Evaluating shortfall distributions in periodic inventory systems with stochastic endogenous demands and lead-times

This paper addresses a multi-period production/inventory problem with two suppliers, where demand sizes and supplier lead time are stochastic and correlated. A discrete time, single item inventory system is considered, where inventory levels are reviewed periodically and managed using a base-stock policy. At the end of each period, a replenishment order is placed, which enters a queue at the buffer stage and is consequently forwarded to the first available supplier. We present a mathematical model of this inventory system and determine optimal safety stock levels for it, in closed form, using matrix analytic techniques and the properties of phase type distributions. To account for the effect of order crossovers, which occur whenever replenishment orders do not arrive in the sequence in which they were placed, the inventory shortfall distribution is analyzed. Finally, a set of numerical experiments with a system with two suppliers is presented, where the proposed model is compared to other existing models.     

Multi-item inventory control with full truckloads: A comparison of aggregate and individual order triggering

In this paper, we consider the stochastic joint replenishment problem in an environment where transportation costs are dominant and full truckloads or full container loads are required. One replenishment policy, taking into account capacity restrictions of the total order volume, is the so-called QS policy, where replenishment orders are placed to raise the individual inventory positions of all items to their order-up-to levels, whenever the aggregate inventory position drops below the reorder level. We first provide a method to compute the policy parameters of a QS policy such that item target service levels can be met, under the assumption that demand can be modeled as a compound renewal process. The approximation formulas are based on renewal theory and are tested in a simulation study which reveals good performance. Second, we compare the QS policy with a simple allocation policy where replenishment orders are triggered by the individual inventory positions of the items. At the moment when an individual inventory position drops below its item reorder level, a replenishment order is triggered and the total vehicle capacity is allocated to all items such that the expected elapsed time before the next replenishment order is maximized. In an extensive simulation study it is illustrated that the QS policy outperforms this allocation policy since it results in lower inventory levels for the same service level. Although both policies lead to similar performance if items are identical, it can differ substantially if the item characteristics vary.     

Stock Rationing in a Continuous Review Two-Echelon Inventory Model

In this paper we consider a 1-warehouse, N-retailer inventory system where demand occurs at all locations. We introduce an inventory model which allows us to set different service levels for retailers and direct customer demand at the warehouse. For each retailer a critical level is defined, such that a retailer replenishment order is delivered from warehouse stock if and only if the stock level exceeds this critical level. It is assumed that retailer replenishment orders, which are not satisfied from warehouse stock, are delivered directly from the outside supplier, instead of being backlogged. We present an analytical upper bound on the total cost of the system, and develop a heuristic method to optimize the policy parameters. Numerical experiments indicate that our technique provides a very close approximation of the exact cost. Also, we show that differentiating among the retailers and direct customer demand can yield significant cost reductions.     

Sojourn times in a random queue with and without preemption

We consider an equilibrium M/M/1 queue in which customers arrive at a random position, both for the preemptive and non-preemptive cases. The Laplace–Stieltjes transforms of their sojourn time distributions are derived and in the latter case it is verified that the result is that of an M/M/1 queue where the server chooses the next task to serve at random.     

考虑顾客退货和固定成本的联合补货与定价策略

为了吸引更多顾客,许多电子商务零售商允许顾客在一定时间内退货,导致其利润明显减少。同时,在补货时不仅产生依赖补货量的变动成本,而且会产生与补货量无关的固定成本。基于此,以最大化电子商务零售商的利润为目标,建立考虑顾客退货和固定成本的联合补货与定价模型,其中顾客的退货量与满足的需求呈正比。在一般需求情形下,部分刻画多期问题的最优策略;在特殊需求情形下,证明(s,S,p)策略对单期问题最优,并对多期问题的最优策略进行严格刻画。根据已有刻画为多期问题构造启发式策略。数值结果表明启发式策略近似最优;当初始库存水平足够高/低时,最优补货水平和定价随退货率与固定成本单调变化。关键词:联合补货与定价模型;顾客退货;固定成本;随机动态规划;最优策略     

Reorder Levels for Lumpy Demand

If demand for a product occurs in a few large orders, classical techniques are not suitable for setting the reorder level. When gamma-distributed sized orders arrive stochastically, with usually no more than one during a lead-time, approximate expressions for the optimum reorder level and resulting expected stock-out are derived. Experimental results suggest that this is a good approximation.     

On the Introduction of an Agile, Temporary Workforce into a Tandem Queueing System

We consider a two-station tandem queueing system where customers arrive according to a Poisson process and must receive service at both stations before leaving the system. Neither queue is equipped with dedicated servers. Instead, we consider three scenarios for the fluctuations of workforce level. In the first, a decision-maker can increase and decrease the capacity as is deemed appropriate; the unrestricted case. In the other two cases, workers arrive randomly and can be rejected or allocated to either station. In one case the number of workers can then be reduced (the controlled capacity reduction case). In the other they leave randomly (the uncontrolled capacity reduction case). All servers are capable of working collaboratively on a single job and can work at either station as long as they remain in the system. We show in each scenario that all workers should be allocated to one queue or the other (never split between queues) and that they should serve exhaustively at one of the queues depending on the direction of an inequality. This extends previous studies on flexible systems to the case where the capacity varies over time. We then show in the unrestricted case that the optimal number of workers to have in the system is non-decreasing in the number of customers in either queue. AMS subject classification: 90B22, 90B36     

Optimum inventory policies with discrete time proportional demand,discrete replenishment opportunities and different optimizing criteria

This paper extends the deterministic, single product, dynamic E0Q model to the case where demand increases linearly with time but at discrete time points and where the number of replenishments is also discrete. The problem is to find the number of orders and the replenishment schedule that will either maximize the return on the investment on inventory or minimize inventory costs. The proposed solution to either problem requires to first find the replenishment schedule that will minimize the total inventory throughout the planning horizon, for a given number of orders and then find the optimal number of replenishment points. The solution algorithms exploit the discrete nature of the demand and do not require the decomposability property of dynamic programming. This is particularly important in the return on investment case, where decomposability cannot be achieved.     

Abandonment versus blocking in many-server queues: asymptotic optimality in the QED regime

We consider a controlled queueing system of the $G/M/n/B+GI$ G / M / n / B + G I type, with many servers and impatient customers. The queue-capacity $B$ B is the control process. Customers who arrive at a full queue are blocked and customers who wait too long in the queue abandon. We study the tradeoff between blocking and abandonment, with cost accumulated over a random, finite time-horizon, which yields a queueing control problem (QCP). In the many-server quality and efficiency-driven (QED) regime, we formulate and solve a diffusion control problem (DCP) that is associated with our QCP. The DCP solution is then used to construct asymptotically optimal controls (of the threshold type) for QCP. A natural motivation for our QCP is telephone call centers, hence the QED regime is natural as well. QCP then captures the tradeoff between busy signals and customer abandonment, and our solution specifies an asymptotically optimal number of trunk-lines.     

IPA derivatives for a discrete model of make-to-stock production-inventory systems with backorders

We consider a class of single-stage, single-product Make-to-Stock production-inventory system (MTS system) with backorders. The system employs a continuous-review base-stock policy which strives to maintain a prescribed base-stock level of inventory. In a previous paper of Zhao and Melamed (Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability 8:191–222, 2006), the Infinitesimal Perturbation Analysis (IPA) derivatives of inventory and backorders time averages with respect to the base-stock level and a parameter of the production-rate process were computed in Stochastic Fluid Model (SFM) setting, where the demand stream at the inventory facility and its replenishment stream from the production facility are modeled by stochastic rate processes. The advantage of the SFM abstraction is that the aforementioned IPA derivatives can be shown to be unbiased. However, its disadvantages are twofold: (1) on the modeling side, the highly abstracted SFM formulation does not maintain the identity of transactions (individual demands, orders and replenishments) and has no notion of lead times, and (2) on the applications side, the aforementioned IPA derivatives are brittle in that they contain instantaneous rates at certain hitting times which are rarely known, and consequently, need to be estimated. In this paper, we remedy both disadvantages by using a discrete setting, where transaction identity is maintained, and order fulfillment from inventory following demand arrivals and inventory restocking following replenishment arrivals are modeled as discrete jumps in the inventory level. We then compute the aforementioned IPA derivatives with respect to the base-stock level and a parameter of the lead-time process in the discrete setting under any initial system state. The formulas derived are shown to be unbiased and directly computable from sample path observables, and their computation is both simple and computationally robust.     

An inventory model for slow moving items subject to obsolescence

In this paper, we consider a continuous review inventory system of a slow moving item for which the demand rate drops to a lower level at a known future time instance. The inventory system is controlled according to a one-for-one replenishment policy with a fixed lead time. Adapting to lower demand is achieved by changing the control policy in advance and letting the demand take away the excess stocks. We show that the timing of the control policy change primarily determines the tradeoff between backordering penalties and obsolescence costs. We propose an approximate solution for the optimal time to shift to the new control policy minimizing the expected total cost during the transient period. We find that the advance policy change results in significant cost savings and the approximation yields near optimal expected total costs.     

Optimal allocation of priority in a M/M/1 queue with two types of customers

We consider a M/M/1 queue with two types of customers.The server suffers some loss when a non-priority customer joins the queue if the size of the queue is greater than some predetermined level N. The problem is to decide which group receives priority in such a way as to minimize the expected cost per unit of time.We show first how to determine the optimal decision. Then we introduce approximations that enable us to show that the optimal decision has a simple behaviour as a function of N, the arrival and service parameters.     

Optimal policies for inventory systems with discretionary sales, random yield and lost sales

We determine replenishment and sales decisions jointly for an inventory system with random demand, lost sales and random yield. Demands in consecutive periods are independent random variables and their distributions are known. We incorporate discretionary sales, when inventory may be set aside to satisfy future demand even if some present demand may be lost. Our objective is to minimize the total discounted cost over the problem horizon by choosing an optimal replenishment and discretionary sales policy. We obtain the structure of the optimal replenishment and discretionary sales policy and show that the optimal policy for finite horizon problem converges to that of the infinite horizon problem. Moreover, we compare the optimal policy under random yield with that under certain yield, and show that the optimal order quantity （sales quantity） under random yield is more （less） than that under certain yield.     

Joint pricing and inventory replenishment decisions with returns and expediting

We study a single-item periodic-review model for the joint pricing and inventory replenishment problem with returns and expediting. Demand in consecutive periods are independent random variables and their distributions are price sensitive. At the end of each period, after the demand is realized, a buyer can return excess stocks to a supplier. Or, if there are stockouts, the buyer can place an expediting order at the supplier to reduce the amount of shortage. Unfilled demands are fully backlogged. We characterize the optimal dynamic policy that determines the pricing, inventory replenishment, and adjustment decisions in each period so that the total expected discounted profit is maximized. For a very general stochastic demand function, we can show that the optimal replenishment policy is a modified base-stock policy, the optimal pricing policy is a modified base-stock-list-price policy, and the optimal policy for inventory adjustment follows a dual-threshold policy. We further study the operational effect of returns and expediting. Analytical and numerical results demonstrate that returns and expediting lead to a significant profit increase in a number of situations, including limited supply capacity, sufficient flexibility of the expediting order, high demand uncertainty, and a price-sensitive market.     

马氏需求和随机供应下的订货和定价问题

考虑到零售商的固定订货费用以及在供应商供货不确定因素的影响下,研究了零售商的联合定价和订货问题.在一定的条件下,以极大化销售周期中的利润为准则,证明了零售商联合订货和定价最优策略的存在性,并且得到了最优策略具有$(s,S,p)$的结构.分析了供货的不确定性对最优策略的影响,特别是零售商所获得的最大利润与得到供货的概率成正比的关系,即每阶段得到货的概率越大,零售商获得的利润越多.     

Transient distributions of level dependent quasi-birth-death processes with linear transition rates

Many queueing systems such asM/M/s/K retrial queue with impatient customers, MAP/PH/1 retrial queue, retrial queue with two types of customers andMAP/M/∞ queue can be modeled by a level dependent quasi-birth-death (LDQBD) process with linear transition rates of the form λ_k = α+ βk at each levelk. The purpose of this paper is to propose an algorithm to find transient distributions for LDQBD processes with linear transition rates based on the adaptive uniformizaton technique introduced by van Moorsel and Sanders [11]. We apply the algorithm to some retrial queues and present numerical results.     

Fuzzy periodic review system with fuzzy random variable demand

In this paper, a periodic review inventory system has been analyzed in a mixed imprecise and uncertain environment where fuzziness and randomness appear simultaneously. A model has been developed with customer demand assumed to be a fuzzy random variable. The lead-time has been assumed to be a constant. The lead-time demand and the lead-time plus one period’s demand have also been assumed to be fuzzy random variables. A methodology has been developed to determine the optimal inventory level and the optimal period of review such that the total expected annual cost in the fuzzy sense is minimized. A numerical example has been presented to illustrate the model.     

The Inventory Lot-Sizing Problem with Continuous Time-Varying Demand and Shortages

In this study, we develop and analyse an optimal solution procedure for the inventory lot-sizing problem with a general class of time-varying demand functions. The objective of the procedure is to determine the optimal replenishment schedule over a finite planning horizon during which shortages are allowed and are completely backordered. We show that the procedure yields a unique optimal replenishment schedule for both increasing and decreasing demand patterns. We also discuss two particular cases of linear and non-linear demand trend models, and we illustrate the optimal solution procedure with four numerical examples.     

Integrating inventory control and a price change in the presence of reference price effects: a two-period model

Demand and procurement planning for consumer electronics products must cope with short life cycles, limited replenishment opportunities and a willingness to pay that is influenced by past prices and decreases over time. We therefore propose the use of an integrated pricing and inventory control model with a two-period linear demand model, in which demand also depends on the difference between a price-history-based reference price and the current price. For this model we prove that the optimal joint pricing/inventory policy for the replenishment opportunity after the first period is a base-stock list-price policy. That is, stock is either replenished up to a base-stock level and a list-price is charged, or it is not replenished and a discount is given that increases with the stock-level. Furthermore, we use real-world cell phone data to study the differences between an integrated policy and traditional sequential optimization, where prices are initially optimized based on the expected demand and ordering cost, and the resulting demand distribution is used to determine an optimal inventory policy. Finally, we discuss possible extensions of the model.