Dynamical analysis of a sex-structured Chlamydia trachomatis transmission model with time delay

The effect of using time delay to model the latency period of Chlamydia trachomatis infection is explored, by designing a deterministic two-sex model for Chlamydia transmission dynamics in a population. The resulting delay differential equation model is shown to undergo the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists with one or more stable endemic equilibria when the associated reproduction threshold is less than unity. This phenomenon arises due to the re-infection of individuals who recovered from the disease. Using permanence theory, it is shown that Chlamydia will persist in the population whenever the associated reproduction threshold exceeds unity. It is further shown that long latency period could induce positive (decrease disease burden) or negative (increase disease burden) population-level impact depending on the sign of a certain epidemiological threshold quantity and some other conditions. Furthermore, this study shows that adding a time delay (to model the latency period) does not alter the main equilibrium dynamics (with respect to the effective control or persistence of the disease in the community) of the corresponding non-delayed Chlamydia transmission model considered in our earlier study Sharomi and Gumel (2009) [7].     

Dynamics analysis of a delayed viral infection model with logistic growth and immune impairment

In this paper, the dynamics behavior of a delayed viral infection model with logistic growth and immune impairment is studied. It is shown that there exist three equilibria. By analyzing the characteristic equations, the local stability of the infection-free equilibrium and the immune-exhausted equilibrium of the model are established. By using suitable Lyapunov functional and LaSalle invariant principle, it is proved that the two equilibria are globally asymptotically stable. In the following, the stability of the positive equilibrium is investigated. Furthermore, we investigate the existence of Hopf bifurcation by using a delay as a bifurcation parameter. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to explain the mathematical conclusions.     

The effect of incidence functions on the dynamics of a quarantine/isolation model with time delay

The problem of the asymptotic dynamics of a quarantine/isolation model with time delay is considered, subject to two incidence functions, namely standard incidence and the Holling type II (saturated) incidence function. Rigorous qualitative analysis of the model shows that it exhibits essentially the same (equilibrium) dynamics regardless of which of the two incidence functions is used. In particular, for each of the two incidence functions, the model has a globally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction threshold quantity is less than unity. Further, it has a unique endemic equilibrium when the threshold quantity exceeds unity. For the case with the Holling type II incidence function, it is shown that the unique endemic equilibrium of the model is globally asymptotically stable for a special case. The permanence of the disease is also established for the model with the Holling type II incidence function. Furthermore, it is shown that adding time delay to and/or replacing the standard incidence function with the Holling type II incidence function in the corresponding autonomous quarantine/isolation model with standard incidence (considered in Safi and Gumel (2010) [10]) does not alter the qualitative dynamics of the autonomous system (with respect to the elimination or persistence of the disease). Finally, numerical simulations of the model with standard incidence show that the disease burden decreases with increasing time delay (incubation period). Furthermore, models with time delay seem to be more suitable for modeling the 2003 SARS outbreaks than those without time delay.     

Mathematical Analysis of West Nile Virus Model with Discrete Delays

The paper presents the basic model for the transmission dynamics of West Nile virus (WNV). The model, which consists of seven mutually-exclusive compartments representing the birds and vector dynamics, has a locally-asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction number (?₀) is less than unity. As reveal in [3, 20], the analyses of the model show the existence of the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (where the stable disease-free equilibrium of the model co-exists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the reproduction number of the disease is less than unity). It is shown, that the backward bifurcation phenomenon can be removed by substituting the associated standard incidence function with a mass action incidence. Analysis of the reproduction number of the model shows that, the disease will persist, whenever ?₀ > 1, and increase in the length of incubation period can help reduce WNV burden in the community if a certain threshold quantities, denoted by Δ_b and Δ_v are negative. On the other hand, increasing the length of the incubation period increases disease burden if Δ_b > 0 and Δ_v > 0. Furthermore, it is shown that adding time delay to the corresponding autonomous model with standard incidence (considered in [2]) does not alter the qualitative dynamics of the autonomous system (with respect to the elimination or persistence of the disease).     

A semigroup approach to age-dependent population dynamics with time delay

We study the McKendrick type models of population dynamics with instantaneous time delay in the birth rate. The models involve first order partial differential equations with nonlocal and delayed boundary conditions. We show that a semigroup can be associated

to it and identify the infinistimal generator. Its spectral properties are analyzed yielding large time behaviour. An interesting result is that if the total population converges to an equilibrium it will converge to it in an oscillatory fashion. Further, we consider a logistic ara age-dependent model with delay. A nonlinear semigroup is constructed to describe the evolution of the population. Existence and uniqueness of the nonlinear equation are proved.     

Spatially distributed control of the dynamics of the logistic delay equation

The influence exerted by a small spatially inhomogeneous control on the dynamics of the logistic delay equation is studied. This paper consists of two parts. The first deals with the case where the logistic delay equation has a stable relaxation cycle. It is shown that a small control function can give rise to complex relaxation objects, namely, to a large number of different attractors. In the second part, the local dynamics of the stability problem is analyzed in a neighborhood of equilibrium in a close-to-critical case of “infinite” dimension. Special quasi-normal forms are constructed whose nonlocal dynamics determine the local behavior of solutions to the original equation. Some results of a numerical analysis are presented.     

Mathematical model for assessing the impact of vaccination and treatment on measles transmission dynamics

A deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of measles in a population with fraction of vaccinated individuals is designed and rigorously analyzed. The model with standard incidence exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease‐free equilibrium coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. This phenomenon can be removed if either measles vaccine is assumed to be perfect or disease related mortality rates are negligible. In the latter case, the disease‐free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Furthermore, the model has a unique endemic equilibrium whenever the reproduction threshold exceeds unity. This equilibrium is shown, using a nonlinear Lyapunov function of Goh‐Volterra type, to be globally asymptotically stable for a special case.     

Global analysis of a vector-host epidemic model with nonlinear incidences

In this paper, an epidemic model with nonlinear incidences is proposed to describe the dynamics of diseases spread by vectors (mosquitoes), such as malaria, yellow fever, dengue and so on. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The stability of the system is analyzed for the disease-free and endemic equilibria. The stability of the system can be controlled by the threshold number R₀. It is shown that if R₀ is less than one, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R₀ is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Our results imply that the threshold condition of the system provides important guidelines for accessing control of the vector diseases, and the spread of vector epidemic in an efficient way can be prevented. The contribution of the nonlinear saturating incidence to the basic reproduction number and the level of the endemic equilibrium are also analyzed, respectively.     

Bifurcations in a predator–prey model with general logistic growth and exponential fading memory

A multiparameter predator–prey system generalizing the model introduced in [6] is considered. The system studied in this paper corresponds to the type of models with exponential fading memory where the logistic per capita rate growth of the prey is given by an arbitrary function of class C^k, k ≥ 3. We prove that the model has a Hopf bifurcation and that there exist open sets in the parameter space such that the system exhibits singular attractors and asymptotically stable limit cycles. A numerical simulation is conducted in order to show the existence of critical attractor elements.As pointed out by Ayala et al. in [14], the Lotka–Volterra model of interspecific competition, which is based on the logistic theory of population growth and assumes that the intra and interspecific competitive interactions between species are linear, does not explain satisfactorily the population dynamics of some species. This is due to fact that the model does not take into account some important features of the population, which affect its dynamics. The model introduced in this paper provides independent conditions of these facts, for the existence of a Hopf bifurcation and the asymptotically stable limit cycles.     

Global stability of delay multigroup epidemic models with group mixing and nonlinear incidence rates

In this paper, we present a new delay multigroup SEIR model with group mixing and nonlinear incidence rates and investigate its global stability. We establish that the global dynamics of the models are completely determined by the basic reproduction number R₀. It is shown that, if R₀?1, then the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the disease dies out; if R₀>1, there exists a unique endemic equilibrium that is globally asymptotically stable and thus the disease persists in the population. Finally, a numerical example is also discussed to illustrate the effectiveness of the results.     

Chaos and order in stateless societies: Intercommunity exchange as a factor impacting the population dynamical patterns

The once abstract notions of dynamical chaos now appear naturally in various systems [Kaplan D, Glass L. Understanding nonlinear dynamics. New York: Springer; 1995]. As a result, future trajectories of the systems may be difficult to predict. In this paper, we demonstrate the appearance of chaotic dynamics in model human communities, which consist of producers of agricultural product and producers of agricultural equipment. In the case of a solitary community, the horizon of predictability of the human population dynamics is shown to be dependent on both intrinsic instability of the dynamics and the chaotic attractor sizes. Since a separate community is usually a part of a larger commonality, we study the dynamics of social systems consisting of two interacting communities. We show that intercommunity barter can lead to stabilization of the dynamics in one of the communities, which implies persistence of stable equilibrium under changes of the maximum value of the human population growth rate. However, in the neighboring community, the equilibrium turns into a stable limit cycle as the maximum value of the human population growth rate increases. Following an increase in the maximum value of the human population growth rate leads to period-doubling bifurcations resulting in chaotic dynamics. The horizon of predictability of the chaotic oscillations is found to be limited by 5 years. We demonstrate that the intercommunity interaction can lead to the appearance of long-period harmonics in the chaotic time series. The period of the harmonics is of order 100 and 1000 years. Hence the long-period changes in the population size may be considered as an intrinsic feature of the human population dynamics.     

Global analysis of virus dynamics model with logistic mitosis,cure rate and delay in virus production

In this paper, we study a virus dynamics model with logistic mitosis, cure rate, and intracellular delay. By means of construction of a suitable Lyapunov functionals, obtained by linear combinations of Volterra—type functions, composite quadratic functions and Volterra—type functionals, we provide the global stability for this model. If R₀, the basic reproductive number, satisfies R₀ ≤ 1, then the infection‐free equilibrium state is globally asymptotically stable. Our system is persistent if R₀ > 1. On the other hand, if R₀ > 1, then infection‐free equilibrium becomes unstable and a unique infected equilibrium exists. The local stability analysis is carried out for the infected equilibrium, and it is shown that, if the parameters satisfy a condition, the infected equilibrium can be unstable and a Hopf bifurcation can occur. We also have that if R₀ > 1, then the infected equilibrium state is globally asymptotically stable if a sufficient condition is satisfied. We illustrate our findings with some numerical simulations. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A discrete two-stage population model: continuous versus seasonal reproduction

A discrete two-stage model which describes the dynamics of a population where juveniles and adults compete for different resources is developed. A motivating example is the green tree frog (Hyla cinerea) where tadpoles and adult frogs feed on separate resources. First, continuous breeding is assumed and the asymptotic behavior of the resulting autonomous model is fully analyzed. It is shown that the unique interior equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the inherent net reproductive number is greater than one. However, when the inherent net reproductive number is less than one, the population becomes extinct. Then a seasonal breeding described by a periodic birth rate with period 2 is assumed. It is proved that for this nonautonomous model a period two solution is globally asymptotically stable when the inherent net reproductive number is greater than one and when the inherent net reproductive number is less than one the population becomes extinct. Finally, the advantage (in terms of maximizing the number of juveniles and adults in the population over a fixed time period) of having a seasonal breeding is studied by comparing the average of the juvenile and adult numbers of the periodic solution for the nonautonomous model to the equilibrium solution of the autonomous model. Our results indicate that for high birth rates the equilibrium of the autonomous model is higher than the average of the two cycle solution. Therefore, all other factors being equal, seasonal breeding appears to be deleterious to populations with high birth rates. However, for low birth rates seasonal breeding can be beneficial. It is also shown that for a range of birth rates the nonautnomous model is persistent while the solution to the autonomous model goes to extinction.     

The role of viral infection in phytoplankton dynamics with the inclusion of incubation class

The role of viral infection in phytoplankton dynamics without and with incubation population class is studied. It is observed that phytoplankton species in the absence of incubated class are unstable around an endemic equilibrium but the presence of delay in the form of incubated class has made it conditionally stable around an endemic equilibrium. We also observe that the dynamical system is very sensitive to the transfer rate from susceptible to incubated class and when it crosses a certain threshold the phytoplankton population start oscillating around the endemic equilibrium, shown both analytically and numerically.     

Cholera dynamics with Bacteriophage infection: A mathematical study

Mathematical modeling of waterborne diseases, such as cholera, including a biological control using Bacteriophage viruses in the aquatic reservoirs is of great relevance in epidemiology. In this paper, our aim is twofold: at first, to understand the cholera dynamics in the region around a water body; secondly, to understand how the spread of Bacteriophage infection in the cholera bacterium V. cholerae controls the disease in the human population. For this purpose, we modify the model proposed by Codeço, for the spread of cholera infection in human population and the one proposed by Beretta and Kuang, for the spread of Bacteriophage infection in the bacteria population [1, 2]. We first discuss the feasibility and local asymptotic stability of all the possible equilibria of the proposed model. Further, in the numerical investigation, we have found that the parameter ϕ, called the phage adsorption rate, plays an important role. There is a critical value, ϕ_c, at which the model possess Hopf-bifurcation. For lower values than ϕ_c, the equilibrium E^* is unstable and periodic solutions are observed, while above ϕ_c, the equilibrium E^* is locally asymptotically stable, and further shown to be also globally asymptotically stable. We investigate the effect of the various parameters on the dynamics of the infected humans by means of numerical simulations.     

Aggregation and heterogeneity from the nonlinear dynamic interaction of birth,maturation and spatial migration

We consider a single species structured population distributed in two identical patches connected by spatial dispersal. Assuming that the maturation time for each individual is a random variable with a gamma distribution and that the spatial dispersal rate is constant, we obtain from a hyperbolic differential equation a system of six ordinary differential equations for the matured populations and their moments. Our qualitative analysis and numerical simulations show that the nonlinear interaction of birth process, the maturation delay and the spatial dispersal can lead to a new mechanism for individual aggregation in the form of the existence of multiple stable heterogeneous equilibria, even though the spatial dispersal is assumed to be proportional to the population gradients with a constant rate.     

Analysis of an SVEIS epidemic model with partial temporary immunity and saturation incidence rate

In this paper, an SVEIS epidemic model for an infectious disease that spreads in the host population through horizontal transmission is investigated. The role that temporary immunity (natural, disease induced, vaccination induced) plays in the spread of disease, is incorporated in the model. The total host population is bounded and the incidence term is of the Holling-type II form. It is shown that the model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The global dynamics are completely determined by the basic reproduction number R₀. If R₀<1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable which leads to the eradication of disease from population. If R₀>1, a unique endemic equilibrium exists and is globally stable in the feasible region under certain conditions. Further, the transcritical bifurcation at R₀=1 is explored by projecting the flow onto the extended center manifold. We use the geometric approach for ordinary differential equations which is based on the use of higher-order generalization of Bendixson’s criterion. Further, we obtain the threshold vaccination coverage required to eradicate the disease. Finally, taking biologically relevant parametric values, numerical simulations are performed to illustrate and verify the analytical results.     

Competitive systems with stage structure of distributed-delay type

This paper considers a delay differential equation model for the interaction among n species, the adult members of which are in competition. For each of the n species the model incorporates an infinite distributed time delay which represents the time from birth to maturity of that species. Thus, the time delays appear in the adult recruitment terms. The dynamics of the model are determined, and sharp global stability criteria are established for the interior equilibrium as well as the axial equilibrium.     

A time-delay model for the effect of toxicant in a single species growth with stage-structure

In this paper, we investigate a single-species growth model with stage-structure consisting of immature and mature stages for the effects of toxicants with constant maturation time-delay. We study the dynamics of our model in three cases: an instantaneous emission of toxicant, a constant emission of toxicant, and a periodic emission of toxicant into the environment. We present results on positivity and boundedness of all solutions under appropriate conditions. The model equations are analyzed mathematically with regard to the nature of equilibria and their stabilities using the theory of nonlinear differential equations and computer simulations. It is shown that under suitable conditions, there exists a globally asymptotically stable positive equilibrium. It is concluded from the analysis that as the concentration of toxicant in the environment increases, equilibrium densities of both immature and mature populations decrease. It is also noted that the effects of toxicants are more on the equilibrium level of immature population in comparison to the mature population.