Asymptotic normality of the likelihood moment estimators for a stationary linear process with heavy-tailed innovations

The authors recently proved in Martig and Hüsler (2016) that the likelihood moment estimators are consistent estimators for the parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution for the case where the underlying data arises from a (stationary) linear process with heavy-tailed innovations. In this paper we derive the bivariate asymptotic normality under some additional assumptions and give an explicit example on how to check these conditions by using asymptotic expansions. Some finite sample comparisons are presented to investigate the bias and variance behavior for some of the estimators.     

On the consistency of conditional maximum likelihood estimators

Let {P _, : , H} be a family of probability measures admitting a sufficient statistic for the nuisance parameter . The paper presents conditions for consistency of (asymptotic) conditional maximum likelihood estimators for . An application to the Rasch-model (a stochastic model for psychological tests) yields a condition on the sequence of nuisance parameters which is sufficient for strong consistency of conditional maximum likelihood estimators, and necessary for the existence of any weakly consistent estimator-sequence.     

Strong consistency of maximum likelihood estimators for a discrete-time random field HJM-type interest rate model

We consider a discrete time Heath–Jarrow–Morton-type forward interest rate model, where the interest rate curves are driven by a geometric spatial autoregression field. Strong consistency of maximum likelihood estimators is proved for stable and unstable no-arbitrage models containing a simple stochastic discounting factor. This research was supported by the Hungarian Scientific Research Fund under Grant No. OTKA–T048544/2005.     

Weak consistency of least-squares estimators in linear models

Let Y_n, n≥1, be a sequence of integrable random variables with EY_n = x_n1β₁ + x_n2β₂ + … + x_npβ_p, where the x_ij's are known and β^T = (β₁, β₂,…, β_p) unknown. Let b_n be the least-squares estimator of β based on Y₁, Y₂,…, Y_n. Weak consistency of b_n, n≥1, has been considered in the literature under the assumption that each Y_n is square integrable. In this paper, we study weak consistency of b_n, n≥1, and associated rates of convergence under the minimal assumption that each Y_n is integrable.     

Quasi-maximum likelihood estimators in generalized linear models with autoregressive processes

The paper studies a generalized linear model(GLM)y_t = h(x_t~T β) + ε_t,t = l,2,...,n,where ε_1 = η_1,ε_1 =ρε_t +η_t,t = 2,3,...;n,h is a continuous differentiable function,η_t's are independent and identically distributed random errors with zero mean and finite variance σ~2.Firstly,the quasi-maximum likelihood(QML) estimators of β,p and σ~2 are given.Secondly,under mild conditions,the asymptotic properties(including the existence,weak consistency and asymptotic distribution) of the QML estimators are investigated.Lastly,the validity of method is illuminated by a simulation example.     

Empirical likelihood for a varying coefficient partially linear model with diverging number of parameters

The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, for the estimation or inference about the parameters of interest in semiparametric models, the commonly used plug-in estimation for infinite-dimensional nuisance parameter creates non-negligible bias, and the least favorable curve or under-smoothing is popularly employed for bias reduction in the literature. To avoid such strong structure assumptions on the models and inconvenience of estimation implementation, for the diverging number of parameters in a varying coefficient partially linear model, we adopt a bias-corrected empirical likelihood (BCEL) in this paper. This method results in the distribution of the empirical likelihood ratio to be asymptotically tractable. It can then be directly applied to construct confidence region for the parameters of interest. Second, different from all existing methods that impose strong conditions to ensure consistency of estimation when diverging the number of the parameters goes to infinity as the sample size goes to infinity, we provide techniques to show that, other than the usual regularity conditions, the consistency holds under moment conditions alone on the covariates and error with a diverging rate being even faster than those in the literature. A simulation study is carried out to assess the performance of the proposed method and to compare it with the profile least squares method. A real dataset is analyzed for illustration.     

On linear processes with dependent innovations

We consider asymptotic behavior of partial sums and sample covariances for linear processes whose innovations are dependent. Central limit theorems and invariance principles are established under fairly mild conditions. Our results go beyond earlier ones by allowing a quite wide class of innovations which includes many important nonlinear time series models. Applications to linear processes with GARCH innovations and other nonlinear time series models are discussed.     

Empirical likelihood based inference for semiparametric varying coefficient partially linear models with error-prone linear covariates

This paper considers statistical inference for semiparametric varying coefficient partially linear models with error-prone linear covariates. An empirical likelihood based statistic for parametric component is developed to construct confidence regions. The resulting statistic is shown to be asymptotically chi-square distributed. By the empirical likelihood ratio function, the maximum empirical likelihood estimator of the parameter is defined and the asymptotic normality is shown. A simulation experiment is conducted to compare the empirical likelihood, normal based and the naive empirical likelihood methods in terms of coverage accuracies of confidence regions.     

部分线性变系数模型Backfitting估计的渐近性质

作为部分线性模型与变系数模型的推广,部分线性变系数模型是一类应用广泛的数据分析模型.利用Backfitting方法拟合这类特殊的可加模型,可得到模型中常值系数估计量的精确解析表达式,该估计量被证明是n~(1/2)相合的.最后通过数值模拟考察了所提估计方法的有效性.     

On some problems of weak consistency of quasi-maximum likelihood estimates in generalized linear models

In this paper,we explore some weakly consistent properties of quasi-maximum likelihood estimates(QMLE) concerning the quasi-likelihood equation in=1 Xi(yi-μ(Xiβ)) = 0 for univariate generalized linear model E(y |X) = μ(X'β).Given uncorrelated residuals {ei = Yi-μ(Xiβ0),1 i n} and other conditions,we prove that βn-β0 = Op(λn-1/2) holds,where βn is a root of the above equation,β0 is the true value of parameter β and λn denotes the smallest eigenvalue of the matrix Sn = ni=1 XiXi.We also show that the convergence rate above is sharp,provided independent non-asymptotically degenerate residual sequence and other conditions.Moreover,paralleling to the elegant result of Drygas(1976) for classical linear regression models,we point out that the necessary condition guaranteeing the weak consistency of QMLE is Sn-1→ 0,as the sample size n →∞.     

On an estimator in T3-class of linear estimators in sampling with varying probabilities from a finite population

Summary Horvitz and Thompson [4] introduced three classes of linear estimators for estimation of population characteristics on the basis of a sample drawn with varying probabilities and without replacement. TheirT ₃-class of estimators does not admit a best unbiased estimator. In this paper, the variance and an unbiased estimate of variance for an estimator in T₃-class, which is proved to have several good properties by Godambe [2], [3], are derived for sampling with varying probabilities with or without replacement.     

On exponential rates of likelihood ratio estimators for location parameters

In this paper the exponential rates, bounds, and local exponential rates for likelihood ratio estimators are studied. Under certain regularity conditions, a family of likelihood ratio estimators is shown to be admissible in exponential rate. It is also shown that the maximum likelihood estimator is the limit of this family of estimators.     

On the first ruin moment for a modified risk process with immediate reflection

For a modified risk process with immediate reflection downward, we establish relations for an integral transformation of its characteristic function and the corresponding transformation of the limit distribution of the considered process under ergodicity conditions. The distribution is obtained for the first ruin moment of the introduced risk process. Translated from Ukrainskii Matematicheskii Zhurnal, Vol. 50, No. 10, pp. 1419–1425, October, 1998.     

On likelihood estimation for a discretely observed jump process

We consider the parameter estimation problem for a Markov jump process sampled at periodic epochs with a constant step. Unlike the diffusion case where a closed form of the likelihood function is usually unavailable, we provide here an explicit expression of the likelihood function of the sampled chain. Moreover under suitable ergodicity condition on the jump process, we establish the consistency and the asymptotic normality of the likelihood estimator as the observation period tends to infinity. To cite this article: D. Dehay, J.-f. Yao, C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, Ser. I 342 (2006).     

Complete classes of tests for regularly varying distributions

This paper establishes essentially complete class theorems and gives conditions for admissibility of tests for parametric families of distributions having some kinds of regular variation properties. A complete treatment of topologically contiguous one-dimensional bounded and unbounded hypotheses is given. Examples of applications to well known families of distributions are presented.     

On the consistency of linear and quadratic systems

A system of linear inhomogeneous inequalities is examined. An algorithm is presented for isolating all the consistent subsystems in this system that are maximal with respect to inclusion, and justification of this algorithm is given. A criterion for the consistency of a system of quadratic inhomogeneous equations and inequalities is proposed.     

The tail empirical process of regularly varying functions of geometrically ergodic Markov chains

We consider a stationary regularly varying time series which can be expressed as a function of a geometrically ergodic Markov chain. We obtain practical conditions for the weak convergence of the tail array sums and feasible estimators of cluster statistics. These conditions include the so-called geometric drift or Foster–Lyapunov condition and can be easily checked for most usual time series models with a Markovian structure. We illustrate these conditions on several models and statistical applications. A counterexample is given to show a different limiting behavior when the geometric drift condition is not fulfilled.