Probability maximization models for portfolio selection under ambiguity

This paper considers several probability maximization models for multi-scenario portfolio selection problems in the case that future returns in possible scenarios are multi-dimensional random variables. In order to consider occurrence probabilities and decision makers’ predictions with respect to all scenarios, a portfolio selection problem setting a weight with flexibility to each scenario is proposed. Furthermore, by introducing aspiration levels to occurrence probabilities or future target profit and maximizing the minimum aspiration level, a robust portfolio selection problem is considered. Since these problems are formulated as stochastic programming problems due to the inclusion of random variables, they are transformed into deterministic equivalent problems introducing chance constraints based on the stochastic programming approach. Then, using a relation between the variance and absolute deviation of random variables, our proposed models are transformed into linear programming problems and efficient solution methods are developed to obtain the global optimal solution. Furthermore, a numerical example of a portfolio selection problem is provided to compare our proposed models with the basic model.     

The simplified partial digest problem: Approximation and a graph-theoretic model

The goal of the simplified partial digest problem (SPDP) is motivated by the reconstruction of the linear structure of a DNA chain with respect to a given nucleotide pattern, based on the multiset of distances between the adjacent patterns (interpoint distances) and the multiset of distances between each pattern and the two unlabeled endpoints of the DNA chain (end distances). We consider optimization versions of the problem, called SPDP-Min and SPDP-Max. The aim of SPDP-Min (SPDP-Max) is to find a DNA linear structure with the same multiset of end distances and the minimum (maximum) number of incorrect (correct) interpoint distances. Results are presented on the worst-case efficiency of approximation algorithms for these problems. We suggest a graph-theoretic model for SPDP-Min and SPDP-Max, which can be used to reduce the search space for an optimal solution in either of these problems. We also present heuristic polynomial time algorithms based on this model. In computational experiments with randomly generated and real-life input data, our best algorithm delivered an optimal solution in 100% of the instances for a number of restriction sites not greater than 50.     

Bayesian Variable and Transformation Selection in Linear Regression

This article suggests a method for variable and transformation selection based on posterior probabilities. Our approach allows for consideration of all possible combinations of untransformed and transformed predictors along with transformed and untransformed versions of the response. To transform the predictors in the model, we use a change-point model, or “change-point transformation,” which can yield more interpretable models and transformations than the standard Box–Tidwell approach. We also address the problem of model uncertainty in the selection of models. By averaging over models, we account for the uncertainty inherent in inference based on a single model chosen from the set of models under consideration. We use a Markov chain Monte Carlo model composition (MC³) method which allows us to average over linear regression models when the space of models under consideration is very large. This considers the selection of variables and transformations at the same time. In an example, we show that model averaging improves predictive performance as compared with any single model that might reasonably be selected, both in terms of overall predictive score and of the coverage of prediction intervals. Software to apply the proposed methodology is available via StatLib.     

Discovering model structure for partially linear models

Partially linear models (PLMs) have been widely used in statistical modeling, where prior knowledge is often required on which variables have linear or nonlinear effects in the PLMs. In this paper, we propose a model-free structure selection method for the PLMs, which aims to discover the model structure in the PLMs through automatically identifying variables that have linear or nonlinear effects on the response. The proposed method is formulated in a framework of gradient learning, equipped with a flexible reproducing kernel Hilbert space. The resultant optimization task is solved by an efficient proximal gradient descent algorithm. More importantly, the asymptotic estimation and selection consistencies of the proposed method are established without specifying any explicit model assumption, which assure that the true model structure in the PLMs can be correctly identified with high probability. The effectiveness of the proposed method is also supported by a variety of simulated and real-life examples.

     

Sampling Schemes for Bayesian Variable Selection in Generalized Linear Models

Bayesian approaches to prediction and the assessment of predictive uncertainty in generalized linear models are often based on averaging predictions over different models, and this requires methods for accounting for model uncertainty. When there are linear dependencies among potential predictor variables in a generalized linear model, existing Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for sampling from the posterior distribution on the model and parameter space in Bayesian variable selection problems may not work well. This article describes a sampling algorithm based on the Swendsen-Wang algorithm for the Ising model, and which works well when the predictors are far from orthogonality. In problems of variable selection for generalized linear models we can index different models by a binary parameter vector, where each binary variable indicates whether or not a given predictor variable is included in the model. The posterior distribution on the model is a distribution on this collection of binary strings, and by thinking of this posterior distribution as a binary spatial field we apply a sampling scheme inspired by the Swendsen-Wang algorithm for the Ising model in order to sample from the model posterior distribution. The algorithm we describe extends a similar algorithm for variable selection problems in linear models. The benefits of the algorithm are demonstrated for both real and simulated data.     

Threshold variable selection of asymmetric stochastic volatility models

A threshold stochastic volatility (SV) model is used for capturing time-varying volatilities and nonlinearity. Two adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods of model selection are designed for the selection of threshold variables for this family of SV models. The first method is the direct estimation which approximates the model posterior probabilities of competing models. Using parallel MCMC sampling to estimate these probabilities, the best threshold variable is selected with the highest posterior model probability. The second method is to use the deviance information criterion to compare among these competing models and select the best one. Simulation results lead us to conclude that for large samples the posterior model probability approximation method can give an accurate approximation of the posterior probability in Bayesian model selection. The method delivers a powerful and sharp model selection tool. An empirical study of five Asian stock markets provides strong support for the threshold variable which is formulated as a weighted average of important variables.     

On the Solution to QBD Processes with Finite State Space

Abstract

In this article, we present a solution to a class of Quasi-Birth-and-Death processes with finite state space and show that the stationary probability vector has a matrix geometric representation. We show that such models have a level-dependent rate matrix. The corresponding rate matrix is given explicitly in terms of the model parameters. The resulting closed-form expression is proposed as a basis for efficient calculation of the stationary probabilities. The method proposed in this article can be applied to several queueing systems.     

Semiparametric estimation in regression with missing covariates using single-index models

We investigate semiparametric estimation of regression coefficients through generalized estimating equations with single-index models when some covariates are missing at random. Existing popular semiparametric estimators may run into difficulties when some selection probabilities are small or the dimension of the covariates is not low. We propose a new simple parameter estimator using a kernel-assisted estimator for the augmentation by a single-index model without using the inverse of selection probabilities. We show that under certain conditions the proposed estimator is as efficient as the existing methods based on standard kernel smoothing, which are often practically infeasible in the case of multiple covariates. A simulation study and a real data example are presented to illustrate the proposed method. The numerical results show that the proposed estimator avoids some numerical issues caused by estimated small selection probabilities that are needed in other estimators.

     

Genetic algorithms for portfolio selection problems with minimum transaction lots

Conventionally, portfolio selection problems are solved with quadratic or linear programming models. However, the solutions obtained by these methods are in real numbers and difficult to implement because each asset usually has its minimum transaction lot. Methods considering minimum transaction lots were developed based on some linear portfolio optimization models. However, no study has ever investigated the minimum transaction lot problem in portfolio optimization based on Markowitz’ model, which is probably the most well-known and widely used. Based on Markowitz’ model, this study presents three possible models for portfolio selection problems with minimum transaction lots, and devises corresponding genetic algorithms to obtain the solutions. The results of the empirical study show that the portfolios obtained using the proposed algorithms are very close to the efficient frontier, indicating that the proposed method can obtain near optimal and also practically feasible solutions to the portfolio selection problem in an acceptable short time. One model that is based on a fuzzy multi-objective decision-making approach is highly recommended because of its adaptability and simplicity.     

Adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian Variable Selection

We describe adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for sampling posterior distributions arising from Bayesian variable selection problems. Point-mass mixture priors are commonly used in Bayesian variable selection problems in regression. However, for generalized linear and nonlinear models where the conditional densities cannot be obtained directly, the resulting mixture posterior may be difficult to sample using standard MCMC methods due to multimodality. We introduce an adaptive MCMC scheme that automatically tunes the parameters of a family of mixture proposal distributions during simulation. The resulting chain adapts to sample efficiently from multimodal target distributions. For variable selection problems point-mass components are included in the mixture, and the associated weights adapt to approximate marginal posterior variable inclusion probabilities, while the remaining components approximate the posterior over nonzero values. The resulting sampler transitions efficiently between models, performing parameter estimation and variable selection simultaneously. Ergodicity and convergence are guaranteed by limiting the adaptation based on recent theoretical results. The algorithm is demonstrated on a logistic regression model, a sparse kernel regression, and a random field model from statistical biophysics; in each case the adaptive algorithm dramatically outperforms traditional MH algorithms. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Empirical likelihood for heteroscedastic partially linear models

We make empirical-likelihood-based inference for the parameters in heteroscedastic partially linear models. Unlike the existing empirical likelihood procedures for heteroscedastic partially linear models, the proposed empirical likelihood is constructed using components of a semiparametric efficient score. We show that it retains the double robustness feature of the semiparametric efficient estimator for the parameters and shares the desirable properties of the empirical likelihood for linear models. Compared with the normal approximation method and the existing empirical likelihood methods, the empirical likelihood method based on the semiparametric efficient score is more attractive not only theoretically but empirically. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed empirical likelihood provides smaller confidence regions than that based on semiparametric inefficient estimating equations subject to the same coverage probabilities. Hence, the proposed empirical likelihood is preferred to the normal approximation method as well as the empirical likelihood method based on semiparametric inefficient estimating equations, and it should be useful in practice.     

Estimating breast cancer risks using neural networks

Breast cancer is one of the most important medical problems. In this paper, we report the results of using neural networks for breast cancer diagnosis. The theoretical advantage is that posterior probabilities of malignancy can be estimated directly, and coupled with resampling techniques such as the bootstrap, distributions of the probabilities can also be obtained. These allow a researcher much more insight into the variability of estimated probabilities. Another contribution is that we present an integrative approach to building neural network models. The issues of model selection, feature selection, and function approximation are discussed in some detail and illustrated with the application to breast cancer diagnosis.     

Bayesian Variable Selection on Model Spaces Constrained by Heredity Conditions

This article investigates Bayesian variable selection when there is a hierarchical dependence structure on the inclusion of predictors in the model. In particular, we study the type of dependence found in polynomial response surfaces of orders two and higher, whose model spaces are required to satisfy weak or strong heredity conditions. These conditions restrict the inclusion of higher-order terms depending upon the inclusion of lower-order parent terms. We develop classes of priors on the model space, investigate their theoretical and finite sample properties, and provide a Metropolis–Hastings algorithm for searching the space of models. The tools proposed allow fast and thorough exploration of model spaces that account for hierarchical polynomial structure in the predictors and provide control of the inclusion of false positives in high posterior probability models.     

Classification of brain activation via spatial Bayesian variable selection in fMRI regression

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is the most popular technique in human brain mapping, with statistical parametric mapping (SPM) as a classical benchmark tool for detecting brain activity. Smith and Fahrmeir (J Am Stat Assoc 102(478):417–431, 2007) proposed a competing method based on a spatial Bayesian variable selection in voxelwise linear regressions, with an Ising prior for latent activation indicators. In this article, we alternatively link activation probabilities to two types of latent Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRFs) via a probit model. Statistical inference in resulting high-dimensional hierarchical models is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches, providing posterior estimates of activation probabilities and enhancing formation of activation clusters. Three algorithms are proposed depending on GMRF type and update scheme. An application to an active acoustic oddball experiment and a simulation study show a substantial increase in sensitivity compared to existing fMRI activation detection methods like classical SPM and the Ising model.     

Models of linear logic

We engage a study of nonmodal linear logic which takes times ⊗ and the linear conditional ⊸ to be the basic connectives instead of times and linear negation ()^⊥ as in Girard's approach. This difference enables us to obtain a very large subsystem of linear logic (called positive linear logic) without an involutionary negation (if the law of double negation is removed from linear logic in Girard's formulation, the resulting subsystem is extremely limited). Our approach enables us to obtain several natural models for various subsystems of linear logic, including a generic model for the so-called minimal linear logic. In particular, it is seen that these models arise spontaneously in the transition from set theory to multiset theory. We also construct a model of full (nonmodal) linear logic that is generic relative to any model of positive linear logic. However, the problem of constructing a generic model for positive linear logic remains open. Bibliography: 2 titles. Published inZapiski Nauchnykh Seminarov POMI, Vol. 220, 1995, pp. 23–35. Original     

Interaction Model and Model Selection for Function-on-Function Regression

Regression models with interaction effects have been widely used in multivariate analysis to improve model flexibility and prediction accuracy. In functional data analysis, however, due to the challenges of estimating three-dimensional coefficient functions, interaction effects have not been considered for function-on-function linear regression. In this article, we propose function-on-function regression models with interaction and quadratic effects. For a model with specified main and interaction effects, we propose an efficient estimation method that enjoys a minimum prediction error property and has good predictive performance in practice. Moreover, converting the estimation of three-dimensional coefficient functions of the interaction effects to the estimation of two- and one-dimensional functions separately, our method is computationally efficient. We also propose adaptive penalties to account for varying magnitudes and roughness levels of coefficient functions. In practice, the forms of the models are usually unspecified. We propose a stepwise procedure for model selection based on a predictive criterion. This method is implemented in our R package FRegSigComp. Supplemental materials are available online.     

Bayesian Variable Selection via Particle Stochastic Search

We focus on Bayesian variable selection in regression models. One challenge is to search the huge model space adequately, while identifying high posterior probability regions. In the past decades, the main focus has been on the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for these purposes. In this article, we propose a new computational approach based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), which we refer to as particle stochastic search (PSS). We illustrate PSS through applications to linear regression and probit models.     

A computationally efficient model selection in the generalized linear mixed model

This paper is concerned with model selection in spline-based generalized linear mixed model. Exploiting the fact that smoothing parameters can be expressed as the reciprocal ratio of the variances of random effect under the setting of estimation by regularization, we propose a computationally efficient model selection procedure. Applications to some real data sets reveal that the proposed method selects reasonable models and is very fast to implement.     

Conditional likelihood estimation and efficiency comparisons in proportional odds model with missing covariates

In this article, a conditional likelihood approach is developed for dealing with ordinal data with missing covariates in proportional odds model. Based on the validation data set, we propose the Breslow and Cain (Biometrika 75:11–20, 1988) type estimators using different estimates of the selection probabilities, which may be treated as nuisance parameters. Under the assumption that the observed covariates and surrogate variables are categorical, we present large sample theory for the proposed estimators and show that they are more efficient than the estimator using the true selection probabilities. Simulation results support the theoretical analysis. We also illustrate the approaches using data from a survey of cable TV satisfaction.     

Adjacency based method for generating maximal efficient faces in multiobjective linear programming

Multiobjective linear optimization problems (MOLPs) arise when several linear objective functions have to be optimized over a convex polyhedron. In this paper, we propose a new method for generating the entire efficient set for MOLPs in the outcome space. This method is based on the concept of adjacencies between efficient extreme points. It uses a local exploration approach to generate simultaneously efficient extreme points and maximal efficient faces. We therefore define an efficient face as the combination of adjacent efficient extreme points that define its border. We propose to use an iterative simplex pivoting algorithm to find adjacent efficient extreme points. Concurrently, maximal efficient faces are generated by testing relative interior points. The proposed method is constructive such that each extreme point, while searching for incident faces, can transmit some local informations to its adjacent efficient extreme points in order to complete the faces’ construction. The performance of our method is reported and the computational results based on randomly generated MOLPs are discussed.