调水工程线路方案优选的灰色系统模型及其应用

调水工程为解决区域间水资源分布不均衡问题提供了一种有效途径 .调水工程线路方案的优选问题涉及社会、经济、环境、技术等多方面的因素 ,是一个复杂的多目标决策问题 .本文建立了其评价指标体系 ,应用 AHP法和信息熵方法相结合确定评价指标权重 ,建立了调水工程线路方案优选的灰色系统评价模型 .算例显示方法的有效性 .     

投资项目选择的风险评价AHP模型及其应用

论述了投资项目选择问题的重要性 ,对常用的投资项目选择方法进行了综述分析 ,探讨了投资项目选择的风险评价指标体系和层次分析法的基本原理 ,提出了投资项目选择的风险评价层次分析模型 ,并以实例说明了如何将层次分析法应用于投资项目选择的风险评价问题 .     

Multi-criteria decision making approaches for supplier evaluation and selection: A literature review

Supplier evaluation and selection problem has been studied extensively. Various decision making approaches have been proposed to tackle the problem. In contemporary supply chain management, the performance of potential suppliers is evaluated against multiple criteria rather than considering a single factor-cost. This paper reviews the literature of the multi-criteria decision making approaches for supplier evaluation and selection. Related articles appearing in the international journals from 2000 to 2008 are gathered and analyzed so that the following three questions can be answered: (i) Which approaches were prevalently applied? (ii) Which evaluating criteria were paid more attention to? (iii) Is there any inadequacy of the approaches? Based on the inadequacy, if any, some improvements and possible future work are recommended. This research not only provides evidence that the multi-criteria decision making approaches are better than the traditional cost-based approach, but also aids the researchers and decision makers in applying the approaches effectively.     

基于灰色系统理论的工程项目评标方法研究

工程项目评标实质是多目标决策问题,为优先出合适的投标单位,建立灰色Euclid理论工程项目评标决策模型.首先,运用层次分析法(AHP)与信息熵法分别确定主客观权重.然后利用博弈集结模型对指标体系进行组合赋权,得到综合权重.最后,结合工程项目评标实例运用灰色Euclid理论评标模型进行评标决策.结果表明,运用博弈集结组合赋权和灰色Euclid理论模型选出投标单位D为最优方案,与实际评标一致,验证了模型的可操作性和适用性.     

Developments in time preference and their implications for medical decision making

The field of time preference is developing rapidly. It concerns important concepts for many economic issues. One important domain of application is health economics. This paper reviews several empirical and theoretical developments for time preference with special attention to the health economics field. In addition, the implications for medical decision making, long-term health-care planning and health economic evaluation are discussed. Recognition of this empirical evidence in health-care policy making is recommended, as well as a more transparent process of the framing and analysis of, and deliberation on, public policy.     

ANP法在区域企业技术创新能力评价中的应用

在应用网络层次分析法(ANP)进行综合评价中存在两个问题:一是网络层次结构中子系统内部的依存关系往往缺乏实质性的阐述和研究,而这是网络层次结构的关键;二是没有通过实例比较网络层次法和层次分析法,证明网络层次分析法的实用价值.以区域企业技术创新能力的评价为背景,分别应用网络层次分析法(ANP)和层次分析法(AHP)建立评价指标体系,并利用各省数据评价了区域企业技术创新能力的现状,给出了政策建议,以期为制定区域企业技术创新战略、规划等提供了定量参考依据.     

基于多属性群决策的软件可靠性模型选择方案

基于模型评价准则的属性值和专家经验的偏好信息进行软件可靠性增长模型的选择,可归结为多属性群决策问题.模型评价准则的主观专家偏好可利用层次分析方法将其量化得到其主观排序权重;基于失效数据的模型评价准则的计算数据可利用熵权法获得客观排序权重.综合两种权重可得到既能反映专家经验又能综合实际软件可靠性测试数据的模型评价方案.实例分析表明该方案具有合理性和可行性.     

A fuzzy multi-criteria decision analysis model for advanced technology assessment at Kennedy Space Center

The rapid development of computer and information technology has made project evaluation and selection a difficult task at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Shuttle Project Engineering Office. Decision Makers (DMs) are required to consider a vast amount of intuitive and analytical information in the decision process. Fuzzy Euclid is a Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) model that captures the DMs’ beliefs through a series of intuitive and analytical methods such as the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and subjective probability estimation. A defuzzification method is used to obtain crisp values from the subjective judgments provided by multiple DMs. These crisp values are synthesized with Entropy and the theory of displaced ideal to assist the DMs in their selection process by plotting the alternative projects in a four-zone graph based on their Euclidean distance from the ‘ideal choice’.     

江苏省区域经济发展水平实证分析——时序多指标综合评价方法及应用

区域经济发展水平是政策制定和管理决策的基础。不同于通常的静态评价方法,本文采用了一种时序多指标的系统工程评价方法,首先对时序多指标数据进行标准化处理,接着求出评价指标和评价年份各自的加权系数,然后确定出各年度的和综合的经济效益评价值,据此进行了聚类分析,将江苏省13个地区分成五类,最后根据评价结果提出一些政策建议。     

基于FAHP的择偶偏好的探讨

择偶是社会成员以婚恋为目的选择异性对象的一种行为,是婚姻过程中一个十分重要的环节,如何选择一个适合自己的配偶就成为了当今社会的一个重要问题.从解决多属性决策问题的角度来思考择偶问题,并采用了层次分析法与模糊理论相结合的方法对择偶的评价与选择进行了分析,初次提出了择偶吻合度的概念,并在此基础上建立了择偶指标评价体系模型.通过案例具体分析了择偶的评价与选择的过程,分析结果表明方法处理择偶问题是有效的.     

基于灰色局势决策的采煤工艺评价与选择

采煤工艺的评价与选择是一个多目标规划,煤矿生产条件具有复杂性,地下工程具有信息不完备性,为避免受到人为主观因素的影响,能够对采煤工艺的选择提供客观评价的依据,采用灰色局势决策的方法,建立多目标综合决策矩阵,计算综合效果测度进行决策,评价结果与模糊综合评价法、灰色聚类法和灰色关联分析法相比较基本一致,灰色局势决策的方法较传统方法更精确,更有效,该方法在决策矿业工程中信息不完备问题时,具有一定的参考价值和指导意义.     

A multi-methodological approach for shipping registry selection in maritime transportation industry

Selecting the most suitable registry alternative for shipping fleets has become a highly complex strategic activity for ship owners in the maritime transportation industry, and necessitates consideration of both internal and external environmental factors, which can be both qualitative and quantitative. The aim of this paper is to propose an originally structured multi-methodological approach based on the systematic application of the SWOT analysis, the AHP and the TOPSIS methods to support the critical decision process on shipping registry selection under multiple criteria. In the proposed approach, the SWOT analysis is utilized to determine the key assessment factors on the shipping registry decision and to structure the decision hierarchy. While the AHP is used to measure the relative importance of evaluation criteria in this decision hierarchy, the TOPSIS is applied to rank the shipping registry alternatives. As a case study, major open registries are analyzed to select the most suitable of them for the fleet that is operated by a worldwide ship owner. The results show that the proposed multi-methodological approach takes the advantages of the SWOT analysis, the AHP and the TOPSIS to select the most suitable shipping registry. The proposed approach also provides a relatively simple and very well suited decision-making tool for this type of strategic decision making problem.     

基于相对熵排序的建筑工程项目投标决策

投标决策是施工企业面对的重要问题.在建筑工程项目投标问题上,先建立风险指标体系,再结合层次分析法和信息熵法求得风险指标的综合权重,然后借助相对熵排序法,对各个方案进行综合评价,得到有效反映各方案差异的评价模型,通过对比可知此法可行有效,且灵敏度高.     

基于多维风险视角的政府卫生保健资源配置决策行为研究

研究在疾病风险和医学治疗风险同时共存的情形下,政府卫生保健资源的优先配置行为决策问题.当存在治疗风险(患病风险)时,分析病人患病的不确定性(治疗的不确定性)对政府卫生保健资源的配置效应,同时给出配置更多的卫生资源到更高风险病人群体的社会规划者的风险偏好条件.当这两类风险是局部的或正象限依赖的风险时,研究两种来源的风险对政府卫生保健资源的配置的联合影响.将之前学者提出的卫生保健资源的配置模型扩展到两类风险共存的情形,同时对于不确定下的卫生保健资源配置决策问题提供新的见解.     

A Thurstonian view of the analytic hierarchy process

The application of deterministic decision models in situations characterized by noise and uncertainty is likely to produce results of questionable value. In this paper, some very simple probabilistic models are developed and substituted for the deterministic scales used in the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). It is shown that the use of these probabilistic models can extend the domain of AHP to situations, such as consensual or group decision making, that possess significant amounts of uncertainty. In addition, explicit measures of the variation present in the evaluation of decision alternatives and attributes are obtained.     

Fuzzy multi-objective vendor selection under lean procurement

This paper investigates a fuzzy multi-objective vendor selection program under lean procurement based on cost minimization, delivery schedule violation minimization, and maximizing the quality level of the purchased quantity. Specifically, the paper incorporates the vendor production capacity uncertainty into the model to identify an appropriate selection policy for vendors under practical operating conditions. The use of a soft time-window mechanism for the vendor selection model enables decision makers to further incorporate a time based performance metric for vendor evaluation, based on the degree of urgency or need for a part. A solution algorithm using fuzzy AHP is proposed. The results of a numerical example suggest that decision makers prefer vendors who can promise tighter delivery schedules rather than on cost or quality. A sensitivity analysis of the soft time-window on the achievement of the lean procurement objectives is also conducted.     

On rank reversal in decision analysis

Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been criticized for its possible rank reversal phenomenon caused by the addition or deletion of an alternative. This paper shows the fact that the rank reversal phenomenon occurs not only in the AHP but also in many other decision making approaches such as the Borda–Kendall (BK) method for aggregating ordinal preferences, the simple additive weighting (SAW) method, the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method, and the cross-efficiency evaluation method in data envelopment analysis (DEA). Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the rank reversal phenomenon in these popular decision making approaches.     

IMENSE: An e-infrastructure environment for patient specific multiscale data integration,modelling and clinical treatment

Secure access to patient data and analysis tools to run on that data will revolutionize the treatment of a wide range of diseases, by using advanced simulation techniques to underpin the clinical decision making process. To achieve these goals, suitable e-Science infrastructures are required to allow clinicians and researchers to trivially access data and launch simulations. In this paper we describe the open source Individualized MEdiciNe Simulation Environment (IMENSE), which provides a platform to securely manage clinical data, and to perform wide ranging analysis on that data, ultimately with the intention of enhancing clinical decision making with direct impact on patient health care. We motivate the design decisions taken in the development of the IMENSE system by considering the needs of researchers in the ContraCancrum project, which provides a paradigmatic case in which clinicians and researchers require coordinated access to data and simulation tools. We show how the modular nature of the IMENSE system makes it applicable to a wide range of biomedical computing scenarios, from within a single hospital to major international research projects.     

An integrated multiple criteria decision making model applying axiomatic fuzzy set theory

This article presents a hybrid model for the multiple criteria decision making problems. The proposed decision model consists of three parts: (i) DEA (data envelopment analysis) is used to provide the best combination on the performance parameters of original data; (ii) By the application of AFS (axiomatic fuzzy set) theory and AHP (analytic hierarchy process) method, the weight of each attribute is calculated and (iii) TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution) is applied to provide the ranking order of that best combination based on the weights of attributes. In addition, we also provide the definitely semantic interpretations for the decision results by AFS theory. Specially, the model not only employs the performance parameters from raw data, but also considers the preferences from decision-makers that can make the decision results more reasonable. The proposed model is used for robot selection to verify the proposed model. Using the selection index, the evaluation of alternative robots and the selection of the most appropriate are eventually feasible. Moreover, a numerical example for supplier selection is included to illustrate the application of the model for the newly developed problems.     

Project Selection by Constrained Fuzzy AHP

The selection of a project among a set of possible alternatives is a difficult task decision makers have to face. Difficulties in selecting a project arise because of the different goals involved and because of the large number of attributes to consider. Our approach is based upon a fuzzy extension of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). This paper focuses on the constraints that have to be considered within fuzzy AHP in order to take in account all the available information. This study demonstrates that by considering all the information deriving from the constraints better results in terms of certainty and reliability can be achieved.