O.R. and the Systems Movement: Mappings and Conflicts

The ‘crisis’ debate in O.R. expresses concern at the divergence between textbook O.R. and what practitioners actually do. The debate is examined by comparing O.R., systems analysis and systems engineering. They are all wedded to logic in situations in which logic may not be paramount. The science in O.R. applies only to aggregate results, but the practitioner must deal with a specific situation. The tradition of systems thinking which emerged from organismic biology is described. It leads to a way out of the O.R. ‘crisis’, by providing a formal structuring of a paradigm of learning rather than optimization. O.R. can aspire to match natural science, and pass the problems by; or it can close the textbook/practitioner gap by changing its concept of ‘being scientific’.     

From Optimizing to Learning: A Development of Systems Thinking for the 1990s

In any subject concerned with rational intervention in human affairs, theory must lead to practice; but practice is the source of theory: neither theory nor practice is prime. We can examine this ‘groundless’ relation by asking what intellectual framework F is applied in what methodology M to what area of application A? If we do this for O.R., systems analysis, systems engineering etc., we see that F and M have changed dramatically between the 1950s and the 1980s, yielding the ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ traditions of systems thinking. The ‘hard’ tradition, based on goal seeking, is examined in the work of Simon and contrasted with the ‘soft’ tradition, based on learning, as exemplified in the work of Vickers and the development of soft systems methodology. The two are complementary, but the relation between them is that the ‘hard’ is a special case of ‘soft’ systems thinking. This analysis makes sense of the recent history of management science and helps to prepare us for the 1990s.     

Of Kings and Men,Especially O.R. Men: A Methodological Tale

Operational Research is defined as the application of the methods of science to problems arising in the direction and management of systems of men, machines, materials and money in industry, business, government and defence. This article argues, by way of a story set in ancient Greece, that if Operational Research is to provide practical and helpful advice in these areas, then such a definition is grossly misleading by its failure to spell out the basic necessity of having to apply the methods of technology to these problems. In particular this paper deals with the primary need for Operational Researchers to draw upon the heuristic principles governing technological innovation and creativity. It is further argued that such heuristic activity has an important bearing on just what meaning can be attached to the phrase ‘the application of the methods of science’ referred to in the definition of O.R.     

The Logic of Analogy

How should a scientist argue when the data are insufficient to allow him to reason by classical or statistical models? After all, in most real world situations - in business or in war - that is the unhappy norm. In such cases the ordinary man instinctively argues by analogy, as Leibniz long ago showed; indeed if time presses, there is no alternative. The trouble, however, is that if we then include such arguments in our scientific reasoning, then, as we all know, this can lead to false conclusions. To escape from this dilemma, is there any alternative logical basis from which we can start our reasoning? What is proposed here is that instead of the well tried three valued logic of true, false or probable, we should adopt the three valued logic of true, false or possible. A rational system for analogue arguments can then be developed by these means, and with it the advantages brought by the use of symbols and so on. Such a method, however, includes many necessary changes as to how to structure our problems and how to apply new criteria; and it is some of these changes that are outlined in this note. For instance, it outlines the meaning of ‘causal relationships’ in analogue arguments, as well as how to define ‘rational choice’ in terms of analogue propositions. The advantage throughout is that this allows us to argue with less rather than more data.     

Content essentialism

The paper offers some preliminary and rather unsystematic reflections about the question: Do Beliefs Have Their Contents Essentially? The question looks like it ought to be important, yet it is rarely discussed. Maybe that’s because content essentialism, i.e., the view that beliefs do have their contents essentially, is simply too obviously and trivially true to deserve much discussion. I sketch a common-sense argument that might be taken to show that content essentialism is indeed utterly obvious and/or trivial. Somewhat against this, I then point out that a “sexy” conclusion that is sometimes drawn from Putnam-Burge-style externalist arguments, namely that our mental states are not in our heads, presupposes content essentialism — which suggests that the view is not entirely trivial. Moreover, it seems intuitively that physicalists should reject the view: If beliefs are physical states, how could they have their propositional contents essentially? I distinguish three readings of the title question. Content essentialism does seem fairly obvious on the first two, but not so on the third. I argue that the common-sense argument mentioned earlier presupposes one of the first two readings but fails to apply to the third, on which ‘belief’ refers to belief-state tokens. That’s because ordinary belief individuation is silent about belief-state tokens. Token physicalists, I suggest, should indeed reject content essentialism about belief-state tokens. What about token dualists? One might think they ought to embrace content essentialism about belief-state tokens. I end with puzzling why this should be so.     

On the nature of OR: taking stock

This paper argues that OR, having reached its maturity, must now play to its strengths. In strategic terms this means competing in those areas where OR's core competences can be brought to bear. Using a competence model it is suggested that OR's core products are (i) the development and implementation of the quantitative, algorithmic ‘smart bits’ and (ii) the ‘helpful ways’ of managing intervention processes. These core products are supported and sustained by three core competences labelled process, analytic, and context. Individuals and small groups of practitioners develop ‘strands of practice’ and larger groups ‘webs of practice’ on the basis of their core competences. It is argued that this is giving rise to the emergence of three archetypes of OR service, namely the OR technical consultancy, the OR process consultancy, and the full service OR consultancy. Both the technical and process consulting are built around ‘strands of practice’ of individuals and find their natural home in small service providers. The full service OR consulting practice, in the past located in internal OR groups, will in the future be located within the large management consultancies, which are capable of managing ‘webs of practice’. The implications for the worlds of OR practice and academia are examined.     

On a problem of Čech

Assuming CH (but we have stronger results) we partially solve a problem posed by E. ?ech. Kuratowski gave the axioms which a topological closure operator, ?, must satisfy. If we do not ask that ? be idempotent (i.e. that for all $\text{X,(?(X))=?(X)}$, then ? is known as a closure operator. E. ?ech asked if there is a nontrivial closure operator which is onto, that is, for which in some sense every subset of our ‘space’ is ‘closed’. We build such functions. The problem is also well motivated when presented in purely set theoretic terms.     

Post‐financial meltdown: What do the services industries need from us now?

In 2008 the global economy was rocked by a crisis that began on Wall Street, but quickly spread to Main Street U.S.A., and then to side streets around the world. Statisticians working in the service sector are not immune, with many concerned about losing their jobs. Given this dramatic course of events, how should statisticians respond? What, if anything, can we do to help our struggling organizations survive this recession, in order to prosper in the future? This expository article describes some approaches that we feel can help service industries deal with aftereffects of the financial meltdown. Based on an understanding of current needs of the service industries, we emphasize three approaches in particular: a greater emphasis on statistical engineering relative to statistical science, ‘embedding’ statistical methods and principles into key business processes, and the reinvigoration of Lean Six Sigma to drive immediate, tangible business results. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Art of Course Planning: Soft O.R. in Action

This article is a case study described from two viewpoints: that of an analyst and that of a ‘decision-maker’. It describes the use of two ‘soft O.R.’ methods in helping the members of a university O.R. group to plan revisions to a postgraduate Diploma course, resulting in the implementation of an improved course. One author conducted the exercise while the other was a member of the client group. Given that case studies are usually written by the analyst alone, it is hoped that a client's eye-view will be useful as feedback for practitioners and can also introduce some of the concepts and terminology of soft O.R. to those engaged in more mathematical O.R. activities.     

Efficient frontier cutoff policies in credit portfolios

Historically, account acquisition in scored retail credit and loan portfolios has focused on risk management in the sense of minimizing default losses. We believe that acquisition policies should focus on a broader set of business measures that explicitly recognize tradeoffs between conflicting objectives of losses, volume and profit. Typical business challenges are: ‘How do I maximize portfolio profit while keeping acceptance rate (volume, size) at acceptable levels?’ ‘How do I maximize profit without incurring default losses above a given level?’ ‘How do I minimize the risk of large loss exposures for a given market share?’ In this paper we are not concerned with which combination of objectives are appropriate, but rather focus on the cutoff policies that allow us to capture a number of different portfolio objectives. When there are conflicting objectives we show that optimal policies yield meaningful tradeoffs and efficient frontiers and that optimal shadow prices allow us to develop risk-adjusted tradeoffs between profit and market share. Some of the graphical solutions that we obtain are simple to derive and easy to understand without explicit mathematical formulations but even simple constraints may require formal use of non-linear programming techniques. We concentrate on models and insights that yield decision strategies and cutoff policies rather than the techniques for developing good predictors.     

Systems Analysis and the Computer

The words ‘systems analysis’ are used in at least two senses in the literature. Whilst the general nature of the topic is well understood in the O.R. community, the nature of the term as used by computer scientists is less familiar. In this paper, the nature of systems analysis as it relates to computer-based systems is examined from the point of view that the computer system is an automaton embedded in a human system, and some facets of this are explored. It is concluded that O.R. analysts and computer analysts have things to learn from each other and that this ought to be reflected in their education. The important role played by change in the design of systems is also highlighted, and it is concluded that, whilst the application of techniques developed in the ‘artificial intelligence’ field have considerable relevance to constructing automata able to adapt to change in the environment, study of the human factors affecting the overall systems within which the automata are embedded has an even more important role.     

Connecting Mathematics and Science in Undergraduate Teacher Education Programs: Faculty Voices from the Maryland Collaborative for Teacher Preparation

The study reported in this paper investigated perceptions concerning connections between mathematics and science held by university/college instructors who participated in the Maryland Collaborative for Teacher Preparation (MCTP), an NSF-funded program aimed at developing special middle-level mathematics and science teachers. Specifically, we asked (a) “What are the perceptions of MCTP instructors about the ‘other’ discipline?” (b) “What are the perceptions of MCTP instructors about the connections between mathematics and science?” and (c) “What are some barriers perceived by MCTP instructors in implementing mathematics and science courses that emphasize connections?” The findings suggest that the benefits of emphasizing mathematics and science connections perceived by MCTP instructors were similar to the benefits reported by school teachers. The barriers reported were also similar. The participation in the project appeared to have encouraged MCTP instructors to grapple with some fundamental questions, like “What should be the nature of mathematics and science connections?” and “What is the nature of mathematics/science in relationship to the other discipline?”     

Voluntary Operational Research

Operational Research has traditionally been carried out in organizations which are able and willing to pay for it; this tends to restrict it to the larger industrial, commercial or governmental bodies. In this paper we reflect on an O.R. project done on behalf of a group of charities, to whom, as with most voluntary organizations, the skills of operational researchers are not usually available.It seems likely that voluntary organizations will have an increasing role as leisure time increases, and in any case the widening scope and complex context of their activities means that they could benefit from the kind of help that operational researchers can give. At the same time, O.R. workers who care about a particular voluntary organization may want to offer their skills to it. However, the skills of operational researchers are not as obviously relevant to voluntary organizations as is the professional expertise of lawyers and accountants. Undertaking O.R. projects as a voluntary helper rather than as a paid consultant, and in voluntary organizations rather than the more usual clients for O.R., has significant implications for the approach and methods used.We discuss these issues in the light of our recent experiences of carrying out ‘voluntary Operational Research’.     

Better Than Survival: The Need for Research to Strengthen Planning in Industry and the Public Service

Editor's NoteThis is an invited contribution in our occasional series O.R. Reflections, in which are presented essentially personal views of O.R., based on contributors' own experience. What follows is a slightly revised version of the author's inaugural lecture as Professor of Systems and Operational Research at the University of Warwick on 10th May 1982.The author draws on his experience in industry and in an international research institute (IIASA) o restate the importance of strategic planning if organisations are to do better than mere survival. He argues the need for problem-oriented, inter-disciplinary research to support such activity and suggests that such research, directed towards investment and strategic policy, has a potential value which is quite out of proportion to the money currently invested in it.     

A new version of a theorem of Minh–Räbiger–Schnaubelt regarding nonautonomous evolution equations

We develop a new version of a known theorem obtained by Van Minh, Räbiger, Schnaubelt in [N. Van Minh, F. Räbiger and R. Schnaubelt, Exponential stability, exponential expansiveness and exponential dichotomy of evolution equations on the half line, Integral Equ. Oper. Theory 32 (1998) pp. 332–353]. We rely completely on the classical ‘test functions’ method designed by Perron in 1930. The advantage of such a version is that is more readable since the classical method of Perron have been known for decades and that we do not involve a sophisticated mathematical machinery. Our approach is in contrast with the general philosophy of ‘autonomization’ the nonautonomous system, since we do not require to attach the evolution semigroup. Also we point out a discrete-time version of our approach extending some known results given by Li and Henry.     

Refocusing upstream: Operational Research for population health

This paper examines the potential for the application of OR methods to ‘upstream’ problems in health sector planning. These address the underlying causes of ill health, and stand in contrast to ‘downstream’ health service planning which addresses the consequences of ill health. The paper reviews the emergence, globally and locally, of recognition of the importance of upstream planning and policy formation for the health sectors of both developed and developing countries. It presents examples of the use of OR techniques in upstream health planning, with particular illustrations taken from the area of health impact assessment. It argues for a fuller appreciation of the potential contribution of OR in this and in other areas of upstream health sector planning.     

To charge or not to charge?

Discussions on the success or failure of OR practice tend to focus on specific case studies which often highlight major dilemmas that face OR professionals: Model robustness, simplicity vs complexity, optimising vs satisficing, conflict between criteria, who is the ‘client’?, and so on. But above all, the following issues predominate: Should OR be concerned with tactical or strategic problems? Where should it be placed in the organisational structure and who should it report to? These issues inevitably raise the questions of accountability, coupled with that of charging for OR services. It is this issue in particular, whether to charge or not to charge for OR services, that the paper seeks to explore.     

Exploring the dynamics of journal citations: Modelling with s-curves

This paper reports on an exploratory analysis of the behaviour of citations for management science papers over a 14-year period. Citations often display s-curve type behaviour: beginning slowly, rising in response to previous citations, and then declining as the material becomes obsolete. Within the context of citation research such functions are known as obsolescence functions. The paper addresses three specific questions: (i) can collections of papers from the same journal all be modelled using the same obsolescence function? (ii) Can we identify specific patterns of behaviour such as ‘sleeping beauties’ or ‘shooting stars’? (iii) Can we predict the number of future citations from the pattern of behaviour in the first few years? Over 600 papers published in six leading management science journals are analysed using a variety of s-curves.     

A Materialist Analysis of Operational Research

Accounts of the development and practice of operational research have commonly stressed its timeless universality as a method for rational decision-making. In this paper operational research is seen as one element in the managerial response to problems of complexity and uncertainty within an economic system characterised by institutionalised conflict. Both the material and ideological functions of ‘management science’ in private and public enterprise are analysed, and characteristics are identified of an emergent ‘workers science’. Editor's Note The title of this paper contrasts the materialistic approach with the idealistic approach, and the content of the paper disowns the latter. Evidently there are alternative but overtly political terms for both adjectives.It would be stupid if O.R. were to ignore the political facts of life which play so great a part in the decisions and policies with which O.R. is concerned. But, as the authors acknowledge, other interpretations of history than those presented here are at least possible.Contributions offering alternative schemata, or based on other paradigms, are invited and will be given careful consideration.