Wisdom,decision support and paradigms of decision making

Many decision support tools have been developed over the last 20 years and, in general, they support what Simon termed substantive rationality. However, such tools are rarely suited to helping people tackle wicked problems, for which a form of procedural rationality is better suited. Procedurally rational approaches have appeared in both management science and computer science, examples being the soft OR approach of cognitive mapping and the design rationale based on IBIS. These approaches are reviewed and the development of Wisdom, a procedurally rational decision support process and accompanying tool, is discussed and evaluated.     

A taxing problem: The complementary use of hard and soft OR in the public sector

A review of the UK personal taxation system used a combination of hard and soft OR approaches in a complementary way. The hard OR was based on data mining to increase understanding of individual taxpayers and their changing needs within the personal tax system. The soft OR was based on soft systems methodology with two aims in mind. First, to guide the review and, secondly, as an auditable approach for collecting the views of key internal and external stakeholders. The soft and hard OR were used alongside one another, rather than one providing a contextual scheme for the other. The experience reveals that soft OR is much more than common sense and, that, used in parallel, soft and hard approaches have a powerful synergy.     

Mixing methodologies to enhance the implementation of healthcare operational research

Healthcare Operational Research (OR) has had limited success in achieving a sufficient level of stakeholder acceptance to lead to implementation of results. This research study is aimed at combining OR methodologies to achieve greater acceptance of results for organizational change. Patient flow delays in the Paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) at Children's Hospital of Wisconsin were identified using case studies. Patient flow was modelled using hard OR (simulation) using case study findings, with active stakeholder participation, and enhanced with outcomes research. Outcomes research allowed achieving greater clinical relevance of OR findings. Results from hard OR, particularly for politically sensitive issues, were persuasive but inadequate to result in change. Soft OR (cognitive mapping) was used to identify new issues and enhance results. Consequently, the planned PICU expansion was deferred, and resources focused on improving staffing strategies identified independently from both hard and soft OR. These findings suggest that: (1) Outcomes research can play a unique role to enhance results in healthcare OR. (2) After obtaining a holistic understanding of the system using hard and soft OR, stakeholders are willing to implement results from each independently, supporting the development of a common form of knowledge, which is consistent with Mixed-Mode Modelling. (3) Hard OR, enhanced with outcomes research, with active stakeholder participation, and combined with soft OR, results in greater acceptance and sustained organizational change.     

A methodology for supporting strategy implementation based on the VSM: A case study in a Latin-American multi-national

Soft OR tools have increasingly been used to support the strategic development of companies at operational and managerial levels. However, we still lack OR applications that can be useful in dealing with the “implementation gap”, understood as the scarcity of resources available to organizations seeking to align their existing processes and structures with a new strategy. In this paper we contribute to filling that gap, describing an action research case study where we supported strategy implementation in a Latin American multinational corporation through a soft OR methodology. We enhanced the ‘Methodology to support organizational self-transformation’, inspired by the Viable System Model, with substantive improvements in data collection and analyses. Those adjustments became necessary to facilitate second order learning and agreements on required structural changes among a large number of participants. This case study contributes to the soft OR and strategy literature with insights about the promise and constraints of this soft OR methodology to collectively structure complex decisions that support organizational redesign and strategy implementation.     

Putting Soft OR Methods to Work: Information Systems Strategy Development at Richards Bay

The development of an information systems (IS) strategy for a mineral extraction and processing plant operated by Rio Tinto Zinc (RTZ) in South Africa is described. The participative approach used was developed from soft OR and systems thinking. The aim of the Richards Bay project was to test commercially whether the Participative Information Management Strategy (PIMS) methodology could be used as a standard method to be applied to the development of an information systems strategy at any mine site. The paper describes the implementation of the process and the problems encountered. More generally it discusses the diffusion of new ideas in an international company, illustrated by the use of the participative approach for other activities including systems development. Conclusions are drawn about the value of participative approaches based on soft OR in this context.     

The symbiosis mechanism for effective knowledge transfer

Knowledge transfer is widely emphasized as a strategic issue for sustainable competitive advantage of an organization. To date, it seems that the soft and hard mechanisms are being employed for knowledge transfer. Although there is considerable variation in the researchers’ views about the role of the two mechanisms of knowledge transfer of an organization, this paper suggests a symbiotic strategy that recognizes the interplay between the soft and hard mechanisms. It is argued that the symbiosis mechanism falls somewhere between the rather divergent mechanisms. Drawing from the analogy of knowledge as an iceberg, the perceived explicitness of knowledge is contended to be the essential determinant for the proposed symbiosis mechanism. The paper then proceeds to analyse the tradeoffs of implementing the symbiosis mechanism. It is found that when an organization has similar unit costs of transferring explicit and tacit knowledge, it can ideally minimize its total knowledge transfer cost, aligning individual's effort with the organization's. The proposed symbiosis approach to knowledge transfer will provide powerful arguments for a more holistic view which is crucial for the effective knowledge transfer. However, it is to be noted that the model is a conceptual one, not an operational one in which the mathematics only explain a structure but do not guide the practitioner to find optimal solutions.     

Soft with a hard centre: discrete-event simulation in facilitation

Discrete event simulation is normally described as a ‘hard’ OR technique. This may not, however, always be the case. An example of a simulation of a user support helpline is described which, it is argued, has many of the traits of a ‘soft’ OR intervention. In particular, the study involved a facilitated discussion around a simulation model about possible improvements to a problem situation. The nature of the intervention is considered from both a methodological and paradigmatic perspective, and conclusions are drawn about where the intervention lies on a ‘hard’ to ‘soft’ continuum. It is argued that ‘soft’ issues need to be subsumed into the prescribed methodology for discrete-event simulation.     

Supporting strategic conversations: the significance of a quantitative model building process

This paper reports on the use of a quantitative system dynamics simulation model building process that followed on from a ‘soft OR’ strategy making intervention with a top management team. The work was carried out for the Chief Constable and top team of a UK police force. The output of the ‘soft OR’ strategy making process provided the reason for, and so focus of, the simulation model. The focus of the strategic conversation was on exploring the tension between the supply of resources (in this case police officers) and the demands placed on those officers. The project involved a series of strategic conversations with members of the top team that were stimulated through the process of building a system dynamics model. The process was facilitated by two modellers—one focussing on managing the strategic enquiry, while the other considered the implications of the conversation for the construction of the system dynamics model. Through the process of gradually building the system dynamics model, a number of issues and lessons were raised for the development and delivery of effective strategy making and the strategic management of public organisations. In addition there were implications for operational research model building processes, especially when operating at senior levels and within a strategic context.     

Supporting the strategy process: a survey of UK OR/MS practitioners

This paper reports the results of an online survey conducted with practitioner members of the UK Operational Research (OR) Society. The purpose of the survey was to explore the current practice of supporting the strategy process in terms of activities supported and tools used. The results of the survey are compared to those of previous surveys to explore developments in, inter alia, the use of management/strategy tools and ‘soft’ Operational Research/Management Science (OR/MS) tools. The survey results demonstrate that OR practitioners actively support the strategy process within their organisations. While a wide variety of tools, drawn from the OR/MS and management/strategy fields, are used to support the strategy process within organisations, the findings suggest that soft OR/MS tools are not regularly used. The findings also demonstrate that tools are combined to support the strategy process from both within and across the OR/MS and management/strategy fields. The paper ends by identifying a number of areas for further research.     

Strategy making with the whole organisation: OR and the art of the possible

Present-day expectations of wide stakeholder involvement in strategy-making processes have been addressed in distinctive ways by the Operational Research (OR) and Organisational Development (OD) communities. This paper describes an intervention supporting a strategy for change in a university where a high degree of participation was essential to address the substantive issues faced following the disappointing outcome of an employee satisfaction survey. The importance of staff satisfaction for achieving good business outcomes is explained in the paper before an account is given of the work that was undertaken using a combination of Large Group Intervention and Problem Structuring Method approaches. The achievement of the project in shifting the locus of perceived control and opening up a more participative strategic debate is next assessed. The case demonstrated the benefit of using an intervention process whose participatory nature mirrored the desired changes in the client organisation, and in which the dramatisation of senior management group commitment underlined determination to effect change. Other implications are discussed: the value of using a novel assemblage of approaches and techniques rather than inflexibly following a single methodology; the potential payoff from closer work between the disciplines of OR and OD; and the observation that there is a real opportunity for the wider use of participative approaches in strategy making, something that OR practitioners are well-placed to provide.     

Putting Soft OR Methods to Work: Information Systems Strategy Development at Sainsbury's

The development of a new information systems (IS) strategy for a major UK food and grocery retailer is described. The approach taken was highly participative and made use of a number of models and methods developed by the advocates of soft OR and systems thinking. The resulting process was successful in delivering a strategy developed by management, with commitment to implement it. In addition, the teamwork across functional boundaries was recognized as valuable management development.     

Knowledge management: a review of the field and of OR's contribution

This paper examines the field of knowledge management (KM) and identifies the role of operational research (OR) in key milestones and in KM's future. With the presence of the OR Society journal Knowledge Management Research and Practice and with the INFORMS journal Organization Science, OR may be assumed to have an explicit and a leading role in KM. Unfortunately, the origins and the evidence of recent research efforts do not fully support this assumption. We argue that while OR has been inside many of the milestones there is no explicit recognition of its role and while OR research on KM has considerably increased in the last 5 years, it still forms a rather modest explicit contribution to KM research. Nevertheless, the depth of OR's experience in decision-making models and decision support systems, soft systems with hard systems and in risk management suggests that OR is uniquely placed to lead future KM developments. We suggest that a limiting aspect of whether OR will be seen to have a significant profile will be the extent to which developments are recognized as being informed by OR.     

Multimethodology in series and parallel: strategic planning using hard and soft OR

This paper examines two distinct ways in which hard and soft operational research (OR) methodologies can be combined, in series and in parallel. Multimethodology in series is acknowledged as the simpler and more common approach. Multimethodology in parallel is identified as having the potential to provide significant benefits to projects in political, changing, or ‘wicked’ contexts that multimethodology in series cannot. Observations regarding these approaches to multimethodology are examined in light of an information systems strategic planning project in the Australian public sector. Two distinct methodologies were combined in the project: soft systems methodology and project management. These methodologies are based on the soft and hard paradigms, respectively. However, findings in this paper have the potential to be transferred to combinations of other hard and soft OR methodologies.     

A comprehensive energy model in the municipal energy planning process

Based on several years of experience, the procedural aspects of the use of a comprehensive LP-model for community energy planning is discussed. The community energy system is seen as a technically complex, open system which is managed by a network of organizations (esoteric boxes). Technical complexity, closure and lack of unique management raises specific procedural problems for which solutions are suggested. The network management gives the comprehensive model a special rôle in the planning process in providing for improved information flows and conflict resolution. The viability of the paradigm of learning is noted. A methodology to merge substantive and procedural aspects is proposed.     

Prospering In a Global Economy

In the rapidly changing business environment, managers have to decide in what direction to change their businesses, and how to effect the desired changes. Benchmarking is one technique that uses the principles of OR and, as an example of its power, the results are summarized here of a major Andersen Consulting study of worldwide manufacturing competitiveness. But how we see business problems and relationships is as important as what we see. The Hofstede analysis of five cultural dimensions is discussed, together with its implications for co-operation and human relationships within the firm, and even for the formulation of strategy. The four strategy styles distinguished by Whittington reveal the importance of human and cultural factors in the very heart of business. In the battle for future markets, it is vital that the hard and soft techniques work in tandem.     

The impact of contingency factors on validation of problem structuring methods

Although much has been written about validating Decision support systems andother ‘hard’ OR models, less has been written about validating‘soft’ OR models. This article seeks to determine which contingencyfactors known to influence DSS validation are also important factors influencingproblem structuring methods (PSM) validation. In addition, after consultationwith PSM experts other contingency factors influencing PSM validation areproposed. Evidence from these PSM experts concerning the levels of influence ofthese factors is used to support proposals for a contingency approach to PSMvalidation.     

Frameworks of Inquiry: OR Practice Across the Hard—Soft Divide

The growing interest in understanding the practice of OR has, not unnaturally, tended to concentrate upon experience with those ‘soft’ methodologies which address both process and content management issues. This paper uses a detailed account of one practitioner's work in a ‘traditional’ area of OR (linear programming) to demonstrate how process-related issues are handled there, and argues that more extensive reporting of such conventional practice is essential for the health of the discipline. In particular, it suggests that an emphasis on discussing the development of working relationships between OR practitioners and their clients might usefully supplant the contemporary emphasis on the ‘project’.     

A Problem-driven Approach to Expert System Development

Expert system technology can fairly be described as high profile at present. Yet its track record as a useful method for tackling problems is subject to widely differing views. This paper considers the domain of production planning and control, which has been described as a good application area for expert systems a domain where OR has had little success. The authors argue that mainstream expert system methodology is exploratory rather than problem-driven and thus is not suited to the domain. A problem-driven approach to expert system development is presented, an approach which makes use of soft systems methodology. The reasons for such an approach within production planning and control are discussed, and the use of soft systems methodology within the approach is reflected on.     

A rough set approach to intuitionistic fuzzy soft set based decision making

The soft set theory, originally proposed by Molodtsov, can be used as a general mathematical tool for dealing with uncertainty. Since its appearance, there has been some progress concerning practical applications of soft set theory, especially the use of soft sets in decision making. The intuitionistic fuzzy soft set is a combination of an intuitionistic fuzzy set and a soft set. The rough set theory is a powerful tool for dealing with uncertainty, granuality and incompleteness of knowledge in information systems. Using rough set theory, this paper proposes a novel approach to intuitionistic fuzzy soft set based decision making problems. Firstly, by employing an intuitionistic fuzzy relation and a threshold value pair, we define a new rough set model and examine some fundamental properties of this rough set model. Then the concepts of approximate precision and rough degree are given and some basic properties are discussed. Furthermore, we investigate the relationship between intuitionistic fuzzy soft sets and intuitionistic fuzzy relations and present a rough set approach to intuitionistic fuzzy soft set based decision making. Finally, an illustrative example is employed to show the validity of this rough set approach in intuitionistic fuzzy soft set based decision making problems.     

基于Agent仿真的个体有限理性与众包绩效的关系研究

如何筛选有限理性参与者是企业实施众包的关键问题。通过引入个体有限理性,扩展了经典的NK模型,构建了模拟竞赛式众包问题解决过程的多主体仿真模型,研究了个体有限理性水平、个体有限理性系统化程度以及个体有限理性水平标准差对众包绩效的影响。仿真结果显示,个体有限理性水平对提高众包绩效有显著的正向影响,尤其是在任务复杂性较高的情况下;个体有限理性系统化程度和个体有限理性水平标准差对众包绩效也有正向影响,但依赖于个体有限理性水平。当企业有一个复杂性较高的任务时,如果追求所有方案的整体改善,企业需要招募有限理性水平较高的个体,并组成有限理性系统化程度较高且有限理性水平标准差较大的群体;如果追求少数优质方案,企业需要招募有限理性水平较高的个体,并组成有限理性系统化程度较低且有限理性水平标准差较大的群体。