Parameter estimation for partially observable systems subject to random failure

In this paper, we present a parameter estimation procedure for a condition‐based maintenance model under partial observations. Systems can be in a healthy or unhealthy operational state, or in a failure state. System deterioration is driven by a continuous time homogeneous Markov chain and the system state is unobservable, except the failure state. Vector information that is stochastically related to the system state is obtained through condition monitoring at equidistant sampling times. Two types of data histories are available — data histories that end with observable failure, and censored data histories that end when the system has been suspended from operation but has not failed. The state and observation processes are modeled in the hidden Markov framework and the model parameters are estimated using the expectation–maximization algorithm. We show that both the pseudolikelihood function and the parameter updates in each iteration of the expectation–maximization algorithm have explicit formulas. A numerical example is developed using real multivariate spectrometric oil data coming from the failing transmission units of 240‐ton heavy hauler trucks used in the Athabasca oil sands of Alberta, Canada. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ESTIMATION OF THE MIXED AR AND HIDDEN PERIODIC MODEL

ThisresearchissupportedbytheNationalNaturalScienceFoundationofChina.1.IntroductionGeneralizedhiddenperiodicmodelhasthefollowingformwhereacisthesetofallpositiveintegers,('~{((t);tEac}isastationarysequencewithzeromeanandcontinuousspectraldensity,i=n,qisanonnegativeinteger,'f=0,X=(Al,Az,',A,)isarealvectorwith--T相似文献   

Filtering and change point estimation for hidden Markov-modulated Poisson processes

A continuous-time Markov chain which is partially observed in Poisson noise is considered, where a structural change in the dynamics of the hidden process occurs at a random change point. Filtering and change point estimation of the model is discussed. Closed-form recursive estimates of the conditional distribution of the hidden process and the random change point are obtained, given the Poisson process observations     

二阶离散隐马尔科夫模型的严格定义及等价性质

隐马氏模型作为一种具有双重随机过程的统计模型,具有可靠的概率统计理论基础和强有力的数学结构,已被广泛应用于语音识别、生物序列分析、金融数据分析等领域.由于传统的一阶隐马氏模型无法表示更远状态距离间的依赖关系,就可能会忽略很多有用的统计特征,故有人提出二阶隐马氏模型的概念,但此概念并不严格.本文给出二阶离散隐马尔科夫模型的严格定义,并研究了二阶离散隐马尔科夫模型的两个等价性质.     

基于EM算法隐Markov模型参数估计

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带缺失数据的偏正态众数回归模型的参数估计

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独立约束条件下线性模型的参数估计

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Almost periodic random sequences in probability

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Computational issues in parameter estimation for stationary hidden Markov models

The parameters of a hidden Markov model (HMM) can be estimated by numerical maximization of the log-likelihood function or, more popularly, using the expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm. In its standard implementation the latter is unsuitable for fitting stationary hidden Markov models (HMMs). We show how it can be modified to achieve this. We propose a hybrid algorithm that is designed to combine the advantageous features of the two algorithms and compare the performance of the three algorithms using simulated data from a designed experiment, and a real data set. The properties investigated are speed of convergence, stability, dependence on initial values, different parameterizations. We also describe the results of an experiment to assess the true coverage probability of bootstrap-based confidence intervals for the parameters.     

Onsager-Machlup functionals and maximum a posteriori estimation for a class of non-gaussian random fields

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Point estimation for multi-spectral distributed random matrices

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基于动态规划的高阶隐马氏模型推广的Viterbi算法

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A periodic testing model for a preparedness system with a defective state

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Parameter estimation in linear static systems based on weighted least-absolute value estimation

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Random periodic solutions of random dynamical systems

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Parameter estimation in linear filtering

Suppose on a probability space (Ω, F, P), a partially observable random process (x_t, y_t), t ≥ 0; is given where only the second component (y_t) is observed. Furthermore assume that (x_t, y_t) satisfy the following system of stochastic differential equations driven by independent Wiener processes (W₁(t)) and (W₂(t)): dx_t=−βx_tdt+dW₁(t), x₀=0, dy_t=αx_tdt+dW₂(t), y₀=0; α, β∞(a,b), a>0. We prove the local asymptotic normality of the model and obtain a large deviation inequality for the maximum likelihood estimator (m.l.e.) of the parameter θ = (α, β). This also implies the strong consistency, efficiency, asymptotic normality and the convergence of moments for the m.l.e. The method of proof can be easily extended to obtain similar results when vector valued instead of one-dimensional processes are considered and θ is a k-dimensional vector.     

Non parametric estimation for random walks in random environment

We investigate the problem of estimating the cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.) $F$ of a distribution $\nu$ from the observation of one trajectory of the random walk in i.i.d. random environment with distribution $\nu$ on $\mathbb{Z}$. We first estimate the moments of $\nu$, then combine these moment estimators to obtain a collection of estimators ${\left({\stackrel{?}{F}}_n^M\right)}_{M\ge 1}$ of $F$, our final estimator is chosen among this collection by Goldenshluger–Lepski’s method. This estimator is easily computable. We derive convergence rates for this estimator depending on the Hölder regularity of $F$ and on the divergence rate of the walk. Our rate is minimal when the chain realizes a trade-off between a fast exploration of the sites, allowing to get more information and a larger number of visits of each site, allowing a better recovery of the environment itself.     

具有常数输入的非自治SIR流行病模型周期解的存在性

利用MAWHIN重合度理论中的延拓定理研究了一类具有常数输入的非自治SIR流行病模型的非平凡周期解的存在性.并用MatLab对其进行了数值模拟,作出了模型的相图和解曲线图形.