Geometric ergodicity of affine processes on cones

For affine processes on finite-dimensional cones, we give criteria for geometric ergodicity — that is exponentially fast convergence to a unique stationary distribution. Ergodic results include both the existence of exponential moments of the limiting distribution, where we exploit the crucial affine property, and finite moments, where we invoke the polynomial property of affine semigroups. Furthermore, we elaborate sufficient conditions for aperiodicity and irreducibility. Our results are applicable to Wishart processes with jumps on the positive semidefinite matrices, continuous-time branching processes with immigration in high dimensions, and classical term-structure models for credit and interest rate risk.     

Double exponential map on symmetric spaces

We establish an asymptotic formula for the double exponential map operator on affine symmetric spaces. This operator plays an important role in the geometric calculus of symbols of (pseudo)differential operators on manifolds with connection, whose foundations were laid by Sharafutdinov. To obtain this result, we essentially use the structural theory of symmetric spaces and techniques of the Lie group theory. One of the key moments is an application of the Campbell-Hausdorff series in Dynkin form.     

On almost periodic processes in impulsive competitive systems with delay and impulsive perturbations

In the present paper we investigate the existence of almost periodic processes of ecological systems which are presented with the general impulsive nonautonomous Lotka–Volterra system of integro-differential equations with infinite delay. The impulses are at fixed moments of time, and by using the techniques of piecewise continuous Lyapunov’s functions, new sufficient conditions for the global exponential stability of the unique positive almost periodic solutions of these systems are given.     

The first hitting time of the integers by symmetric Lévy processes

For one-dimensional Brownian motion, the exit time from an interval has finite exponential moments and its probability density is expanded in exponential terms. In this note we establish its counterpart for certain symmetric Lévy processes. Applying the theory of Pick functions, we study properties of the Laplace transform of the first hitting time of the integer lattice as a meromorphic function in detail. Its density is expanded in exponential terms and the poles and the zeros of a Pick function play a crucial role.Intermediate results concerning finite exponential moments are also obtained for a class of nonsymmetric Lévy processes.     

On the Distributions of the State Sizes of Closed Continuous Time Homogeneous Markov Systems

The evolution of the state sizes of a closed continuous-time homogeneous Markov system is determined by the convolution of multinomial distributions expressing the number of transitions between the states of the system. In order to investigate the distributions of the state sizes, we provide the computation of their moments, at any time point, via a recursive formula concerning the derivative of the moments. The basic result is given by means of a new vector product which is similar to the Kronecker product. Finally, a formula for the computation of the state sizes distributions is given.     

On Bernstein type inequalities for stochastic integrals of multivariate point processes

In this paper, we first obtain a Bernstein type of concentration inequality for stochastic integrals of multivariate point processes under some conditions through the Doléans-Dade exponential formula, and then derive a uniform exponential inequality using a generic chaining argument. As a direct consequence, we obtain an upper bound for a sequence of discrete time martingales indexed by a class of functionals. Finally, we apply the uniform exponential bound to nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators and provide a rate of convergence in terms of Hellinger distance, which is an improvement of earlier work of van de Geer (1995).     

Moment characterization of matrix exponential and Markovian arrival processes

This paper provides a general framework for establishing the relation between various moments of matrix exponential and Markovian processes. Based on this framework we present an algorithm to compute any finite dimensional moments of these processes based on a set of required (low order) moments. This algorithm does not require the computation of any representation of the given process. We present a series of related results and numerical examples to demonstrate the potential use of the obtained moment relations. This work is partially supported by the Italian-Hungarian bilateral R&D programme, by OTKA grant n. T-34972, by MIUR through PRIN project Famous and by EEC project Crutial.     

Non-explosion of diffusion processes on manifolds with time-dependent metric

We study the problem of non-explosion of diffusion processes on a manifold with time-dependent Riemannian metric. In particular we obtain that Brownian motion cannot explode in finite time if the metric evolves under backwards Ricci flow. Our result makes it possible to remove the assumption of non-explosion in the pathwise contraction result established by Arnaudon et?al. (arXiv:0904.2762, to appear in Sém. Prob.). As an important tool which is of independent interest we derive an It? formula for the distance from a fixed reference point, generalising a result of Kendall (Ann. Prob. 15:1491?C1500, 1987).     

Limit theorems,scaling of moments and intermittency for integrated finite variance supOU processes

Superpositions of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck type (supOU) processes provide a rich class of stationary stochastic processes for which the marginal distribution and the dependence structure may be modeled independently. We show that they can also display intermittency, a phenomenon affecting the rate of growth of moments. To do so, we investigate the limiting behavior of integrated supOU processes with finite variance. After suitable normalization four different limiting processes may arise depending on the decay of the correlation function and on the characteristic triplet of the marginal distribution. To show that supOU processes may exhibit intermittency, we establish the rate of growth of moments for each of the four limiting scenarios. The rate change indicates that there is intermittency, which is expressed here as a change-point in the asymptotic behavior of the absolute moments.     

p-Moment exponential stability of Caputo fractional differential equations with noninstantaneous random impulses

Stability of Caputo fractional differential equations with impulses occurring at random moments and with non-instantaneous time of their action is studied. Using queuing theory and the usual distribution for waiting time, we study the case of exponentially distributed random variables between two consecutive moments of impulses. The p-moment exponential stability of the zero solution is defined and studied when the waiting time between two consecutive impulses is exponentially distributed and the length of the action of any impulse is initially given. The argument is based on Lyapunov functions. Some examples are given to illustrate our results.     

Modelling Credit Risk in the Jump Threshold Framework

ABSTRACT

The jump threshold framework for credit risk modelling developed by Garreau and Kercheval enjoys the advantages of both structural- and reduced-form models. In their article, the focus is on multidimensional default dependence, under the assumptions that stock prices follow an exponential Lévy process (i.i.d. log returns) and that interest rates and stock volatility are constant. Explicit formulas for default time distributions and basket credit default swap (CDS) prices are obtained when the default threshold is deterministic, but only in terms of expectations when the default threshold is stochastic. In this article, we restrict attention to the one-dimensional, single-name case in order to obtain explicit closed-form solutions for the default time distribution when the default threshold, interest rate and volatility are all stochastic. When the interest rate and volatility processes are affine diffusions and the stochastic default threshold is properly chosen, we provide explicit formulas for the default time distribution, prices of defaultable bonds and CDS premia. The main idea is to make use of the Duffie–Pan–Singleton method of evaluating expectations of exponential integrals of affine diffusions.     

Integral representation of renormalized self-intersection local times

In this paper we apply Clark-Ocone formula to deduce an explicit integral representation for the renormalized self-intersection local time of the d-dimensional fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H∈(0,1). As a consequence, we derive the existence of some exponential moments for this random variable.     

The Distribution of the Sojourn Time for the Brownian Excursion

The solutions of various problems in the theories of queuing processes, branching processes, random graphs and others require the determination of the distribution of the sojourn time (occupation time) for the Brownian excursion. However, no standard method is available to solve this problem. In this paper we approximate the Brownian excursion by a suitably chosen random walk process and determine the moments of the sojourn time explicitly. By using a limiting approach, we obtain the corresponding moments for the Brownian excursion. The moments uniquely determine the distribution, enabling us to derive an explicit formula.     

Coupling methods and exponential ergodicity for two-factor affine processes

In this paper, by invoking the coupling approach, we establish exponential ergodicity under the L¹-Wasserstein distance for two-factor affine processes. The method employed herein is universal in a certain sense so that it is applicable to general two-factor affine processes, which allow that the first component solves a general Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) process, and that there are interactions in the second component, as well as that the Brownian noises are correlated; and even to some models beyond two-factor processes.     

Bond pricing under a Markovian regime-switching jump-augmented Vasicek model via stochastic flows

In this article, we shall explore the state of art of stochastic flows to derive an exponential affine form of the bond price when the short rate process is governed by a Markovian regime-switching jump-diffusion version of the Vasicek model. We provide the flexibility that the market parameters, including the mean-reversion level, the volatility rate and the intensity of the jump component switch over time according to a continuous-time, finite-state Markov chain. The states of the chain may be interpreted as different states of an economy or different stages of a business cycle. We shall provide a representation for the exponential affine form of the bond price in terms of fundamental matrix solutions of linear matrix differential equations.     

Positive Harris recurrence and exponential ergodicity of the basic affine jump-diffusion

In this article, we find the transition densities of the basic affine jump-diffusion (BAJD), which has been introduced by Duffie and Gârleanu as an extension of the CIR model with jumps. We prove the positive Harris recurrence and exponential ergodicity of the BAJD. Furthermore, we prove that the unique invariant probability measure π of the BAJD is absolutely continuous with respect to the Lebesgue measure and we also derive a closed-form formula for the density function of π.     

On moments based Padé approximations of ruin probabilities

In this paper, we investigate the quality of the moments based Padé approximation of ultimate ruin probabilities by exponential mixtures. We present several numerical examples illustrating the quick convergence of the method in the case of Gamma processes. While this is not surprising in the completely monotone case (which holds when the shape parameter is less than 1), it is more so in the opposite case, for which we improve even further the performance by a fix-up which may be of special importance due to its potential use in the four moments Gamma approximation.We also review the connection of the exponential mixtures approximation to Padé approximation, orthogonal polynomials, and Gaussian quadrature. These connections may turn out useful for providing rates of convergence.     

Integrability of Solutions to Mixed Stochastic Differential Equations

We prove that the standard conditions for the unique solvability of a mixed stochastic differential equation guarantee that its solution possesses finite moments. We also give conditions supplying the existence of exponential moments. For a special equation whose coefficients do not satisfy the linear growth condition, we prove the integrability of its solution.     

A Feynman-Kac type formula for a fixed delay CIR model

Stochastic delay differential equations (SDDE’s) have been used for financial modeling. In this article, we study a SDDE obtained by the equation of a CIR process, with an additional fixed delay term in drift; in particular, we prove that there exists a unique strong solution (positive and integrable) which we call fixed delay CIR process. Moreover, for the fixed delay CIR process, we derive a Feynman-Kac type formula, leading to a generalized exponential-affine formula, which is used to determine a bond pricing formula when the interest rate follows the delay’s equation. It turns out that, for each maturity time T, the instantaneous forward rate is an affine function (with time dependent coefficients) of the rate process and of an auxiliary process (also depending on T). The coefficients satisfy a system of deterministic differential equations.     

Kinematische Berührung im Äquiaffinen

Given two curves in the real affine plane, one is fixed and the other undergoes volume-preserving affinities. Through transversal affinities we define a contact measure on the subset consisting of those affinities, which cause third-order contact between the fixed and the transformed curve. A kinematic formula expresses this contact measure in terms of affine lengths and affine curvatures of the given curves. In a similar way, parallel supporting planes of closed convex surfaces in affine space are treated.