A MODEL FOR THE BIOECONOMIC EVALUATION OF MARINE PROTECTED AREA SIZE AND PLACEMENT IN THE NORTH SEA

ABSTRACT. The use of marine protected areas (MPAs) as a basic management tool to limit exploitation rates in marine fisheries has been widely suggested. Models are important in predicting the consequences of management decisions and the design of monitoring programs in terms of policy goals. However, few tools are available that consider both multiple fleets and ecosystem scale dynamics. We use a new applied game theory tool, Ecoseed, that operates within a temporally and spatially explicit biomass dynamics model, Ecopath with Ecosim, to evaluate the efficacy of marine protected areas in the North Sea in both ecological and economic terms. The Ecoseed model builds MPAs based on the change in values of predicted economic rents of fisheries and the existence value of biomass pools in the ecosystem. We consider the market values of four fisheries operating in the North Sea: a trawl fishery, a gill net fishery, a seine fishery, and an industrial (reduction) fishery. We apply existence values, scaled such that their aggregate is similar to the total fishery value, to six biomass pools of concern: juvenile cod, haddock, whiting, saithe, seals, and the collective pool ‘Other predators’ that include marine mammals. Four policy options were considered: to maximize the rent only; to maximize the existence values only; to maximize the sum of the rent and existence values; and, finally, to maximize the sum of the rent and the existence values, but excluding only the trawl fleet from the MPA. The Ecoseed model suggests that policy goals that do not include ecological considerations can negatively impact the rents obtained by the different fishing sectors. The existence values will also be negatively impacted unless the MPA is very large. The Ecoseed model also suggests that policy goals based solely on existence values will negatively impact most fisheries. Under policy options that included ecological considerations, maximum benefits were derived from an MPA that covered 25–40% of the North Sea, placed along the southern and eastern coasts. Finally, the Ecoseed model suggests that an exclusion of the trawl fishery only from the MPA can provide small‐to‐substantial positive impacts to most species and fleets; this relative impact depends on level of interaction between the trawl fleet and the other fleets target species (e.g., through bycatch).     

OPTIONS FOR THE REGULATION OF MEDITERRANEAN DEMERSAL FISHERIES

Research and management actions are reviewed with respect to demersal fisheries of the Mediterranean since the Second World War, as reflected in the activities of the General Fisheries Council for the Mediterranean, (GFCM). The scientific background to the priority concern expressed for minimum size limits in the 1960's and 1970's is discussed, and in particular, the mesh selectivity experiments that formed the basis for yield per recruit calculations, with respect to the trawl fishery. More recent considerations, changing our perception of the appropriateness of size at first capture of demersal fish as a management tool in trawl fisheries, are reviewed. It is concluded that for multispecies fisheries where the first priority for fishing effort control is not respected, size limits based on size at maturity, rather than yield per recruit criteria, are more feasible, but that changes in mesh size need to take into account subsequent changes in equity between inshore and offshore fleets, and changes in species composition and areas of distribution during the life history. They also need to consider the high landed value of small fish in many Mediterranean fisheries. Alternative, or supplementary, measures to mesh size regulation that affect capture of small fish are also reviewed, including seasonal closures, closed areas, bans on trawling inshore, and regulations on minimum size at sale. A range of problems to be considered prior to deciding on an increase in mesh size are reviewed, including changes in total effort exerted, changes in increases in fishing power (and especially the impacts on the spawning stock), changes in discard rate, “meshing” of small fish, and indirect mortality during fishing. A strategy for introducing new mesh sizes is suggested, with emphasis, where possible, on the experimental approach, and on supplementary measures to control fishing effort. The paper concludes by considering an alternative paradigm to minimum size regulation for demersal fisheries management; namely, the exploitation of juvenile fish, with provision for escapement of a small proportion of large, mature fish offshore, for which exploitation rate declines and remains low. It is suggested that this strategy may be, de facto, the one prevailing in the small mesh size inshore trawl fishery prior to development of offshore fisheries. The implications of this possibility have to be considered seriously if high effort levels are to be maintained while effective size limits are raised.     

INTEGRATING MARINE PROTECTED AREAS INTO MODELS FOR FISHERY ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT

ABSTRACT. Marine protected areas (MPAs) have been proposed as an insurance policy against fishery management failures and as an integral part of an optimal management system for some fisheries. However, an incorrectly designed MPA can increase the risk of depletion of some species, and can reduce the value of the system of fisheries it impacts. MPAs may alter structural processes that relate fishery outcomes to management variables and thereby compromise the models that are used to guide decisions. New models and data gathering programs are needed to use MPAs effectively. This paper discusses the motivations and methods for incorporating explicitly spatial dynamics of both fish and fishermen into fishery models so that they can be used to assess spatial policies such as MPAs. Some important characteristics and capabilities which these models should have are outlined, and a topical review of some relevant modeling methodologies is provided.     

MODELING A RIGHTS‐BASED APPROACH FOR MANAGING HABITAT IMPACTS OF FISHERIES

ABSTRACT. Limiting adverse consequences of fishing on essential fish habitat has emerged as a key fishery management objective. The conventional approach to providing habitat protection is to create MPAs or marine reserves that prohibit all or certain types of fishing in specific areas. However, there may be more cost‐effective and flexible ways to provide habitat protection. We propose an individual habitat quota (IHQ) system for habitat conservation that would utilize economic incentives to achieve habitat conservation goals cost‐effectively. Individual quotas of habitat impact units (HIU) would be distributed to fishers with an aggregate quota set to maintain a target habitat “stock.” HIU use would be based on a proxy for marginal habitat damage. We use a dynamic, explicitly spatial fishery and habitat simulation model to explore how such a system might work. We examine how outcomes are affected by spatial heterogeneity in the fishery and the scale of habitat regulation. We find that the IHQ system is a highly cost‐effective means of ensuring a given level of habitat protection, but that spatial heterogeneity and the scale of regulation can have significant effects on the distribution of habitat protection.     

RUMINATIONS ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND FUTURE OF POPULATION DYNAMICS MODELS IN FISHERIES

ABSTRACT. I trace the development of fisheries models (i.e., fish population dynamics models of species subject to fisheries) to the 21st century. The first real efforts occurred in the period 1900 1920 with the work of Baranov (the “Grandfather” of fisheries population dynamics) and the formation of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). The establishment of the science occurred between 1920 1960 with multi‐species modeling, age‐ and size‐structure dynamics, and production models. Fundamental work during this time was done by Ricker (the “Father” of fisheries population dynamics), Beverton and Holt (the “Prophets” of fisheries population dynamics), Chapman, Dickie, DeLury, Graham, Gulland, Leslie, Lotka and Volterra, Russell, Schaefer, and Thompson. During this time, most of the workwas deterministic and mathematical. Between 1960 and 1980, statistical methodology evolved greatly but was separate from mathematical advances for the most part. The development of statistical principles for the estimation of animal abundance was further enhanced by Arnason, Buckland, Burnham and Anderson and White, Cormack, Eberhardt, Jolly, Manly, Pollock, Ricker, Robson, and Seber, among others. Fisheries models evolved in a deterministic setting, with advances in age‐structured models (Gulland, Pope, Doubleday), surplus production models (Pella, Tomlin‐son, Schnute, Fletcher, Hilborn), growth models, bioeconomic models (C. Clark) and management control models (Hilborn, Walters). The period 1980 2000 was the Golden Age. The integration between mathematics and statistics occurred when likelihood and least squares techniques were formally combined with mathematical models of population change. The number of fisheries modelers grew exponentially during this time, resulting in a concomitant increase in publications. A major advance in the 1990s has been the development of Bayesian and time series methods, which have allowed explicit specification of uncertainty. Currently, theory allows realistic modeling of age‐ and size‐structured populations, migratory populations and harvesting strategies. These models routinely incorporate measurement error, process error (stochasticity) and time variation. But data needs often overwhelm the performance of models, and greater demands are being placed on models to answer complex questions. There has been poor communication between fisheries and ecological modelers, between fisheries researchers and statisticians, and among fisheries researchers in different geographic locales. Future models will need to deal better with habitat and spatial concerns, genetics, multispecies interactions, environmental factors, effects of harvesting on the ecosystem, model misspecification and so‐cioeconomic concerns. Meta‐analysis, retrospective analysis and operating models are some modern approaches for dealing with uncertainty and providing for sustainable fisheries. However, I fear that current attacks on single‐species models and management may result in rejection of these advances and an attempt to substitute a less scientific approach.     

THE FAO PRECAUTIONARY APPROACH AFTER ALMOST 10 YEARS: HAVE WE PROGRESSED TOWARDS IMPLEMENTING SIMULATION‐TESTED FEEDBACK‐CONTROL MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS FOR FISHERIES MANAGEMENT?

ABSTRACT. It is almost ten years since the FAO Technical Consultation on the Precautionary Approach to Capture Fisheries took place in Lysekil, Sweden. One outcome from this Technical Consultation was a set of guidelines on the precautionary approach to capture fisheries and species introductions. These guidelines include the need to incorporate harvest control rules in management plans. Harvest control rules should specify what action is to be taken when specified deviations from the operational targets and constraints are observed. The specification should include minimum data requirements for the types of assessment methods to be used for decision‐making. Combinations of harvest control rules, assessment methods and data collection schemes are referred to as management procedures. It is now well‐recognized that using management procedures is likely to lead to improved conservation of fishery resources, and that they should be evaluated to assess whether they are likely to achieve the goals for fishery management given the types of uncertainties that are likely to frustrate this venture. In general, evaluation of management procedures has been based on simulation modeling. This paper reviews the progress that has been made in various fisheries jurisdictions in terms of implementing management procedures, and why and where it has proved difficult or even impossible to implement management procedures.     

EFFORT SUBSIDIES AND ENTRY DETERRENCE IN TRANSBOUNDARY FISHERIES

ABSTRACT. This paper analyzes a two-stage game, based on the Gordon-Schaefer model of the fishery, to examine the strategic entry-deterring role for effort subsidies in noncooper-ative transboundary fisheries. The game reveals that a country, whose domestic fleet has an effort cost advantage over a rival foreign fleet, may choose to subsidize domestic effort to the point that foreign entry in the fishery becomes unprofitable. Whether the outcome of the game is characterized by foreign entry deterrence or accommodation, and whether it is also characterized by a domestic effort subsidy or a tax, depends on domestic and foreign effort costs and the number of firms in each fleet. The various outcomes of the game analyzed here help to explain the persistence of subsidies in some world fisheries.     

ON DEVELOPMENT,FISHERIES AND DYNAMITE: A BRIEF REVIEW OF TROPICAL FISHERIES MANAGEMENT

Some features of underdevelopment in Third World countries are reviewed with emphasis on their impact on fisheries and fisheries management. Poverty in rural communities is highlighted as the key issue preventing rational management of tropical inshore fisheries and shown to be - along with (misguided) export-oriented development strategies - the root cause for destructive fishing techniques and environmental degradation. Some implications for modelling are outlined. A reorientation of investments towards job creation in fish-erfolk and other rural communities is advocated as the key aspect of any solution of fisheries problems in Third World countries.     

A MODEL OF CHINOOK SALMON POPULATION DYNAMICS INCORPORATING SIZE‐SELECTIVE EXPLOITATION AND INHERITANCE OF POLYGENIC CORRELATED TRAITS

Abstract Concern regarding the potential for selective fisheries to degrade desirable characteristics of exploited fish populations is growing worldwide. Although the occurrence of fishery‐induced evolution in a wild population has not been irrefutably documented, considerable theoretical and empirical evidence for that possibility exists. Environmental conditions influence survival and growth in many species and may mask comparatively subtle trends induced by selective exploitation, especially given the evolutionarily short time series of data available from many fisheries. Modeling may be the most efficient investigative tool under such conditions. Motivated by public concern that large‐mesh gillnet fisheries may be altering Chinook salmon in western Alaska, we constructed a stochastic model of the population dynamics of Chinook salmon. The model contained several individually based components and incorporated size‐selective exploitation, assortative mating, size‐dependent female fecundity, density‐dependent survival, and the heritability of size and age. Substantial reductions in mean size and age were observed under all scenarios. Concurrently reducing directional selection and increasing spawning abundance was most effective in stimulating population recovery. Use of this model has potential to improve our ability to investigate the consequences of selective exploitation and aid development of improved management strategies to more effectively sustain fish and fisheries into the future.     

A PREDICTIVE MODEL TO INFORM ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF DOUBLE‐CRESTED CORMORANTS AND FISHERIES IN MICHIGAN

The proliferation of double‐crested cormorants (DCCOs; Phalacrocorax auritus) in North America has raised concerns over their potential negative impacts on game, cultured and forage fishes, island and terrestrial resources, and other colonial water birds, leading to increased public demands to reduce their abundance. By combining fish surplus production and bird functional feeding response models, we developed a deterministic predictive model representing bird–fish interactions to inform an adaptive management process for the control of DCCOs in multiple colonies in Michigan. Comparisons of model predictions with observations of changes in DCCO numbers under management measures implemented from 2004 to 2012 suggested that our relatively simple model was able to accurately reconstruct past DCCO population dynamics. These comparisons helped discriminate among alternative parameterizations of demographic processes that were poorly known, especially site fidelity. Using sensitivity analysis, we also identified remaining critical uncertainties (mainly in the spatial distributions of fish vs. DCCO feeding areas) that can be used to prioritize future research and monitoring needs. Model forecasts suggested that continuation of existing control efforts would be sufficient to achieve long‐term DCCO control targets in Michigan and that DCCO control may be necessary to achieve management goals for some DCCO‐impacted fisheries in the state. Finally, our model can be extended by accounting for parametric or ecological uncertainty and including more complex assumptions on DCCO–fish interactions as part of the adaptive management process.     

FISHERY BENEFITS OF FULLY PROTECTED MARINE RESERVES: WHY HABITAT AND BEHAVIOR ARE IMPORTANT

ABSTRACT. Fully protected marine reserves, areas that are closed to all fishing, have attracted great interest for their potential to benefit fisheries. A wide range of models suggest reserves will be most effective for species that are relatively sedentary as adults but produce offspring that disperse widely. Adult spawning stocks will be secure from capture in reserves, while their offspring disperse freely into fishing grounds. Such species include animals like reef fish, mollusks and echino‐derms, and models typically indicate that when they are over‐fished, catches will be higher with reserves than without. By contrast, the same models suggest that reserves will be ineffective for animals that are mobile as adults species like cod, tuna or sharks. They remain vulnerable to fishing whenever they move outside reserves. Unfortunately, most models lack sufficient realism to effectively gauge reserve effects on migratory species. They usually assume that individuals are homogeneously distributed in a uniform sea and move randomly. They also assume that fishers hunt at random. Neither is true. For centuries, fishers have targeted places and times when their quarry are most vulnerable to capture. Protecting these sites could have disproportionately large effects on stocks. Furthermore, models rarely take into account possible benefits from improvements in habitat within reserves. Such changes, like increased biomass and complexity of bottom‐living organisms, could alter fish movement patterns and reduce natural mortality rates in ways that enhance reserve benefits. We present a simple model of reserve effects on a migratory fish species. The model incorporates spatial variation in vulnerability to capture and shows that strategically placed reserves can offer benefits in the form of increased spawning stock and catch, especially when fishing intensities are high. We need to develop a new generation of models that incorporate habitat and behaviour to better explore the utility of reserves for mobile species. Migratory behavior does not preclude reserves from benefiting a species, but it demands that we apply different principles in designing them. We must identify critical sites to species and develop reserve networks that focus protection on those places.     

MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN THE HIGH SEAS AND THEIR IMPACT ON INTERNATIONAL FISHING AGREEMENTS

Abstract Marine protected areas (MPAs) are gaining momentum as tools within fisheries management. Although many studies have been conducted to their use and potential, only few authors have considered their use in the High Seas. In this paper, we investigate the effects of fish growth enhancing MPAs on the formation of regional fisheries management organisations (RFMOs) for highly migratory fish stocks. We argue that in absence of enforcement MPAs constitute a weakest‐link public good, which can only be realized if everyone agrees. We combine this notion with a game theoretic model of RFMO formation to derive potentially stable RFMOs with and without MPAs. We find that MPAs generally increase the parameter range over which RFMOs are stable, and that they increase stability in a number of cases as compared to the case without MPAs. They do not necessarily induce a fully cooperative solution among all fishing nations. In summary, results of this paper suggest a positive role for MPAs in the High Seas.     

Fisheries management and operations research

Fisheries are subject to a deep-rooted problem of economic inefficiency, often referred to as the fisheries problem. The fisheries problem derives fundamentally from inappropriate social institutions controlling the fishing activity, the foremost of which is the common property arrangement. Fisheries management consists of replacing these institutions with more appropriate ones. Which institutions are most appropriate depends on the social objectives of the fisheries. There are strong economic arguments for the view that there should be only a single objective, namely to maximize the present value of the flow of benefits from the fisheries. In reality, different interest groups often push for several, often conflicting, objectives. In that case a multi-objective programming approach may be appropriate.     

FISHERIES SCIENCE AND MODELING: A LOOK TO THE FUTURE

In this paper I forecast that the fisheries management problems we face as we enter the twenty-first century will have less to do with extractive conservation and more to do with protection of regional and global environments. I present two contemporary fisheries management case histories which tend to bear this out: (1) Pacific Northwest salmon, with particular reference to the Columbia River, and (2) the high-seas driftnet fisheries of the North Pacific. Characterizing these types of problems in a few words, I would say that their effects are long-term and perhaps irreversible, and that they lead to conditions that we have yet to experience. Because of the type of input needed from the scientific community in order to forge rational solutions, modeling becomes ever more important in translating scientific experience into a form that will enlighten and move decisionmakers.     

CONSERVATION OF WILDLIFE. A BIO‐ECONOMIC MODEL OF A WILDLIFE RESERVE UNDER THE PRESSURE OF HABITAT DESTRUCTION AND HARVESTING OUTSIDE THE RESERVE

ABSTRACT. Biodiversity is today threatened by many factors of which destruction and reduction of habitats are considered most important for terrestrial species. One way to counteract these threats is to establish reserves with restrictions on land use and exploitation. However, very few reserves can be considered islands, wildlife species roam over large expanses, often via some density dependent dispersal process. As a consequence, habitat destruction, and exploitation, taking place outside will influence the species abundance inside the conservation area. The paper presents a theoretical model for analyzing this type of management problem. The model presented allows for both the common symmetric dispersal as well as what is called asymmetric dispersal between reserve and outside area. The main finding is that habitat destruction outside may not necessarily have negative impact upon the species abundance in the reserve. As a consequence, economic forces working in the direction of reducing the surrounding habitat have unclear effects on the species abundance within the protected area. We also find that harvesting outside the reserve may have quite modest effect on the species abundance in the reserve. This underlines the attractiveness of reserves from a conservation viewpoint.     

STEADY STATE AND INTERTEMPORAL MANAGEMENT MODELS FOR MARINE FISHERIES

Abstract Steady state and dynamic management models are developed for analyzing the Malaysian marine fisheries. These models originate from the theoretical concepts of the natural resource economics namely the open access, limited entry and the intertemporal fishery models. Such management models are deemed necessary because of the need to sustain the depleting resource and degrading environment. Marine fisheries had been managed under open access for a long time before government intervention took effect sometime during the 1960s. Open access and government intervention during the earlier phase of economic development contributed to the immediate pressure on fisheries. Community development programs geared to alleviate poverty among the fishermen apparently contradicted the effort of sustaining fisheries. Even today this fundamental management objective of sustainable development of fishery resource is not fully adhered to. This study suggests that ability to sustain fishery requires government intervention that can direct resource use to steady state or intertemporal optimal levels.     

ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING: THE CASE OF THE BARENTS SEA FISHERIES

ABSTRACT. . Regional analyses of possible physical and biological effects of global warming in the Barents Sea area have been carried out recently. Based on such studies possible economic impacts of global warming on the Barents Sea fisheries have been quantified, assuming different types of management regimes. The EconSimp2000 model, consisting of the ecosystem model AggMult and the fleet model EconMult have been parameterized based on fleet and catch records from the Norwegian Barents Sea fisheries. The model has been used to study biological and economic impacts of different environmental scenarios representing possible consequences of global warming. The current environmental situation, including normal seasonal and other variations, has been used as a reference scenario. Several biological and economic indicators have been defined in order to evaluate the simulation results of different environmental scenarios and different types of management regimes. The findings support earlier studies where biological and economic impacts of changes in management regime is found to be more pronounced than impacts caused by effects of global warming.     

Optimal and feedback strategies for managing multicohort populations

A Beverton and Holt type linear cohort dynamics model is integrated and combined with a nonlinear stock-recruitment relationship to obtain a discrete-time multicohort harvesting model. Assuming that each age class is individually controllable, it is shown, subject to certain assumptions, that the optimal harvesting strategy is to drive the population to the maximum sustainable yield solution in one time step. In most fisheries, this controllability assumption is not met and harvesting is agewise nonselective. In this case, it may be preferable to implement a harvesting policy based on suboptimal constant effort or stock level feedback strategies, rather than implement a more complicated optimal policy. This question is addressed through numerical studies on the management of an anchovy fishery.Dedicated to G. LeitmannThe author would like to thank M. Mangel, W. Reed, P. Sullivan, and G. Swartzman for commenting on a draft of this paper.     

On the effects of migration and spatial heterogeneity on single and multiple species

We first investigate in a logistic model the effects of migration and spatial heterogeneity of the environment on the total population size at equilibrium of a single species. Our study shows that (i) the total population size is maximized at some intermediate migration rate, and hence is a non-monotone function of the migration rate; (ii) heterogeneity of the environment increases the population size. In the second part of this paper, these findings are applied to ecological invasions. For a two-species Lotka-Volterra competition model with migration, we show that (i) without migration, the invading species eliminates the resident species at every point of the habitat, whereas when migration is present, for certain ranges of migration rates the invader may be eliminated when it is rare; and (ii) without migration, the two species can coexist at every point of the habitat, whereas when migration is present, for some ranges of migration rates one of the species is extinguished for all initial conditions.     

A FULL ANNUAL CYCLE MODELING FRAMEWORK FOR AMERICAN BLACK DUCKS

American black ducks (Anas rubripes) are a harvested, international migratory waterfowl species in eastern North America. Despite an extended period of restrictive harvest regulations, the black duck population is still below the population goal identified in the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP). It has been hypothesized that density‐dependent factors restrict population growth in the black duck population and that habitat management (increases, improvements, etc.) may be a key component of growing black duck populations and reaching the prescribed NAWMP population goal. Using banding data from 1951 to 2011 and breeding population survey data from 1990 to 2014, we developed a full annual cycle population model for the American black duck. This model uses the seven management units as set by the Black Duck Joint Venture, allows movement into and out of each unit during each season, and models survival and fecundity for each region separately. We compare model population trajectories with observed population data and abundance estimates from the breeding season counts to show the accuracy of this full annual cycle model. With this model, we then show how to simulate the effects of habitat management on the continental black duck population.