.     

基于双因素利率期限结构模型的国债市场利率行为研究

本引用一种新的计量经济学方法-高斯估计法，通过Gauss语言编程，使用国债市场短期利率数据对双因素连续时间利率期限结构模型进行了参数估计和预测，得出的结果较理想，从而能更好的了解国债市场短期利率行为特点。     

Determination of the Probability Distribution Measures from Market Option Prices Using the Method of Maximum Entropy in the Mean

Abstract

We consider the problem of recovering the risk-neutral probability distribution of the price of an asset, when the information available consists of the market price of derivatives of European type having the asset as underlying. The information available may or may not include the spot value of the asset as data. When we only know the true empirical law of the underlying, our method will provide a measure that is absolutely continuous with respect to the empirical law, thus making our procedure model independent. If we assume that the prices of the derivatives include risk premia and/or transaction prices, using this method it is possible to estimate those values, as well as the no-arbitrage prices. This is of interest not only when the market is not complete, but also if for some reason we do not have information about the model for the price of the underlying.     

A random model approach for the LASSO

The least absolute selection and shrinkage operator (LASSO) is a method of estimation for linear models similar to ridge regression. It shrinks the effect estimates, potentially shrinking some to be identically zero. The amount of shrinkage is governed by a single parameter. Using a random model formulation of the LASSO, this parameter can be specified as the ratio of dispersion parameters. These parameters are estimated using an approximation to the marginal likelihood of the observed data. The observed score equations from the approximation are biased and hence are adjusted by subtracting an empirical estimate of the expected value. After estimation, the model effects can be tested (via simulation) as the distribution of the observed data given that all model effects are zero is known. Two related simulation studies are presented that show that dispersion parameter estimation results in effect estimates that are competitive with other estimation methods (including other LASSO methods).     

Problems with the estimation of stochastic differential equations using structural equations models

The present paper deals with the identification and maximum likelihood estimation of systems of linear stochastic differential equations using panel data. So we only have a sample of discrete observations over time of the relevant variables for each individual. A popular approach in the social sciences advocates the estimation of the “exact discrete model” after a reparameterization with LISREL or similar programs for structural equations models. The “exact discrete model” corresponds to the continuous time model in the sense that observations at equidistant points in time that are generated by the latter system also satisfy the former. In the LISREL approach the reparameterized discrete time model is estimated first without taking into account the nonlinear mapping from the continuous to the discrete time parameters. In a second step, using the inverse mapping, the fundamental system parameters of the continuous time system in which we are interested, are inferred. However, some severe problems arise with this “indirect approach”. First, an identification problem may arise in multiple equation systems, since the matrix exponential function denning some of the new parameters is in general not one‐to‐one, and hence the inverse mapping mentioned above does not exist. Second, usually some sort of approximation of the time paths of the exogenous variables is necessary before the structural parameters of the system can be estimated with discrete data. Two simple approximation methods are discussed. In both approximation methods the resulting new discrete time parameters are connected in a complicated way. So estimating the reparameterized discrete model by OLS without restrictions does not yield maximum likelihood estimates of the desired continuous time parameters as claimed by some authors. Third, a further limitation of estimating the reparameterized model with programs for structural equations models is that even simple restrictions on the original fundamental parameters of the continuous time system cannot be dealt with. This issue is also discussed in some detail. For these reasons the “indirect method” cannot be recommended. In many cases the approach leads to misleading inferences. We strongly advocate the direct estimation of the continuous time parameters. This approach is more involved, because the exact discrete model is nonlinear in the original parameters. A computer program by Hermann Singer that provides appropriate maximum likelihood estimates is described.     

Estimation of Semiparametric Models in the Presence of Endogeneity and Sample Selection

We analyze a semiparametric model for data that suffer from the problems of sample selection, where some of the data are observed for only part of the sample with a probability that depends on a selection equation, and of endogeneity, where a covariate is correlated with the disturbance term. The introduction of nonparametric functions in the model permits great flexibility in the way covariates affect response variables. We present an efficient Bayesian method for the analysis of such models that allows us to consider general systems of outcome variables and endogenous regressors that are continuous, binary, censored, or ordered. Estimation is by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The algorithm we propose does not require simulation of the outcomes that are missing due to the selection mechanism, which reduces the computational load and improves the mixing of the MCMC chain. The approach is applied to a model of women’s labor force participation and log-wage determination. Data and computer code used in this article are available online.     

Empirical likelihood inference for censored median regression model via nonparametric kernel estimation

An alternative to the accelerated failure time model is to regress the median of the failure time on the covariates. In the recent years, censored median regression models have been shown to be useful for analyzing a variety of censored survival data with the robustness property. Based on missing information principle, a semiparametric inference procedure for regression parameter has been developed when censoring variable depends on continuous covariate. In order to improve the low coverage accuracy of such procedure, we apply an empirical likelihood ratio method (EL) to the model and derive the limiting distributions of the estimated and adjusted empirical likelihood ratios for the vector of regression parameter. Two kinds of EL confidence regions for the unknown vector of regression parameters are obtained accordingly. We conduct an extensive simulation study to compare the performance of the proposed methods with that normal approximation based method. The simulation results suggest that the EL methods outperform the normal approximation based method in terms of coverage probability. Finally, we make some discussions about our methods.     

A modified functional delta method and its application to the estimation of risk functionals

The classical functional delta method (FDM) provides a convenient tool for deriving the asymptotic distribution of statistical functionals from the weak convergence of the respective empirical processes. However, for many interesting functionals depending on the tails of the underlying distribution this FDM cannot be applied since the method typically relies on Hadamard differentiability w.r.t. the uniform sup-norm. In this article, we present a version of the FDM which is suitable also for nonuniform sup-norms, with the outcome that the range of application of the FDM enlarges essentially. On one hand, our FDM, which we shall call the modified FDM, works for functionals that are “differentiable” in a weaker sense than Hadamard differentiability. On the other hand, it requires weak convergence of the empirical process w.r.t. a nonuniform sup-norm. The latter is not problematic since there exist strong respective results on weighted empirical processes obtained by Shorack and Wellner (1986) [25], Shao and Yu (1996) [23], Wu (2008) [32], and others. We illustrate the gain of the modified FDM by deriving the asymptotic distribution of plug-in estimates of popular risk measures that cannot be treated with the classical FDM.     

Modeling continuous levels of resistance to multidrug therapy in cancer

Multidrug resistance consists of a series of genetic and epigenetic alternations that involve multifactorial and complex processes, which are a challenge to successful cancer treatments. Accompanied by advances in biotechnology and high-dimensional data analysis techniques that are bringing in new opportunities in modeling biological systems with continuous phenotypic structured models, we investigate multidrug resistance by studying a cancer cell population model that considers a multi-dimensional continuous resistance trait to multiple drugs. We compare our continuous resistance trait model with classical models that assume a discrete resistance state and classify the cases when the continuum and discrete models yield different dynamical patterns in the emerging heterogeneity in response to drugs. We also compute the maximal fitness resistance trait for various continuum models and study the effect of epimutations. Finally, we demonstrate how our approach can be used to study tumor growth with respect to the turnover rate and the proliferating fraction. We show that a continuous resistance level model may result in different dynamics compared with the predictions of other discrete models.     

Efficiency measure,modelling and estimation in combined array designs

In off‐line quality control, the settings that minimize the variance of a quality characteristic are unknown and must be determined based on an estimated dual response model of mean and variance. The present paper proposes a direct measure of the efficiency of any given design‐estimation procedure for variance minimization. This not only facilitates the comparison of different design‐estimation procedures, but may also provide a guideline for choosing a better solution when the estimated dual response model suggests multiple solutions. Motivated by the analysis of an industrial experiment on spray painting, the present paper also applies a class of link functions to model process variances in off‐line quality control. For model fitting, a parametric distribution is employed in updating the variance estimates used in an iteratively weighted least squares procedure for mean estimation. In analysing combined array experiments, Engel and Huele (Technometrics, 1996; 39:365) used log‐link to model process variances and considered an iteratively weighted least squares leading to the pseudo‐likelihood estimates of variances as discussed in Carroll and Ruppert (Transformation and Weighting in Regression, Chapman & Hall: New York). Their method is a special case of the approach considered in this paper. It is seen for the spray paint data that the log‐link may not be satisfactory and the class of link functions considered here improves substantially the fit to process variances. This conclusion is reached with a suggested method of comparing ‘empirical variances’ with the ‘theoretical variances’ based on the assumed model. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A General Class of Change Point and Change Curve Modeling for Life Time Data

Change point hazard rate models arise in many life time data analysis, for example, in studying times until the undesirable side effects occur in clinical trials. In this paper we propose a general class of change point hazard model for survival data. This class includes and extends different types of change point models for survival data, e.g. cure rate model and lag model. Most classical approach develops estimates of model parameters, with particular interest in change point parameter and often the whole hazard function, but exclusively in terms of asymptotic properties. We propose a Bayesian approach, avoiding asymptotics and provide inference conditional upon the observed data. The proposed Bayesian models are fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We illustrate our proposed methodology with an application to modeling life times of the printed circuit board.     

Quantile regression for right-censored and length-biased data

Length-biased data arise in many important fields, including epidemiological cohort studies, cancer screening trials and labor economics. Analysis of such data has attracted much attention in the literature. In this paper we propose a quantile regression approach for analyzing right-censored and length-biased data. We derive an inverse probability weighted estimating equation corresponding to the quantile regression to correct the bias due to length-bias sampling and informative censoring. This method can easily handle informative censoring induced by length-biased sampling. This is an appealing feature of our proposed method since it is generally difficult to obtain unbiased estimates of risk factors in the presence of length-bias and informative censoring. We establish the consistency and asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimator using empirical process techniques. A resampling method is adopted to estimate the variance of the estimator. We conduct simulation studies to evaluate its finite sample performance and use a real data set to illustrate the application of the proposed method.     

Fractional order iterative functional differential equations with parameter

In this paper, we study a fractional order iterative functional differential equation with parameter. Some theorems to prove existence of the iterative series solutions are presented under some natural conditions. Unfortunately, uniqueness results can not be obtained since the solution operator is not Lipschitz continuous but only Hölder continuous. Meanwhile, data dependence results of solutions and parameters provide possible way to describe the error estimates between explicit and approximative solutions for such problems. We also make some examples to illustrate our results. Finally, we conclude with some possible extensions to general parametrized iterative fractional functional differential equations.     

Dynamic single-index model for functional data

We propose a new functional single index model, which called dynamic single-index model for functional data, or DSIM, to efficiently perform non-linear and dynamic relationships between functional predictor and functional response. The proposed model naturally allows for some curvature not captured by the ordinary functional linear model. By using the proposed two-step estimating algorithm, we develop the estimates for both the link function and the regression coefficient function, and then provide predictions of new response trajectories. Besides the asymptotic properties for the estimates of the unknown functions, we also establish the consistency of the predictions of new response trajectories under mild conditions. Finally, we show through extensive simulation studies and a real data example that the proposed DSIM can highly outperform existed functional regression methods in most settings.