Multi-stage portfolio selection problem with dynamic stochastic dominance constraints

We study the multi-stage portfolio selection problem where the utility function of an investor is ambiguous. The ambiguity is characterized by dynamic stochastic dominance constraints, which are able to capture the dynamics of the random return sequence during the investment process. We propose a multi-stage dynamic stochastic dominance constrained portfolio selection model, and use a mixed normal distribution with time-varying weights and the K-means clustering technique to generate a scenario tree for the transformation of the proposed model. Based on the scenario tree representation, we derive two linear programming approximation problems, using the sampling approach or the duality theory, which provide an upper bound approximation and a lower bound approximation for the original nonconvex problem. The upper bound is asymptotically tight with infinitely many samples. Numerical results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed new model and solution techniques.

     

Numerical methods for stochastic programs with second order dominance constraints with applications to portfolio optimization

Inspired by the successful applications of the stochastic optimization with second order stochastic dominance (SSD) model in portfolio optimization, we study new numerical methods for a general SSD model where the underlying functions are not necessarily linear. Specifically, we penalize the SSD constraints to the objective under Slater’s constraint qualification and then apply the well known stochastic approximation (SA) method and the level function method to solve the penalized problem. Both methods are iterative: the former requires to calculate an approximate subgradient of the objective function of the penalized problem at each iterate while the latter requires to calculate a subgradient. Under some moderate conditions, we show that w.p.1 the sequence of approximated solutions generated by the SA method converges to an optimal solution of the true problem. As for the level function method, the convergence is deterministic and in some cases we are able to estimate the number of iterations for a given precision. Both methods are applied to portfolio optimization problem where the return functions are not necessarily linear and some numerical test results are reported.     

Postoptimality for multistage stochastic linear programs

The contamination technique is presented as a flexible and relatively easily tractable tool to postoptimality analysis for scenario based multistage stochastic linear programs. It is promising especially in cases when the influence of additional or out-of-sample scenarios on the already solved problem is to be explored.Research supported in part by the Grant Agency of the Czech Republic under Grant No. 402/93/0631.     

Optimal selectors for stochastic linear programs

The “distribution problem” of stochastic linear programming consists in answering the following two questions: Is the optimal value of a given stochastic linear program—regarded as a function—measurable, and if so, what is its distribution? In the present note we make use of a general selection theorem to answer the first question positively. By this approach, an answer to the second question is obtained—at least theoretically—at the same time.     

A stochastic programming approach for multi-period portfolio optimization

This paper extends previous work on the use of stochastic linear programming to solve life-cycle investment problems. We combine the feature of asset return predictability with practically relevant constraints arising in a life-cycle investment context. The objective is to maximize the expected utility of consumption over the lifetime and of bequest at the time of death of the investor. Asset returns and state variables follow a first-order vector auto-regression and the associated uncertainty is described by discrete scenario trees. To deal with the long time intervals involved in life-cycle problems we consider a few short-term decisions (to exploit any short-term return predictability), and incorporate a closed-form solution for the long, subsequent steady-state period to account for end effects.     

Multi-stage stochastic optimization applied to energy planning

This paper presents a methodology for the solution of multistage stochastic optimization problems, based on the approximation of the expected-cost-to-go functions of stochastic dynamic programming by piecewise linear functions. No state discretization is necessary, and the combinatorial explosion with the number of states (the well known curse of dimensionality of dynamic programming) is avoided. The piecewise functions are obtained from the dual solutions of the optimization problem at each stage and correspond to Benders cuts in a stochastic, multistage decomposition framework. A case study of optimal stochastic scheduling for a 39-reservoir system is presented and discussed.     

Multi-stage stochastic optimization: the distance between stochastic scenario processes

Computational Management Science - Approximation techniques are challenging, important and very often irreplaceable solution methods for multi-stage stochastic optimization programs. Applications...     

A regularized stochastic decomposition algorithm for two-stage stochastic linear programs

In this paper a regularized stochastic decomposition algorithm with master programs of finite size is described for solving two-stage stochastic linear programming problems with recourse. In a deterministic setting cut dropping schemes in decomposition based algorithms have been used routinely. However, when only estimates of the objective function are available such schemes can only be properly justified if convergence results are not sacrificed. It is shown that almost surely every accumulation point in an identified subsequence of iterates produced by the algorithm, which includes a cut dropping scheme, is an optimal solution. The results are obtained by including a quadratic proximal term in the master program. In addition to the cut dropping scheme, other enhancements to the existing methodology are described. These include (i) a new updating rule for the retained cuts and (ii) an adaptive rule to determine when additional reestimation of the cut associated with the current solution is needed. The algorithm is tested on problems from the literature assuming both descrete and continuous random variables.A majority of this work is part of the author's Ph.D. dissertation prepared at the University of Arizona in 1990.     

A maximum principle for relaxed stochastic control of linear SDEs with application to bond portfolio optimization

We study relaxed stochastic control problems where the state equation is a one dimensional linear stochastic differential equation with random and unbounded coefficients. The two main results are existence of an optimal relaxed control and necessary conditions for optimality in the form of a relaxed maximum principle. The main motivation is an optimal bond portfolio problem in a market where there exists a continuum of bonds and the portfolio weights are modeled as measure-valued processes on the set of times to maturity.     

Multi-period stochastic portfolio optimization: Block-separable decomposition

We consider a multiperiod stochastic programming recourse model for stock portfolio optimization. The presence of various risk and policy constraints leads to significant period-by-period linkage in the model. Furthermore, the dimensionality of the model is large due to many securities under consideration. We propose exploiting block separable recourse structure as well as methods of inducing such structure within nested L-shaped decomposition. We test the model and solution methodology with a base consisting of the Standard & Poor 100 stocks and experiment with several variants of the block separable technique. These are then compared to the standard nested period-by-period decomposition algorithm. It turns out that for financial optimization models of the kind that are discussed in this paper, significant computational efficiencies can be gained with the proposed methodology.     

A warm-start approach for large-scale stochastic linear programs

We describe a way of generating a warm-start point for interior point methods in the context of stochastic programming. Our approach exploits the structural information of the stochastic problem so that it can be seen as a structure-exploiting initial point generator. We solve a small-scale version of the problem corresponding to a reduced event tree and use the solution to generate an advanced starting point for the complete problem. The way we produce a reduced tree tries to capture the important information in the scenario space while keeping the dimension of the corresponding (reduced) deterministic equivalent small. We derive conditions which should be satisfied by the reduced tree to guarantee a successful warm-start of the complete problem. The implementation within the HOPDM and OOPS interior point solvers shows remarkable advantages.     

A multicut algorithm for two-stage stochastic linear programs

Outer linearization methods, such as Van Slyke and West's L-shaped method for stochastic linear programs, generally apply a single cut on the nonlinear objective at each major iteration. The structure of stochastic programs allows for several cuts to be placed at once. This paper describes a multicut algorithm to carry out this procedure. It presents experimental and theoretical justification for reductions in major iterations.     

A stochastic programming approach to multicriteria portfolio optimization

We study a stochastic programming approach to multicriteria multi-period portfolio optimization problem. We use a Single Index Model to estimate the returns of stocks from a market-representative index and a random walk model to generate scenarios on the possible values of the index return. We consider expected return, Conditional Value at Risk and liquidity as our criteria. With stocks from Istanbul Stock Exchange, we make computational studies for the two and three-criteria cases. We demonstrate the tradeoffs between criteria and show that treating these criteria simultaneously yields meaningful efficient solutions. We provide insights based on our experiments.     

A stochastic portfolio optimization model with complete memory

In this article, we consider a portfolio optimization problem of the Merton’s type with complete memory over a finite time horizon. The problem is formulated as a stochastic control problem on a finite time horizon and the state evolves according to a process governed by a stochastic process with memory. The goal is to choose investment and consumption controls such that the total expected discounted utility is maximized. Under certain conditions, we derive the explicit solutions for the associated Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equations in a finite-dimensional space for exponential, logarithmic, and power utility functions. For those utility functions, verification results are established to ensure that the solutions are equal to the value functions, and the optimal controls are also derived.     

On the multi-dimensional portfolio optimization with stochastic volatility

In a recent paper by Mnif [18], a solution to the portfolio optimization with stochastic volatility and constraints problem has been proposed, in which most of the model parameters are time-homogeneous. However, there are cases where time-dependent parameters are needed, such as in the calibration of financial models. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to generalize the work of Mnif [18] to the time-inhomogeneous case. We consider a time-dependent exponential utility function of which the objective is to maximize the expected utility from the investor’s terminal wealth. The derived Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman(HJB) equation, is highly nonlinear and is reduced to a semilinear partial differential equation (PDE) by a suitable transformation. The existence of a smooth solution is proved and a verification theorem presented. A multi-asset stochastic volatility model with jumps and endowed with time-dependent parameters is illustrated.     

Risk-averse feasible policies for large-scale multistage stochastic linear programs

We develop tractable semidefinite programming based approximations for distributionally robust individual and joint chance constraints, assuming that only the first- and second-order moments as well as the support of the uncertain parameters are given. It is known that robust chance constraints can be conservatively approximated by Worst-Case Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) constraints. We first prove that this approximation is exact for robust individual chance constraints with concave or (not necessarily concave) quadratic constraint functions, and we demonstrate that the Worst-Case CVaR can be computed efficiently for these classes of constraint functions. Next, we study the Worst-Case CVaR approximation for joint chance constraints. This approximation affords intuitive dual interpretations and is provably tighter than two popular benchmark approximations. The tightness depends on a set of scaling parameters, which can be tuned via a sequential convex optimization algorithm. We show that the approximation becomes essentially exact when the scaling parameters are chosen optimally and that the Worst-Case CVaR can be evaluated efficiently if the scaling parameters are kept constant. We evaluate our joint chance constraint approximation in the context of a dynamic water reservoir control problem and numerically demonstrate its superiority over the two benchmark approximations.     

Conditioning of convex piecewise linear stochastic programs

 In this paper we consider stochastic programming problems where the objective function is given as an expected value of a convex piecewise linear random function. With an optimal solution of such a problem we associate a condition number which characterizes well or ill conditioning of the problem. Using theory of Large Deviations we show that the sample size needed to calculate the optimal solution of such problem with a given probability is approximately proportional to the condition number. Received: May 2000 / Accepted: May 2002-07-16 Published online: September 5, 2002 RID="★" The research of this author was supported, in part, by grant DMS-0073770 from the National Science Foundation Key Words. stochastic programming – Monte Carlo simulation – large deviations theory – ill-conditioned problems     

Cut sharing for multistage stochastic linear programs with interstage dependency

Multistage stochastic programs with interstage independent random parameters have recourse functions that do not depend on the state of the system. Decomposition-based algorithms can exploit this structure by sharing cuts (outer-linearizations of the recourse function) among different scenario subproblems at the same stage. The ability to share cuts is necessary in practical implementations of algorithms that incorporate Monte Carlo sampling within the decomposition scheme. In this paper, we provide methodology for sharing cuts in decomposition algorithms for stochastic programs that satisfy certain interstage dependency models. These techniques enable sampling-based algorithms to handle a richer class of multistage problems, and may also be used to accelerate the convergence of exact decomposition algorithms. Research leading to this work was partially supported by the Department of Energy Contract DE-FG03-92ER25116-A002; the Office of Naval Research Contract N00014-89-J-1659; the National Science Foundation Grants ECS-8906260, DMS-8913089; and the Electric Power Research Institute Contract RP 8010-09, CSA-4O05335. This author's work was supported in part by the National Research Council under a Research Associateship at the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California.