基于模糊Black-Scholes模型的螺纹钢期权定价

能源金融和大宗商品的衍生品交易已逐渐成为金融领域的前沿热点问题。钢铁类金融衍生品定价和能源金融风险研究,对能源资产证券化和金融的发展有着重要意义。本文在现有的期权定价模型下,结合影响螺纹钢实物期权价格的因素,优化经典的Black-Scholes实物期权定价模型,得到螺纹钢模糊B-S实物期权定价模型,并结合VaR方法,研究螺纹钢实物期权的定价机制,量化钢铁类金融风险,从而合理的控制风险传播。     

A literature review on dynamic pricing of electricity

Revenue management and dynamic pricing are concepts that have immense possibilities for application in the energy sector. Both can be considered as demand-side management tools that can facilitate the offering of different prices at different demand levels. This paper studies literature on various topics related to the dynamic pricing of electricity and lists future research avenues in pricing policies, consumers’ willingness to pay and market segmentation in this field. Demand and price forecasting play an important role in determining prices and scheduling load in dynamic pricing environments. This allows different forms of dynamic pricing policies to different markets and customers depending on customers’ willingness to pay. Consumers’ willingness to pay for electricity services is also necessary in setting price limits depending on the demand and demand response curve. Market segmentation can enhance the effects of such pricing schemes. Appropriate scheduling of electrical load enhances the consumer response to dynamic tariffs.     

Hybrid pricing in a coupled European power market with more wind power

In the European electricity market, the promotion of wind power leads to more network congestion. Zonal pricing (market coupling), which does not take the physical characteristics of transmission into account, is the most commonly used method to relieve network congestion in Europe. However, zonal pricing fails to provide adequate locational price signals regarding scarcity of energy and thus creates a large amount of unscheduled cross-border flows originating from wind-generated power. In this paper, we investigate the effects of applying a hybrid congestion management model, i.e., a nodal pricing model for one country embedded in a zonal pricing system for the rest of the market. We find that, compared to full nodal pricing, hybrid pricing fails to fully utilize all the resources in the network and some wrong price signals might be given. However, hybrid pricing still outperforms zonal pricing. The results from the study cases show that, within the area applying nodal pricing, better price signals are given; the need for re-dispatching is reduced; more congestion rent is collected domestically and the unit cost of power is reduced.     

Multi-layer model of correlated energy prices

In this article we develop an extension of the affine jump-diffusion modeling framework and use it to build an intuitive and tractable model of an energy price complex. The development is motivated by the need to model prices of electricity while capturing their dependence on the price of other energy commodities. Such a model is essential for valuing a range of typical derivatives traded in the electricity markets: cross-commodity spread options, cross-location spread options, fuel-switching powerplants, etc. We give an approximate pricing method for these derivatives together with precise error bound estimates.     

不完全市场的保险定价研究

完全市场上的保险定价问题是人们比较熟悉的研究内容,但它不符合市场实际.本文在不完全市场上研究保险定价的问题.通过对累积保险损失的分析,建立在累积赌付下的保险定价模型;基于对一个无风险资产和有限多个风险资产的投资,建立保险投资定价模型.通过变形,得到相应的保险价格的倒向随机微分方程,并利用倒向随机微分方程的理论和方法,得到了相应的保险价格公式.最后,给出释例进行了分析.本文的研究,不用考虑死亡率、损失的概率分布等因素,为保险定价提供了新的思路,丰富了有限的保险定价方法.     

基于电能节约的E-DEA模型及其应用

按照全要素能源效率的概念,重点考虑电能投入约束,构造了基于电能节约的E-DEA模型,其目标函数为极大化产出比例和电能投入比例之差,约束条件中除考虑一般投入量约束外,还同时强调电能投入径向节约和产出径向增加。根据模型最优解,给出了相应的有效、非有效、弱有效、用电规模收益状态的判断准则,以及相应于不同有效性情况下决策单元的改进。以合肥市通用制造业规上企业所属21个行业为研究对象,从第二次经济普查中选择年均资产、从业人员、电力、非电力能源、二氧化碳排量为投入指标,主营业务收入为产出指标,对行业电能利用效率进行实证分析,通过分析潜在电能可节约量和主营业务收入可增加量,明确了各行业改进目标。     

跳-扩散价格过程下有交易成本的期权定价研究

Black-Scholes模型成功解决了完全市场下的欧式期权定价问题.研究在不完全市场下的一类期权定价问题,即在假设交易过程有交易成本且标的资产价格服从跳-扩散过程下,推导出了在该模型下期权价格所满足的微分方程.     

System Dynamics Modelling for Residential Energy Efficiency Analysis and Management

A System Dynamics model to simulate the substitution of installed household appliances by more efficient ones is presented. The model allows the construction of scenarios and also the analyses of several other issues such as: alternatives for technology penetration, electricity consumption growth, gas consumption growth and effects of pricing policies on various energy demands. The proposed methodology has been applied to assist the decision process in relation to gas penetration policies. The model also supports policy making on energy efficiency and it allows the calculation of total energy savings under different scenarios. Furthermore, government underpricing policies on tariffs and appliance acquisition (longer loan terms, lower interest rates and grace periods) may also be analysed.     

A continuous-time dynamic pricing model knowing the competitor’s pricing strategy

In this paper we consider a dynamic pricing model for a firm knowing that a competitor adopts a static pricing strategy. We establish a continuous time model to analyze the effect of dynamic pricing on the improvement in expected revenue in the duopoly. We assume that customers arrive to purchase tickets in accordance with a geometric Brownian motion. We derive an explicit closed-form expression for an optimal pricing policy to maximize the expected revenue. It is shown that when the competitor adopts a static pricing policy, dynamic pricing is not always effective in terms of maximizing expected revenue compared to a fixed pricing strategy. Moreover, we show that the size of the reduction in the expected revenue depends on the competitor’s pricing strategy. Numerical results are presented to illustrate the dynamic pricing policy.     

收益管理中单产品动态定价的稳健模型研究

在收益管理的动态定价模型的研究中,由传统的确定性模型和随机模型所得到的定价策略常常受限制于需求估计的准确性,当对需求的估计出现偏差时定价策略可能达不到最大化收益的目的,因此定价策略即最优解的稳健性越来越受到研究者的重视。针对需求函数系数的不确定性,在未知需求分布的条件下,应用稳健最优化思想,提出了一种稳健的动态定价模型,并对模型的最优解和最大收益进行了数值模拟分析。     

供应商歧视定价下网络零售商店内推介策略研究

研究了供应商歧视定价时网络零售商店内推介策略。首先,以供应商统一定价模型为基准,通过逆推归纳法求解不同推介策略组合下零售商和供应商的均衡利润,研究发现:仅当消费者对两家零售商认知差异较小时四种推介策略组合才能同时成立,且随着推介费用的增大两零售商均衡推介策略依次为:都不推介、仅强势零售商1推介和双向推介。其次,构建供应商歧视定价模型,发现歧视定价有利于弱势零售商2获得市场空间,随着消费者对两家零售商感知差异和推介费用的变化呈现出多样化的均衡推介策略。最后,探讨了两种定价模型下供应商的最优利润,发现受推介策略的影响歧视定价未必能够为供应商带来更多利润。     

带有网络外部性的动态寡头垄断定价

给出了带有网络外部性的两阶段寡头垄断定价模型,并用博弈论方法求解.通过与带有网络外部性的完全垄断定价模型的比较,得出重要结论:在网络外部性足够大的情况下,①寡头竞争情况下与完全垄断下情况一样,“科斯假设”将得到克服,均衡定价将呈现先低后高的情况.②对于完全垄断厂商来说,网络外部性k的增加能够增加其利润,但对于寡头竞争的企业来说,正好相反,k的增加将导致其利润的下降.     

Transportation pricing of a truckload carrier

Freight transportation is a major component of logistical operations. Due to the increase in global trade, fierce competition among shippers and raising concerns about energy, companies are putting more emphasis on effective management and usage of transportation services. This paper studies the transportation pricing problem of a truckload carrier in a setting that consists of a retailer, a truckload carrier and a less than truckload carrier. In this setting, the truckload carrier makes his/her pricing decision based on previous knowledge on the less than truckload carrier’s price schedule and the retailer’s ordering behavior. The retailer then makes a determination of his/her order quantity through an integrated model that explicitly considers the transportation alternatives, and the related costs (i.e., bimodal transportation costs) and capacities. In the paper, the retailer’s replenishment problem and the truckload carrier’s pricing problem are modeled and solved based on a detailed analysis. Numerical evidence shows that the truckload carrier may increase his/her gainings significantly through better pricing and there is further opportunity of savings if the truckload carrier and the retailer coordinate their decisions.     

双跳-扩散过程下的脆弱期权定价

本文考虑含有交易对手违约风险的衍生产品的定价,以公司价值信用风险模型为基础,在标的资产价格和公司价值均服从跳-扩散过程的情况下,运用结构化的方法对脆弱期权定价进行建模,建立了双跳-扩散过程下的脆弱期权定价模型,分别在公司负债固定和随机的情况下推导出了脆弱期权的定价公式.     

A model and some evidence on pricing compound call options

The most widely accepted option pricing model, derived by Black and Scholes (B-S), studies single priced options. Nevertheless, it has important implications for the relative pricing of compound call options. Compound options are two or more option contracts on a given security with different striking prices but with each expiring on the same day.Studying the relative pricing of compound options provides insight into the efficiency of generally accepted option pricing models. Comparing prices of compound options enables us to analyze factors in option pricing that would remain hidden in studies of single options.We are not primarily concerned with efficiency of option pricing, although some of our results may bear on this issue. Our primary concerns are: (1) to determine the implications of the B-S model for compound options and (2) to explain compound option prices by a number of variables, and thus come to conclusions about option pricing generally.We found difficulty with the B-S model when attempting to explain the relative pricing of compound options. Further, from empirical tests, we found that the most important factor in explaining the relative pricing of compound options is the relative degree of leverage which is operative between the various components of a compound option set.     

Pricing Variance Swaps in a Hybrid Model of Stochastic Volatility and Interest Rate with Regime-Switching

In this paper, we consider the problem of pricing discretely-sampled variance swaps based on a hybrid model of stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rate with regime-switching. Our modeling framework extends the Heston stochastic volatility model by including the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) stochastic interest rate model. In addition, certain model parameters in our model switch according to a continuous-time observable Markov chain process. This enables our model to capture several macroeconomic issues such as alternating business cycles. A semi-closed form pricing formula for variance swaps is derived. The pricing formula is assessed through numerical implementation, where we validate our pricing formula against the Monte Carlo simulation. The impact of incorporating regime-switching for pricing variance swaps is also discussed, where variance swaps prices with and without regime-switching effects are examined in our model. We also explore the economic consequence for the prices of variance swaps by allowing the Heston-CIR model to switch across three different regimes.     

基于非对称GARCH-GH的期权定价公式及实证分析

本文应用Eerser测度转换技术构建了非对称GARCH-GH期权定价闭形公式,该公式通过非正态分布和非对称GARCH模型刻画金融资产的尖峰、厚尾、偏态分布的和随机波动特征。通过金融市场交易数据实证发现:与被称为期权定价工业新标准的Heston和Nandi(2001)的HN模型相比,本文构建的EGARCH-NIG模型定价误差更小,比HN模型的定价误差减小了26.24%, 对于实值程度较强的期权,本文的EGARCH-GH、GJR-GH和GJR-NIG模型的定价误差均小于HN模型。模型的估计误差与期权实值程度成反比,即实值程度越强,估计误差越小,所估计的结果越准确。     

Utility indifference pricing and hedging for structured contracts in energy markets

In this paper we study the pricing and hedging of structured products in energy markets, such as swing and virtual gas storage, using the exponential utility indifference pricing approach in a general incomplete multivariate market model driven by finitely many stochastic factors. The buyer of such contracts is allowed to trade in the forward market in order to hedge the risk of his position. We fully characterize the buyer’s utility indifference price of a given product in terms of continuous viscosity solutions of suitable nonlinear PDEs. This gives a way to identify reasonable candidates for the optimal exercise strategy for the structured product as well as for the corresponding hedging strategy. Moreover, in a model with two correlated assets, one traded and one nontraded, we obtain a representation of the price as the value function of an auxiliary simpler optimization problem under a risk neutral probability, that can be viewed as a perturbation of the minimal entropy martingale measure. Finally, numerical results are provided.     

考虑路网可靠性和空间公平性的次优拥挤收费模型

根据随机路网环境下出行者规避风险的路径选择行为,提出了一种考虑路网可靠性和空间公平性的次优拥挤收费双层规划模型。其中,上层模型以具有空间公平性约束条件下最大化路网的社会福利为目标,下层模型是实施拥挤收费条件下考虑行程时间可靠性的弹性需求用户平衡模型。鉴于双层规划模型的复杂性,设计了基于遗传算法和FrankWolfe算法的组合式算法来求解提出的模型。算例结果表明:考虑行程时间可靠性的次优拥挤收费会产生不同于传统次优拥挤收费的平衡流量分布模式,表明出行者的路径选择行为对拥挤收费结果会产生直接影响;此外,算例结果还说明遗传算法对参数设置具有很强的鲁棒性。     

基于CEV过程带交易费的脆弱期权定价的数值算法

主要研究基于CEV过程且支付交易费的脆弱期权定价的数值计算问题.首先通过构造无风险投资组合,导出了基于CEV过程且支付交易费用的脆弱期权定价的偏微分方程模型;其次应用有限差分方法将定价模型离散化,并设计数值算法;最后以看跌期权为例进行数值试验,分析各定价参数对看跌期权价值的影响.