VOLE POPULATION DYNAMICS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SPECIALIST AND GENERALIST PREDATION

Abstract To understand the impact of predation by different types of predators on the vole population dynamics, we formulate a three differential equation model describing the population dynamics of voles, the “specialist predator” and the “generalist predator.” First we perform a local stability study of the different steady states of the basic model and deduce that the predation rates of the “specialist” as well as the “generalist” predator are the main parameters controlling the existence/extinction criteria of the concerned populations. Next we analyze the model from a thermodynamic perspective and study the thermodynamic stability of the different equilibria. Finally using stochastic driving forces, we incorporate the exogenous factor of environmental forcing and investigate the stochastic stability of the system. We compare the stability criteria of the different steady states under deterministic, thermodynamic and stochastic situations. The analysis reveals that when the “specialist” and the “generalist” predator are modeled separately, the system exhibits rich dynamics and the predation rates of both types of predators play a major role in controlling vole oscillation and/or stability. These findings are also seen to resemble closely with the observed behavior of voles in the natural setting. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate analytical findings.     

“公司+农户”型订单农业供应链“双向补贴”机制研究

基于订单农业特点,构建“公司+农户”型订单农业供应链决策模型。研究发现,订单农业传统价格机制:按“固定价格”收购、按“市场价格”收购、“随行就市,保底收购”,各具优缺点,但均未能很好地协调此类“公司+农户”型订单农业供应链,我国订单农业违约率也是居高不下。为此,提出一种 “双向补贴”价格机制来协调此类订单农业供应链。本研究结果表明,“双向补贴”价格机制能够很好地弥补了按“固定价格”,“市场价格”收购的缺陷,保证了农户和公司获得相对稳定的收入,提高了“公司+农户”型订单农业供应链的稳定性。同时,实施该协调机制后,改善了公司在“随行就市,保底收购”机制下要承担全部风险的缺陷,公司和农户实现了“收益共享,风险同担”。     

基于信号博弈的“公司+农户”模式中农产品质量研究

针对目前食品安全事件层出不穷的现状,本文利用信号博弈模型,讨论了“公司+农户”组织模式中导致农户发生机会主义行为的影响因素。通过对基本模型的分析,发现隐瞒生产信息所需要花费的粉饰成本是影响市场出现分离均衡或混同均衡的关键因素。通过对引入抽检后的扩展模型进行分析发现,如果外围市场处罚较小,并不能覆盖低质量农产品的利润与公司检验成本之和时,那么公司进行抽检的动力不大,或者即使抽检,市场中仍旧有违禁农产品的存在。最后讨论了在“公司+农户”模式中,如何提高农产品质量的方法和措施。     

RUMINATIONS ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND FUTURE OF POPULATION DYNAMICS MODELS IN FISHERIES

ABSTRACT. I trace the development of fisheries models (i.e., fish population dynamics models of species subject to fisheries) to the 21st century. The first real efforts occurred in the period 1900 1920 with the work of Baranov (the “Grandfather” of fisheries population dynamics) and the formation of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). The establishment of the science occurred between 1920 1960 with multi‐species modeling, age‐ and size‐structure dynamics, and production models. Fundamental work during this time was done by Ricker (the “Father” of fisheries population dynamics), Beverton and Holt (the “Prophets” of fisheries population dynamics), Chapman, Dickie, DeLury, Graham, Gulland, Leslie, Lotka and Volterra, Russell, Schaefer, and Thompson. During this time, most of the workwas deterministic and mathematical. Between 1960 and 1980, statistical methodology evolved greatly but was separate from mathematical advances for the most part. The development of statistical principles for the estimation of animal abundance was further enhanced by Arnason, Buckland, Burnham and Anderson and White, Cormack, Eberhardt, Jolly, Manly, Pollock, Ricker, Robson, and Seber, among others. Fisheries models evolved in a deterministic setting, with advances in age‐structured models (Gulland, Pope, Doubleday), surplus production models (Pella, Tomlin‐son, Schnute, Fletcher, Hilborn), growth models, bioeconomic models (C. Clark) and management control models (Hilborn, Walters). The period 1980 2000 was the Golden Age. The integration between mathematics and statistics occurred when likelihood and least squares techniques were formally combined with mathematical models of population change. The number of fisheries modelers grew exponentially during this time, resulting in a concomitant increase in publications. A major advance in the 1990s has been the development of Bayesian and time series methods, which have allowed explicit specification of uncertainty. Currently, theory allows realistic modeling of age‐ and size‐structured populations, migratory populations and harvesting strategies. These models routinely incorporate measurement error, process error (stochasticity) and time variation. But data needs often overwhelm the performance of models, and greater demands are being placed on models to answer complex questions. There has been poor communication between fisheries and ecological modelers, between fisheries researchers and statisticians, and among fisheries researchers in different geographic locales. Future models will need to deal better with habitat and spatial concerns, genetics, multispecies interactions, environmental factors, effects of harvesting on the ecosystem, model misspecification and so‐cioeconomic concerns. Meta‐analysis, retrospective analysis and operating models are some modern approaches for dealing with uncertainty and providing for sustainable fisheries. However, I fear that current attacks on single‐species models and management may result in rejection of these advances and an attempt to substitute a less scientific approach.     

收购价不确定下订单农业供应链融资方式选择——外部融资VS内部融资

基于“保底收购,随行就市”的订单价格机制,构建了“公司+农户”型订单农业供应链模型,求解了外部融资均衡和内部融资均衡,分析了收购公司和农户对外部融资方式和内部融资方式的选择意愿以及订单农业供应链的融资方式选择结果。研究发现,公司总是希望农户选择期望回报率低的融资方式,然而自有资金高的农户却偏爱期望回报率高的融资方式,这是因为期望回报率高时农户会降低投产量,而公司为激励农户会提高保底价,此时对农户而言保底价增大带来的收益要大于期望回报率增加带来的损失,但供应链整体利益却受到损害。最重要的是,公司出台内部融资的补贴和额外收费政策可以实现供应链双方的共赢。     

Canonical approximation of fitness landscapes

We present a method for approximating a fitness landscape as a superposition of “elementary” landscapes. Given a correlation function of the landscape in question we show that the relative amplitudes of contributions with p-ary interactions can be computed. We show an application to RNA free energy landscapes. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A MODEL FOR THE BIOECONOMIC EVALUATION OF MARINE PROTECTED AREA SIZE AND PLACEMENT IN THE NORTH SEA

ABSTRACT. The use of marine protected areas (MPAs) as a basic management tool to limit exploitation rates in marine fisheries has been widely suggested. Models are important in predicting the consequences of management decisions and the design of monitoring programs in terms of policy goals. However, few tools are available that consider both multiple fleets and ecosystem scale dynamics. We use a new applied game theory tool, Ecoseed, that operates within a temporally and spatially explicit biomass dynamics model, Ecopath with Ecosim, to evaluate the efficacy of marine protected areas in the North Sea in both ecological and economic terms. The Ecoseed model builds MPAs based on the change in values of predicted economic rents of fisheries and the existence value of biomass pools in the ecosystem. We consider the market values of four fisheries operating in the North Sea: a trawl fishery, a gill net fishery, a seine fishery, and an industrial (reduction) fishery. We apply existence values, scaled such that their aggregate is similar to the total fishery value, to six biomass pools of concern: juvenile cod, haddock, whiting, saithe, seals, and the collective pool ‘Other predators’ that include marine mammals. Four policy options were considered: to maximize the rent only; to maximize the existence values only; to maximize the sum of the rent and existence values; and, finally, to maximize the sum of the rent and the existence values, but excluding only the trawl fleet from the MPA. The Ecoseed model suggests that policy goals that do not include ecological considerations can negatively impact the rents obtained by the different fishing sectors. The existence values will also be negatively impacted unless the MPA is very large. The Ecoseed model also suggests that policy goals based solely on existence values will negatively impact most fisheries. Under policy options that included ecological considerations, maximum benefits were derived from an MPA that covered 25–40% of the North Sea, placed along the southern and eastern coasts. Finally, the Ecoseed model suggests that an exclusion of the trawl fishery only from the MPA can provide small‐to‐substantial positive impacts to most species and fleets; this relative impact depends on level of interaction between the trawl fleet and the other fleets target species (e.g., through bycatch).     

COALITION FORMATION IN A GLOBAL WARMING GAME: HOW THE DESIGN OF PROTOCOLS AFFECTS THE SUCCESS OF ENVIRONMENTAL TREATY‐MAKING

ABSTRACT. We combine new concepts of noncooperative coalition theory with an integrated assessment model on climate change to analyze the impact of different protocol designs on the success of coalition formation. We analyze the role of “single versus multiple coalitions,”“open versus exclusive membership,”“no, weak and strong consensus about membership” and “no transfers versus transfers.” First, we want to find out whether and how modifications of the standard assumptions affect results that are associated with the widely applied cartel formation game in the noncooperative game theoretic analysis of international environmental agreements. Second, we discuss normative policy conclusions that emerge from the various modifications. Third, we confront our results with evidence on past international environmental treaties and derive an agenda for future research.     

The mechanics of contentious politics: an agent-based modeling approach

ABSTRACT

“Contentious politics” has become the main label to define a wide range of previously separated fields of research encompassing topics such as collective action, radicalization, armed insurgencies, and terrorism. Over the past two decades, scholars have tried to bring these various strands together into a unified field of study. In so doing, they have developed a methodology to isolate and analyze the common social and cognitive mechanisms underlying several diverse historical phenomena such as “insurgencies,” “revolutions,” “radicalization,” or “terrorism.” A multidisciplinary approach was adopted open to contributions from diverse fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. The aim of this paper is to add to the multidisciplinarity of the field of Contentious Politics (CP) and introduce the instruments of Agent-Based Modeling and network game-theory to the study of some fundamental mechanisms analyzed within this literature. In particular, the model presented in this paper describes the dynamics of one process, here defined as “the radicalization of politics,” and its main underlying mechanisms. Their mechanics are analyzed in diverse social contexts differentiated by the values of four parameters: the extent of repression, inequality, social tolerance, and interconnectivity. The model can be used to explain the basic dynamics underlying different phenomena such as the development of radicalization, populism, and popular rebellions. In the final part, different societies characterized by diverse values of the aforementioned four parameters are tested through Python simulations, thereby offering an overview of the different outcomes that the mechanics of our model can shape according to the contexts in which they operate.     

Demand estimation with failure and capacity constraints: An application to prisons

A stochastic model for projecting demand for a population-driven, input-output facility that incorporates demographic changes, facility returns representing “failures”, and capacity constraints is proposed and demonstrated. The model is applied to the problem of prison population projection. The approach models the flow of inmates through the prison system, exploits the differences in the incarceration hazard rates of individuals in the general population and those who have been incarcerated previously, and explicitly considers the impact of constrained prison capacity on release policy and future admissions. First-time arrivals to prison are modeled as a Poisson process arising from the general population; recidivist arrivals are modeled using a failure model, where the reincarceration hazard rate is a function of age and race. The model is demonstrated for the State of North Carolina. The effect of limited prison capacity on the average time served is shown. Further, the results demonstrate that an early release policy will generate an increase in prison admissions through t'he return to prison of former inmates. The implications for current “get tough” sentencing policy initiatives relative to the prison crowding problem, the length of stay for offenders not included in the new policies, and the recursive effect of these policies on the input-output dynamics are considered. The results suggest the tradeoffs that exist between early release policies and capacity limitations.     

DYNAMICS OF AN AGE‐STRUCTURED METAPOPULATION MODEL

ABSTRACT. We introduce a metapopulation model that includes both landscape changes (patch destruction and recreation) and age‐dependent metapopulation dynamics. A threshold quantity is derived and related to the existence of an ecologically nontrivial equilibrium, to the stability of the species‐free equilibrium, and to weak and strong persistence of the species. We provide examples to illustrate how age‐related changes in patch colonization and extinction rates can alter metapopulation persistence. Future field studies may need to address the temporal dynamics that characterize local populations in fragmented landscapes.     

ANALYSIS OF SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN AN INDIVIDUAL‐BASED MODEL OF A THREATENED WILDLIFE SPECIES

Sensitivity analysis—determination of how prediction variables affect response variables—of individual‐based models (IBMs) are few but important to the interpretation of model output. We present sensitivity analysis of a spatially explicit IBM (HexSim) of a threatened species, the Northern Spotted Owl (NSO; Strix occidentalis caurina) in Washington, USA. We explored sensitivity to HexSim variables representing habitat quality, movement, dispersal, and model architecture; previous NSO studies have well established sensitivity of model output to vital rate variation. We developed “normative” (expected) model settings from field studies, and then varied the values of ≥ 1 input parameter at a time by ±10% and ±50% of their normative values to determine influence on response variables of population size and trend. We determined time to population equilibration and dynamics of populations above and below carrying capacity. Recovery time from small population size to carrying capacity greatly exceeded decay time from an overpopulated condition, suggesting lag time required to repopulate newly available habitat. Response variables were most sensitive to input parameters of habitat quality which are well‐studied for this species and controllable by management. HexSim thus seems useful for evaluating potential NSO population responses to landscape patterns for which good empirical information is available.     

The diffusive Lotka–Volterra competition model in fragmented patches I: Coexistence

It is an ecological imperative that we understand how changes in landscape heterogeneity affect population dynamics and coexistence among species residing in increasingly fragmented landscapes. Decades of research have shown the dispersal process to have major implications for individual fitness, species’ distributions, interactions with other species, population dynamics, and stability. Although theoretical models have played a crucial role in predicting population level effects of dispersal, these models have largely ignored the conditional dependency of dispersal (e.g., responses to patch boundaries, matrix hostility, competitors, and predators). This work is the first in a series where we explore dynamics of the diffusive Lotka–Volterra (L–V) competition model in such a fragmented landscape. This model has been extensively studied in isolated patches, and to a lesser extent, in patches surrounded by an immediately hostile matrix. However, little attention has been focused on studying the model in a more realistic setting considering organismal behavior at the patch/matrix interface. Here, we provide a mechanistic connection between the model and its biological underpinnings and study its dynamics via exploration of nonexistence, existence, and uniqueness of the model’s steady states. We employ several tools from nonlinear analysis, including sub-supersolutions, certain eigenvalue problems, and a numerical shooting method. In the case of weak, neutral, and strong competition, our results mostly match those of the isolated patch or immediately hostile matrix cases. However, in the case where competition is weak towards one species and strong towards the other, we find existence of a maximum patch size, and thus an intermediate range of patch sizes where coexistence is possible, in a patch surrounded by an intermediate hostile matrix when the weaker competitor has a dispersal advantage. These results support what ecologists have long theorized, i.e., a key mechanism promoting coexistence among competing species is a tradeoff between dispersal and competitive ability.     

THE DYNAMICS OF AN ANIMAL—VEGETATION SYSTEM: SHEEP FARMING

The paper studies the economy and ecology of sheep farming at the farm level in a Nordic context, with a crucial distinction between the outdoors grazing season and the winter indoors feeding season, and where climate conditions fix the length of the grazing season. Two different categories of animals, ewes (adult females) and lambs, and one plant species are included in our ecological model. The farmer is assumed to maximize present‐value profit where the revenue is made up income from meat and wool production. We find that livestock cycles may represent an optimal management policy. We also show that in a possible steady state with a constant number of animals and constant vegetation quantity, slaughtering either only lambs or only ewes is optimal.     

Tree-valued resampling dynamics Martingale problems and applications

The measure-valued Fleming–Viot process is a diffusion which models the evolution of allele frequencies in a multi-type population. In the neutral setting the Kingman coalescent is known to generate the genealogies of the “individuals” in the population at a fixed time. The goal of the present paper is to replace this static point of view on the genealogies by an analysis of the evolution of genealogies. We encode the genealogy of the population as an (isometry class of an) ultra-metric space which is equipped with a probability measure. The space of ultra-metric measure spaces together with the Gromov-weak topology serves as state space for tree-valued processes. We use well-posed martingale problems to construct the tree-valued resampling dynamics of the evolving genealogies for both the finite population Moran model and the infinite population Fleming–Viot diffusion. We show that sufficient information about any ultra-metric measure space is contained in the distribution of the vector of subtree lengths obtained by sequentially sampled “individuals”. We give explicit formulas for the evolution of the Laplace transform of the distribution of finite subtrees under the tree-valued Fleming–Viot dynamics.     

“双积分”政策下考虑燃油车减排的汽车制造商价格博弈研究

考虑供给侧为双寡头车企组成的汽车卖场,以没有“双积分”政策约束作为参照条件,构建有“双积分”政策约束时燃油车是否减排的模型,分别对其进行Bertrand博弈求解分析,从定价视角探讨“双积分”政策对燃油车和新能源汽车发展的作用机制,并通过数值分析进一步直观验证“双积分”政策的作用效果。研究表明:每台新能源汽车积分值设置过大不利于促进燃油车减排水平的提高,且存在合理的新能源汽车积分值区间,可以实现“既鼓励先进,又制约落后”的双重目的。“双积分”政策对涉及燃油车生产的制造商不利,当每台新能源汽车积分值较小时,其获得的利润较无“双积分”政策约束时减小;对仅生产新能源汽车的制造商有利,其获得的利润总是较无“双积分”政策约束时增大。     

A STRONG ERGODIC THEOREM FOR SOME NONLINEAR MATRIX MODELS FOR THE DYNAMICS OF STRUCTURED POPULATIONS

A general class of matrix difference equation models for the dynamics of discrete class structured populations in discrete time which possess a certain general type of nonlinearity introduced by Leslie for age-structured populations is considered. Arbitrary structuring is allowed in that transitions between any two classes are permitted. It is shown that normalized class distributions for such nonlinear models globally approach a “stable class distribution” and thus possess a strong ergodic property exactly like that of the classical linear theory of demography. However, unlike in the linear theory according to which the total population size grows or dies exponentially, the dynamics of total population size in these nonlinear models are shown to be governed by a nonlinear, nonautonomous scalar difference equation. This difference equation is asymptotically autonomous, and theorems which relate the dynamics of total population size to those of this limiting equation are proved. Examples in which the results are applied to some nonlinear age-structure models found in the literature are given.     

OPTIMAL TRAPPING STRATEGIES FOR DIFFUSING NUISANCE-BEAVER POPULATIONS

This paper examines dynamically optimal trapping strategies for a resident beaver population causing damage to privately-held timber land. An extreme elimination strategy does not account for the dispersive behavior of neighboring beaver populations in filling the resulting environmental vacuum. This negative externality is accounted for by embedding an ecological model of small-mammal dispersive dynamics into an optimization framework minimizing the sum of discounted timber damage and trapping costs. The optimal balance that timber producers must strike between the benefits of leaving sufficient resident numbers to deter foreign invasions and the costs of timber damage caused by these “protectors” is characterized.     

含奇线(奇面)二阶线性偏微分方程的解在奇线(奇面)附近的性质

本文的第一部分研究了含奇线方程的解在奇线附近的性质;引进了“指数”的概念,从而给出了关于这类方程的“奇型郭西问题”的正确提法;并且通过一种特殊的积分-征分方程的研究,证明了这种“奇型郭西问题”的解的存在性,并且给出其近似解法;最后,就一般的情形,给出了方程一般解的表达式,从而说明了在β+β′<0时,郭西问题的多解性。本文的第二部分研究了空间含奇面方程(?)其中 A_σ是任一祇与变元σ=(σ_1…,σ_n)有关的算子,并且关于(15.5)的奇型郭西问题的解可以用关于方程(不合奇面)(?)(15.6)的郭西问题的解表示出来。同样的方法可用来解决空间却普里金方程(17.1)的郭西问题。     

Is the definition of mathematics as used in the PISA assessment Framework applicable to the HarmoS Project?

The project known as the “Harmonisation of the Obligatory School”, or in its shortened form as “HarmoS”, has a high priority for Switzerland's educational policy in the coming years. Its purpose is to determine levels of competency, valid throughout Switzerland, for specific areas of study and including the subject of mathematics. The general theoretical basis of the overall HarmoS Project is constituted by the expertise written under the direction of Eckhard Klieme and entitled “Zur Entwicklung nationaler Bildungsstandards” (Klieme 2003) [i.e. “On the Development of National Education Standards”]. The proposal announcing the HarmoS partial project devoted to Mathematics includes references to the results and subsequent analysis of PISA 2003. It thus seems appropriate for us to begin our work on HarmoS with a critical consideration of the definition of mathematics and mathematical literacy as they are used in the PISA Study. In a first part, we want to describe the core ideas of HarmoS. In a second part, we will address the meaning of general educational goals for the development of competency models and education standards to the extent that it is necessary to properly locate our problem. In a third part we will analyse the concept of mathematics which is at the basis of the PISA Study (OECD 2004) and more precisely defined in the publication “Assessment Framework” (OECD 2003) In the fourth and last part, we will try to provide a differentiated answer to the question posed in the title of this paper.