Modelling category demand in retail chains

This paper is concerned with analysis of retail-chain data on the demand of frequently bought product categories. It is intended to extend the domain of demand analysis to chain-wide data that directly concern retail managers and researchers. The proposed model explores specific structural hypotheses for chain demand and provides a comprehensive framework that admits store heterogeneity, periodic sales variation, chain-wide sales shocks, and sales dynamics. The approach is illustrated in a case study using scanner data from 10 product categories and yields empirical, quantitative insights into the structure of category demand in retail chains. The model determines category elasticities with clear implications for the effectiveness of pricing policy at the retail level and provides a useful tool for applied demand analysis in the modern retail environment.     

基于市场需求增加的双渠道闭环供应链定价机制研究

针对制造商开辟在线销售渠道现象的普及,考虑混合双渠道销售会增加产品的潜在需求,构建制造商与零售商分散、集中定价两种决策模型,利用博弈理论对模型进行求解分析,研究表明在双方分散、集中两种定价策略模型中,随着双渠道开通导致的市场需求率的增加,制造商的批发价、零售商的销售价格上调,零售商的回收价格下降,闭环供应链系统总利润则呈现先下降后上升的变化。最后,运用数值算例进一步验证和讨论双渠道销售导致的市场需求增加对闭环供应链系统定价策略、双方利润及系统渠道效率的影响。     

Optimal policies for inventory systems with discretionary sales, random yield and lost sales

We determine replenishment and sales decisions jointly for an inventory system with random demand, lost sales and random yield. Demands in consecutive periods are independent random variables and their distributions are known. We incorporate discretionary sales, when inventory may be set aside to satisfy future demand even if some present demand may be lost. Our objective is to minimize the total discounted cost over the problem horizon by choosing an optimal replenishment and discretionary sales policy. We obtain the structure of the optimal replenishment and discretionary sales policy and show that the optimal policy for finite horizon problem converges to that of the infinite horizon problem. Moreover, we compare the optimal policy under random yield with that under certain yield, and show that the optimal order quantity （sales quantity） under random yield is more （less） than that under certain yield.     

Inventory and sales effort management under unobservable lost sales

A retailer needs to make decisions regarding how much to order and how much sales effort to exert in an environment with uncertain demand. One intrinsic complexity in a typical retail environment is caused by the fact that the retailer can obtain information about demand only based on sales, as demand itself is unobservable. Taking a Bayesian approach, Lariviere and Porteus (1999) show that in such a setting a retailer should stock more to increase the probability of an exact demand observation. In this article, we extend their work by allowing the retailer to control both the stocking quantity and sales effort, which can be used to affect demand. We show that their insights with respect to information stalking carry over to this setting. In addition, our model allows gaining a better understanding of optimal sales effort strategies. We find that demand management has a dual role in supporting information gathering: while at the beginning of a product life cycle it is optimal to support learning effects by sharply reducing sales effort, at later stages of the product life cycle an aggressive strategy of increased promotional activities can be used to harvest the information gathered in earlier periods.     

寡头垄断市场下纯捆绑与部件销售模式的选择模型

本文研究了在寡头市场下部件销售模式和纯捆绑模式的选择问题,分别构建了部件销售模式下和纯捆绑模式下的利润函数,并且在此基础上构建了目标函数。文章突破了传统的生产者主导捆绑策略的模式,而是从全新的视角即消费者和生产者的双重视角研究。研究发现:销售模式的选择依赖于商品预期价格的标准差、商品之间的相关系数、商品之间的需求水平、市场信息的透明程度、消费者的消费经验以及商品之间的兼容程度。     

Cointegration analysis of brand and category sales: Stationarity and long‐run equilibrium in market shares

The present study uses modern time series methodology to understand long‐run equilibrium in markets and provides additional evidence of the frequent existence of stationary market shares for frequently purchased consumer products. Dekimpe and Hanssens, Marketing Science 1995; 14(2):G109–121 using a database of over 400 prior studies, found that 78 per cent of the market share series they studied were stationary, but that 68 per cent of the sales series were evolving. Our findings reconcile these results. A major contribution of this paper is its demonstration that the prior empirical evidence that a majority of sales series is in evolution is consistent with stationary market shares, if brand sales and category sales are cointegrated. To the extent that competitive activities have an effect on market share, an implication of our findings is that these activities may, in general, only have a temporary effect on market share. Finally, we distinguish, from a strategic perspective, between sales and share response at the primary‐demand level (category sales), selective‐demand level (brand sales) and relative‐position level (market share) and identify strategic scenarios depending upon their stable/evolving nature. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Renewal theory forecasting for stock control

A method is described for forecasting spares demand from data on model sales. The method uses concepts borrowed from renewal theory. The scheme is particularly useful for producing a forecast of all-time future demand for a spare so that a decision may be made about the timing of the final production run.     

Who wants to break the hockey-stick sales pattern in the supply chain?

The hockey-stick pattern faced by suppliers consists of sales spikes at the end of each period. One of its causes is the information asymmetry that favors the retailer, who has better knowledge about the stochastic consumer demand. Because of delayed purchases, the supplier is induced to offer promotions, allowing the retailer to forward-buy at low prices. We model this situation as an infinitely repeated game, where each stage-game is subject to imperfect information. Drawing from the Nash equilibrium, we express sales and inventories in terms of demand, cost and the strategies players may adopt, and derive the conditions for a cooperative equilibrium.     

Interactions of competing manufacturers’ leader-follower relationship and sales format on online platforms

Currently, manufacturers can sell products on e-tailers’ online platforms through agency sales format or reselling format. However, how to choose the best sales formats has puzzled competing manufacturers in practice. The main purpose of this paper is to answer this problem by considering the combined effects of manufacturers’ leader-follower relationships, the e-tailer’s referral fees, the difference in products’ substitutable degrees and the difference in products’ market bases. Our results show that, if demand functions are linearly price-dependent, when two manufacturers sell substitutable products on the same e-tailer’s online platform, the e-tailer’s best action is always to let both manufacturers adopt reselling format; regardless of one manufacturer’s sales format, the other manufacturer always prefers agency sales format, which are independent of the e-tailer’s referral fees, the difference in two products’ substitutable degrees and the difference in two products’ market bases. Whether demand functions are linear or nonlinear in retail prices, the e-tailer’s best action is to let both manufacturers whose products are symmetric adopt reselling format; no matter what sales format one manufacturer adopts, the other manufacturer always prefers agency sales format, which are independent of the two manufacturers’ leader-follower relationships. Moreover, if two manufacturers adopt same sales format to sell symmetric products, leader role enables a manufacturer to charge higher optimal wholesale/retail price when demand functions are linear in retail prices, but the two products have equal optimal wholesale/retail prices regardless of the two manufacturers’ leader-follower relationships when demand functions are nonlinear in retail prices.     

Optimal pricing and advertising in a durable-good duopoly

This paper analyzes dynamic advertising and pricing policies in a durable-good duopoly. The proposed infinite-horizon model, while general enough to capture dynamic price and advertising interactions in a competitive setting, also permits closed-form solutions. We use differential game theory to analyze two different demand specifications – linear demand and isoelastic demand – for symmetric and asymmetric competitors. We find that the optimal price is constant and does not vary with cumulative sales, while the optimal advertising is decreasing with cumulative sales. Comparative statics for the results are presented.     

Bayesian demand updating in the lost sales newsvendor problem: A two-moment approximation

We consider Bayesian updating of demand in a lost sales newsvendor model with censored observations. In a lost sales environment, where the arrival process is not recorded, the exact demand is not observed if it exceeds the beginning stock level, resulting in censored observations. Adopting a Bayesian approach for updating the demand distribution, we develop expressions for the exact posteriors starting with conjugate priors, for negative binomial, gamma, Poisson and normal distributions. Having shown that non-informative priors result in degenerate predictive densities except for negative binomial demand, we propose an approximation within the conjugate family by matching the first two moments of the posterior distribution. The conjugacy property of the priors also ensure analytical tractability and ease of computation in successive updates. In our numerical study, we show that the posteriors and the predictive demand distributions obtained exactly and with the approximation are very close to each other, and that the approximation works very well from both probabilistic and operational perspectives in a sequential updating setting as well.     

Inventory model for deteriorating items with freshness and price dependent demand: Optimal discounting and ordering policies

A major part of retail industry deals with items whose freshness declines with time, resulting in lower demand at the same price. The item may later begin to deteriorate, when it is customary to offer discount in order to boost sales. A discounting policy may bring many benefits for the retailer, if correctly chosen. Motivated by this we have developed and analyzed an inventory model when demand for a deteriorating item depends initially only upon its selling price and later also on the freshness condition. We consider general demand function and general deterioration distribution for an inventory model with lost sales shortage. It is shown that net profit is a concave function of the period with positive inventory and conditionally concave function of discount. Important managerial insights obtained from sensitivity analysis suggest some policies counter to those commonly practiced by the retailers while others are in concurrence with the strategies in vogue.     

考虑退货的电商平台销售策略

本文研究当存在无缺陷退货时,电商平台如何选择合适的销售模式。根据销售价格和退货价格对市场需求以及退货的影响,电商平台可以策略性地选择转售模式和代理模式。我们构建了一个斯塔克伯格博弈模型,电商平台作为领导者选择销售模式,制造商在既定销售模式下进行决策。研究发现,当需求对价格的敏感程度较低、需求对退货价的敏感程度较高及退货量对退货价的敏感程度较低时,平台应提供代理模式,反之应提供转售模式,并探究平台的最优销售策略对制造商利润的影响,从而对平台和制造商的销售策略选择起到一定的指导意义。     

The implications of postponement on contract design and channel performance

We analyze a supply chain consisting of one manufacturer and one retailer under consignment sales with a revenue sharing contract. The manufacturer produces before, but charges price to sell the products through the retailer after the demand curve is revealed. The retailer deducts a fraction from the selling price for each unit sold and remits the balance to manufacturer. We refer to the capability whereby firms delay price decision and make sales in response to actual market condition as postponement. We find that, when market demand admits a multiplicative structure, the revenue share and allocation of channel profit between the firms when they have postponement capability are similar to when they do not have such capability. Postponement improves the profits of individual firms. Such an effect is more phenomenal in the centralized system than in decentralized system, and when the market demand is more sensitive to price changes. However, it causes the profit loss, defined as the percentage deviation of channel profit in the decentralized system relative to the centralized system, to worsen, and the gap widens with retailer’s sales cost. When the demand has an additive structure, while the roles of postponement on firms’ decisions differ slightly from those under the multiplicative structure, the structure of the strategic interactions between firms and relative channel performance are not significantly altered.     

多产品销售薪酬机制的最优提成率研究

多产品销售的提成率由于其直接影响销售人员的精力投入和分配，一直是销售人员薪酬合同设计的焦点。以往最优提成率研究没有区分环境因素和销售努力对销售量的影响。本文运用代理理论设计了一种基于销售人员对产品销售的贡献的多产品销售合同模型，论证了该合同具有激励销售人员努力销售和使其如实上报定额的特性，并对多产品销售相对独立的情况下销售提成率设置进行了分析，推出了各产品提成率与销售反应参数之间的关系特点，提出了一些指导性结论。     

考虑零售商风险规避及努力因素的供应链协调与优化模型

引入零售商风险规避偏好,在努力水平影响需求的两种模式下,分别建立了销售回馈与惩罚契约模型。随后,探讨了单纯的销售回馈与惩罚契约能否实现供应链协调,以及协调时各契约参数满足的条件。最后,通过数值分析对契约的协调性进行进一步分析。     

Dynamic Pricing via Dynamic Programming<Superscript>1</Superscript>

This article specifies an efficient numerical scheme for computing optimal dynamic prices in a setting where the demand in a given period depends on the price in that period, cumulative sales up to the current period, and remaining market potential. The problem is studied in a deterministic and monopolistic context with a general form of the demand function. While traditional approaches produce closed-form equations that are difficult to solve due to the boundary conditions, we specify a computationally tractable numerical procedure by converting the problem to an initial-value problem based on a dynamic programming formulation. We find also that the optimal price dynamics preserves certain properties over the planning horizon: the unit revenue is linearly proportional to the demand elasticity of price; the unit revenue is constant over time when the demand elasticity is constant; and the sales rate is constant over time when the demand elasticity is linear in the price. ¹We acknowledge professor robert e. kalaba for initiating this work and suggesting solution methods.     

中国房价形成机制的实证研究

构建了房地产市场的供求模型和均衡价格模型,引入商品房销售价格、销售面积、施工面积等9个变量,建立相应的联立方程组,对房地产价格形成机制进行了研究.研究结果表明：房地产的价格很大程度上受到居民收入、利率、以及土地价格的影响,相对而言居民收入和利率的影响最为明显.同时,居民对房地产的潜在需求和有效需求间的差距较大.目前相关部门应更加关注房地产市场有效需求的规模,并适当调整利率、土地供给等,从而保证房地产市场的稳定发展.     

Joint pricing and ordering policy for an advance booking system with partial order cancellations

In this paper, an inventory model for deteriorating items with price-dependent demand is developed. The cycle is divided into two periods, where an advance sales period is followed by a spot sales period. In practice, customers with reservations may cancel their orders before receiving them. During the advance sales period, the rate of reservations which will not be cancelled is dependent on the length of the waiting time for the receiving order. During the spot sales period, all customers receive their orders at the time of the purchase. We prove the existence of the realistic relationship that the advance sales price is smaller than the spot sales price. We also develop some useful properties and provide an iterative procedure for solving the maximization problem. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and we conclude the paper with suggestions for possible future research.     

Demand seasonality in retail inventory management

We investigate the value of accounting for demand seasonality in inventory control. Our problem is motivated by discussions with retailers who admitted to not taking perceived seasonality patterns into account in their replenishment systems. We consider a single-location, single-item periodic review lost sales inventory problem with seasonal demand in a retail environment. Customer demand has seasonality with a known season length, the lead time is shorter than the review period and orders are placed as multiples of a fixed batch size. The cost structure comprises of a fixed cost per order, a cost per batch, and a unit variable cost to model retail handling costs. We consider four different settings which differ in the degree of demand seasonality that is incorporated in the model: with or without within-review period variations and with or without across-review periods variations. In each case, we calculate the policy which minimizes the long-run average cost and compute the optimality gaps of the policies which ignore part or all demand seasonality. We find that not accounting for demand seasonality can lead to substantial optimality gaps, yet incorporating only some form of demand seasonality does not always lead to cost savings. We apply the problem to a real life setting, using Point-of-Sales data from a European retailer. We show that a simple distinction between weekday and weekend sales can lead to major cost reductions without greatly increasing the complexity of the retailer’s automatic store ordering system. Our analysis provides valuable insights on the tradeoff between the complexity of the automatic store ordering system and the benefits of incorporating demand seasonality.