A STATE SPACE BIOECONOMIC MODEL OF PACIFIC HALIBUT

Abstract Evaluation of potential economic consequences of alternative management actions requires an understanding of how the biological stock will be affected by the management action and an understanding of the response of economic systems to changes in the timing, magnitude, and size distribution of harvests and changes in the location and catchability of the biological stock. We use a hybrid structural time series model to represent Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) stock and recruitment dynamics and a system of structural equations to represent supply and demand relationships for Pacific halibut from Alaska and British Columbia. Model simulations explore the economic effects of changes in recruitment success, growth rate, and carrying capacity, and changes in international supplies of halibut.     

基于ARIMA与神经网络集成的GDP时间序列预测研究

本文深入分析了单整自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型与神经网络(NN)模型的预测特性和优劣,并在此基础上建立了由ARIMA模型和NN模型集成的GDP时间序列预测模型与算法。其基本思想是充分发挥两种模型在线性空间和非线性空间的预测优势,据此将GDP时间序列的数据结构分解为线性自相关主体和非线性残差两部分,首先用ARIMA模型预测序列的线性主体,然后用NN模型对其非线性残差进行估计,最终集成为整个序列的预测结果。仿真实验表明:集成模型的预测准确率显著高于单一模型的预测准确率,从而证实了集成模型用于GDP预测的有效性。     

Forecasting stock index price based on M-factors fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization

In real time, one observation always relies on several observations. To improve the forecasting accuracy, all these observations can be incorporated in forecasting models. Therefore, in this study, we have intended to introduce a new Type-2 fuzzy time series model that can utilize more observations in forecasting. Later, this Type-2 model is enhanced by employing particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique. The main motive behind the utilization of the PSO with the Type-2 model is to adjust the lengths of intervals in the universe of discourse that are employed in forecasting, without increasing the number of intervals. The daily stock index price data set of SBI (State Bank of India) is used to evaluate the performance of the proposed model. The proposed model is also validated by forecasting the daily stock index price of Google. Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed model in comparison with existing fuzzy time series models and conventional time series models.     

Generating pseudo-random time series with specified marginal distributions

Our goal is to generate a target time series with a specified marginal distribution and a specified lag-one autocorrelation. We consider an existing approach: first transform a known autocorrelated reference series into the corresponding uniform autocorrelated series and then apply the specified inverse transformation to each observation producing the target series. This approach is simple, except that the lag-one reference-series autocorrelation must be determined in a set-up step. We propose a method for determining this autocorrelation.     

The Stochastically Subordinated Poisson Normal Process for Modelling Financial Assets

The method of stochastic subordination, or random time indexing, has been recently applied to Wiener process price processes to model financial returns. Previous emphasis in stochastic subordination models has involved explicitly identifying the subordinating process with an observable quantity such as number of trades. In contrast, the approach taken here does not depend on the specific identification of the subordinated time variable, but rather assumes a class of time models and estimates parameters from data. In addition, a simple Markov process is proposed for the characteristic parameter of the subordinating distribution to explain the significant autocorrelation of the squared returns. It is shown, in particular, that the proposed model, while containing only a few more parameters than the commonly used Wiener process models, fits selected financial time series particularly well, characterising the autocorrelation structure and heavy tails, as well as preserving the desirable self-similarity structure, and the existence of risk-neutral measures necessary for objective derivative valuation. Also, it will be shown that the model proposed fits financial times series data better than the popular generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. Additionally, this paper will develop a skew model by replacing the normal variates with Lévy stable variates.     

Graphical modelling of multivariate time series

We introduce graphical time series models for the analysis of dynamic relationships among variables in multivariate time series. The modelling approach is based on the notion of strong Granger causality and can be applied to time series with non-linear dependences. The models are derived from ordinary time series models by imposing constraints that are encoded by mixed graphs. In these graphs each component series is represented by a single vertex and directed edges indicate possible Granger-causal relationships between variables while undirected edges are used to map the contemporaneous dependence structure. We introduce various notions of Granger-causal Markov properties and discuss the relationships among them and to other Markov properties that can be applied in this context. Examples for graphical time series models include nonlinear autoregressive models and multivariate ARCH models.     

Reorder level determination with serially-correlated demand

This research analyses the effect of serially-correlated demand on the determination of appropriate reorder levels. While previous research has investigated this effect on the required levels of safety stock, the consequence of autocorrelation on the expected demand during lead time has been ignored. In this paper we examine the determination of accurate reorder levels for first-order autoregressive and moving average demand processes. A numeric analysis is then conducted to evaluate the effect of serial correlation on the service level provided, and indicates that existing approaches of managing serially-correlated demand can result in excessive inventories and shortages for high levels of autocorrelation.     

Robust pair‐copula based forecasts of realized volatility

A useful application for copula functions is modeling the dynamics in the conditional moments of a time series. Using copulas, one can go beyond the traditional linear ARMA (p,q) modeling, which is solely based on the behavior of the autocorrelation function, and capture the entire dependence structure linking consecutive observations. This type of serial dependence is best represented by a canonical vine decomposition, and we illustrate this idea in the context of emerging stock markets, modeling linear and nonlinear temporal dependences of Brazilian series of realized volatilities. However, the analysis of intraday data collected from e‐markets poses some specific challenges. The large amount of real‐time information calls for heavy data manipulation, which may result in gross errors. Atypical points in high‐frequency intraday transaction prices may contaminate the series of daily realized volatilities, thus affecting classical statistical inference and leading to poor predictions. Therefore, in this paper, we propose to robustly estimate pair‐copula models using the weighted minimum distance and the weighted maximum likelihood estimates (WMLE). The excellent performance of these robust estimates for pair‐copula models are assessed through a comprehensive set of simulations, from which the WMLE emerged as the best option for members of the elliptical copula family. We evaluate and compare alternative volatility forecasts and show that the robustly estimated canonical vine‐based forecasts outperform the competitors. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Test for Nonlinearity of Time Series with Infinite Variance

A heavy tailed time series that can be represented as an infinite moving average has the property that the sample autocorrelation function (ACF) at lag h converges in probability to a constant (h), although the mathematical correlation typically does not exist. For many nonlinear heavy tailed models, however, the sample ACF at lag h converges in distribution to a nondegenerate random variable. In this paper, a test for (non)linearity of a given infinite variance time series is constructed, based on subsample stability of the sample ACF. The test is applied to several real and simulated datasets.     

金融时间序列的转折点分析

本文讨论了时间序列的预测问题,在摆脱了在传统模型过多假设的基础上,采用对不同类型预测模型进行综合平衡分析的方法,权衡各项指标,以达到发现时间按序列转折点的目的.并以股票序列为例说明所给预测模型的有效性.     

Representation of time in mathematical programming modeling languages

Time-staged mathematical programming models have a planning horizon that is divided into a sequence of consecutive time periods. For the modeling of this sequence of time periods the use of calendars is proposed as an additional set concept for mathematical programming modeling languages. The definition of calendars is based on familiar notions such as set, ordering, interval length and functions. A calendar is an interval set and can be used to verify automatically the proper time referencing in stock balances. When a calendar is also a difference set, then backward and forward time referencing can be stated with the explicit use of time units. For models with a rolling horizon, concise and flexible ways to specify the structure of calendars are presented. The aggregation of raw data into model parameter values is supported by linking calendars that represent different time scales. The influence of the proposed calendar concept on the human ability to understand, maintain and verify models is analyzed throughout the paper on the basis of selected examples.     

基于神经网络的股票预测模型

针对股票市场的特征提取困难、预测精度较低等问题,本文基于深度学习算法,构建了一系列用于股票市场预测的神经网络模型,包括基于多层感知机(MLP)、卷积神经网络(CNN)、递归神经网络(RNN)、长短期记忆网络(LSTM)和门控神经单元(GRU)的模型。 针对RNN、LSTM和GRU无法充分利用所参考的时间维度的信息,引入注意力机制(Attention Mechanism) 给各时间维度的信息赋予不同权重,区分不同信息对预测的重要程度,从而提升递归网络模型的性能。上述模型均基于股票数据进行了优化,基于上证指数对各类模型进行了充分的对比实验,探索了模型中重要变量对性能的影响,旨在为基于神经网络的股票预测模型给出具体的优化方向。     

Stock market forecasting by using a hybrid model of exponential fuzzy time series

The initial aim of this study is to propose a hybrid method based on exponential fuzzy time series and learning automata based optimization for stock market forecasting. For doing so, a two-phase approach is introduced. In the first phase, the optimal lengths of intervals are obtained by applying a conventional fuzzy time series together with learning automata swarm intelligence algorithm to tune the length of intervals properly. Subsequently, the obtained optimal lengths are applied to generate a new fuzzy time series, proposed in this study, named exponential fuzzy time series. In this final phase, due to the nature of exponential fuzzy time series, another round of optimization is required to estimate certain method parameters. Finally, this model is used for future forecasts. In order to validate the proposed hybrid method, forty-six case studies from five stock index databases are employed and the findings are compared with well-known fuzzy time series models and classic methods for time series. The proposed model has outperformed its counterparts in terms of accuracy.     

Modeling autocorrelation functions of long-range dependent teletraffic series based on optimal approximation in Hilbert space—A further study

This paper discusses optimal approximation of autocorrelation functions of teletraffic series by introducing a generalization of autocorrelation function form of fractional Gaussian noise (FGN). The demonstrations with real-traffic series are given.     

基于MCMC模拟的贝叶斯厚尾金融随机波动模型分析

针对现有金融时间序列模型建模方法难以刻画模型参数的渐变性问题,利用贝叶斯分析方法构建贝叶斯厚尾SV模型。首先对反映波动性特征的厚尾金融随机波动模型(SV-T)进行贝叶斯分析,构造了基于Gibbs抽样的MCMC数值计算过程进行仿真分析,并利用DIC准则对SV-N模型和SV-T模型进行优劣比较。研究结果表明:在模拟我国股市的波动性方面,SV-T模型比SV-N模型更优,更能反应我国股市的尖峰厚尾的特性,并且证明了我国股市具有很强的波动持续性。     

An iterative sequential heuristic procedure to a real-life 1.5-dimensional cutting stock problem

This paper addresses a real-life 1.5D cutting stock problem, which arises in a make-to-order plastic company. The problem is to choose a subset from the set of stock rectangles to be used for cutting into a number of smaller rectangular pieces so as to minimize total production cost and meet orders. The total production cost includes not only material wastage, as in traditional cutting stock problems, but also production time. A variety of factors are taken into account, like cutter knife changes, machine restrictions, due dates and other work in progress limitations. These restrictions make the combinatorial structure of the problem more complex. As a result, existing algorithms and mathematical models are no longer appropriate. Thus we developed a new 1.5D cutting stock model with multiple objectives and multi-constraints and solve this problem in an incomplete enumerative way. The computational results show that the solution procedure is easy to implement and works very well.     

Computation of Reorder Levels When the Demands are Correlated and the Lead Time Random

A method is given for the calculation of the reorder level (ROL) of a stock control system when the demands are correlated and the lead time is random. The analysis requires, first, the determination of the first four moments of the total demand in the lead time, secondly, using them to find approximate percentiles of the distribution and finally, using both of these to evaluate the ROL corresponding to a required service level.Several numerical results, for different models of autocorrelation and lead time distribution serve to illustrate the procedure. Application to a real example is included.     

Diagnostic checking of multivariate nonlinear time series models with martingale difference errors

In this article, we derive the asymptotic distribution of residual autocovariance and autocorrelation matrices for a general class of multivariate nonlinear time series models by assuming only that the error term is a martingale difference sequence. Two types of applications are developed: global test statistics of the portmanteau type and one-lag test statistics, which describe the residual correlation at individual lags. To illustrate the proposed methodology, simulation results are reported for diagnosing multivariate threshold time series models. The following test statistics are compared: the classical test statistics presuming independent errors and the proposed methodology which supposes only martingale difference errors.     

上证指数的预测分析

本文根据上海股市2005年6月到2009年8月的上证指数数据,通过建立数学模型的方法,对上海股票市场的走势情况作出了综合评价,建立短期内预测股市发展趋势模型对上证指数进行预测,并通过历史实际数据对模型进行了验证。     

Separation of random noise models from seasonal time series data

The autocorrelation function of seasonal time series data is shown to have peaks which occur at the correlation lags equal to the integer multiples of the fundamental period that is present in the series. This property is shown to be valid even if some of the harmonics including the fundamental are removed from the time series data. Using this property, an analytical procedure is presented for estimating the variance of the white noise generating the low frequency random walk model present in the data. The procedure is similarly extended to estimate the variance of white noise generating the autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) noise models. The method is validated on several seasonal time series data whose components are known a priori.