Decision making under uncertainty with unknown utility function and rank-ordered probabilities

We consider the ranking of decision alternatives in decision analysis problems under uncertainty, under very weak assumptions about the type of utility function and information about the probabilities of the states of nature. Namely, the following two assumptions are required for the suggested method: the utility function is in the class of increasing continuous functions, and the probabilities of the states of nature are rank-ordered. We develop a simple analytical method for the partial ranking of decision alternatives under the stated assumptions. This method does not require solving optimization programs and is free of the rounding errors.     

Decision making under uncertainty with fuzzy targets

This paper discusses the issue of how to use fuzzy targets in the target-based model for decision making under uncertainty. After introducing a target-based interpretation of the expected value on which it is shown that this model implicitly assumes a neutral behavior on attitude about the target, we examine the issue of using fuzzy targets considering different attitudes about the target selection of the decision maker. We also discuss the problem for situations on which the decision maker’s attitude about target may change according to different states of nature. Especially, it is shown that the target-based approach can provide an unified way for solving the problem of fuzzy decision making with uncertainty about the state of nature and imprecision about payoffs. Several numerical examples are given for illustration of the discussed issues.     

An interior semi-infinite programming method

In this paper, a new method for semi-infinite programming problems with convex constraints is presented. The method generates a sequence of feasible points whose cluster points are solutions of the original problem. No maximization over the index set is required. Some computational results are also presented.This work was partly supported by Republicka Zajednica za Nauku Socijalisticke Republike Srbije. The authors are indebted to Professor R. A. Tapia for encouraging the approach taken in this research.     

Forecasting transport requirements for district primary health care in Ghana: A simulation study

In rural planning in developing countries, random factors such as vehicle breakdown, weather conditions and staff availability are particularly important. These can be dealt with specially well by simulation. Transportation is also particularly important in rural areas. This paper presents a simulation study of transport requirements for a rural primary health care scheme in Ghana where the random factors are unavailability of vehicles due to repairs and unavailability of health specialists and drivers for work due to holidays, etc. The analysis gives a quick method of calculating the expected number of jobs that can be done for given numbers of vehicles, levels of availability etc. The simulation gives the corresponding probability distribution. The analysis also indicates which random factor has most effect on limiting the number of jobs that can be done. Policy conclusions are drawn regarding the number of vehicles per district and the payment of incentives to staff for good attendance.     

Decision making under uncertainty comprising complete ignorance and probability

This paper investigates a model of decision making under uncertainty comprising opposite epistemic states of complete ignorance and probability. In the first part, a new utility theory under complete ignorance is developed that combines Hurwicz–Arrow's theory of decision under ignorance with Anscombe–Aumann's idea of reversibility and monotonicity used to characterize subjective probability. The main result is a representation theorem for preference under ignorance by a particular one-parameter function – the τ-anchor utility function. In the second part, we study decision making under uncertainty comprising an ignorant variable and a probabilistic variable. We show that even if the variables are independent, they are not reversible in Anscombe–Aumann's sense. This insight leads to the development of a new proposal for decision under uncertainty represented by a preference relation that satisfies the weak order and monotonicity assumptions but rejects the reversibility assumption. A distinctive feature of the new proposal is that the certainty equivalent of a mapping from the state space of uncertain variables to the prize space depends on the order in which the variables are revealed. Explicit modeling of the order of variables explains some of the puzzles in multiple-prior model and the models for decision making with Dempster–Shafer belief function.     

Multiple goal non-cooperative conflicts under uncertainty: A fuzzy set approach

This paper investigates strategy selection for a participant in a two-party non-cooperative conflict which involves both uncertainty and multiple goals. Uncertainty arises from the players not knowing the utility functions. Multiple objectives appear as the result of the payoff being a vector of prizes and the players attempt to attain various goals for each prize separately. The main objective is to present a fuzzy set/fuzzy programming solution concept to the conflict situation. In doing so, we compare a Bayesian player to one that employs fuzzy set techniques. We point out some of the advantages of the fuzzy set method. The necessary computations in the fuzzy set method are explained in detail through an example.     

Stochastic programming approach to optimization under uncertainty

In this paper we discuss computational complexity and risk averse approaches to two and multistage stochastic programming problems. We argue that two stage (say linear) stochastic programming problems can be solved with a reasonable accuracy by Monte Carlo sampling techniques while there are indications that complexity of multistage programs grows fast with increase of the number of stages. We discuss an extension of coherent risk measures to a multistage setting and, in particular, dynamic programming equations for such problems.      

A sequential quadratic programming with a dual parametrization approach to nonlinear semi-infinite programming

In the sequel of the work reported in Liu et al. (1999), in which a method based on a dual parametrization is used to solve linear-quadratic semi-infinite programming (SIP) problems, a sequential quadratic programming technique is proposed to solve nonlinear SIP problems. A merit function to measure progress toward the solution and a procedure to compute the penalty parameter are also proposed.     

Robust linear semi-infinite programming duality under uncertainty

In this paper, we propose a duality theory for semi-infinite linear programming problems under uncertainty in the constraint functions, the objective function, or both, within the framework of robust optimization. We present robust duality by establishing strong duality between the robust counterpart of an uncertain semi-infinite linear program and the optimistic counterpart of its uncertain Lagrangian dual. We show that robust duality holds whenever a robust moment cone is closed and convex. We then establish that the closed-convex robust moment cone condition in the case of constraint-wise uncertainty is in fact necessary and sufficient for robust duality. In other words, the robust moment cone is closed and convex if and only if robust duality holds for every linear objective function of the program. In the case of uncertain problems with affinely parameterized data uncertainty, we establish that robust duality is easily satisfied under a Slater type constraint qualification. Consequently, we derive robust forms of the Farkas lemma for systems of uncertain semi-infinite linear inequalities.     

Selecting tolerances in chance-constrained programming: A multiple objective linear programming approach

An importance issue concerning the practical application of chance-constrained programming is the lack of a rational method for choosing risk levels or tolerances on the chance constraints. While there has also been much recent debate on the relationship, equivalence, usefulness, and other characteristics of chance-constrained programming relative to stochastic programming with recourse, this paper focuses on the problem of improving the selection of tolerances within the chance-constrained framework. An approach is presented, based on multiple objective linear programming, which allows the decision maker to be more involved in the tolerance selection process, but does not demand a priori decisions on appropriate tolerances. An example is presented which illustrates the approach.     

A one-phase algorithm for semi-infinite linear programming

We present an algorithm for solving a large class of semi-infinite linear programming problems. This algorithm has several advantages: it handles feasibility and optimality together; it has very weak restrictions on the constraints; it allows cuts that are not near the most violated cut; and it solves the primal and the dual problems simultaneously. We prove the convergence of this algorithm in two steps. First, we show that the algorithm can find an-optimal solution after finitely many iterations. Then, we use this result to show that it can find an optimal solution in the limit. We also estimate how good an-optimal solution is compared to an optimal solution and give an upper bound on the total number of iterations needed for finding an-optimal solution under some assumptions. This algorithm is generalized to solve a class of nonlinear semi-infinite programming problems. Applications to convex programming are discussed.     

Decision making with interval probabilities

Handling uncertainty by interval probabilities is recently receiving considerable attention by researchers. Interval probabilities are used when it is difficult to characterize the uncertainty by point-valued probabilities due to partially known information. Most of researches related to interval probabilities, such as combination, marginalization, condition, Bayesian inferences and decision, assume that interval probabilities are known. How to elicit interval probabilities from subjective judgment is a basic and important problem for the applications of interval probability theory and till now a computational challenge. In this work, the models for estimating and combining interval probabilities are proposed as linear and quadratic programming problems, which can be easily solved. The concepts including interval probabilities, interval entropy, interval expectation, interval variance, interval moment, and the decision criteria with interval probabilities are addressed. A numerical example of newsvendor problem is employed to illustrate our approach. The analysis results show that the proposed methods provide a novel and effective alternative for decision making when point-valued subjective probabilities are inapplicable due to partially known information.     

Interactive fuzzy decision making method for solving bilevel programming problem

In this paper, an interactive fuzzy decision making method is proposed for solving bilevel programming problem. Introducing a new balance function, we consider the overall satisfactory balance between the leader and the follower. Then, a satisfactory solution can be obtained by the proposed method. Finally, numerical examples are reported to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed method.     

Interior-point algorithms for semi-infinite programming

In order to study the behavior of interior-point methods on very large-scale linear programming problems, we consider the application of such methods to continuous semi-infinite linear programming problems in both primal and dual form. By considering different discretizations of such problems we are led to a certain invariance property for (finite-dimensional) interior-point methods. We find that while many methods are invariant, several, including all those with the currently best complexity bound, are not. We then devise natural extensions of invariant methods to the semi-infinite case. Our motivation comes from our belief that for a method to work well on large-scale linear programming problems, it should be effective on fine discretizations of a semi-infinite problem and it should have a natural extension to the limiting semi-infinite case.Research supported in part by NSF, AFORS and ONR through NSF grant DMS-8920550.     

On ℓp programming

Our paper treats the primal and dual program of ?_p programming. ?_p programming is a generalization of ?_p approximation problems. There is a strict connection between ?_p programming and geometrical programming, because in both of them geometrical inequality plays a fundamental role. The structure of our paper follows that of Klafszkys [1].In the first Sections duality theorems are proved, which play an important role in mathematical programming. Most of these results can be found in Petersons and Eckers [3,4,5], but our proofs are much more simple and we show these fundamental properties more detailed.Afterwards the relation between the Lagrange function and the optimal solution pair is investigated. Regularity is investigated as well and we show the marginal value of ?_p programming. In the end linear programming ?_p constrained ?_p approximation problems, the quadratically constrained quadratic programming and compromise programming are shown as special cases of ?_p programming.     

Ordering fuzzy sets over the real line: An approach based on decision making under uncertainty

The ordering of fuzzy sets over the real line is approached from the point of view of ordering intervals rather than ordering numbers. First, the maximax and maximin criteria which are commonly used for ordering intervals are expressed in terms of characteristic functions. These criteria and the Hurwicz criterion for decision making under complete ignorance are then reformulated in a manner that allows for their generalization to the fuzzy case. Transitivity is established for these ordering rules. A criterion based on the principle of diminishing marginal utility is also presented.     

A dual-interval vertex analysis method and its application to environmental decision making under uncertainty

In this study, a dual-interval vertex analysis (DIVA) method is developed, through incorporating the vertex method within an interval-parameter programming framework. The developed DIVA method can tackle uncertainties presented as dual intervals that exist in the objective function and the left- and right-hand sides of the modeling constraints. An interactive algorithm and a vertex analysis approach are proposed for solving the DIVA model. Solutions under an associated α-cut level can be generated by solving a series of deterministic submodels. They can help quantify relationships between the objective function value and the membership grade, which is meaningful for supporting in-depth analyses of tradeoffs between environmental and economic objectives as well as those between system optimality and reliability. A management problem in terms of regional air pollution control is studied to illustrate applicability of the proposed approach. The results indicate that useful solutions for planning the air quality management practices have been generated. They can help decision makers to identify desired pollution-abatement strategies with minimized costs and maximized environmental efficiencies.     

Fractional programming approach to fuzzy weighted average

This paper proposes a fractional programming approach to construct the membership function for fuzzy weighted average. Based on the -cut representation of fuzzy sets and the extension principle, a pair of fractional programs is formulated to find the -cut of fuzzy weighted average. Owing to the special structure of the fractional programs, in most cases, the optimal solution can be found analytically. Consequently, the exact form of the membership function can be derived by taking the inverse function of the -cut. For other cases, a discrete but exact solution to fuzzy weighted average is provided via an efficient solution method. Examples are given for illustration.     

Relative importance of criteria in multiobjective programming: A cone-based approach

This article develops a convex polyhedral cone-based preference modeling framework for decision making with multiple criteria which extends the classical notion of Pareto optimality and accounts for relative importance of the criteria. The decision maker’s perception of the relative importance is quantified by an allowable tradeoffs between two objectives representing the maximum allowable amount of decay of a less important objective per one unit of improvement of a more important objective. Two cone-based models of relative importance are developed. In the first model, one criterion is designated as less important while all the others are more important. In the second model, more than one criterion may be classified as less important while all the others are considered more important. Complete algebraic characterization of the models is derived and the relationship between them and the classical Pareto preference is examined. Their relevance to decision making is discussed.