The evidential reasoning approach for multi-attribute decision analysis under interval uncertainty

The evidential reasoning (ER) approach is a method for multiple attribute decision analysis (MADA) under uncertainties. It improves the insightfulness and rationality of a decision making process by using a belief decision matrix (BDM) for problem modelling and the Dempster–Shafer (D–S) theory of evidence for attribute aggregation. The D–S theory provides scope and flexibility to deal with interval uncertainties or local ignorance in decision analysis, which is not explored in the original ER approach and will be investigated in this paper. Firstly, interval uncertainty will be defined and modelled in the ER framework. Then, an extended ER algorithm, IER, is derived, which enables the ER approach to deal with interval uncertainty in assessing alternatives on an attribute. It is proved that the original ER algorithm is a special case of the IER algorithm. The latter is demonstrated using numerical examples.     

Environmental impact assessment using the evidential reasoning approach

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) problems are often characterised by a large number of identified environmental factors that are qualitative in nature and can only be assessed on the basis of human judgments, which inevitably involve various types of uncertainties such as ignorance and fuzziness. So, EIA problems need to be modelled and analysed using methods that can handle uncertainties. The evidential reasoning (ER) approach provides such a modelling framework and analysis method. In this paper the ER approach will be applied to conduct EIA analysis for the first time. The environmental impact consequences are characterized by a set of assessment grades that are assumed to be collectively exhaustive and mutually exclusive. All assessment information, quantitative or qualitative, complete or incomplete, and precise or imprecise, is modelled using a unified framework of a belief structure. The original ER approach with a recursive ER algorithm will be introduced and a new analytical ER algorithm will be investigated which provides a means for using the ER approach in decision situations where an explicit ER aggregation function is needed such as in optimisation problems. The ER approach will be used to aggregate multiple environmental factors, resulting in an aggregated distributed assessment for each alternative policy. A numerical example and its modified version are studied to illustrate the detailed implementation process of the ER approach and demonstrate its potential applications in EIA.     

The group consensus based evidential reasoning approach for multiple attributive group decision analysis

Many multiple attribute decision analysis problems include both quantitative and qualitative attributes with various kinds of uncertainties such as ignorance, fuzziness, interval data, and interval belief degrees. An evidential reasoning (ER) approach developed in the 1990s and in recent years can be used to model these problems. In this paper, the ER approach is extended to group consensus (GC) situations for multiple attributive group decision analysis problems. In order to construct and check the GC, a compatibility measure between two belief structures is developed first. Considering two experts’ utilities, the compatibility between their assessments is naturally constructed using the compatibility measure. Based on the compatibility between two experts’ assessments, the GC at a specific level that may be the attribute level, the alternative level, or the global level, can be constructed and reached after the group analysis and discussion within specified times. Under the condition of GC, we conduct a study on the forming of group assessments for alternatives, the achievement of the aggregated utilities of assessment grades, and the properties and procedure of the extended ER approach. An engineering project management software selection problem is solved by the extended ER approach to demonstrate its detailed implementation process, and its validity and applicability.     

Combining principal component analysis and the evidential reasoning approach for healthcare quality assessment

Patient experience and satisfaction surveys have been adopted worldwide to evaluate healthcare quality. Nevertheless, national governments and the general public continue to search for optimal methods to assess healthcare quality from the patient’s perspective. This study proposes a new hybrid method, which combines principal component analysis (PCA) and the evidential reasoning (ER) approach, for assessing patient satisfaction. PCA is utilized to transform correlated items into a few uncorrelated principal components (PCs). Then, the ER approach is employed to aggregate extracted PCs, which are considered as multiple attributes or criteria within the ER framework. To compare the performance of the proposed method with that of another assessment method, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is employed to acquire the weight of each assessment item in the hierarchical assessment framework, and the ER approach is used to aggregate patient evaluation for each item. Compared with the combined AHP and ER approach, which relies on the respondents’ subjective judgments to calculate criterion and subcriterion weights in the assessment framework, the proposed method is highly objective and completely based on survey data. This study contributes a novel and innovative hybrid method that can help hospital administrators obtain an objective and aggregated healthcare quality assessment based on patient experience.     

An introduction and survey of the evidential reasoning approach for multiple criteria decision analysis

The Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach is a general approach for analyzing multiple criteria decision problems under various types of uncertainty using a unified framework—belief structure. In this paper, the ER approach is surveyed from two aspects: theoretical development and applications. After a brief outline of its development and extension over a twenty year period, the ER approach is outlined with a focus on the links among its various developments. Future research directions in the area are also explored in the survey.     

Arc refractor methods for adaptive importance sampling on large Bayesian networks under evidential reasoning

Approximate Bayesian inference by importance sampling derives probabilistic statements from a Bayesian network, an essential part of evidential reasoning with the network and an important aspect of many Bayesian methods. A critical problem in importance sampling on Bayesian networks is the selection of a good importance function to sample a network’s prior and posterior probability distribution. The initially optimal importance functions eventually start deviating from the optimal function when sampling a network’s posterior distribution given evidence, even when adaptive methods are used that adjust an importance function to the evidence by learning. In this article we propose a new family of Refractor Importance Sampling (RIS) algorithms for adaptive importance sampling under evidential reasoning. RIS applies “arc refractors” to a Bayesian network by adding new arcs and refining the conditional probability tables. The goal of RIS is to optimize the importance function for the posterior distribution and reduce the error variance of sampling. Our experimental results show a significant improvement of RIS over state-of-the-art adaptive importance sampling algorithms.     

A note on article “The evidential reasoning approach for multiple attribute decision analysis using interval belief degrees”

Wang et al. use an evidential reasoning approach for solving multiple attribute decision analysis (MADA) problems under interval belief degrees [Y.M. Wang, J.B. Yang, D.L. Xu, K.S. Chin, The evidential reasoning approach for multiple attribute decision analysis using interval belief degrees, European Journal of Operational Research 175 (2006) 35–66]. In this note it is shown some nonlinear optimization models in that paper are incorrect. The necessary corrections are proposed.     

An innovative approach for strategic capacity portfolio planning under uncertainties

This research studies multi-generation capacity portfolio planning problems under various uncertainty factors. These uncertainty factors include price uncertainties, demand fluctuation and uncertain product life cycle. The objective of this research is to develop an efficient algorithm that generates capacity portfolio policies robust to aforementioned uncertainties.     

Multidimensional interval-valued fuzzy reasoning approach based on weighted similarity measure

This paper focuses on presentation of a method to bidirectional interval-valued fuzzy approximate reasoning by employing a weighted similarity measure between the fact and the antecedent (or consequent) portion of production rule in which the vague terms are represented by interval-valued fuzzy concepts rather than plain fuzzy sets. The proposed method is more reasonable and flexible than the one presented in the paper by Chen [Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 91(1997), 339–353] due to the fact that it not only can deal with multidimensional interval-valued fuzzy reasoning scheme, but also consider the different importance degree of linguistic variables in production rule and that of elements in each universe.     

A fuzzy stochastic model for telecommunications bandwidth brokers under probabilistic QoS measures

In this paper, we model and solve profit maximization problem of a telecommunications Bandwidth Broker (BB) under uncertain market and network infrastructure conditions. The BB may lease network capacity from a set of Backbone Providers (BPs) or from other BBs in order to gain profit by leasing already purchased capacity to end-users. BB’s problem becomes harder to deal with when bandwidth requests of end-users, profit and cost margins are not known in advance. The novelty of the proposed work is the development of a mechanism via combining fuzzy and stochastic programming methodologies for solving complex BP selection and bandwidth demand allocation problem in communication networks, based on the fact that information needed for making these decisions is not available prior to leasing capacity. In addition, suggested model aims to maximize BB’s decision maker’s satisfaction ratio rather than just profit. As a solution strategy, the resulting fuzzy stochastic programming model is transformed into deterministic crisp equivalent form and then solved to optimality. Finally, the numerical experiments show that on the average, proposed approach provides 14.30% more profit and 69.50% more satisfaction ratio compared to deterministic approaches in which randomness and vagueness in the market and infrastructure are ignored.     

A computer program for fuzzy reasoning

An interactive computer program is described which implements the procedure proposed in “A Formal System for Fuzzy Reasoning” [1]. The problem in question is that of deciding what conclusions may be drawn in the presence of (posibly conflicting) evidence provided, generally with associated partial degrees of belief, by several sources of differing reliability. In using the program, each piece of evidence is entered as a sentence (using the terms NOT, AND, OR, IMPLIES as necessary), with an associated ‘degree of belief’ and ‘weight’; followed by a tentative conclusion. The system returns the degree(s) of belief and weight(s) which may rationally be attached to the conclusion. Copies of the program, written in FORTRAN IV (870 lines) have been lodged with the program libraries CUBE, DECUS, and SHARE, or may be obtained by writing to the author.     

Reply to the note on article “The evidential reasoning approach for multiple attribute decision analysis using interval belief degrees”

In a very recent note by Gao and Ni [B. Gao, M.F. Ni, A note on article “The evidential reasoning approach for multiple attribute decision analysis using interval belief degrees”, European Journal of Operational Research, in press, doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2007.10.0381], they argued that Yen’s combination rule [J. Yen, Generalizing the Dempster–Shafer theory to fuzzy sets, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics 20 (1990) 559–570], which normalizes the combination of multiple pieces of evidence at the end of the combination process, was incorrect. If this were the case, the nonlinear programming models we proposed in [Y.M. Wang, J.B. Yang, D.L. Xu, K.S. Chin, The evidential reasoning approach for multiple attribute decision analysis using interval belief degrees, European Journal of Operational Research 175 (2006) 35–66] would also be incorrect. In this reply to Gao and Ni, we re-examine their numerical illustrations and reconsider their analysis of Yen’s combination rule. We conclude that Yen’s combination rule is correct and our nonlinear programming models are valid.     

A formal system for fuzzy reasoning

A formal system for fuzzy reasoning is described which is capable of dealing rationally with evidence which may be inconsistent and/or involve degrees of belief. The basic idea is that the meaning of each formal sentence should be given by a certain commitment or bet associated with it. Each item of evidence is first expressed in the form of such a (hypothetical) bet, which is then written as a formal sentence in a language related to ?ukasiewicz logic. The sentences may be weighted to express the relative reliability of the various informants. A sentence is considered to “follow” from the evidence if the bet it represents can be offered by a speaker without fear of loss, on the assumption that the bets representing various items of evidence have been offered to him. A detailed account, illustrated by concrete examples, is given of the procedures by which an arbitrary sentence in common language can be translated into a formal sentence. The treatment of inconsistency, degrees of belief, and weights is illustrated by a practical example which is solved in full. It is shown that in most practical cases the computations involved in the process of formal reasoning reduce to a problem in linear programming. In the last section the relation between this system and the procedures advocated by Zadeh is examined. It is shown that, subject to certain modifications in formulas, there is general agreement in the region of overlap.     

Quantum game approach for capacity allocation decisions under strategic reasoning

From a common point of view, quantum mechanics, psychology, and decision science disciplines try to predict how unruly systems (atomic particles, human behaviors, and decision makers’ choices) might behave in the future. Effective predicting outcome of a capacity allocation game under various allocation policies requires a profound understanding as how strategic reasoning of decision makers contributes to the financial gain of players. A quantum game framework is employed in the current study to investigate how performance of allocation policies is affected when buyers strategize over order quantities. The results show that the degree of being manipulative for allocation mechanisms is not identical and adopting adaptive quantum method is the most effective approach to secure the highest fill rate and profit when it is practiced under a reasonable range of entanglement levels.

     

The aggregation operations for decision making in probabilistic fuzzy environment

This paper deals with some important classes of aggregation operations on various kinds of sets applied to decision making problems.These operations are mainly based on general concepts such as triangular norms (t- and s-norms). In this paper we focus particularly on operations on probabilistic sets and their distribution function representation. The considerations are illustrated by means of numerical examples.     

Performance assessment of a trajectory-tracking approach for a manipulator with uncertainties using inverse fuzzy arithmetic

A trajectory-tracking approach for a parallel kinematic manipulator with flexible links is investigated with respect to its robustness to undesired initial oscillations. For this purpose, an inverse fuzzy arithmetical scheme is presented and applied, in order to estimate allowable bounds on the initial conditions such that a certain tolerance band around the desired trajectory is not violated. The uncertainty bounds on the initial conditions obtained from this identification procedure indicate the influence of the disturbances on the tracking error, and thus also the robustness and the performance of the control scheme. (© 2015 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Time-dependent reliability-based design optimization with probabilistic and interval uncertainties

Time-dependent reliability-based design optimization with both probabilistic and interval uncertainties is a cost-consuming problem in engineering practice which generally needs huge computational burden. In order to deal with this issue, a sequential single-loop optimization strategy is established in this work. The established sequential single-loop optimization strategy converts the original triple-loop optimization into a sequence of deterministic optimization, the estimations of time instant and interval value that corresponding to the worst case scenario, and the minimum performance target point searching. Two key points in the sequential single-loop optimization strategy guarantee the high efficiency of the proposed strategy. One is that no iterative searching step is needed to find the minimum performance target point at each iteration in the proposed sequential single-loop optimization strategy. The other is that only the correction step needs the reliability analysis to correct the design parameter solutions. In the example section, four minimum performance target point searching techniques are combined with the sequential single-loop optimization strategy to solve the corresponding optimization problems so to illustrate the effectiveness of the established strategy.