Structuring an MCDA model using SSM: A case study in energy efficiency

This work presents the use of a problem structuring method, Soft Systems Methodology (SSM), to structure a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) model, aimed at appraising energy efficiency initiatives. SSM was useful to help defining clearly the decision problem context and the main actors involved, as well as to unveil the relevant objectives for each stakeholder. Keeney’s Value Focused Thinking approach was then used to refine and structure the list of objectives according to the perspective of the main evaluators identified. In addition to describing this particular case study, this paper aims at providing some general guidelines on how SSM may facilitate the emergence of objectives for MCDA models.     

The Use of Soft Systems Methodology in Practice

This paper reports the results of a survey intended to discover the extent to which Checkland's Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) is used in practice. Some 300 questionnaires were sent to people who had had some exposure to SSM and, surprisingly, nearly half were returned. The majority described in detail their uses of SSM and most felt that it had been successful. This paper describes the overall quantitative results from the survey as well as presenting a qualitative analysis of the experiences of using SSM.     

Planning for disaster: developing a multi-agency counselling service

Multi-agency planning is becoming increasingly important to organisations, especially those concerned with delivering services for the benefit of the community. This paper describes how a modified version of the methods from soft systems methodology (SSM), chosen through methodological reflections informed by critical systems thinking, was used to support the planning of a multi-agency counselling service that could be activated in the event of a disaster. Representatives of nineteen agencies were involved in this exercise, working together in six, one-day workshops. Feedback from participants, using four evaluation criteria (derived from the principles of SSM and the stated priorities of workshop participants), suggests that the methods of SSM, modified as described, show a great deal of promise as a support to multi-agency planning.     

Evaluating soft OR: some reflections on an apparently ‘unsuccessful’ implementation using a Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) based approach

This paper reflects on a case study in which a soft OR problem structuring approach, based on Soft Systems Methodology (SSM), was used to help in the design of an information system for health service users providing care in the community in a part of the South and West Health Region in the UK. The paper reflects on why an apparently ‘successful’ structuring led to an apparently ‘unsuccessful’ implementation. As part of this reflective process, the paper makes a contribution to the soft OR literature by reviewing some of the approaches taken in the literature to the evaluation of success of problem structuring using soft OR. This review reveals a lack of evaluative criteria, a lack of clarity over the identification of users, and a failure to differentiate criteria associated with ‘structuring’ and ‘implementation’ issues. An evaluative framework is proposed, which is applied retrospectively to the case study.     

Slack-adjusted DEA for time series analysis: Performance measurement of Japanese electric power generation industry in 1984–1993

Using a new slack-adjusted data envelopment analysis (SA-DEA) model which explicitly incorporates an influence of slacks into its efficiency measurement, this study discusses a use of various efficiencies and index measures for DEA dynamic analysis. An analytical formulation to determine the type of return to scale (RTS) is proposed for the new DEA model. This paper mathematically discusses when multiple solutions occur on RTS and how to deal with such a difficulty. As an important case study, this paper applies the proposed DEA approach to examine the performance of Japanese electric power generation companies from 1984 to 1993. Two policy implications are suggested for guiding the Japanese electric power industry.     

Relevance assumed: a case study of balanced scorecard development using system dynamics

The balanced scorecard (BSC) has become a popular concept for performance measurement. It focuses attention of management on only a few performance measures and bridges different functional areas as it includes both financial and non-financial measures. However, doubts frequently arise regarding the quality of the BSCs developed as well as the quality of the process in which this development takes place. This article describes a case study in which system dynamics (SD) modelling and simulation was used to overcome both kinds of problems. In a two-stage modelling process (qualitative causal loop diagramming followed by quantitative simulation), a BSC was developed for management of one organizational unit of a leading Dutch insurer. This research illustrates how, through their involvement in this development process, management came to understand that seemingly contradictory goals such as customer satisfaction, employee satisfaction and employee productivity were, in fact, better seen as mutually reinforcing. Also, analysis of the SD model showed how, contrary to ex ante management intuition, performance would first have to drop further before significant improvements could be realized. Finally, the quantitative modelling process also helped to evaluate several improvement initiatives that were under consideration at the time, proving some of them to have unclear benefits, others to be very promising indeed.     

Joint optimization of fleet size and maintenance capacity in a fork-join cyclical transportation system

This article presents an asset management-oriented multi-criteria methodology for the joint estimation of a mobile equipment fleet size, and the maintenance capacity to be allocated in a productive system. Using a business-centred life-cycle perspective, we propose an integrated analytical model and evaluate it using global cost rate, availability and throughput as performance indicators. The global cost components include: (i) opportunity costs associated with lost production, (ii) vehicle idle time costs, and (iii) maintenance resources idle time costs. This multi-criteria approach allows a balanced scorecard to be built that identifies the main trade-offs in the system. The methodology uses an improved closed network queueing model approach to describe the production and maintenance areas. We test the proposed methodology using an underground mining operation case study. The decision variables are the size of a load-haul-dump fleet and specialized maintenance crew levels. Our model achieves savings of 20.6% in global cost terms with respect to a benchmark case. We also optimize the system to achieve desired targets of vehicle availability and system throughput (based on system utilization). The results show increments of 7.1% in vehicle availability and 13.5% in system throughput with respect to baseline case. For the case studied, these criteria also have a maximum, which allows for further improvement if desired. The results also show the importance of using balanced performance measures in the decision process. A multi-criteria optimization was also performed, showing the Pareto front of considered indicators. We discuss the trade-offs among different criteria, and the implications in finding balanced solutions. The proposed analytical approach is easy to implement and requires low computational effort. It also allows for an easy re-evaluation of resources when the business cycle changes and relevant exogenous factors vary.     

Using SSM to structure the identification of inputs and outputs in DEA

This paper reports on an innovative combination of hard and soft methods—soft systems methodology (SSM) with data envelopment analysis (DEA). Problems in defining and agreeing appropriate inputs and outputs for DEA led to the use of SSM as a way or producing a comprehensive and systemic database of performance indicators. The contributions of the paper are: the use of SSM to improve DEA specifications; conceptual clarifications within both SSM and DEA; and an innovative example of multimethodology. These developments are illustrated through a study evaluating the performance of the basic research institutes of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.     

Calculation of output characteristics of a priority queue through a busy period analysis

In this paper, we analyze some output characteristics of a discrete-time two-class priority queue by means of probability generating functions. Therefore, we construct a Markov chain which – after analysis – provides a.o. the probability generating functions of the lengths of the busy periods of both classes. It is furthermore shown how performance measures, related to the output process, are calculated from these functions. The queueing model is kept fairly simple to explain the method of analysis of the busy periods and the output characteristics of priority queues as clearly as possible.     

Problem structuring in project management: an application of soft systems methodology (SSM)

Recent research suggests a major role for problem structuring methods (PSMs) in the field of project management, particularly at the front-end of projects, where objectives are often unclear and where different constituencies have conflicting aims. This paper presents a case example of soft systems methodology (SSM) at the front-end of a major project within Tesco Stores Ltd. A detailed account of the intervention is given, including the results achieved and a discussion of how the methodology was used for multiple purposes within the same intervention. Within the literature, there remains a lack of detailed examples from which people can learn more about the use of PSMs in project management. By providing a detailed example of SSM in action, this paper seeks to highlight the importance of problem structuring at the front-end of projects and the potential role an approach such as SSM can play at this crucial stage.     

Choice of weights in FMA estimators under general parametric models

The choice of weights in frequentist model average estimators is an important but difficult problem. Liang et al. (2011) suggested a criterion for the choice of weight under a general parametric framework which is termed as the generalized OPT (GOPT) criterion in the present paper. However, no properties and applications of the criterion have been studied. This paper is devoted to the further investigation of the GOPT criterion. We show that how to use this criterion for comparison of some existing weights such as the smoothed AIC-based and BIC-based weights and for the choice between model averaging and model selection. Its connection to the Mallows and ordinary OPT criteria is built. The asymptotic optimality on the criterion in the case of non-random weights is also obtained. Finite sample performance of the GOPT criterion is assessed by simulations. Application to the analysis of two real data sets is presented as well.     

Inference and risk measurement with the pari-mutuel model

We explore generalizations of the pari-mutuel model (PMM), a formalization of an intuitive way of assessing an upper probability from a precise one. We discuss a naive extension of the PMM considered in insurance, compare the PMM with a related model, the Total Variation Model, and generalize the natural extension of the PMM introduced by P. Walley and other pertained formulae. The results are subsequently given a risk measurement interpretation: in particular it is shown that a known risk measure, Tail Value at Risk (TVaR), is derived from the PMM, and a coherent risk measure more general than TVaR from its imprecise version. We analyze further the conditions for coherence of a related risk measure, Conditional Tail Expectation. Conditioning with the PMM is investigated too, computing its natural extension, characterising its dilation and studying the weaker concept of imprecision increase.     

合同能源管理中超额节能收益分配问题研究

在我国合同能源管理项目中,节能收益分享模式被广泛采用。通过构建“委托-代理”模型深入分析节能收益分享模式下的超额节能收益分配问题。研究发现:(1)无论是否出现超额节能收益,合同中用能方的节能收益分享比例不得超过50%;(2)在引入节能服务公司的努力成本系数且不考虑节能改造双方风险偏好的情况下(风险中性),当努力成本系数在特定的取值范围内,优化后的超额节能收益分配方式对节能服务公司更具激励作用;(3)考虑节能服务公司为风险规避时,其最优期望节能收益不但受其努力成本系数的影响,还受其风险规避程度以及节能收益期望方差的影响。     

Resource Inputs and Performance Outputs in Social Security Offices

This paper describes a model of a Social Security office developed by the Operational Research Service of the DHSS. The model, based mainly on queueing theory, relates staffing levels, workloads, and productivity to performance measures based on customer delays. The paper describes the hypothesis underlying the model, the data requirements, technical details, and model calibration. Illustrative outputs of the model are presented and some uses of the model are briefly described.     

Rapid improvement of stochastic networks using two-moment approximations

This paper investigates a method for rapidly improving the performance of stochastic networks. The method uses queueing network techniques based on parametric decomposition and two-moment approximations. It employs some recently devised developments to the approximations, especially in the context of closed queueing networks with synchronization stations. We describe these developments and explain how the method uses them. It appears to offer a substantial advantage in speed, and reduces the dependence on repetitive simulation runs for identifying opportunities to improve network performance. We present an example from airfield operations, in which the method evaluates the tradeoffs with respect to several strategies for enhancing airfield performance, such as the introduction of concurrent operations, the reduction of service variability, and the increase in airfield capacity.     

Performance metrics in supply chain management

This survey paper starts with a critical analysis of various performance metrics for supply chain management (SCM), used by a specific manufacturing company. Then it summarizes how economic theory treats multiple performance metrics. Actually, the paper proposes to deal with multiple metrics in SCM via the balanced scorecard — which measures customers, internal processes, innovations, and finance. To forecast how the values of these metrics will change — once a supply chain is redesigned — simulation may be used. This paper distinguishes four simulation types for SCM: (i) spreadsheet simulation, (ii) system dynamics, (iii) discrete-event simulation, and (iv) business games. These simulation types may explain the bullwhip effect, predict fill rate values, and educate and train users. Validation of simulation models requires sensitivity analysis; a statistical methodology is proposed. The paper concludes with suggestions for a possible research agenda in SCM. A list with 50 references for further study is included.     

Enhanced performance measurement using OR: a case study

The case study described in this paper aims to illustrate how qualitative and quantitative system dynamics modelling and multicriteria analysis can be used in an integrated way to enhance the process of performance measurement and management in the radiotherapy department of a major UK cancer treatment centre. The complexity of the radiotherapy process and its significance for patients present particular challenges for performance measurement and management. The paper discusses the benefits arising and the practical difficulties faced in the study.     

Neighborhood analysis: a case study on curriculum-based course timetabling

In this paper, we present an in-depth analysis of neighborhood relations for local search algorithms. Using a curriculum-based course timetabling problem as a case study, we investigate the search capability of four neighborhoods based on three evaluation criteria: percentage of improving neighbors, improvement strength and search steps. This analysis shows clear correlations of the search performance of a neighborhood with these criteria and provides useful insights on the very nature of the neighborhood. This study helps understand why a neighborhood performs better than another one and why and how some neighborhoods can be favorably combined to increase their search power. This study reduces the existing gap between reporting experimental assessments of local search-based algorithms and understanding their behaviors.     

Modelling a multi-objective allocation problem in a government sponsored entrepreneur development programme

Typically the vendor allocation problem for a commercial company requires the buyer to allocate business between the selected vendor suppliers to meet its needs at minimum cost, taking account of its quality and delivery performance requirements. However in a government sponsored entrepreneur development programme, the allocation of business cannot only be made dependent on criteria that reflect the current ability of the vendor nor solely on criteria fulfilling the current needs of the buyer. It must also consider how it may aid the vendors to improve their business performance in the future and also on how it affects the development of that indigenous industry sector. Furthermore, conditions change from one year to the next so the problem is dynamic over time.This paper describes how a combination of Goal Programming model (GP) with pre-emptive priority ranking of goal constraints with a linear programming model facilitates allocation of businesses to entrepreneurs. In particular, the subject used in this paper is a Malaysia Government sponsored entrepreneur development programme for furniture maker, which administered by a commercial company. An innovative aspect of the work is the use of GP as a modelling rather than a solution technique. It is used to convert the conflicting multi-objectives that were expressed only in general policy terms to operational terms on which business could be allocated. The paper shows how it can be used to try to understand, and then formally model how managers use their judgement and experience in a complex multi-criteria situation. The paper goes on to show that using the formal model leads to more consistency in decision-making and an improvement in the achievement of the objectives. This is important as several different managers are having to make independent decisions on subsets of the vendors.     

A non-radial DEA approach to measuring environmental performance

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) has gained great popularity in environmental performance measurement because it can provide a synthetic standardized environmental performance index when pollutants are suitably incorporated into the traditional DEA framework. Past studies about the application of DEA to environmental performance measurement often follow the concept of radial efficiency measures. In this paper, we present a non-radial DEA approach to measuring environmental performance, which consists of a non-radial DEA-based model for multilateral environmental performance comparisons and a non-radial Malmquist environmental performance index for modeling the change of environmental performance over time. A case study of OECD countries using the proposed non-radial DEA approach is also presented. It is found that the environmental performance of OECD countries as a whole has been improved from 1995 to 1997.