AN OPTIMIZATION APPROACH TO IDENTIFYING TIMBER SUPPLY FUNCTION COEFFICIENTS

This paper examines an optimization approach to identifying short-run timber supply function coefficients when the form of the supply function is known. By definition, a short-run timber supply function is a functional relationship between the optimal harvest level in each period (e.g., each year) and the actual forest-market state in the same period. The short-run timber supply function represents the optimal harvest decision policy, and therefore, the problem of optimal harvesting can be formulated as a problem of determining this function. When the form of the supply function is known, the problem becomes one of identifying the coefficients of the supply function. If the management objective is to maximize the expected present value of net revenues from timber harvesting over an infinite time horizon, and the timber price process is, in a sense, stationary, the supply function coefficients correspond to the optimal solution to an anticipative optimization problem. In this case, the supply function coefficients can be determined by maximizing the expected present value of the net revenues from timber harvesting, where periodic harvest levels are determined using the supply function. Numerical results show that the short-run supply functions determined using this approach gives good approximations of the true supply function.     

LONG-RUN TIMBER SUPPLY: PRICE ELASTICITY,INVENTORY ELASTICITY,AND THE USE OF CAPITAL IN TIMBER PRODUCTION

Timber production requires substantially more capital per unit output than does virtually any other economic enterprise. The quantity of capital deployed depends primarily on the rotation length and the output price for timber. In a long-run timber supply model this gives rise to a “backward bending” supply curve. This paper summarizes a long-run model of timber supply, and computes the associated price and inventory elasticities. The role of capital in timber production is explored through a continuous-time formulation of the usual Faustmann point-input/point-output model. The theoretical results are illustrated through an example based on loblolly pine yields for the U.S. South.     

MODELING THE EFFECT OF INSTITUTIONAL CONSTRAINTS ON SHORT-RUN TIMBER SUPPLY ON PUBLIC LAND: A CASE STUDY OF QUOTA HOLDERS IN ALBERTA

The short-run timber supply behavior of quota holders is investigated in the face of institutional constraints and fixed stumpage prices. A dynamic optimization technique is used to predict production and estimate shadow prices of processing capacity constraints and annual allowable cut restrictions. Models for large, medium, and small tenure holders are formulated reflecting the different cost structures of different sized firms. Results indicate that all categories of quota holders incur substantial costs due to institutional constraints, and that eliminating both types of constraints simultaneously reduces costs much more than the combined savings from eliminating each type of constraint individually.     

RANDOM ENTRY FORESTRY: TIMBER MANAGEMENT IN A TIME OF SPECIES CONSERVATION

In this paper we propose a timber management scheme which mimics the patchy stand structure of a fire climax forest and has the desirable characteristic of retaining stands of trees of very old ages. We go on to do a preliminary economic analysis and determine that if management is taking place under the restriction that a certain fraction of the forest must be of at least some given age then this approach may be far superior to standard single age rotation schemes.     

货币供给系统的稳定性判据

本文利用经济控制理论和货币供给理论推导出由公众、商业银行和中央银行构成的货币供给系统的稳定性判据，可以用来分析中央银行的准备金制度与商业银行的存、贷款规模之间的关系．     

OPTIMAL CONTROL OF MULTIPLE-USE PRODUCTS: THE CASE OF TIMBER,FORAGE AND WATER PRODUCTION

ABSTRACT. A thorough analysis of the optimal control of multiple-use forest management at the stand level reveals that the results of earlier studies, which seem to contradict each other, are in fact part of a common solution space. We provide an explanation for this result by showing that it is caused by the growth function and the interaction between the timber and forage production functions. We discuss the sensibility of the results using this new knowledge. Most optimal control models focusing on multiple-use forest management have applied production functions that are quadratic in the state variable. This makes explicit solutions easy because the first order derivative is linear. However, in reality, production is often better described by more complex nonlinear functions, but, unfortunately, such functions are difficult to handle in an optimal control framework. We illustrate how the convenience of the quadratic production function can be combined with better approximations to nonlinear production functions.     

ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF BIOTECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS: THE EFFECT OF CHANGING MANAGEMENT BEHAVIOR

Abstract The paper assesses the welfare effects of biotechnological progress, as exemplified by tree improvements, using a partial equilibrium model. Timber demand is assumed to be stochastic and the distributions of its coefficients known. The coefficients of a log‐linear supply function are determined by maximizing the expected present value of the total surplus of timber production, both in the presence and in the absence of genetically improved regeneration materials. The supply functions are then used to estimate the expected present values of the total surplus in different cases through simulation. These estimates enable us to assess the direct effect and the effect of changing harvest behavior on the expected present value of the total surplus. The main results of the study are (i) the presence of genetically improved regeneration materials has significant impacts on the aggregate timber supply function; (ii) the application of genetically improved regeneration materials leads to a significant increase in the expected present value of the total surplus; and (iii) a considerable proportion of the welfare gain results from the change in harvest behavior. A conclusion we draw from this study is that ignoring the influences of technological and policy changes on behavior can lead to significantly biased welfare estimates. We view the model as a potential approach to conducting counterfactual policy comparisons in economics without forward‐looking data.     

THE MODELING AND ESTIMATION OF THE SHORT-RUN SUPPLY OF ROUNDWOOD UNDER NONLINEAR INCOME TAXES

This paper deals with the theory and estimation of the short-run supply of roundwood under nonlinear (progressive) income taxation. The theoretical part of the paper uses the two-period consumption harvesting model to introduce nonlinear income taxes into the forest management problem and presents a simple method to determine the optimal supply of roundwood in this case. In the empirical part of the paper, the model is specified in a way suitable for econometric analysis. The estimation method is the maximum likelihood method, and the estimation results seem to support the theoretical model. Finally, some results from model simulation imply that income taxation may have a nonnegligible impact on the supply of roundwood.     

ON THE ECONOMICS OF BIOLOGICAL INVASION: AN APPLICATION TO RECREATIONAL FISHING

Abstract The paper demonstrates four general mechanisms that may affect economically valuable species when exposed to biological invasion. We distinguish between an ecological level effect and an ecological growth effect. In addition, we present an economic quantity effect working through demand. Finally, we suggest that there is an economic quality effect that reflects the possibility that invasions affect the harvesting agents directly through demand‐side forces. For example, this may occur because the state of the original species or the ecosystem is altered. We depart from the existing literature by revealing ecological and economic forces that explain why different agents may lack incentives to control invasions. The theoretical model is illustrated by the case where escaped farmed salmon (EFS) influence wild Atlantic salmon fisheries.     

一个供应链系统可靠性模型时间依赖解的渐近行为

本文研究一个供应链系统可靠性模型的时间依赖解.利用C0-半群理论研究该模型相应算子的谱的特征,获得了该系统模型时间依赖解的渐近行为,推广了文献[8]中的结果.     

MODELING AND THE MANAGEMENT OF MIGRATORY BIRDS

Mathematical modeling of migratory bird populations is reviewed in the context of migratory bird management. We focus on dynamic models of waterfowl, since most management-oriented migratory bird models concern waterfowl species. We describe the management context for these modeling efforts, with a focus on large-scale operational data collection programs and on processes by which waterfowl harvest is regulated and waterfowl habitats are protected and managed. Through their impacts on key population parameters such as recruitment and survival rate, these activities can influence population dynamics, thereby providing managers some measure of control over the status of populations. Recent applications of the modeling of waterfowl are described in terms of objectives, mathematical structures, and contributions to management. Finally, we discuss research needs and data limitations in migratory bird modeling, and offer suggestions to increase the value to managers of future modeling efforts.     

需求量与交货周期随机变化的供货水平法分析

本文运用随机变量的分布导出保证供货水平不小于ａ的再订货点．它比供货水平法更好．     

MODELING DYNAMICS OF FISHERY HARVEST REALLOCATIONS: AN ANALYSIS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA RED DRUM FISHERY

The interactive dynamics of red drum stock growth and two-sector harvest are modeled as a system of differential equations. The dynamic effects of commercial harvest restrictions on stock growth and recreational catch and effort are simulated. The simulation shows that a reallocation of the North Carolina red drum stock from the commercial sector to the recreational sector will not only increase benefits to the recreational sector, but will also be stock enhancing. Stock growth in the years immediately following the reallocation is quite rapid, with complete transition to the final steady-state taking between 23 and 46 years. Parameters important to the behavior of the system are identified through sensitivity analysis, and are used to establish critical areas for further research.     

MODELING THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF A SUBTROPICAL UNGULATE IN A VARIABLE ENVIRONMENT: RAIN,COLD AND PREDATORS

ABSTRACT. A structured population model was developed for a large ungulate, the kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros). From a ten-year study in South Africa's Kruger National Park, relationships were established between annual survival rates of particular age classes and resource availability indexed by the ratio between annual rainfall and population biomass density. The projected population dynamics resembled that from a simple logistic model, but with the convexity of density dependence and intrinsic growth rate dependent upon assumptions about how age-specific mortality changed at low density levels. Moreover, rather than being a preset constant, the effective carrying capacity K wasa dynamic variable dependent upon rainfall. The model closely replicated the observed dynamicsof the kudu population over the study period, but failed to predict the observed kudu density at the start of the study from prior rainfall alone. Episodic cold weather extremeswere identified ashaving an additional influence on kudu dynamics. The model was also unsuccessful in predicting the changesin kudu abundance that occurred in Kruger Park subsequent to the study. Here changes in predation perhaps due to predator switching were a possible influence. These additional factorsinfluencing population dynamicswould not have been recognized without first establishing the effects of changing resource availability in response to rainfall fluctu-ationsbetween years. The elaborated model incorporating the effects of resource supply as influenced by rainfall, density dependence, background predation pressure and episodic severe weather hasbroader reliability than simpler modelsfor conservation applications, while still having a firm empirical foundation.     

MODELING REGENERATION AND PEST CONTROL ALTERNATIVES FOR A FOREST SYSTEM IN THE PRESENCE OF FIRE RISK

This paper addresses a fire and pest protection forest management modeling problem by developing a flexible model which integrates the concepts of: 1) species diversity 2) infestation of susceptible species; 3) natural regeneration and planting; 4) conversion of susceptible to non-susceptible species by planting; 5) pest protection by spraying; 6) age-specific harvesting; 7) intertemporal harvest flow policies; and 8) catastrophic loss due to fire. A linear programming (LP) model economically evaluates alternative regimes for protection spraying of susceptible forest species against insect infestations and alternative harvesting strategies which include conversion of susceptible species to non-susceptible, by planting. These strategies are evaluated subject to catastrophic loss due to fire. An iterative simulation-LP approach tests how well the deterministic model holds in a simulated stochastic environment. This validation procedure involves solving the optimization problem deterministically using average values for the fire and infestation proportions and also at each time period updating the system state by simulating the state transition for the next time period using randomly generated updates and re-solving using the updated state as the new initial condition. An optimal wood supply trajectory in a simulated stochastic environment is therefore constructed. The results from the iterative stochastic solution provide a confidence measure for the deterministic solution.     

MODELING THE MOVEMENTS OF COWBIRDS: APPLICATION TOWARDS MANAGEMENT AT THE LANDSCAPE SCALE

ABSTRACT. Brood parasitism by brown‐headed cowbirds (Molothrus ater) reduces the reproductive success of two endangered bird species at Fort Hood, Texas. A successful management program has focused on trapping cowbirds at feeding locations, grassland areas almost always associated with the presence of cattle. To enhance the efficacy of this effort, we developed an individual‐based model that predicted visitation rates by cowbirds to all potential feeding locations at Fort Hood and the surrounding landscape. Utilizing GRASS‐GIS and SWARM, the model incorporated the spatial arrangement of habitats, daily movements of cattle, and daily movements of cowbirds from their breeding sites to feeding locations. We simulated four types of movements by cow‐birds as they searched for cattle: 1) random walk, 2) direct return to previous locations (i.e., memory), 3) return to previous locations with en route assessment (i.e., memory with limited perception of the current state of the system), and 4) omniscience. Straight‐line distances between breeding and feeding locations for cowbirds that used the memory‐with‐perception rule were similar to independent telemetry results, and total search distances for this movement type approached those of omniscience. Both movement distance measures were inversely related to perception distance. Maps of cowbird visits to feeding areas differed among movement rules but were not strongly affected by the density of breeding cow‐birds. Maps also identified locations where trapping efforts could reduce parasitism within specific areas known to support endangered species. While it seems plausible that cowbirds are able to remember foraging locations and to perceive their surroundings as they travel, additional studies are needed to document their cognitive abilities. By simulating movements of individual cowbirds across a dynamic landscape, model results may help to strengthen ongoing cowbird control efforts.     

THE DIFFUSION OF RESOURCE-QUALITY-AUGMENTING TECHNOLOGIES: OUTPUT SUPPLY AND INPUT DEMAND EFFECTS

This paper develops a model that shows that the adoption of a modern conservation technology is a gradual process in which dynamic patterns are determined by variation in resource quality among producers, improvements in equipment, and learning. The dynamics of technological changes are reflected in the cyclical patterns of production and resource use. A numerical example simulates adoption rates of modern irrigation technologies using California data and shows that rate of adoption is an S-shaped function of time and that water use and output are cyclical.     

MODELING THE DYNAMICS OF FISHERY STOCK RECOVERY: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCE DAMAGES

ABSTRACT. During the restoration planning phase of the natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) process, potential injuries to natural resources and services are evaluated in terms of the nature, degree and extent of injury so that the need for and scale of restoration actions can be ascertained. Injuries are quantified by comparing the condition of the injured natural resource relative to baseline (pre‐injury) conditions. The “Type A” procedures are used to quantify damages from smaller spills and rely on a standardized methodology and computer model to calculate injury and value of damages. In this model, fishery stock changes from injuries and resulting changes in user participation are not treated as dynamic. If true stock growth and re‐growth are indeed dynamic, then the Type A model is likely underestimating fishery losses. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the potential for such underestimation by comparing simulated stock and harvest losses under dynamic treatment and a static treatment that more closely represents the way stock and service losses are estimated under the current NRDA process.     

THE STRUCTURE OF THE TANGENT CONE: AN INTERESTING BIJECTION#

ABSTRACT

Let X = Spec(R) be a reduced equidimensional algebraic variety over an algebraically closed field k. Let Y = Spec(R/𝔮) be a codimension one ordinary multiple subvariety, where 𝔮 is a prime ideal of height 1 of R. If U is a nonempty open subset of Y and 𝔪 a closed point of U, we denote by A ? R _𝔪 its local ring in X, by 𝔭 the extension of 𝔮 in A, and by K the algebraic closure of the residue field k(𝔭).

Then there exists a bijection γ^𝔪:Proj(G _𝔭(A) ?  _A/𝔭 k) → Proj(G(A _𝔭) ?  _k(𝔭)K) such that for every subset Σ of Proj(G _𝔭(A) ?  _A/𝔭 k), the Hilbert function of Σ coincides with the Hilbert function of γ^𝔪(Σ). We examine some applications. We study the structure of the tangent cone at a closed point of a codimension one ordinary multiple subvariety.     

THE ECONOMICS OF CONFLICTING INTERESTS: NORTHERN BALTIC SALMON FISHERY ADAPTION TO GRAY SEAL ABUNDANCE

The successful conservation of gray seals has led to increased seal‐induced damage to the Atlantic salmon fisheries of the Baltic Sea. This paper addresses the conflict between the conservation of a formerly endangered species, the gray seal, and professional fishermen, whose livelihoods are affected by both seal‐induced damage and salmon fisheries management. We develop a bioeconomic model that incorporates the age structure of Atlantic salmon and gray seal populations. To determine the social optimum, we maximize the discounted net present value of the trap net fishery, taking into account the presence of seals in the form of seal‐induced losses, which we describe using a damage function. By choosing the optimal combination of fishing gear over time, we obtain the socially optimal fishing efforts, salmon stock size, and salmon catch. In addition, we study the private effects of introducing a technology subsidy aimed at mitigating the seal‐salmon conflict. The results suggest that technological adaptation would effectively reduce the cause of the conflict, while a technology subsidy encouraging such adaptation would shift the economic responsibility from individual fishermen to the broader public.