Prophet regions and sharp inequalities for pth absolute moments of martingales

Exact comparisons are made relating E|Y₀|^p, E|Y_n−1|^p, and E(max_j≤n−1 |Y_j|^p), valid for all martingales Y₀,…,Y_n−1, for each p ≥ 1. Specifically, for p > 1, the set of ordered triples {(x, y, z) : X = E|Y₀|^p, Y = E |Y_n−1|^p, and Z = E(max_j≤n−1 |Y_j|^p) for some martingale Y₀,…,Y_n−1} is precisely the set {(x, y, z) : 0≤x≤y≤z≤Ψ_n,p(x, y)}, where Ψ_n,p(x, y) = xψ_n,p(y/x) if x > 0, and = a_n−1,py if x = 0; here ψ_n,p is a specific recursively defined function. The result yields families of sharp inequalities, such as E(max_j≤n−1 |Y_j|^p) + ψ_n,p^*(a) E |Y₀|^p ≤ aE |Y_n−1|^p, valid for all martingales Y₀,…,Y_n−1, where ψ_n,p^* is the concave conjugate function of ψ_n,p. Both the finite sequence and infinite sequence cases are developed. Proofs utilize moment theory, induction, conjugate function theory, and functional equation analysis.     

Consistency of a recursive nearest neighbor regression function estimate

Let (X, Y) be an ^d × -valued random vector and let (X₁, Y₁),…,(X_N, Y_N) be a random sample drawn from its distribution. Divide the data sequence into disjoint blocks of length l₁, …, l_n, find the nearest neighbor to X in each block and call the corresponding couple (X_i^*, Y_i^*). It is shown that the estimate m_n(X) = Σ_{i = 1}ⁿ w_niY_i^*/Σ_{i = 1}ⁿ w_ni of m(X) = E{Y|X} satisfies E{|m_n(X) − m(X)|^p} 0 (p ≥ 1) whenever E{|Y|^p} < ∞, l_n ∞, and the triangular array of positive weights {w_ni} satisfies sup_{i ≤ n}w_ni/Σ_{i = 1}ⁿ w_ni 0. No other restrictions are put on the distribution of (X, Y). Also, some distribution-free results for the strong convergence of E{|m_n(X) − m(X)|^p|X₁, Y₁,…, X_N, Y_N} to zero are included. Finally, an application to the discrimination problem is considered, and a discrimination rule is exhibited and shown to be strongly Bayes risk consistent for all distributions.     

On the approximate behavior of the posterior distribution for an extreme multivariate observation

The behavior of the posterior for a large observation is considered. Two basic situations are discussed; location vectors and natural parameters.Let X = (X₁, X₂, …, X_n) be an observation from a multivariate exponential distribution with that natural parameter Θ = (Θ₁, Θ₂, …, Θ_n). Let θ_x^* be the posterior mode. Sufficient conditions are presented for the distribution of Θ − θ_x^* given X = x to converge to a multivariate normal with mean vector 0 as |x| tends to infinity. These same conditions imply that E(Θ | X = x) − θ_x^* converges to the zero vector as |x| tends to infinity.The posterior for an observation X = (X₁, X₂, …, X_n is considered for a location vector Θ = (Θ₁, Θ₂, …, Θ_n) as x gets large along a path, γ, in Rⁿ. Sufficient conditions are given for the distribution of γ(t) − Θ given X = γ(t) to converge in law as t → ∞. Slightly stronger conditions ensure that γ(t) − E(Θ | X = γ(t)) converges to the mean of the limiting distribution.These basic results about the posterior mean are extended to cover other estimators. Loss functions which are convex functions of absolute error are considered. Let δ be a Bayes estimator for a loss function of this type. Generally, if the distribution of Θ − E(Θ | X = γ(t)) given X = γ(t) converges in law to a symmetric distribution as t → ∞, it is shown that δ(γ(t)) − E(Θ | X = γ(t)) → 0 as t → ∞.     

On reducibility of n-ary quasigroups

An n-ary operation Q:Σⁿ→Σ is called an n-ary quasigroup of order |Σ| if in the relation x₀=Q(x₁,…,x_n) knowledge of any n elements of x₀,…,x_n uniquely specifies the remaining one. Q is permutably reducible if Q(x₁,…,x_n)=P(R(x_σ(1),…,x_σ(k)),x_σ(k+1),…,x_σ(n)) where P and R are (n-k+1)-ary and k-ary quasigroups, σ is a permutation, and 1<k<n. An m-ary quasigroup S is called a retract of Q if it can be obtained from Q or one of its inverses by fixing n-m>0 arguments. We prove that if the maximum arity of a permutably irreducible retract of an n-ary quasigroup Q belongs to {3,…,n-3}, then Q is permutably reducible.     

L1-optimal estimates for a regression type function in R

Let X₁, X₂, …, X_n be random vectors that take values in a compact set in R^d, d ≥ 1. Let Y₁, Y₂, …, Y_n be random variables (“the responses”) which conditionally on X₁ = x₁, …, X_n = x_n are independent with densities f(y | x_i, θ(x_i)), i = 1, …, n. Assuming that θ lives in a sup-norm compact space Θ_q,d of real valued functions, an optimal L₁-consistent estimator of θ is constructed via empirical measures. The rate of convergence of the estimator to the true parameter θ depends on Kolmogorov's entropy of Θ_q,d.     

A Kernel Estimator of a Conditional Quantile

Let (X₁, Y₁), (X₂, Y₂), …, be two-dimensional random vectors which are independent and distributed as (X, Y). For 0<p<1, letξ(px) be the conditionalpth quantile ofYgivenX=x; that is,ξ(px)=inf{y : P(YyX=x)p}. We consider the problem of estimatingξ(px) from the data (X₁, Y₁), (X₂, Y₂), …, (X_n, Y_n). In this paper, a new kernel estimator ofξ(px) is proposed. The asymptotic normality and a law of the iterated logarithm are obtained.     

On the convergence rate of maximal deviation distribution for kernel regression estimates

Let (X, Y), X R^p, Y R¹ have the regression function r(x) = E(Y¦X = x). We consider the kernel nonparametric estimate r_n(x) of r(x) and obtain a sequence of distribution functions approximating the distribution of the maximal deviation with power rate. It is shown that the distribution of the maximal deviation tends to double exponent (which is a conventional form of such theorems) with logarithmic rate and this rate cannot be improved.     

On the fluctuations of independent copies of moving maxima

Let {X_n, n1} be a sequence of independent random variables (r.v.'s) with a common distribution function (d.f.) F. Define the moving maxima Y_k(n)=max(X_n−k(n)+1,X_n−k(n)+2,…,X_n), where {k(n), n1} is a sequence of positive integers. Let Y_k(n)¹ and Y_k(n)² be two independent copies of Y_k(n). Under certain conditions on F and k(n), the set of almost sure limit points of the vector consisting of properly normalised Y_k(n)¹ and Y_k(n)² is obtained.     

Estimates of Freud-Christoffel functions for some weights with the whole real line as support

Upper and lower bounds for generalized Christoffel functions, called Freud-Christoffel functions, are obtained. These have the form λ_n,p(W,j,x) = infPW_Lp(R)/|P^(j)(X)| where the infimum is taken over all polynomials P(x) of degree at most n − 1. The upper and lower bounds for λ_n,p(W,j,x) are obtained for all 0 < p ∞ and J = 0, 1, 2, 3,… for weights W(x) = exp(−Q(x)), where, among other things, Q(x) is bounded in [− A, A], and Q″ is continuous in β(−A, A) for some A > 0. For p = ∞, the lower bounds give a simple proof of local and global Markov-Bernstein inequalities. For p = 2, the results remove some restrictions on Q in Freud's work. The weights considered include W(x) = exp(− ¦x¦^α/2), α > 0, and W(x) = exp(− exp(¦x¦)), > 0.     

Second-order linearity of the general signed-rank statistic

Let X₁,…, X_n be i.i.d. random variables symmetric about zero. Let R_i(t) be the rank of |X_i − tn^−1/2| among |X₁ − tn^−1/2|,…, |X_n − tn^−1/2| and T_n(t) = Σ_{i = 1}ⁿφ((n + 1)⁻¹R_i(t))sign(X_i − tn^−1/2). We show that there exists a sequence of random variables V_n such that sup_{0 ≤ t ≤ 1} |T_n(t) − T_n(0) − tV_n| → 0 in probability, as n → ∞. V_n is asymptotically normal.     

An identity on the maximum of a set of random variables

It is shown that if X₁, X₂, …, X_n are symmetric random variables and max(X₁, …, X_n)⁺ = max(0, X₁, …, X_n), then E[max(X₁,…,X_n)⁺]=[max(X₁,X₁,+X₂,+X₁,+X₃,…X₁,+X_n)⁺], and in the case of independent identically distributed symmetric random variables, E[max(X₁, X₂)⁺] = E[(X₁)⁺] + (1/2)E[(X₁ + X₂)⁺], so that for independent standard normal random variables, E[max(X₁, X₂)⁺] = (1/√2π)[1 + (1/√2)].     

Global nonparametric estimation of conditional quantile functions and their derivatives

Let (X, Y) be a random vector such that X is d-dimensional, Y is real valued, and θ(X) is the conditional αth quantile of Y given X, where α is a fixed number such that 0 < α < 1. Assume that θ is a smooth function with order of smoothness p > 0, and set r = (p − m)/(2p + d), where m is a nonnegative integer smaller than p. Let T(θ) denote a derivative of θ of order m. It is proved that there exists estimate of T(θ), based on a set of i.i.d. observations (X₁, Y₁), …, (X_n, Y_n), that achieves the optimal nonparametric rate of convergence n^−r in L_q-norms (1 ≤ q < ∞) restricted to compacts under appropriate regularity conditions. Further, it has been shown that there exists estimate of T(θ) that achieves the optimal rate (n/log n)^−r in L_∞-norm restricted to compacts.     

Correlations of functions of normal variables

Let (X₁, X₂,…, X_k, Y₁, Y₂,…, Y_k) be multivariate normal and define a matrix C by C_ij = cov(X_i, Y_j). If (i) (X₁,…, X_k) = (Y₁,…, Y_k) and (ii) C is symmetric positive definite, then 0 < varf(X₁,…, X_k) < ∞ corr(f(X₁,…, X_k),f(Y₁,…, Y_k)) > 0. Condition (i) is necessary for the conclusion. The sufficiency of (i) and (ii) follows from an infinite-dimensional version, which can also be applied to a pair of jointly normal Brownian motions.     

Minimax estimation of the mean of spherically symmetric distributions under general quadratic loss

For X one observation on a p-dimensional (p ≥ 4) spherically symmetric (s.s.) distribution about θ, minimax estimators whose risks dominate the risk of X (the best invariant procedure) are found with respect to general quadratic loss, L(δ, θ) = (δ − θ)′ D(δ − θ) where D is a known p × p positive definite matrix. For C a p × p known positive definite matrix, conditions are given under which estimators of the form δ_a,r,C,D(X) = (I − (ar(|X|²)) D^−1/2CD^1/2 |X|⁻²)X are minimax with smaller risk than X. For the problem of estimating the mean when n observations X₁, X₂, …, X_n are taken on a p-dimensional s.s. distribution about θ, any spherically symmetric translation invariant estimator, δ(X₁, X₂, …, X_n), with have a s.s. distribution about θ. Among the estimators which have these properties are best invariant estimators, sample means and maximum likelihood estimators. Moreover, under certain conditions, improved robust estimators can be found.     

Theorems of large deviations in the multivariate invariance principle

Let B be a real separable Banach space with norm |ß|_B, X, X₁, X₂, … be a sequence of centered independent identically distributed random variables taking values in B. Let s_n = s_n(t), 0 ≤ t ≤ 1 be the random broken line such that s_n(0) = 0, s_n(k/n) = n^−1/2 Σ_i=1^k X_i for n = 1, 2, … and k = 1, …, n. Denote |s_n|_B = sup_{0 ≤ t ≤ 1} |s_n(t)|_B and assume that w(t), 0 ≤ t ≤ 1 is the Wiener process such that covariances of w(1) and X are equal. We show that under appropriate conditions P(|s_n|_B > r) = P(|w|_B > r)(1 + o(1)) and give estimates of the remainder term. The results are new already in the case of B having finite dimension.     

A note on asymptotic expansions for Markov chains using operator theory

We consider asymptotic expansions for sums S_n on the form S_n = ƒ₀(X₀) + ƒ(X₁, X₀) + … + ƒ(X_n, X_n−1), where X_i is a Markov chain. Under different ergodicity conditions on the Markov chain and certain conditional moment conditions on ƒ(X_i, X_i−1), a simple representation of the characteristic function of S_n is obtained. The representation is in term of the maximal eigenvalue of the linear operator sending a function g(x) into the function x → E(g(X_i)exp[itƒ(X_i, x)]|X_i−1 = x).     

On confidence sequences for the mean vector of a multivariate normal distribution

Let X₁, X₂,… be idd random vectors with a multivariate normal distribution N(μ, Σ). A sequence of subsets {R_n(a₁, a₂,…, a_n), n ≥ m} of the space of μ is said to be a (1 − α)-level sequence of confidence sets for μ if P(μ R_n(X₁, X₂,…, X_n) for every n ≥ m) ≥ 1 − α. In this note we use the ideas of Robbins Ann. Math. Statist. 41 (1970) to construct confidence sequences for the mean vector μ when Σ is either known or unknown. The constructed sequence R_n(X₁, X₂, …, X_n) depends on Mahalanobis' or Hotelling's according as Σ is known or unknown. Confidence sequences for the vector-valued parameter in the general linear model are also given.     

Stochastic comparisons of order statistics from heterogeneous populations, with applications in reliability

The basic result of the paper states: Let F₁, …, F_n, F₁^′,…, F_n^′ have proportional hazard functions with λ₁ ,…, λ_n , λ₁^′ ,…, λ_n^′ as the constants of proportionality. Let X₍₁₎ ≤ … ≤ X_(n) (X₍₁₎^′ ≤ … ≤ X_(n)^′) be the order statistics in a sample of size n from the heterogeneous populations {F₁ ,…, F_n}({F₁^′ ,…, F_n^′}). Then (λ₁ ,…, λ_n) majorizes (λ₁^′ ,…, λ_n^′) implies that (X₍₁₎ ,…, X_(n)) is stochastically larger than (X₍₁₎^′ ,…, X_(n)^′). Earlier results stochastically comparing individual order statistics are shown to be special cases. Applications of the main result are made in the study of the robustness of standard estimates of the failure rate of the exponential distribution, when observations actually come from a set of heterogeneous exponential distributions. Further applications are made to the comparisons of linear combinations of Weibull random variables and of binomial random variables.     

On improved estimators of the generalized variance

Treated in this paper is the problem of estimating with squared error loss the generalized variance | Σ | from a Wishart random matrix S: p × p W_p(n, Σ) and an independent normal random matrix X: p × k N(ξ, Σ I_k) with ξ(p × k) unknown. Denote the columns of X by X₍₁₎ ,…, X_(k) and set ψ⁽⁰⁾(S, X) = {(n − p + 2)!/(n + 2)!} | S |, ψ⁽ⁱ⁾(X, X) = min[ψ⁽ⁱ⁻¹⁾(S, X), {(n − p + i + 2)!/(n + i + 2)!} | S + X₍₁₎ X′₍₁₎ + + X_(i) X′_(i) |] and Ψ⁽ⁱ⁾(S, X) = min[ψ⁽⁰⁾(S, X), {(n − p + i + 2)!/(n + i + 2)!}| S + X₍₁₎ X′₍₁₎ + + X_(i) X′_(i) |], i = 1,…,k. Our result is that the minimax, best affine equivariant estimator ψ⁽⁰⁾(S, X) is dominated by each of Ψ⁽ⁱ⁾(S, X), i = 1,…,k and for every i, ψ⁽ⁱ⁾(S, X) is better than ψ⁽ⁱ⁻¹⁾(S, X). In particular, ψ^(k)(S, X) = min[{(n − p + 2)!/(n + 2)!} | S |, {(n − p + 2)!/(n + 2)!} | S + X₍₁₎X′₍₁₎|,…,| {(n − p + k + 2)!/(n + k + 2)!} | S + X₍₁₎X′₍₁₎ + + X_(k)X′_(k)|] dominates all other ψ's. It is obtained by considering a multivariate extension of Stein's result (Ann. Inst. Statist. Math. 16, 155–160 (1964)) on the estimation of the normal variance.     

A uniform bound for the deviation of empirical distribution functions

If X₁, …, X_n are independent R^d-valued random vectors with common distribution function F, and if F_n is the empirical distribution function for X₁, …, X_n, then, among other things, it is shown that P{sup_x F_n(x) ε} 2e²(2n)^de^−2nε2 for all nε² ≥ d². The inequality remains valid if the X_i are not identically distributed and F(x) is replaced by Σ_iP{X_i ≤ x}/n.