A dynamic parameterization modeling for the age-period-cohort mortality

An extended version of Hatzopoulos and Haberman (2009) dynamic parametric model is proposed for analyzing mortality structures, incorporating the cohort effect. A one-factor parameterized exponential polynomial in age effects within the generalized linear models (GLM) framework is used. Sparse principal component analysis (SPCA) is then applied to time-dependent GLM parameter estimates and provides (marginal) estimates for a two-factor principal component (PC) approach structure. Modeling the two-factor residuals in the same way, in age-cohort effects, provides estimates for the (conditional) three-factor age-period-cohort model. The age-time and cohort related components are extrapolated using dynamic linear regression (DLR) models. An application is presented for England & Wales males (1841-2006).     

An analysis of the size of the minimum dominating sets in random recursive trees, using the Cockayne-Goodman-Hedetniemi algorithm

A random recursive tree on n vertices is either a single isolated vertex (for n=1) or is a vertex v_n connected to a vertex chosen uniformly at random from a random recursive tree on n−1 vertices. Such trees have been studied before [R. Smythe, H. Mahmoud, A survey of recursive trees, Theory of Probability and Mathematical Statistics 51 (1996) 1-29] as models of boolean circuits. More recently, Barabási and Albert [A. Barabási, R. Albert, Emergence of scaling in random networks, Science 286 (1999) 509-512] have used modifications of such models to model for the web and other “power-law” networks.A minimum (cardinality) dominating set in a tree can be found in linear time using the algorithm of Cockayne et al. [E. Cockayne, S. Goodman, S. Hedetniemi, A linear algorithm for the domination number of a tree, Information Processing Letters 4 (1975) 41-44]. We prove that there exists a constant d?0.3745… such that the size of a minimum dominating set in a random recursive tree on n vertices is dn+o(n) with probability approaching one as n tends to infinity. The result is obtained by analysing the algorithm of Cockayne, Goodman and Hedetniemi.     

A simple diagonals-parameter symmetry and quasi-symmetry model

Goodman (1979) proposed a class of diagonals-parameter symmetry models for square contingency tables with ordered categories, A simple version of that model is considered in which the log odds parameters have a linear pattern. The model is also a simple quasi-symmetry model. It fits well when there is an underlying bivariate normal distribution.     

Parameterized Scalar Profile Mixing Model for Turbulent Combustion Simulations

The composition fields in turbulent reacting flows are affected by turbulent transport (macromixing), molecular diffusion (micromixing), and chemical reactions. In the joint velocity-composition probability density function transport equation the highly non-linear macromixing and chemical reaction terms appear in closed form. This is a considerable advantage over moment closure methods. Micromixing on the other hand requires modeling and especially for turbulent combustion accurate mixing models are crucial. Our approach to model the mixing of scalars, e.g. species mass fractions or temperature, is based on considering one-dimensional parameterized scalar profiles (PSP). Here, an extension of the PSP mixing model to inhomogeneous flows is presented. (© 2006 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Integrating DEA-oriented performance assessment and target setting using interactive MOLP methods

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) and multiple objective linear programming (MOLP) are tools that can be used in management control and planning. Whilst these two types of model are similar in structure, DEA is directed to assessing past performances as part of management control function and MOLP to planning future performance targets. This paper is devoted to investigating equivalence models and interactive tradeoff analysis procedures in MOLP, such that DEA-oriented performance assessment and target setting can be integrated in a way that the decision makers’ preferences can be taken into account in an interactive fashion. Three equivalence models are investigated between the output-oriented dual DEA model and the minimax reference point formulations, namely the super-ideal point model, the ideal point model and the shortest distance model. These models can be used to support efficiency analysis in the same way as the conventional DEA model does and also support tradeoff analysis for setting target values by individuals or groups. A case study is conducted to illustrate how DEA-oriented efficiency analysis can be conducted using the MOLP methods and how such performance assessment can be integrated into an interactive procedure for setting realistic target values.     

对部分线性模型用惩罚最小二乘估计时最优光滑化的注记

部分线性模型也就是响应变量关于一个或者多个协变量是线性的, 但对于其他的协变量是非线性的关系\bd 对于部分线性模型中的参数和非参数部分的估计方法, 惩罚最小二乘估计是重要的估计方法之一\bd 对于这种估计方法, 广义交叉验证法提供了一种确定光滑参数的方法\bd 但是, 在部分线性模型中, 用广义交叉验证法确定光滑参数的最优性还没有被证明\bd 本文证明了利用惩罚最小二乘估计对于部分线性模型估计时, 用广义交叉验证法选择光滑参数的最优性\bd 通过模拟验证了本文中所提出的用广义交叉验证法选择光滑参数具有很好的效果, 同时, 本文在模拟部分比较了广义交叉验证和最小二乘交叉验证的优劣.     

甲型H1N1流感传染人数的灰色预测模型研究

就我国甲型H1N1流感传染人数的预测运用灰色系统理论建立了GM(1,1)模型和1阶残差修正模型GMε(1,1),并分别作了精度分析研究了GMε(1,1)的变化趋势,提出了临界值和有效域概念.用MATLAB确定了模型参数及模型预测值.     

A combined forecast—inventory control procedure for spare parts

This paper examines the performance of two different (s, Q) inventory models, namely a simple and an advanced model, for spare parts in a production plant of a confectionery producer in the Netherlands. The simple approach is more or less standard: the undershoot of the reorder level is not taken into account and the normal distribution is used as the distribution of demand during lead-time. The advanced model takes undershoots into account, differentiates between zero and nonzero demands during lead-time, and utilises the gamma distribution for the demand distribution. Both models are fed with parameters estimated by a procedure that forecasts demand sizes and time between demand occurrences separately (intermittent demand). The results show that the advanced approach yields a service level close to the desired one under many circumstances, while the simple approach is not consistent, in that it leads to much larger inventories in meeting the desired service level for all spare parts.     

Asymptotic distributions of two “synthetic data” estimators for censored single-index models

The censored single-index model provides a flexible way for modelling the association between a response and a set of predictor variables when the response variable is randomly censored and the link function is unknown. It presents a technique for “dimension reduction” in semiparametric censored regression models and generalizes the existing accelerated failure time models for survival analysis. This paper proposes two methods for estimation of single-index models with randomly censored samples. We first transform the censored data into synthetic data or pseudo-responses unbiasedly, then obtain estimates of the index coefficients by the rOPG or rMAVE procedures of Xia (2006) [1]. Finally, we estimate the unknown nonparametric link function using techniques for univariate censored nonparametric regression. The estimators for the index coefficients are shown to be root-n consistent and asymptotically normal. In addition, the estimator for the unknown regression function is a local linear kernel regression estimator and can be estimated with the same efficiency as the parameters are known. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to illustrate the proposed methodologies.     

Closed transversals and the genus of closed leaves in foliated 3-manifolds

The classical local theory of integrable 2-plane fields in 3-space leads to interesting qualitative questions about the global properties of solutions surface (i.e., leaves of a foliation) on 3-manifolds. It is now known that foliations admitting a closed leaf of suitably high genus abound on all closed or orientable 3-manifolds that are not rational homology spheres (S. Goodman, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.71 (1974), 4414–4415), and this leads to natural questions about the “positions” of such leaves relative to the rest of the foliation. One such question, suggested by Goodman's theorem on closed transversals (S. Goodman, ibid.), is considered here.     

基于垂直距离的直线拟合

在分析传统的直线拟合基础上,提出基于垂直距离的直线拟合问题.针对3种准则,给出了3个模型.对于使残差的平方和为最小准则,经过推导得到一个精确结果.     

Nonparametric variable selection and its application to additive models

Variable selection for multivariate nonparametric regression models usually involves parameterized approximation for nonparametric functions in the objective function. However, this parameterized approximation often increases the number of parameters significantly, leading to the “curse of dimensionality” and inaccurate estimation. In this paper, we propose a novel and easily implemented approach to do variable selection in nonparametric models without parameterized approximation, enabling selection consistency to be achieved. The proposed method is applied to do variable selection for additive models. A two-stage procedure with selection and adaptive estimation is proposed, and the properties of this method are investigated. This two-stage algorithm is adaptive to the smoothness of the underlying components, and the estimation consistency can reach a parametric rate if the underlying model is really parametric. Simulation studies are conducted to examine the performance of the proposed method. Furthermore, a real data example is analyzed for illustration.

     

The admissible parameter space for exponential smoothing models

We discuss the admissible parameter space for some state space models, including the models that underly exponential smoothing methods. We find that the usual parameter restrictions (requiring all smoothing parameters to lie between 0 and 1) do not always lead to stable models. We also find that all seasonal exponential smoothing methods are unstable as the underlying state space models are neither reachable nor observable. This instability does not affect the forecasts, but does corrupt the state estimates. The problem can be overcome with a simple normalizing procedure. Finally we show that the admissible parameter space of a seasonal exponential smoothing model is much larger than that for a basic structural model, leading to better forecasts from the exponential smoothing model when there is a rapidly changing seasonal pattern.     

Applications of sensitivity analysis for probit stochastic network equilibrium

Network equilibrium models are widely used by traffic practitioners to aid them in making decisions concerning the operation and management of traffic networks. The common practice is to test a prescribed range of hypothetical changes or policy measures through adjustments to the input data, namely the trip demands, the arc performance (travel time) functions, and policy variables such as tolls or signal timings. Relatively little use is made, however, of the full implicit relationship between model inputs and outputs inherent in these models. By exploiting the representation of such models as an equivalent optimisation problem, classical results on the sensitivity analysis of non-linear programs may be applied, to produce linear relationships between input data perturbations and model outputs. We specifically focus on recent results relating to the probit Stochastic User Equilibrium (PSUE) model, which has the advantage of greater behavioural realism and flexibility relative to the conventional Wardrop user equilibrium and logit SUE models. The paper goes on to explore four applications of these sensitivity expressions in gaining insight into the operation of road traffic networks. These applications are namely: identification of sensitive, ‘critical’ parameters; computation of approximate, re-equilibrated solutions following a change (post-optimisation); robustness analysis of model forecasts to input data errors, in the form of confidence interval estimation; and the solution of problems of the bi-level, optimal network design variety. Finally, numerical experiments applying these methods are reported.     

Frequency domain characteristics of linear operator to decompose a time series into the multi-components

Frequency domain properties of the operators to decompose a time series into the multi-components along the Akaike's Bayesian model (Akaike (1980, Bayesian Statistics, 143–165, University Press, Valencia, Spain)) are shown. In that analysis a normal disturbance-linear-stochastic regression prior model is applied to the time series. A prior distribution, characterized by a small number of hyperparameters, is specified for model parameters. The posterior distribution is a linear function (filter) of observations. Here we use frequency domain analysis or filter characteristics of several prior models parametrically as a function of the hyperparameters.     

Target setting in data envelopment analysis using MOLP

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) and multiple objective linear programming (MOLP) can be used as tools in management control and planning. The existing models have been established during the investigation of the relations between the output-oriented dual DEA model and the minimax reference point formulations, namely the super-ideal point model, the ideal point model and the shortest distance model. Through these models, the decision makers’ preferences are considered by interactive trade-off analysis procedures in multiple objective linear programming. These models only consider the output-oriented dual DEA model, which is a radial model that focuses more on output increase. In this paper, we improve those models to obtain models that address both inputs and outputs. Our main aim is to decrease total input consumption and increase total output production which results in solving one mathematical programming model instead of n models. Numerical illustration is provided to show some advantages of our method over the previous methods.     

A prefix array for parameterized strings

A parameterized string (p-string) is a generalization of the traditional string over two alphabets: a constant alphabet and a parameter alphabet. A parameterized match (p-match) exists between two p-strings if the constants match exactly and if there exists a bijection between the parameter symbols. Historically, p-strings have been leveraged for source code cloning, plagiarism detection, and biological sequence structural similarity. In this work, we identify the connection between the p-match and music, one of several applications to motivate our study of holes in p-strings, and prefix array-based data structures for p-strings. First, we introduce the parameterized prefix array (pPA) for p-strings and its succinct representation, the compact parameterized prefix array (cpPA). We show an interesting construction of the cpPA via the parameterized longest previous factor (pLPF), a more recently proposed array with connections to various pattern matching data structures and LZ factorization. Next, we introduce the parameterized string with holes (hp-string), needed to address a special form of indeterminate pattern matching with p-strings. Then, we show how to construct the compact prefix array for hp-strings. Finally, we discuss applications for our data structures.     

A comparison of the Lee-Carter model and AR-ARCH model for forecasting mortality rates

With the decline in the mortality level of populations, national social security systems and insurance companies of most developed countries are reconsidering their mortality tables taking into account the longevity risk. The Lee and Carter model is the first discrete-time stochastic model to consider the increased life expectancy trends in mortality rates and is still broadly used today. In this paper, we propose an alternative to the Lee-Carter model: an AR(1)-ARCH(1) model. More specifically, we compare the performance of these two models with respect to forecasting age-specific mortality in Italy. We fit the two models, with Gaussian and t-student innovations, for the matrix of Italian death rates from 1960 to 2003. We compare the forecast ability of the two approaches in out-of-sample analysis for the period 2004-2006 and find that the AR(1)-ARCH(1) model with t-student innovations provides the best fit among the models studied in this paper.