基于大数据分析的移动对象轨迹预测方法

对移动对象的轨迹预测将在移动目标跟踪识别中具有较好的应用价值。移动对象轨迹预测的基础是移动目标运动参量的采集和估计,移动目标的运动参量信息特征规模较大,传统的单分量时间序列分析方法难以实现准确的参量估计和轨迹预测。提出一种基于大数据多传感信息融合跟踪的移动对象轨迹预测算法。首先进行移动目标对象进行轨迹跟踪的控制对象描述和约束参量分析,对轨迹预测的大规模运动参量信息进行信息融合和自正整定性控制,通过大数据分析方法实现对移动对象运动参量的准确估计和检测,由此指导移动对象轨迹的准确预测,提高预测精度。仿真结果表明,采用该算法进行移动对象的运动参量估计和轨迹预测的精度较高,自适应性能较强,稳健性较好,相关的指标性能优于传统方法。     

ICP-AES测定高浓度基体下杂质元素的偏最小二乘法研究

建立了ICP-AES测定高浓度基体中微量杂质元素的偏最小二乘方法(PLS)。研究表明,PLS能有效校正高浓度基体干扰引起的测量误差,比多元光谱拟合法(MSF)能承受的基体浓度更高。当基体与杂质的含量比为1 000∶1～20 000∶1时,该方法的加标回收率在95%～105%之间。对于干扰效应与基体浓度呈非线性相关的体系,普通PLS的预测准确度不高,但使用基于样品浓度矩阵变换的偏最小二乘法(LIN-PPLS),则明显改善了预测的准确度。分别用MSF、普通PLS和LIN-PPLS对水系沉积物国家标准物质GBW07312中的Co,Pb和Ga进行测定,结果表明,LIN-PPLS的预测准确度优于普通PLS,而普通PLS的预测准确度优于MSF。     

无线光码分多址中一种改进的盲多用户检测算法

干扰消除是无线光码分多址(CDMA)通信系统中的一项关键技术。分析了基于递归最小二乘(RLS)算法的盲多用户检测算法的原理及性能,并将其应用于采用光正交码的无线光CDMA系统中。讨论了该系统中遗忘因子的选取原则及其对算法的收敛性和系统误码率性能的影响。为了克服固定遗忘因子所带来的矛盾,提出了一种改进的变遗忘因子RLS盲多用户检测算法,并对遗忘因子进行了修正。结果表明,采用改进的方法后系统能获得较快的收敛速度和跟踪速度,收敛时的估计误差也较小,而且信号干扰比由传统算法的6dB提高到9dB。说明采用变遗忘因子的RLS算法不仅适合于采用光正交码的无线光CDMA系统,而且跟踪期望用户信号的性能良好。     

基于Huber的高阶容积卡尔曼跟踪算法

为改善高阶容积卡尔曼滤波算法的滤波精度和鲁棒性, 提出了一种新的基于Huber的高阶容积卡尔曼滤波算法. 在采用统计线性回归模型近似非线性量测模型的基础上, 利用Huber M 估计算法实现状态的量测更新. 进一步结合高阶球面-径向容积准则的状态预测模块构成基于 Huber的高阶容积卡尔曼跟踪算法. 重点分析了Huber代价函数的调节因子对算法跟踪性能的影响. 通过对纯方位目标跟踪和再入飞行器跟踪两个实例验证了所提算法的跟踪性能优于传统高阶容积卡尔曼滤波算法.     

Study on welded seam recognition using circular laser vision sensor

A novel visual robotic arc welding system based on circular laser vision sensor is developed. After image de-noising, image segmentation, and image thinning, the relation of depth value of workpiece and off-axis angle γ, three-dimensional (3D) calculation, and seam tracking experiments are carried out. Finally, the error for seam tracking system is analyzed. The results show that 1) 3D information can be obtained using the proposed visual robotic arc welding system and the real-time seam tracking is realized; 2) the seam tracking error is small enough for gas tungsten arc welding (GTAW) process, and this system can be used for seam location and seam tracking or seam finder.     

农产品品质光谱成像的空间预测规律

由于受到化学检测手段限制,无法获取光谱图像中的农产品品质在各像素位置处的参考值,因此无法直接验证基于光谱图像得到的农产品品质空间预测结果。为探索基于光谱图像的农产品空间品质检测规律,本文采用计算机生成已知空间品质样本,并分别以固定曝光和变曝光方式采集不同灰度等级标准板的光谱图像。定量分析采集系统误差,借助样本区域光谱与区域指标之间的全波段偏最小二乘（ALL-PLS）和遗传特征波长偏最小二乘（GA-PLS）预测函数,研究出区域指标预测准确时样本空间品质指标的预测精度规律,建立光谱成像空间预测准确度模型。实验结果表明：变曝光方式下的数据采集可以提高光谱图像信噪比,在波段两侧极限处尤为明显;应用区域品质数据预测空间品质分布,空间预测误差主要受光谱图像采集噪声影响：即使区域预测准确,空间预测可能已完全失真。通过衡量数据采集系统误差,可以间接评价农产品品质空间预测的准确度。只有在数据采集系统误差在允许范围内时,光谱成像技术才可准确预测农产品品质的空间分布。     

基于光谱指数的不同叶倾角分布下玉米冠层叶绿素含量反演

遥感是开展地面/近地面、航空及航天层次无损伤探测植物叶绿素信息的主要手段。目前多波段计算光谱指数方法已被广泛地应用于植被冠层叶绿素含量的经验/半经验反演及应用中。考虑不同作物及同种作物不同品种间存在着一定的植被叶倾角分布(LAD)特征差异,针对叶倾角分布对光谱指数反演冠层叶绿素含量(CCC)的影响进行分析,并开展针对叶倾角分布变化不敏感的叶绿素相关光谱指数优选和冠层叶绿素反演建模研究。基于PROSAIL辐射传输模型模拟了不同叶片叶绿素含量(LCC)、叶面积指数(LAI)和LAD对应的冠层反射率数据。模拟结果显示,在相同LAI和LCC条件下,不同LAD对应的冠层反射率有明显差异,冠层反射率随着平均叶倾角的增加而降低。通过计算12个常用的叶绿素相关光谱指数与CCC的相关性指标,来评估光谱指数在不同LAD下反演叶绿素含量的敏感性差异,并依次优选出MTCI,MNDVI8,MNDVI1和CI_red-edge4个对LAD变化较不敏感的叶绿素相关光谱指数。利用玉米实测数据对光谱指数进行冠层叶绿素估测的建模和模型检验,模型的建立和验证结果显示,MNDVI8对LAD变化最不敏感,反演模型的精度最高,决定系数R2=0.70,均方根误差RMSE=22.47 μg·cm-2。CI_red-edge(R2=0.63,RMSE=24.06 μg·cm-2),MNDVI(R2=0.66,RMSE=24.07 μg·cm-2)和MTCI(R2=0.65,RMSE=26.76 μg·cm-2)反演模型的精度较为接近并稍弱于MNDVI8。通过对反演结果分析得出结论,不同的光谱指数对LAD变化的敏感性不同,优选的光谱指数普遍对叶绿素含量具有较好的相关性和敏感性,其中MNDVI8受LAD影响最小,能较高精度的反演LAD变化下的玉米冠层叶绿素含量。优选的其他光谱指数MTCI,CI_red-edge和MNDVI1反演能力虽然稍弱于MNDVI8,但受LAD影响较小,同样具有较好的反演能力。该工作开展LAD对光谱指数叶绿素反演的敏感性分析和光谱指数优选研究,其实测数据的检验结果和模拟数据的分析结果一致;基于优选光谱指数的冠层叶绿素含量反演建模结果及精度分析结论,对开展缺乏叶倾角分布差异先验知识下的大范围作物叶绿素含量遥感估测和应用具有借鉴意义。     

一种多基阵机动目标被动跟踪算法

由多部声纳基阵获取的方位信息对水中机动目标的跟踪实质上是一个非线性状态估计问题,文中首先依据各基阵的方位信息,采用最小二乘法得到目标位置在各采样时刻的初步估计,然后将其作为测量值用于交互多模型算法(IMM)并结合线性卡尔曼滤波(KF)得到目标运动速度和轨迹,避免了应用非线性估计算法直接进行多个方位数据融合过程中存在的各种问题。仿真结果表明这一算法简便,与双基阵纯方位机动目标被动跟踪相比具有较快的收敛速度和较高的跟踪精度。     

Estimating time to contact during pursuit eye movements: Comparison between geometric model prediction and human performance

While an object is approaching a particular location, we can make an estimate of the time when the object will arrive at that location. A geometric model predicts that the estimate of time-to-contact (TTC) is greatly improved by using the rate of change of visual direction of the object when the object is moving with a slow velocity toward a point of nearest approach at a distance far from the observer. It has been shown that pursuit eye movements provide the rate of change of visual direction of an approaching object. We conducted psychophysical experiments, and compared TTC estimates during pursuit eye movements to those during fixation. We found that the differences in TTC estimates between fixation and pursuit show a qualitatively similar pattern to the geometric model prediction. However, the results also show that the magnitudes of the TTC estimation errors are greater than the theoretical values from the geometric model, indicating that the human visual system has a perceptual bias in estimating TTC. These results suggest that the human visual system estimates TTC during pursuit eye movements in a different way from the geometric model, although the effect of these eye movements on TTC estimates in human performance is qualitatively consistent with the model prediction.     

Nonlinear Time Series Prediction Using LS-SVM with Chaotic Mutation Evolutionary Programming for Parameter Optimization

Nonlinear time series prediction is studied by using an improved least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) regression based on chaotic mutation evolutionary programming (CMEP) approach for parameter optimization.We analyze how the prediction error varies with different parameters (σ, γ) in LS-SVM. In order to select appropriate parameters for the prediction model, we employ CMEP algorithm. Finally, Nasdaq stock data are predicted by using this LS-SVM regression based on CMEP, and satisfactory results are obtained.     

基于差分吸收光谱法的大气痕量气体在线检测技术

差分光学吸收光谱学技术（Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy,DOAS）是近年来发展起来的一种实时检测大气中痕量气体浓度的有效方法,它采用线性最小二乘拟合方法,用痕量气体标准差分吸收截面对测量得到的差分吸收光谱进行拟合,得出大气中痕量气体的浓度。通过介绍DOAS方法的测量原理,在线监测系统的构成,气体浓度的反演方法,测量结果及讨论等内容,说明它在空气质量监测方面的优越性。     

有机堆肥中作物营养元素钾的近红外光谱快速分析

对近红外光谱数据进行小波变换,利用处理后的小波系数,采用偏最小二乘法预测了有机肥料中钾离子(K+)的含量,建立了小波变换与近红外光谱技术结合用于测定奶牛粪便为主的有机堆肥产品样品中无机钾离子测定的模型。结果表明： 小波变换充分提取了近红外光谱的信息,数据压缩为原始大小的3.6%,计算量大大减少;文章利用C4小波系数对48个有机肥料样本进行建模,对42个预示集样本进行预测,预示集的RMSEP(root mean square error of prediction)和r2(correlation coefficient)分别为0.113 8%和0.927,优于原始光谱直接建模的0.167 2%和0.835%。基于小波系数的模型优于传统的全谱模型,对于无机离子(K+)的测定可以取得较为准确的预测结果。     

改进联合多站多伯努利滤波器的水下多目标跟踪

针对水下多站多目标跟踪问题,基于多站多伯努利滤波器思想,提出改进联合多站多伯努利滤波器的水下多目标跟踪方法。该方法有两处改进:首先在目标数变化场景,为了获得新生目标状态,提出基于节点分对组合随机观测新目标生成方法,该方法将观测节点两两分对,并进行观测对间组合,以相同概率随机选择观测对组合来生成新目标信息;其次为了输出连续、稳定航迹,提出基于统计双门限的航迹生成方法,该方法对超过第一门限的检测次数进行累加,并将结果与第二门限比较来控制目标航迹输出。仿真结果表明:(1)基于节点分对组合随机观测新目标生成方法能够正确生成新目标信息,与全局交叉定位目标生成方法相比,算法复杂度降低,并与节点数成线性关系;(2)基于统计双门限航迹生成方法能够实时输出稳定航迹,并且其最优子模式指派(OSPA)距离对比不使用该航迹生成方法时减少20%左右。     

近红外光谱技术用于复杂植物样品中无机离子测定的新方法

植物样品中的无机离子以一定形式与具有近红外吸收的有机基团结合, 因而可以借助近红外光谱技术测定其含量。对烟草样品近红外光谱数据及其小波变换处理后的小波系数,采用偏最小二乘法预测其中钾离子的含量,建立了小波变换与近红外光谱技术结合用于复杂植物样品中无机离子测定的新方法。结果表明：近红外光谱数据压缩为原始大小的3.3%,基本上没有光谱信息的丢失; 基于小波系数的模型优于传统的全谱模型,对于无机离子的测定可以取得较为准确的预测结果。     

彩色超声血流成像中基于回波频率跟踪的正交解调方法

为了消除由超声频率下移所引起的血流速度估计精度的下降,提出了一种基于回波频率跟踪的正交解调方法。首先建立了回波中心频率随深度下移的线性模型;然后使用传统I/Q(Inphase/Quadrature)解调方法得到有偏的基带信号,采用自相关方法沿深度方向分段估计中心频率的下移量,并利用估计出的这些值对所建立的线性模型进行拟合;最后利用拟合后的模型来实时跟踪回波的中心频率,并将其作为参考频率再进行I/Q解调。仿真和试验结果表明,基于回波频率跟踪的正交解调方法能够得到近似无偏的基带信号,提高血流速度估计的准确度和精度,改善彩色超声血流成像的质量。     

Improved Dividend Estimation from Intraday Quotes

Liquid financial markets, such as the options market of the S&P 500 index, create vast amounts of data every day, i.e., so-called intraday data. However, this highly granular data is often reduced to single-time when used to estimate financial quantities. This under-utilization of the data may reduce the quality of the estimates. In this paper, we study the impacts on estimation quality when using intraday data to estimate dividends. The methodology is based on earlier linear regression (ordinary least squares) estimates, which have been adapted to intraday data. Further, the method is also generalized in two aspects. First, the dividends are expressed as present values of future dividends rather than dividend yields. Second, to account for heteroscedasticity, the estimation methodology was formulated as a weighted least squares, where the weights are determined from the market data. This method is compared with a traditional method on out-of-sample S&P 500 European options market data. The results show that estimations based on intraday data have, with statistical significance, a higher quality than the corresponding single-times estimates. Additionally, the two generalizations of the methodology are shown to improve the estimation quality further.     

Selection of optimal combinations of inputs in a partial least squares model for prediction of soil organic matter

Abstract

Partial least squares model is widely used in estimation of soil physical and chemical parameters such as soil organic matter and moisture content, due to its advantages in dealing with collinearity of variables like hyperspectral reflectance. However, it is hard to determine optimal combination of partial least squares model input for soil organic matter prediction since there are lots of possibilities such as, different mathematical transformation of spectral reflectance, wavelength ranges, and spectral resolution. Laboratory hyperspectral reflectance of soils in Songnen plain were analyzed in this study, and the orthogonal experimental design method for deriving optimal combination of input variables for soil organic matter prediction models was introduced. For intercalating orthogonal experimental design table, five different levels which commonly used by researchers were assigned to factors. Results show that the optimal combination input for single black soil is using the derivative logarithmic reciprocal reflectance in the wavelength range selected by multiple stepwise regression at a spectral resolution of 5?nm (R²=?0.95, RMSE?=?0.21, and RPD?=?4.49), and different soils is using continuum removed in the wavelength range selected by MSR at a spectral resolution of 5?nm (R²?=?0.77, RMSE?=?0.74, and RPD?=?2.08). With optimal combination input, the partial least squares model prediction ability was evaluated as excellent for single black soil, possible for different soils. This study illustrates the orthogonal experimental design method can be an effective way to identify the optimal input variables of a partial least squares model for soil organic matter prediction, and multiple stepwise regression can be a preprocessing step to reduce hyperspectral data redundancy before using partial least squares to predict soil organic matter. Overall, this study provides a new approach for determining optimal input of partial least squares predicting model.     

确定离子交换平面波导折射率分布的预测-校验法

提出一种基于反WKB法与分段线性插值的最小二乘拟合方法(即预测-校验方法)来确定离子交换玻璃波导的横向折射率分布,它将反WKB法与分段线性插值所计算出的结果作为近似值(预测),然后进行最小二乘拟合(校验),并与基于反WKB的分段线性插值方法进行比较.数值计算表明,这一算法能有效地重建渐变离子交换平面波导的横向折射率分布.     

精确跟瞄控制技术研究

针对目标跟瞄多功能的需求,将最小方差估计和跟踪控制的思想结合,设计了一种跟瞄控制器,实现了目标位置预测与伺服控制的融合,优化了系统结构。采用基于当前统计模型的改进卡尔曼滤波算法,预测出目标运动状态参数;采用自适应滑模的解算控制方法,实现伺服系统的位置控制。通过仿真实验,系统状态稳定,抗干扰能力加强,通过对数据分析,跟瞄精度明显提高。     

精确跟瞄控制技术研究

针对目标跟瞄多功能的需求,将最小方差估计和跟踪控制的思想结合,设计了一种跟瞄控制器,实现了目标位置预测与伺服控制的融合,优化了系统结构。采用基于当前统计模型的改进卡尔曼滤波算法,预测出目标运动状态参数;采用自适应滑模的解算控制方法,实现伺服系统的位置控制。通过仿真实验,系统状态稳定,抗干扰能力加强,通过对数据分析,跟瞄精度明显提高。