北京市水资源利用建模分析研究

以北京市为例,分别应用无偏灰色GM(1,1)模型和非线性模型对北京市2001年-2010年的用水量进行了建模,利用最优化方法,计算了上述两种模型的最优组合模型,通过三种模型分别计算了北京市2001年-2010年的水资源利用量,并与北京市2001年-2010年的实际用水量进行了对比,采用精度检验方法,分别对无偏灰色模型,非线性模型和组合模型进行了精度检验,计算结果表明,加权组合模型是三种模型中精度最高的模型,通过组合模型计算得出的用水量值与实际水资源利用量相比误差最小,由此得出,可以利用组合模型对北京市未来的水资源利用量进行预测,预测结果可为其他相关研究提供参考.     

人口迁移模型的改进及系统动力学仿真预测

求出了Keyfitz模型和Rogers模型的理论解,并以Rogers模型为例,对人口迁移模型进行了改进,使之适用范围更广.在人口迁移模型的基础上,建立了系统动力学模型,并对江西省的人口迁移问题进行了仿真预测,模拟出了江西省农村人口、城镇人口及城市化率的变化趋势.     

成比例附加故障混合模型

Frailty模型和可加故障模型在研究各种风险因素与疾病发生原因的关系中提供了两种重要的方法.在不知哪个模型更适合数据时,涵盖这两个模型的成比例附加故障模型提供了一个备选模型.Frailty基本上是观察不到的,需要考虑对应的混合模型.本文研究了成比例附加故障混合模型的年龄性质、相依性质.并对该模型中的那些随机变量进行了随机比较.     

房地产行业的数学建模分析

分别建立了需求模型,供给模型,房地产与其他产业的关系模型,房价模型及房地产发展趋势的预测模型,并对影响模型的相应因素做了简要的分析.     

经济增长的随机AK模型

本文以经济增长AK模型(模型Ⅰ)作为基本模型,将人口数量作为不确定性的来源,建立了经济增长的随机AK模型(模型Ⅱ).分析了模型Ⅱ解的存在唯一性和M arkov性,探讨了模型Ⅱ的零均衡解的稳定性及资本-劳动比率的动态性质.     

贝叶斯网络仿真元模型及其在装备战场损伤仿真中的应用研究

结合装备战场损伤仿真系统,研究了贝叶斯网络仿真元模型的构建方法.从条件概率角度描述了仿真模型输入参数与输出参数之间的映射关系,研究了构建贝叶斯网络仿真元模型的可行性,分析了贝叶斯网络仿真元模型的优点;研究了贝叶斯网络仿真元模型构建过程中的关键问题,包括:元模型参数的确定、原始模型参数向贝叶斯网络节点的转化、联结强度的计算、衍生元模型的构建;针对不完全信息条件下装备战场损伤快速定位问题,研究了基于K2算法的贝叶斯网络仿真元模型构建方法;构建了某型高炮的战场损伤贝叶斯网络仿真元模型.     

一类多指标对象评价模型

以C2R模型为基础给出了一类多指标对象评价模型——C2RM模型.我们首先定义了决策单元的优势集,论证了C2RM模型比一类多目标规划模型在优化意义上更进一步——排除了此类多目标规划模型的一些优势集为空的Pareto有效解.我们建立的C2RM模型是线性规划模型,易于判定一个决策单元是否DEA有效.在优势集性质基础上我们进一步定义了C2RM模型下DEA有效决策单元的实际有效率,并给出了所有决策单元的一种排序,最后举例予以说明.     

基于可信性理论的投资组合优化问题研究

建立了基于可信性理论的投资组合模型,包括风险最小的单目标均值-方差模型和收益最大的单目标均值-方差模型,运用拉格朗日乘数法对两个模型进行了求解,给出了2个模型解析解的表达式,并通过数值算例验证了模型的可行性.对两个模型的结果进行对比,发现风险最小化和收益最大化的单目标均值—方差模型得到的结果基本吻合.     

差分形式的Gompertz模型及相关问题研究

在连续Gompertz模型基础上,导出了差分形式的Gompertz模型。通过对肿瘤生长数据的模拟,验证了差分形式的Gompertz模型对连续Gompertz模型具有良好的逼近效果;进一步,对其稳定性进行了研究,讨论了模型参数对平衡点稳定性的影响;最后,研究了一类基于差分形式的Gompertz模型的非线性动力系统的长期行为,数值模拟表明差分形式的Gompertz模型的长期行为对模型参数较为敏感。     

多图模型的联合估计的群桥方法

高斯图模型研究独立随机变量之间的关系.主要针对该模型,提出了一种分层惩罚连接单个图模型估计的多图模型.研究了新模型的高维统计性质,给出模型的参数估计,并得到了相合性及稀疏性两大理论.     

基于时间Petri网的供应链网络关键路径分析

讨论了供应链网络中如何选择优化路径的问题,提出采用时间P etri网对供应链网络关键路径建模的方法.此方法根据顾客需要货物的情况,有条件地选取供应链网络图中可跨越活动和可替换分支,将网络图分别描述成Ebs图和Ew f图,结合时间P etri网的可达算法,求得Ebs和Ew f的关键路径.通过基本供应链的分析,得到网络的优化路径.     

一类基于随机着色Petri网的多级供应链可靠性模型研究

由多种要索组成的供应链系统在实际运作过程中必须符合可靠性要求。供应链系统由于内外部的不确定性，特别是外部需求不确定性而与其他可靠性系统有所不同。本文在考虑其可靠性问题的条件下，提出了一种随机着色Petri网来对供应链系统可靠性问题进行建模分析。     

基于奇偶校验的Petri网控制器的故障检测

提出基于奇偶校验的方法对Petri网控制器进行故障检测.设计出满足包含标识向量和Parikh向量的线性约束的Petri网控制器;建立一个包含一定数量库所的附加Petri网控制器以满足奇偶校验的编码要求;分别针对库所故障和变迁故障,选用不同的奇偶校验参数进行故障检测,并通过实例详细阐明了故障检测的过程.     

基于面向对象Petri网的业务流程建模方法研究

在信息系统开发过程中，信息系统建模的方法和模型的表示问题十分重要。本通过对面向对象Petri网的讨论，阐述了利用面向对象Petri网建立业务流程模型的基本问题，并给出了模型的计算机表示和存储方法。     

The design of a controller in Fuzzy Petri net

This paper designs a class of Fuzzy Petri net controller based on the character of place invariant in Petri net. This controller is simple in operation and is easy to put into practice. It has satisfying effects and can provide methods to do research in designing and optimizing the performance of system in solving the dead lock phenomenon in concurrent system.     

Modeling the process of human body iron homeostasis using a variant of timed Petri nets

The body iron homeostasis is one of the most important processes in the human body. This complex process is not fully understood and until recently only some parts of it have been described in the literature. In our recent papers the main part of the process has been described and a model based on Petri net theory has been proposed. However, in this model any time dependencies occurring in the biochemical process have not been taken into account. In the present paper the model is enriched in the way that durations of biochemical reactions composing this process have been included into the model. A variant of Petri net where with each place a time interval is associated has been used in order to describe these dependencies. The time interval associated with a place corresponds to a time lag of biochemical conditions which must be fulfilled in order to enable a biochemical reaction to start.     

Quantitative analysis of continuous weighted marked graphs

This paper deals with the computation of the asymptotic firing rate vector and the stationary marking of continuous weighted marked graphs under infinite servers semantics. The continuous weighted marked graphs are a particular class of continuous Petri net where each place has exactly one input and one output transition. First, we give an explicit formula to compute the asymptotic firing rate vector of transitions using the structure of the given net. Then, under the assumption that there exists only one critical circuit in the strongly connected continuous neutral weighted marked graphs, an original approach to compute the vector of stationary marking is presented. Finally, an application to a flexible manufacturing system is given.     

A Petri net approach to the modelling and analysis of flexible manufacturing systems

In this paper we present an approach for modelling and analyzing flexible manufacturing systems (FMSs) using Petri nets. In this approach, we first build a Petri net model (PNM) of the given FMS in a bottom-up fashion and then analyze important qualitative aspects of FMS behaviour such as existence/absence of deadlocks and buffer overflows. The basis for our approach is a theorem we state and prove for computing the invariants of the union of a finite number of Petri nets when the invariants of the individual nets are known. We illustrate our approach using two typical manufacturing systems: an automated transfer line and a simple FMS.A shorter version of this paper was presented at the 1st ORSA/TIMS Special Interest Conference on FMSs, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, August 1984.     

矿尘影响下生态系统脆弱性级联传播模型分析

为了解决矿尘连续排放并迁移对地表生态系统造成的脆弱性问题,提出了基于函数地理Petri网的脆弱性级联传播模型。综合考虑污染物迁移方向和生态环境在地理空间上的关联关系,直观地构造了基于级联传播的污染Petri网。在此基础上,定义了基于VCPM的脆弱度和阈值的概念,利用两者的关系进行脆弱性级联传播分析,从而明确级联传播的三种状态。最后,以神府煤田矿尘迁移作为污染物连续排放的污染源,通过模型方法的模拟仿真分析,对生态环境系统在级联传播下的脆弱性进行了深入探讨。已有的研究方法和结果不仅在生态环境脆弱性研究领域做出了新的贡献,而且为环境的修复和重建提供了参考价值。     

Specification and verification of safety properties along a crossing region in a railway network control

Modeling the controller of the railway network, having resource sharing based on mutual exclusion constraints, is an important problem. This paper firstly addresses the specification of safety properties for the model of a complex railway crossing. The operations, i.e., occupied, free and block, are formalized to describe the safety properties along railway crossing. Second, to develop the control model of the crossing system we construct the subnet representing the train flow along the tracks in the crossing region and the set of monitors or supervisors are also modeled as subnets. Arc-constant colored Petri net (ac-CPN) is used to construct the train flow subnet while the monitors are modeled using the place/transition-net. Arc-constant colored Petri net enforces the specification of not to shift the train from a track to another one. Bottom-up approach is adopted to model the control for railway crossing as a synchronous synthesis of the subnets is applied to build the final model. Finally, to verify the safety properties in the developed controller, the coverability tree method is used for the analysis of the final model.