具有结构内阻尼磁性刚体航天器姿态动力学稳定性分析

在地球引力场和磁场中,在考虑了航天器结构内阻尼及气体阻力的影响条件下,研究磁性刚体航天器在绕地球圆轨道运行时可能出现的混沌问题.根据动量矩定理建立动力学模型,应用Melnikov方法证明了动力系统在一定条件下会发生混沌行为,并且给出了解析判据.最后利用数值仿真分析了系统的动力学行为,理论结果与数值仿真结果相一致.     

矿区生产经营系统动力学模型及仿真

章建立了矿区生态经营系统动力学模型,阐述了所研究和实验的各种策略,及在此基础上提出的多个方案,以供矿区领导根据实际条件做出较科学的规划。     

Agent‐based simulation of an N‐person game with parabolic payoff functions

We report computer simulation experiments based on our agent‐based simulation tool to model a new N‐person game based on John Conway's Game of Life. The individual agents may choose between two behavior options: cooperation or defection. The payoff (reward/penalty) functions are given as two parabolas: one for each option. After a certain number of iterations, the behavior of the agents stabilizes to either a constant value or oscillates around such a value. The simulation's goal is to investigate the effects of intermediate behavior on a society of agents. We have performed a systematic investigation of this game for all six possible cases of the mutual positions of parabolic payoff functions crossing each other at two points: x = 0.3 and 0.7 where x is the ratio of the cooperation choice to the total number of agents in the agent's neighborhood. The global ratios X(t) of the total number of cooperators in the entire array of agents as functions of time (iterations) and the solutions of the game X_final as functions of X₀ were observed for each case for Pavlovian, greedy, and conformist agents. The solutions have predictable tendencies only when the neighborhood is the entire array of greedy or conformist agents. In all other cases unexpected properties emerge. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity, 2010     

基于教育部评价指标的高校发展仿真模型建立与应用研究

高校管理是一项涉及多层面、多要素变量的复杂系统,教育部建立高校评价指标体系对各高校现发展水平进行评价,促进国家教育发展.如何建立科学的评价指标体系?如何提高评价效应已有很多研究.但,未来发展仿真研究很少,因此,进行依据评价指标建立仿真方程、建立可靠性高的仿真模型研究很有意义.本文运用逐树设撤关联数结构行为检验建模法,基于教育部高校评价指标体系建立6个流位流率对构成的流位流率系;分别应用流率历史枝、主撑枝、条件枝法构建6棵流率入树基本结构,基于历史数据建立流率历史枝变量仿真方程;基于教育部高校评价指标的内涵等式建立刻画未来发展的主撑枝变量的仿真方程,基于表函数、延迟函数等建立条件枝变量仿真方程;通过设撤关联数分别进行T1(t)、T1(t)T2(t)、…、T1(t)T2(t)T3(t)…T6(t)各入树组合的结构行为检验,提高模型的可靠性,构建了高校管理系统的系统动力学(SD)评价仿真模型.通过高校最重要人力资源教师发展规划实施调控函数的不同调控参数下分别进行全系统仿真,分别揭示十二五、十三五期间各年满足教育部评价指标的教师数、在校生数、校建面积、教学设备、专业、收支差的数据复杂定量变化结果.为典型高校未来发展提供了具普遍意义的决策依据,为基于评价指标建立仿真方程,为提高仿真模型可靠性提供了新方法.     

Evaluating an hepatic enzyme induction mechanism through coarse‐ and fine‐grained measurements of an in silico liver

Results from simulation experiments falsified the hypothesis that a uniform distribution of simulated drug passing through an in silico liver (ISL) will produce a uniform extent of enzyme induction (EI). Wet‐lab EI experiments, as formulated, are infeasible. The simulated EI is intended to have a hepatic counterpart. The ISL is synthetic, physiologically based, fine‐grained, and multi‐agent. It has been validated against in situ drug disposition data. We discuss methodological considerations regarding the phenomenal manifold, multi‐level observation, and manipulation of synthetic models and their referents. Interestingly, a lower probability of metabolism caused higher EI and, counter‐intuitively, more extraction. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity, 2009     

网络结构、采纳者偏好与创新扩散:基于采纳者决策过程的创新扩散系统动力学模型仿真分析

在对采纳者决策过程分析的基础上,将网络结构和采纳者偏好作为核心参数,构建基于采纳者决策过程的创新扩散系统动力学模型。对模型进行仿真发现,在采纳者趋同化偏好条件下,网络平均度、网络重连概率与采纳者偏好强度的变动趋势与创新扩散效率的变动趋势相同,而在采纳者差异化偏好条件下则与创新扩散效率变动趋势相反。网络平均路径长度对创新扩散的影响方向与采纳者偏好特征无关,提高网络平均路径长度会始终降低创新扩散的效率。采纳者的趋同化偏好能够放大创新扩散对网络结构变量与采纳者偏好强度变量的敏感程度,采纳者差异化偏好则会缩小创新扩散对网络结构变量与采纳者偏好强度变量的敏感程度。研究结果对于制定创新推广策略具有一定的指导意义。     

一类具有双时滞的四种群的随机捕食-食饵模型的解及渐近行为

本文讨论了一类特殊的带有双时滞的四种群的随机捕食-食饵模型.我们首先证明了该随机捕食-食饵模型对正的初始条件存在着唯一的全局正解.然后,通过构造适当的Lyapunov函数并结合伊藤公式的应用,从解在平衡点附近的渐近行为这一方面对随机模型进行了讨论.最后,利用常微分方程数值模拟来验证本文定理中的主要结论.     

Threshold Dynamics of an Epidemic Model with Latency and Vaccination in a Heterogeneous Habitat

In this paper, we derive and analyze a nonlocal and time-delayed reaction-diffusion epidemic model with vaccination strategy in a heterogeneous habitat. First, we study the well-posedness of the solutions and prove the ex- istence of a global attractor for the model by applying some existing abstract results in dynamical systems theory. Then we show the global threshold dynamics which predicts whether the disease will die out or persist in terms of the basic reproduction number R 0 defined by the spectral radius of the next generation operator. Finally, we present the influences of heterogeneous spatial infections, diffusion coefficients and vaccination rate on the spread of the disease by numerical simulations.     

逐树组合仿真检验建模分析——以河北津龙公司规划效应分析为例

中国以创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享发展为理念,全面制定十三五发展规划,因此采用科学新方法对规划效应进行分析,是当前重要的研究内容.采用新建的逐树设撤关联数组合仿真检验建模法,对河北省津龙公司十二五、十三五发展规划效应进行定量仿真分析.建立了产、供、销、生物质资源转化、生物质能源开发、种养结合特色农产品生产9棵流率基本入树,建立了81个仿真方程,逐树设撤关联数组合仿真检验9棵入树可靠性后,建立系统动力学反馈仿真流图模型,进行规划发展参数调控效应仿真分析,基于仿真结果提出效应高的规划对策.     

一类总人口变化的传染病模型的极限环及混沌

研究了一类具被动免疫的流行病模型,考虑到了各仓室人口的增长,结合中心流形理论和参数扰动得到了系统极限环和混沌的存在性,并作了数值模拟和仿真.     

Using an Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma with Exit Option to Study Alliance Behavior: Results of a Tournament and Simulation

Nearly half of all strategic alliances fail (Park and Russo, 1996; Dyer et al., 2001), often because of opportunistic behavior by one party or the other. We use a tournament and simulation to study strategies in an iterated prisoner's dilemma game with exit option to shed light on how a firm should react to an opportunistic partner. Our results indicate that a firm should give an alliance partner a second chance following an opportunistic act but that subsequent behavior should be contingent on the value of the next best opportunity outside the alliance. Firms should be more forgiving if the potential benefits from the alliance exceed other opportunities. The strategies were also found to be robust across a wide range of game lengths. The implications of these results for alliance strategies are discussed. Steven E. Phelan received his PhD in economics from La Trobe University (Australia) in 1998. Following five years at the University of Texas at Dallas, he joined the faculty of the University of Nevada Las Vegas in 2003. Dr. Phelan's research interests include competitive dynamics, organizational efficiency, acquisition and alliance performance, and entrepreneurial competence. His methods of choice to study these phenomena include agent-based modelling, experimental game theory, and event studies. Prior to joining academia, Dr. Phelan held executive positions in the telecommunications and airline industries and was a principal partner in Bridges Management Group, a consultancy specializing in strategic investment decisions. Richard J. Arend is a graduate of the University of British Columbia's doctoral program in Policy Analysis and Strategy. He is on the Management faculty of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, arriving most recently from the Management faculty of New York University's Stern School of Business. Dr. Arend's interests lie in the analysis of unusual modes of firm value creation and destruction, where he has published in several top journals. He is a professional engineer with work and consulting experience in aerospace and computing. Darryl A. Seale joined the faculty of UNLV in 1999, following three years at Kent State University and the University of Alabama in Huntsville. Prior to Alabama, he completed his Ph.D. and M.S. degrees in Business Administration at the University of Arizona, his M.B.A. from Penn State University, and spent over ten years in management and market planning positions in the health care industry. Professor Seale's research interests include strategic decision making, bargaining and negotiation, and behavioral game theory. His research has been funded by the National Science Foundation and has been published in top-tier journals including Management Science, OBHDP, Games and Economic Behavior, and Strategic Management Journal. His teaching interests include business policy/strategy, managerial decision making, and bargaining and negotiation.     

具有N策略和负顾客的反馈抢占型M/G/1重试可修排队模型解的渐近行为

研究具有N策略和负顾客的反馈抢占型M/G/1重试可修排队模型的时间依赖解的渐近行为.当初步服务的失效率函数η(x),主要服务的失效率函数μ(x)和修理时间的失效率函数ψ(x)满足0η≤η(x)≤η∞,0μ≤μ(x)≤μ∞,0ψ≤ψ(x)≤ψ∞并且η(x)是Lipschitz连续函数时,证明模型的时间依赖解指数稳定.