图形化模型在亲子鉴定中的应用

利用图形化模型理论,以及DNA数据,研究了一个在法庭上颇有争议的亲子鉴定问题.通过案例中的家谱图,建立Bayesian网络,根据遗传学的孟德尔定律,借助于Hug in软件,计算出网络中各结点的概率.在数学上,给出了一个可供法庭参考的合理推断.     

DNA序列的分类模型

本文针对 DNA序列分类这个实际问题 ,提出了相应的数学模型 .为了很好的体现 DNA序列的局部性和全局性的特征 ,我们给出了衡量分类方法优劣的标准 ,即在满足一定限制条件的情况下 ,是否能充分反映序列的各方面特性 .依据我们提出的判别标准 ,单一标准的分类是无法满足要求的 .我们的方法是侧重点不同的三种方法的综合集成 .这三种方法分别体现了序列中元素出现的概率 ,序列中元素出现的周期性 ,序列所带有的信息含量 .利用这个方法 ,完成了对未知类型的人工序列及自然序列的分类工作 .最后 ,对分类模型的优缺点进行了分析 ,并就模型的推广作了讨论     

多类型复发事件数据下一类Box-Cox转移模型

在本文中,我们针对多类型的复发事件数据提出了一类Box-Cox转移模型,它包含了比例模型作为其特殊情况.该模型在刻画协变量对于计数过程的均值函数效应时具有很大的灵活性.对于模型的推断问题,我们基于估计方程方法给出了未知参数的估计,并研究了该估计的大样本性质.最后,我们提出了一种基于残差的模型检验方法.     

模糊概率神经网络水质评价模型及其应用

鉴于水质类型和分级标准存在模糊性,将模糊数学中的相对隶属度理论和概率神经网络和相结合,构建了模糊概率神经网络水质评价模型(FPNN).阐明了该模型的构建方法,提出了基于指标相对隶属度矩阵插值构建学习样本的方法,并将该模型应用于实际水质评价.通过与综合评判法、属性识别法和BP网络法的比较,验证了该模型操作简便,评价结果客观可靠.     

基于贝叶斯统计方法的两总体基因表达数据分类

在疾病的诊断过程中,对疾病的精确分类是提高诊断准确率和疾病治愈率至 关重要的一个环节,DNA芯片技术的出现使得我们从微观的层次获得与疾病分类及诊断 密切相关的基因功能信息．但是DNA芯片技术得到的基因的表达模式数据具有多变量小 样本特点,使得分类过程极不稳定,因此我们首先筛选出表达模式发生显著性变化的基因 作为特征基因集合以减少变量个数,然后再根据此特征基因集合建立分类器对样本进行分 类．本文运用似然比检验筛选出特征基因,然后基于贝叶斯方法建立了统计分类模型,并 应用马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)抽样方法计算样本归类后验概率．最后我们将此模型 应用到两组真实的DNA芯片数据上,并将样本成功分类．     

基于SMA模型的扩张型心肌病影响基因分析

医学研究表明约30%的扩张型心肌病与遗传因素有关,因此从基因水平寻找其病因及发病机制越来越引起国内外学者的重视.采用针对超高维数据的序贯模型平均(SMA)方法对扩张型心肌病转基因小鼠微阵列数据建立回归模型,确定哪些基因对小鼠中G蛋白偶联受体的过表达有影响从而导致小鼠的心肌病,结果发现Msa.2877.0,Msa.741.0,Msa.768.0和Msa.2604.0四个基因是影响小鼠扩张型心肌病的主要基因,且SMA对该数据的拟合和预测都明显优于以往常用的SIS,L2boost及Lasso等变量选择方法.研究结果对进一步了解人类心脏病的发病机理有一定的借鉴意义.     

广义变系数模型的Bayesian B样条估计

提出了广义变系数模型函数系数的一种新的估计方法．我们用B样条函数逼近函数系数,不具体选择节点的个数,而是节点个数取均匀的无信息先验,样条函数系数取正态先验,用Bayesian模型平均的方法估计各个函数系数．这种估计方法一个主要特点是允许各个函数系数所需节点个数的后验分布不同,因此允许不同函数系数使用不同的光滑参数．另外,本文还给出了Bayesian B样条估计的计算方法,并通过模拟例子,说明广义变系数模型的函数系数可以由Bayesian B样条估计方法得到很好的估计．     

多种群协同进化策略下的虚拟企业基因重组

随着基因学说研究的深入,运用DNA理论来研究企业的可持续发展问题正逐渐成为管理学的热点.基于现有的企业DNA理论,本文首先从概念、结构、基因组要素识别及基因重组原理等方面对虚拟企业组织DNA的基本理论问题进行了系统研究.其次,在此基础上提出了采用多种群协同进化策略,通过生物学中的基因重组技术来实现虚拟企业可持续发展的思路.最后,研究了多种群协同进化策略对虚拟企业基因重组的影响,并建立了相应的基因重组模型.该研究不仅揭示出不同的进化策略,基因重组的效率效果不同;而且还充分论证了在多种群协同进化策略下,借助于基因重组技术,通过持续提高"基因"能力要素的竞争能力,能够有效保持虚拟企业在"市场生态"中的知识地位,从而实现可持续发展.     

基于结构矩阵的DNA序列的相似性模型

通过一维映射把DNA序列转化为时间序列,即把数字1,2,3,4分别分配给组成DNA序列的核苷酸A,T,G,C,用时间序列的结构矩阵来描述DNA序列的结构特征,并根据结构矩阵的一些性质定义了结构矩阵的相似性度量,进而利用结构矩阵之间的相似性度量构建了比较DNA序列的相似性模型,以9个不同物种的β-球蛋白基因的第一个外显子(表1)为例验证了该模型的适用性.并得到了较好得结果.     

GARCH模型的贝叶斯局部影响分析及其应用

广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)模型能够很好地刻画金融资产收益二阶矩的相依关系,因此在金融时间序列中受到了广泛的应用。在GARCH模型的框架下,本文利用贝叶斯局部影响分析来评价先验、个体观测和样本分布的微小扰动的影响,利用扰动模型来刻画不同类型的扰动形式。我们构建了扰动模型的贝叶斯扰动形式,计算其几何量来表征扰动模型的内部结构。基于几个目标函数,本文利用几个不同的局部影响测量来量化不同扰动的程度。数值模拟研究验证了所提方法的有限样本表现。对纽约证券交易所综合指数(NYSE)和标准普尔500指数的GARCH建模说明了所提方法在实例研究中的有效性。     

Preference programming for robust portfolio modeling and project selection

In decision analysis, difficulties of obtaining complete information about model parameters make it advisable to seek robust solutions that perform reasonably well across the full range of feasible parameter values. In this paper, we develop the Robust Portfolio Modeling (RPM) methodology which extends Preference Programming methods into portfolio problems where a subset of project proposals are funded in view of multiple evaluation criteria. We also develop an algorithm for computing all non-dominated portfolios, subject to incomplete information about criterion weights and project-specific performance levels. Based on these portfolios, we propose a project-level index to convey (i) which projects are robust choices (in the sense that they would be recommended even if further information were to be obtained) and (ii) how continued activities in preference elicitation should be focused. The RPM methodology is illustrated with an application using real data on road pavement projects.     

Management and analysis of DNA microarray data by using weighted trees

We investigate discrete structures and combinatoric modeling of weighted prefix trees for managing and analyzing DNA microarray data. We describe the algorithms to construct the weighted trees for these data. Using these weighted trees with our algorithms, we propose methods to compute the appearance probability of a DNA microarray, to compare the informational distances in the expression of genes between the DNA microarrays, to search the characteristic microarrays and the group of candidate genes suggestive of a pathology.     

A General Class of Change Point and Change Curve Modeling for Life Time Data

Change point hazard rate models arise in many life time data analysis, for example, in studying times until the undesirable side effects occur in clinical trials. In this paper we propose a general class of change point hazard model for survival data. This class includes and extends different types of change point models for survival data, e.g. cure rate model and lag model. Most classical approach develops estimates of model parameters, with particular interest in change point parameter and often the whole hazard function, but exclusively in terms of asymptotic properties. We propose a Bayesian approach, avoiding asymptotics and provide inference conditional upon the observed data. The proposed Bayesian models are fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We illustrate our proposed methodology with an application to modeling life times of the printed circuit board.     

Quadrature Methods for Bayesian Optimal Design of Experiments With Nonnormal Prior Distributions

Many optimal experimental designs depend on one or more unknown model parameters. In such cases, it is common to use Bayesian optimal design procedures to seek designs that perform well over an entire prior distribution of the unknown model parameter(s). Generally, Bayesian optimal design procedures are viewed as computationally intensive. This is because they require numerical integration techniques to approximate the Bayesian optimality criterion at hand. The most common numerical integration technique involves pseudo Monte Carlo draws from the prior distribution(s). For a good approximation of the Bayesian optimality criterion, a large number of pseudo Monte Carlo draws is required. This results in long computation times. As an alternative to the pseudo Monte Carlo approach, we propose using computationally efficient Gaussian quadrature techniques. Since, for normal prior distributions, suitable quadrature techniques have already been used in the context of optimal experimental design, we focus on quadrature techniques for nonnormal prior distributions. Such prior distributions are appropriate for variance components, correlation coefficients, and any other parameters that are strictly positive or have upper and lower bounds. In this article, we demonstrate the added value of the quadrature techniques we advocate by means of the Bayesian D-optimality criterion in the context of split-plot experiments, but we want to stress that the techniques can be applied to other optimality criteria and other types of experimental designs as well. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

删失分位数回归模型基于扩展兴趣信息准则的平均估计

本文结合分位数回归技术,基于删失回归模型,把Claeskens和Hjort的传统兴趣信息准侧(focused information criterion,FIC)扩展到兴趣向量的情形,提出扩展的兴趣信息准则(extended focused information criterion,E-FIC),有效解决了同时针对多个兴趣参数的平均估计问题,并且对删失响应变量的不同水平分位数进行建模,以全面反映响应变量分布特征,有效克服异常值和厚尾模型误差的影响.基于扩展的兴趣信息准则给出参数的平均估计方法,证明估计的渐近性质.通过Monte Carlo随机模拟试验比较所提估计方法和最小二乘方法在有限样本量下的表现,用所提方法对原发性胆汁性肝硬化数据集进行数据分析.     

Portfolio value at risk based on independent component analysis

Risk management technology applied to high-dimensional portfolios needs simple and fast methods for calculation of value at risk (VaR). The multivariate normal framework provides a simple off-the-shelf methodology but lacks the heavy-tailed distributional properties that are observed in data. A principle component-based method (tied closely to the elliptical structure of the distribution) is therefore expected to be unsatisfactory. Here, we propose and analyze a technology that is based on independent component analysis (ICA). We study the proposed ICVaR methodology in an extensive simulation study and apply it to a high-dimensional portfolio situation. Our analysis yields very accurate VaRs.     

Nonlinear regression modeling and detecting change points via the relevance vector machine

We consider the problem of constructing nonlinear regression models in the case that the structure of data has discontinuities at some unknown points. We propose two-stage procedure in which the change points are detected by relevance vector machine at the first stage, and the smooth curve are effectively estimated along with the technique of regularization method at the second. In order to select tuning parameters in the regularization method, we derive a model selection and evaluation criterion from information-theoretic viewpoints. Simulation results and real data analyses demonstrate that our methodology performs well in various situations.     

Analyzing right-censored length-biased data with additive hazards model

Length-biased data are often encountered in observational studies, when the survival times are left-truncated and right-censored and the truncation times follow a uniform distribution. In this article, we propose to analyze such data with the additive hazards model, which specifies that the hazard function is the sum of an arbitrary baseline hazard function and a regression function of covariates. We develop estimating equation approaches to estimate the regression parameters. The resultant estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Some simulation studies and a real data example are used to evaluate the finite sample properties of the proposed estimators.     

A mathematical program to refine gene regulatory networks

In this paper, we propose a methodology for making sense of large, multiple time-series data sets arising in expression analysis. Specifically, we present a mathematical model to release a reduced and coherent regulatory system given a putative regulatory network. We give two equivalent formulations of the problem and prove that the problem is NP-complete. For solving large scale instances we implemented an Ant Colony Optimization procedure. A computational analysis on randomly generated test instances validates the proposed algorithm and the computations on real data concerning Saccharomyces cerevisiae show the practicability of the proposed methodology.     

A bayesian approach to binary response curve estimation

Summary The purpose of the present paper is to propose a practical procedure for the estimation of the binary response curve. The procedure is based on a model which approximates the response curve by a finely segmented piecewise constant function. To obtain a stable estimate we assume a prior distribution of the parameters of the model. The prior distribution has several parameters (hyper-parameters) which are chosen to minimize an information criterion ABIC. The procedure is applicable to data consisting of observations of a binary response variable and a single explanatory variable. The practical utility of the procedure is demonstrated by examples of applications to the dose response curve estimation, to the intensity function estimation of a point process and to the analysis of social survey data. The application of the procedure to the discriminant analysis is also briefly discussed. The Institute of statistical mathematics