Asymptotic Expansions for the Distribution of the Maximum of Gaussian Random Fields

Some asymptotic results are proved for the distribution of the maximum of a centered Gaussian random field with unit variance on a compact subset S of ^N . They are obtained by a Rice method and the evaluation of some moments of the number of local maxima of the Gaussian field above an high level inside S and on the border S. Depending on the geometry of the border we give up to N+1 terms of the expansion sometimes with exponentially small remainder. Application to waves maximum is shown.     

Expansions for the distribution and the maximum from distributions with an asymptotically gamma tail when a trend is present

We give expansions about the Gumbel distribution in inverse powers of n and log n for Mn, the maximum of a sample size n or n + 1 when the j-th observation is μ(j/n) + ej, μ is any smooth trend function and the residuals {ej } are independent and identically distributed with P(e r) ≈ exp(-δx)xd0∑∞k=1ckx-kβ as x →∞. We illustrate practical value of the expansions using simulated data sets.     

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In this paper, we discuss tail asymptoticsproperties for a class of infinite phase type distributions based onprobability generating function or Laplace-Stieltjes transform. The results show that, unlike finite phase cases, the tail asymptotics for the infinite phase type distributions we considered do not decay geometrically or exponentially.     

On Subexponential Distributions and Asymptotics of the Distribution of the Maximum of Sequential Sums

We study the properties of subexponential distributions and find new sufficient and necessary conditions for membership in the class of these distributions. We establish a connection between the classes of subexponential and semiexponential distributions and give conditions for preservation of the asymptotics of subexponential distributions for functions of distributions. We address similar problems for the class of the so-called locally subexponential distributions. As an application of these results, we refine the asymptotics of the distribution of the supremum of sequential sums of random variables with negative drift, in particular, local theorems.     

Asymptotic Expansions for Large Deviation Probabilities of Noncentral Generalized Chi-Square Distributions

Asymptotic expansions for large deviation probabilities are used to approximate the cumulative distribution functions of noncentral generalized chi-square distributions, preferably in the far tails. The basic idea of how to deal with the tail probabilities consists in first rewriting these probabilities as large parameter values of the Laplace transform of a suitably defined function f_k; second making a series expansion of this function, and third applying a certain modification of Watson's lemma. The function f_k is deduced by applying a geometric representation formula for spherical measures to the multivariate domain of large deviations under consideration. At the so-called dominating point, the largest main curvature of the boundary of this domain tends to one as the large deviation parameter approaches infinity. Therefore, the dominating point degenerates asymptotically. For this reason the recent multivariate asymptotic expansion for large deviations in Breitung and Richter (1996, J. Multivariate Anal.58, 1–20) does not apply. Assuming a suitably parametrized expansion for the inverse g⁻¹ of the negative logarithm of the density-generating function, we derive a series expansion for the function f_k. Note that low-order coefficients from the expansion of g⁻¹ influence practically all coefficients in the expansion of the tail probabilities. As an application, classification probabilities when using the quadratic discriminant function are discussed.     

Non-uniform Estimates in Asymptotic Expansions with a Stable Limit Distribution

Under pseudomoment conditions a non-uniform bound is proved for the remainder in asymptotic expansions with a stable limit law, where the quality of the bound with respect to the number of random variables is as good as that with respect to the argument. Further, a theorem for large deviations in the symmetrical problem is obtained.     

Limit Theorems for the Maximum Terms of a Sequence of Random Variables with Marginal Geometric Distributions

Let X _n1 ^* , ... X _nn ^* be a sequence of n independent random variables which have a geometric distribution with the parameter p _n = 1/n, and M _n ^* = \max\{X _n1 ^* , ... X _nn ^* }. Let Z ₁, Z₂, Z₃, ... be a sequence of independent random variables with the uniform distribution over the set N _n = {1, 2, ... n}. For each j N _n let us denote X _nj = min{k : Z_k = j}, M _n = max{X_n1, ... X_nn}, and let S _n be the 2nd largest among X _n1, X_n2, ... X_nn. Using the methodology of verifying D(u_n) and D'(u_n) mixing conditions we prove herein that the maximum M _n has the same type I limiting distribution as the maximum M _n ^* and estimate the rate of convergence. The limiting bivariate distribution of (S_n, M_n) is also obtained. Let _n, _n N_n, , and T _n = min{M(A_n), M(B_n)}. We determine herein the limiting distribution of random variable T _n in the case _n , _n/_n > 0, as n .     

On the Maximum Likelihood estimation of a linear structural relationship when the intercept is known

This paper considers the Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation of the five parameters of a linear structural relationship y = α + βx when α is known. The parameters are β, the two variances of observation errors on x and y, the mean and variance of x. When the ML estimates of the parameters cannot be obtained by solving a simple simultaneous system of five equations, they are found by maximizing the likelihood function directly. Some asymptotic properties of the estimates are also obtained.     

Limiting Distributions for the Maximum of a Symmetric Function on a Random Point Set

Let U ₁, U ₂, ... be a sequence of independent random points taking values in a measurable space (S, Σ) according to a common probability P and let R be a symmetric, Borel/ -measurable function. Let H _n = max{h(U _i ,U _j ): 1≤ i < j≤ n} denote the maximum h-value over pairs of distinct points from U ₁,U ₂,...,U _n . Assumptions on the distribution of h(U ₁,·) are provided under which a continuous function of H _n converges in law to an extreme-value distribution upon suitable rescaling. The work is complementary to that appearing in Appel et al. (1999) J. Theor. Probab. 12, 27–47. on the almost-sure limiting behavior of H _n . In the first of two examples, the main result applied to the case of i.i.d. points distributed uniformly on the surface of a unit hypersphere in R ^d provides the limiting distribution of the maximum pairwise distance (chord length) among the first n of the points. The second example exhibits the limiting distribution of the minimum pair-wise distance among the first n of i.i.d. uniform points in a compact subset of R ^d .      

Expansions about the Gamma for the Distribution and Quantiles of a Standard Estimate

We give expansions for the distribution, density, and quantiles of an estimate, building on results of Cornish, Fisher, Hill, Davis and the authors. The estimate is assumed to be non-lattice with the standard expansions for its cumulants. By expanding about a skew variable with matched skewness, one can drastically reduce the number of terms needed for a given level of accuracy. The building blocks generalize the Hermite polynomials. We demonstrate with expansions about the gamma.     

含趋势项强相依非平稳序列的两个重要分布

{ηn}为平稳标准化正态序列,相关系数r|t-j|=Cov(ηu,ηj),若rnlogn→∞时,Leadbetter[1]等得到了序列最大值的渐近分布.本文考虑非平稳带有趋势项序列{ηn},得到了序列最大值的渐近分布和最大值与部分和的联合渐近分布.     

Asymptotic Expansions for Stationary Distributions of Nonlinearly Perturbed Semi-Markov Processes. 1

Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability - New algorithms for construction of asymptotic expansions for stationary distributions of nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes with finite...     

Asymptotic Expansions for Stationary Distributions of Nonlinearly Perturbed Semi-Markov Processes. 2

Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability - Asymptotic expansions with explicit upper bounds for remainders are given for stationary distributions of nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov...     

Bayesian Inference for the Beta-Binomial Distribution via Polynomial Expansions

A commonly used paradigm in modeling count data is to assume that individual counts are generated from a Binomial distribution, with probabilities varying between individuals according to a Beta distribution. The marginal distribution of the counts is then BetaBinomial. Bradlow, Hardie, and Fader (2002, p. 189) make use of polynomial expansions to simplify Bayesian computations with Negative-Binomial distributed data. This article exploits similar expansions to facilitate Bayesian inference with data from the Beta-Binomial model. This has great application and computational importance to many problems, as previous research has resorted to computationally intensive numerical integration or Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques.     

关于一类复合幂级数展开式的收敛性定理

本文研究了一类复合型幂级数展开式,证明了一个收敛性定理并举例说明其应用.在注记中指出了可进一步研究的问题.     

A Diagnostic Plot for Estimating the Tail Index of a Distribution

The problem of estimating the tail index in heavy-tailed distributions is very important in many applications. We propose a new graphical method that deals with this problem by selecting an appropriate number of upper order statistics. We also investigate the method's theoretical properties are investigated. Several real datasets are analyzed using this new procedure and a simulation study is carried out to examine its performance in small, moderate and large samples. The results suggest that the new procedure overcomes many of the shortcomings present in some of the most common techniques—for example, the Hill and Zipf plots—used in the estimation of the tail index, and it performs very competitively when compared with other adaptive threshold procedures based on the asymptotic mean squared error of the Hill estimator.     

T-SPH排队队长平稳分布的尾部分析

在复杂随机模型的研究中,经常会出现水平和位相都是无限的拟生灭过程,对这类过程,平稳分布的计算仍然是一个未很好解决的难题.然而对一类比较特殊三对角无限位相拟生灭过程,简记为T-QBD过程,文献[1]指出,在一定条件下可以估计其平稳分布的尾部特征.本文对文献[1]1中提出的方法在某一环节上作了改进,使之更适合于实际计算,并用此方法分析了两个具有实际应用背景的排队模型,即T-SPH/M/1排队和M/T-SPH/1排队,分析结果表明,在一定条件下,这两类排队系统的队长分布的尾部都具有几何衰减的特性.     

Tail Calculus with Remainder,Applications to Tail Expansions for Infinite Order Moving Averages,Randomly Stopped Sums,and Related Topics

We derive asymptotic expansions for tails of infinite weighted convolutions of some heavy-tailed distributions. Applications are given to tail expansion of the marginal distribution of ARMA processes, randomly stopped sums, as well as limiting waiting time distribution. AMS 2000 Subject Classifications. Primary—62E99, Secondary—41A60, 44A35, 60G50, 60K25     

两个未知均值方差混合模型有限制下对数极大似然比的极限分布

本文讨论了检验样本是来自一个正态总体还是两个未知均值和方差的正态的混合分布,采用对数极大似然比的检验,如果不加限制,Ｈａｒｔｉｎｇａｎｍ曾指出不是寻找的、Ｘ＾２分布,我们在混合的中了一点后得到了其极限分布产工给出了分位点数值表。     

Truncated Estimation of Ratio Statistics with Application to Heavy Tail Distributions

The problem of estimation of the heavy tail index is revisited from the point of view of truncated estimation. A class of novel estimators is introduced having guaranteed accuracy based on a sample of fixed size. The performance of these estimators is quantified both theoretically and in simulations over a host of relevant examples. It is also shown that in several cases the proposed estimators attain — within a logarithmic factor — the optimal parametric rate of convergence. The property of uniform asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators is established.