A Random Effect Block Bootstrap for Clustered Data

Random effects models for hierarchically dependent data, for example, clustered data, are widely used. A popular bootstrap method for such data is the parametric bootstrap based on the same random effects model as that used in inference. However, it is hard to justify this type of bootstrap when this model is known to be an approximation. In this article, we describe a random effect block bootstrap approach for clustered data that is simple to implement, free of both the distribution and the dependence assumptions of the parametric bootstrap, and is consistent when the mixed model assumptions are valid. Results based on Monte Carlo simulation show that the proposed method seems robust to failure of the dependence assumptions of the assumed mixed model. An application to a realistic environmental dataset indicates that the method produces sensible results. Supplementary materials for the article, including the data used for the application, are available online.     

成败型数据下Logistic分布的参数估计

使用EM算法 ,在成败型数据下 ,对Logistic分布的参数进行估计 ,得到了估计量所满足的非线性方程组     

Asymptotic Properties of a Class of Mixture Models for Failure Data: The Interior and Boundary Cases

We analyse an exponential family of distributions which generalises the exponential distribution for censored failure time data, analogous to the way in which the class of generalised linear models generalises the normal distribution. The parameter of the distribution depends on a linear combination of covariates via a possibly nonlinear link function, and we allow another level of heterogeneity: the data may contain "immune" individuals who are not subject to failure. Thus the data is modelled by a mixture of a distribution from the exponential family and a "mass at infinity" representing individuals who never fail. Our results include large sample distributions for parameter estimators and for hypothesis test statistics obtained by maximising the likelihood of a sample. The asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistic for the hypothesis that there are no immunes present in the population is shown to be "non-standard"; it is a 50-50 mixture of a chi-squared distribution on 1 degree of freedom and a point mass at 0. Our analysis clearly shows how "negligibility" of individual covariate values and "sufficient followup" conditions are required for the asymptotic properties.     

Weighted Empirical Likelihood Ratio Confidence Intervals for the Mean with Censored Data

We propose a procedure to construct the empirical likelihood ratio confidence interval for the mean using a resampling method. This approach leads to the definition of a likelihood function for censored data, called weighted empirical likelihood function. With the second order expansion of the log likelihood ratio, a weighted empirical likelihood ratio confidence interval for the mean is proposed and shown by simulation studies to have comparable coverage accuracy to alternative methods, including the nonparametric bootstrap-t. The procedures proposed here apply in a unified way to different types of censored data, such as right censored data, doubly censored data and interval censored data, and computationally more efficient than the bootstrap-t method. An example of a set of doubly censored breast cancer data is presented with the application of our methods.     

Efficient Data Augmentation for Fitting Stochastic Epidemic Models to Prevalence Data

Stochastic epidemic models describe the dynamics of an epidemic as a disease spreads through a population. Typically, only a fraction of cases are observed at a set of discrete times. The absence of complete information about the time evolution of an epidemic gives rise to a complicated latent variable problem in which the state space size of the epidemic grows large as the population size increases. This makes analytically integrating over the missing data infeasible for populations of even moderate size. We present a data augmentation Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework for Bayesian estimation of stochastic epidemic model parameters, in which measurements are augmented with subject-level disease histories. In our MCMC algorithm, we propose each new subject-level path, conditional on the data, using a time-inhomogenous continuous-time Markov process with rates determined by the infection histories of other individuals. The method is general, and may be applied to a broad class of epidemic models with only minimal modifications to the model dynamics and/or emission distribution. We present our algorithm in the context of multiple stochastic epidemic models in which the data are binomially sampled prevalence counts, and apply our method to data from an outbreak of influenza in a British boarding school. Supplementary material for this article is available online.     

指数族非线性混合效应模型基于$Q$函数的数据删除度量

对指数族非线性混合效应模型, 本文基于$Q$函数(朱宏图, 2001)方法, 给出几种度量数据删除影响的统计量\bd 其主要思想是将随机效应视为缺失数据, 并利用EM算法来处理完全数据对数似然函数的条件期望\bd 一个实际例子说明我们方法是有效的     

尖峰厚尾保险损失数据的统计建模

保险损失数据的一个重要特点是尖峰厚尾性,即既有大量的小额损失,又有少量的高额损失,使得通常的损失分布模型很难拟合此类数据,从而出现了对各种损失分布模型进行改进的尝试.改进后的模型一方面要有较高的峰度,另一方面又要有较厚的尾部.最近几年文献中出现的改进模型主要是组合模型,即把一个具有非零众数的模型(如对数正态分布或威布尔分布)与一个厚尾分布模型(如帕累托分布或广义帕累托分布)进行组合.讨论了这些组合模型的性质和特点,并与偏t正态分布和偏t分布进行了比较分析,最后应用MCMC方法估计模型参数,并通过一个实际损失数据的拟合分析,表明偏t分布对尖峰厚尾损失数据的拟合要优于目前已经提出的各种组合模型.     

右删失情形下平均生存时间的加权Bootstrap推断

在右删失情形下,基于一类合成数据,采用加权Bootstrap方法获得了平均生存时间的加权Bootstrap估计及其加权Bootstrap分布,并就权重是否独立两种情形,证明了此估计的相合性及此分布近似的有效性.基于此,构造了平均生存时间的置信区间.在数值模拟中,取权为Dirichlet(n;1,…,1),并从覆盖概率和区间长度角度,比较了加权Bootstrap和渐近正态逼近产生的置信区间.     

Spatiotemporal Models for Gaussian Areal Data

We introduce a class of spatiotemporal models for Gaussian areal data. These models assume a latent random field process that evolves through time with random field convolutions; the convolving fields follow proper Gaussian Markov random field (PGMRF) processes. At each time, the latent random field process is linearly related to observations through an observational equation with errors that also follow a PGMRF. The use of PGMRF errors brings modeling and computational advantages. With respect to modeling, it allows more flexible model structures such as different but interacting temporal trends for each region, as well as distinct temporal gradients for each region. Computationally, building upon the fact that PGMRF errors have proper density functions, we have developed an efficient Bayesian estimation procedure based on Markov chain Monte Carlo with an embedded forward information filter backward sampler (FIFBS) algorithm. We show that, when compared with the traditional one-at-a-time Gibbs sampler, our novel FIFBS-based algorithm explores the posterior distribution much more efficiently. Finally, we have developed a simulation-based conditional Bayes factor suitable for the comparison of nonnested spatiotemporal models. An analysis of the number of homicides in Rio de Janeiro State illustrates the power of the proposed spatiotemporal framework.

Supplemental materials for this article are available online in the journal’s webpage.     

核实数据下响应变量缺失的线性EV模型经验似然推断

考虑响应变量随机缺失而协变量带有误差的线性模型,借助于核实数据和借补方法,构造了回归系数的两种经验似然比,证明了所提出的估计的经验对数似然比渐近于一个自由度为1的独立χ2变量的加权和;而经调整后所得的调整经验对数似然比渐近于自由度为p的χ2分布,该结果可以用来构造未知参数的置信域.此外,我们也构造了响应均值的调整经验对数似然比统计量,并证明了所提出的统计量渐近于x2分布,可用此结果构造响应均值的置信域.通过模拟研究比较了置信域的精度及其平均区间长度.     

Weighted Profile Least Squares Estimation for a Panel Data Varying-Coefficient Partially Linear Model

This paper is concerned with inference of panel data varying-coefficient partially linear models with a one-way error structure. The model is a natural extension of the well-known panel data linear model （due to Baltagi 1995） to the setting of semiparametric regressions. The authors propose a weighted profile least squares estimator （WPLSE） and a weighted local polynomial estimator （WLPE） for the parametric and nonparametric components, respectively. It is shown that the WPLSE is asymptotically more efficient than the usual profile least squares estimator （PLSE）, and that the WLPE is also asymptotically more efficient than the usual local polynomial estimator （LPE）. The latter is an interesting result. According to Ruckstuhl, Welsh and Carroll （2000） and Lin and Carroll （2000）, ignoring the correlation structure entirely and ＂pretending＂ that the data are really independent will result in more efficient estimators when estimating nonparametric regression with longitudinal or panel data. The result in this paper shows that this is not true when the design points of the nonparametric component have a closeness property within groups. The asymptotic properties of the proposed weighted estimators are derived. In addition, a block bootstrap test is proposed for the goodness of fit of models, which can accommodate the correlations within groups illustrate the finite sample performances of the Some simulation studies are conducted to proposed procedures.     

Regression Models for Multivariate Count Data

Data with multivariate count responses frequently occur in modern applications. The commonly used multinomial-logit model is limiting due to its restrictive mean-variance structure. For instance, analyzing count data from the recent RNA-seq technology by the multinomial-logit model leads to serious errors in hypothesis testing. The ubiquity of overdispersion and complicated correlation structures among multivariate counts calls for more flexible regression models. In this article, we study some generalized linear models that incorporate various correlation structures among the counts. Current literature lacks a treatment of these models, partly because they do not belong to the natural exponential family. We study the estimation, testing, and variable selection for these models in a unifying framework. The regression models are compared on both synthetic and real RNA-seq data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

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In this paper, linear regression models with contaminated data are considered. Estimation methods for the regression parameters based on least absolute deviations (LAD) are proposed, and properties of consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed method are proved under some regular conditions. Simulations are done to assess the properties of the method when sample size is small, and simulation results show that the methods works well.     

Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multivariate Probit Models With Sparse Inverse Correlation Matrices

We propose a Bayesian approach for inference in the multivariate probit model, taking into account the association structure between binary observations. We model the association through the correlation matrix of the latent Gaussian variables. Conditional independence is imposed by setting some off-diagonal elements of the inverse correlation matrix to zero and this sparsity structure is modeled using a decomposable graphical model. We propose an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm relying on a parameter expansion scheme to sample from the resulting posterior distribution. This algorithm updates the correlation matrix within a simple Gibbs sampling framework and allows us to infer the correlation structure from the data, generalizing methods used for inference in decomposable Gaussian graphical models to multivariate binary observations. We demonstrate the performance of this model and of the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm on simulated and real datasets. This article has online supplementary materials.     

纵向数据下部分线性模型的渐近性质

纵向数据是在实际应用中很常见的一种数据类型,在解决实际问题时建立纵向数据模型,进行统计分析很实用。本文研究一类重要的纵向数据下部分线性回归模型,所分析的纵向数据是随机观测而得到的,根据纵向数据的特性构造模型中未知参数分量和未知函数的估计量,进而研究了估计量的渐近性质,通过实例分析,证实了该方法的有效性和可操作性,有很好的使用价值。     

纵向数据下变系数测量误差模型的渐近估计

本文主要研究纵向数据下变系数测量误差模型的估计问题.利用B样条方法逼近模型中未知的变系数,构造关于B样条系数的二次推断函数来处理未知的个体内相关和测量误差,得到变系数的二次推断函数估计,建立估计方法和结果的渐近性质.数值模拟结果显示本文提出的估计方法具有一定的实用价值.     

Exact Stratified Linear Rank Tests for Ordered Categorical and Binary Data

Abstract

We present an efficient algorithm for generating exact permutational distributions for linear rank statistics defined on stratified 2 × c contingency tables. The algorithm can compute exact p values and confidence intervals for a rich class of nonparametric problems. These include exact p values for stratified two-population Wilcoxon, Logrank, and Van der Waerden tests, exact p values for stratified tests of trend across several binomial populations, exact p values for stratified permutation tests with arbitrary scores, and exact confidence intervals for odds ratios embedded in stratified 2 × c tables. The algorithm uses network-based recursions to generate stratum-specific distributions and then combines them into an overall permutation distribution by convolution. Where only the tail area of a permutation distribution is desired, additional efficiency gains are achieved by backward induction and branch-and-bound processing of the network. The algorithm is especially efficient for highly imbalanced categorical data, a situation where the asymptotic theory is unreliable. The backward induction component of the algorithm can also be used to evaluate the conditional maximum likelihood, and its higher order derivatives, for the logistic regression model with grouped data. We illustrate the techniques with an analysis of two data sets: The leukemia data on survivors of the Hiroshima atomic bomb and data from an animal toxicology experiment provided by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.     

Testing for Varying Dispersion in Exponential Family Nonlinear Models

A diagnostic model and several new diagnostic statistics are proposed for testing for varying dispersion in exponential family nonlinear models. A score statistic and an adjusted score statistic based on Cox and Reid (1987, J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B, 55, 467-471) are derived in normal, inverse Gaussian, and gamma nonlinear models. An adjusted likelihood ratio statistic is also given for normal and inverse Gaussian nonlinear models. The results of simulation studies are presented, which show that the adjusted tests keep their sizes better and are more powerful than the ordinary tests.     

大初值的抛物型守恒律方程解的大时间性态(英文)

In this paper,we study the large-time behavior of periodic solutions for parabolic conservation laws.There is no smallness assumption on the initial data.We firstly get the local existence of the solution by the iterative scheme,then we get the exponential decay estimates for the solution by energy method and maximum principle,and obtain the global solution in the same time.     

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In this paper, we study the asymptotic behavior of the B-spline estimator for semiparametric panel data model with fixed effects.We give explicit expression for the asymptotic bias of B-spline estimator for nonparametric function m. Our study shows that the asymptotic bias of the B-spline estimator does not depend on the working correlation matrix. Simulations are conducted to demonstrate our conclusion.