Relief inventory modelling with stochastic lead-time and demand

The irregular demand and communication network disruption that are characteristics of situations demanding humanitarian logistics, particularly after large-scale earthquakes, present a unique challenge for relief inventory modelling. However, there are few quantitative inventory models in humanitarian logistics, and assumptions inherent in commercial logistics naturally have little applicability to humanitarian logistics. This paper develops a humanitarian disaster relief inventory model that assumes a uniformly distributed function in both lead-time and demand parameters, which is appropriate considering the limited historical data on relief operation. Furthermore, this paper presents different combinations of lead-time and demand scenarios to demonstrate the variability of the model. This is followed by the discussion of a case study wherein the decision variables are evaluated and sensitivity analysis is performed. The results reveal the presence of a unique reorder level in the inventory wherever the order quantity is insensitive to some lead-time demand values, providing valuable direction for humanitarian relief planning efforts and future research.     

Concepts for safety stock determination under stochastic demand and different types of random production yield

We consider a manufacturer’s stochastic production/inventory problem under periodic review and present methods for safety stock determination to cope with uncertainties that are caused by stochastic demand and different types of yield randomness. Following well-proven inventory control concepts for this problem type, we focus on a critical stock policy with a linear order release rule. A central parameter of this type of policy is given by the safety stock value. When non-zero manufacturing lead times are taken into account in the random yield context, it turns out that safety stocks have to be determined that vary from period to period. We present a simple approach for calculating these dynamic safety stocks for different yield models. Additionally, we suggest approaches for determining appropriate static safety stocks that are easier to apply in practice. In a simulation study we investigate the performance of the proposed safety stock variants.     

Base stock policies for production/inventory problems with uncertain capacity levels

In this paper we consider a single item, stochastic demand production/inventory problem where the maximum amount that can be produced (or ordered) in any given period is assumed to be uncertain. Inventory levels are reviewed periodically. The system operates under a stationary modified base stock policy. The intent of our paper is to present a procedure for computing the optimal base stocl level of this policy under expected average cost per period criterion. This procedure would provide guidance as to the appropriate amount of capacity to store in the form of inventory in the face of stochastic demand and uncertain capacity. In achieving this goal, our main contribution is to establish the analogy between the class of base stock production/inventory policies that operate under demand/capacity uncertainty, and the G/G/1 queues and their associated random walks. We also present example derivations for some important capacity distributions.     

An interactive method for inventory control with fuzzy lead-time and dynamic demand

Normally, the real-world inventory control problems are imprecisely defined and human interventions are often required to solve these decision-making problems. In this paper, a realistic inventory model with imprecise demand, lead-time and inventory costs have been formulated and an inventory policy is proposed to minimize the cost using man–machine interaction. Here, demand increases with time at a decreasing rate. The imprecise parameters of lead-time, inventory costs and demand are expressed through linear/non-linear membership functions. These are represented by different types of membership functions, linear or quadratic, depending upon the prevailing supply condition and marketing environment. The imprecise parameters are first transformed into corresponding interval numbers and then following the interval mathematics, the objective function for average cost is changed into respective multi-objective functions. These functions are minimized and solved for a Pareto-optimum solution by interactive fuzzy decision-making procedure. This process leads to man–machine interaction for optimum and appropriate decision acceptable to the decision maker’s firm. The model is illustrated numerically and the results are presented in tabular forms.     

Inventory rationing for the News-Vendor problem with a drop-shipping option

We consider a single-period inventory model for a bricks-and-clicks business. Store inventory can be used to fulfill both store demand and internet demand. Drop-shipping is used as an additional option for internet sale. We analyze two rationing policies for store inventory: a threshold policy and a fixed-portion policy. We formulate the expected profit for both and prove concavity. There exists an optimal order quantity for store inventory and an optimal stock rationing level below which the manager starts to use drop-shipping for internet demand. Numerical examples show that considering the rationing problem for the single-period inventory model, which is ignored in some earlier works, can result in remarkable differences.     

An aggregate–disaggregate intermittent demand approach (ADIDA) to forecasting: an empirical proposition and analysis

Intermittent demand patterns are characterised by infrequent demand arrivals coupled with variable demand sizes. Such patterns prevail in many industrial applications, including IT, automotive, aerospace and military. An intuitively appealing strategy to deal with such patterns from a forecasting perspective is to aggregate demand in lower-frequency ‘time buckets’ thereby reducing the presence of zero observations. However, such aggregation may result in losing useful information, as the frequency of observations is reduced. In this paper, we explore the effects of aggregation by investigating 5000 stock keeping units from the Royal Air Force (UK). We are also concerned with the empirical determination of an optimum aggregation level as well as the effects of aggregating demand in time buckets that equal the lead-time length (plus review period). This part of the analysis is of direct relevance to a (periodic) inventory management setting where such cumulative lead-time demand estimates are required. Our study allows insights to be gained into the value of aggregation in an intermittent demand context. The paper concludes with an agenda for further research.     

Fuzzy periodic review system with fuzzy random variable demand

In this paper, a periodic review inventory system has been analyzed in a mixed imprecise and uncertain environment where fuzziness and randomness appear simultaneously. A model has been developed with customer demand assumed to be a fuzzy random variable. The lead-time has been assumed to be a constant. The lead-time demand and the lead-time plus one period’s demand have also been assumed to be fuzzy random variables. A methodology has been developed to determine the optimal inventory level and the optimal period of review such that the total expected annual cost in the fuzzy sense is minimized. A numerical example has been presented to illustrate the model.     

Setup cost reduction in (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Q,r</Emphasis>) policy with lot size,setup time and lead-time interactions

It is often assumed in most deterministic and stochastic inventory models that lead-time is a given parameter and the optimal operating policy is determined on the basis of this unrealistic assumption. However, the manufacturing lead-time is made up of several components (moving time, waiting time, setup time, lot size, and rework time) most of which should be treated as controllable variables. In this paper the effect of setup cost reduction is addressed in a stochastic continuous review inventory system with lead-time depending on lot size and setup time. An efficient iterative procedure is developed to determine the near optimal lot size, reorder point and setup time. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the cost savings that can be realised by investing in setup.     

On a stochastic demand jump inventory model

This paper considers a Quasi-Variational Inequality (QVI) arising from a stochastic demand jump inventory model in a continuous review setting with a fixed ordering cost and where demand is made up of a deterministic part (which is a function of the stock level) punctuated by random jumps. Under some restrictions on the parameters, a solution to the QVI is found which corresponds to an (s,S) policy.     

Integrating inventory control and a price change in the presence of reference price effects: a two-period model

Demand and procurement planning for consumer electronics products must cope with short life cycles, limited replenishment opportunities and a willingness to pay that is influenced by past prices and decreases over time. We therefore propose the use of an integrated pricing and inventory control model with a two-period linear demand model, in which demand also depends on the difference between a price-history-based reference price and the current price. For this model we prove that the optimal joint pricing/inventory policy for the replenishment opportunity after the first period is a base-stock list-price policy. That is, stock is either replenished up to a base-stock level and a list-price is charged, or it is not replenished and a discount is given that increases with the stock-level. Furthermore, we use real-world cell phone data to study the differences between an integrated policy and traditional sequential optimization, where prices are initially optimized based on the expected demand and ordering cost, and the resulting demand distribution is used to determine an optimal inventory policy. Finally, we discuss possible extensions of the model.     

On the tradeoff between optimal order-base-stock levels and demand lead-times

We investigate the tradeoff between finished-goods inventory and advance demand information for a model of a single-stage make-to-stock supplier who uses an order-base-stock replenishment policy to meet customer orders that arrive a fixed demand lead-time in advance of their due-dates. We show that if the replenishment orders arrive in the order that they are placed, then the tradeoff between the optimal order-base-stock level and the demand lead-time is “exhaustive”, in the sense that the optimal order-base-stock level drops all the way to zero if the demand lead-time is sufficiently long. We then provide a sufficient condition under which this tradeoff is linear. We verify that this condition is satisfied for the case where the supply process is modeled as an M/M/1 queue. We also show that the tradeoff between the optimal order-base-stock level and the demand lead-time is linear for the case where the supply process is modeled as an M/D/1 queue. More specifically, for this case, we show that the optimal order-base-stock level decreases by one unit if the demand lead-time increases by an amount equal to the supplier’s constant processing time. Finally, we show that the tradeoff between the optimal order-base-stock level and the demand lead-time is exhaustive but not linear in the case where the supply process is modeled as an M/D/∞ queue. We illustrate these results with a numerical example.     

Periodic control of intermittent demand items: theory and empirical analysis

In this paper we propose a modification to the standard forecasting, periodic order-up-to-level inventory control approach to dealing with intermittent demand items, when the lead-time length is shorter than the average inter-demand interval. In particular, we develop an approach that relies upon the employment of separate estimates of the inter-demand intervals and demand sizes, when demand occurs, directly for stock control purposes rather than first estimating mean demand and then feeding the results in the stock control procedure. The empirical performance of our approach is assessed by means of analysis on a large demand data set from the Royal Air Force (RAF, UK). Our work allows insights to be gained on the interactions between forecasting and stock control as well as on demand categorization-related issues for forecasting and inventory management purposes.     

Multi-item inventory control with full truckloads: A comparison of aggregate and individual order triggering

In this paper, we consider the stochastic joint replenishment problem in an environment where transportation costs are dominant and full truckloads or full container loads are required. One replenishment policy, taking into account capacity restrictions of the total order volume, is the so-called QS policy, where replenishment orders are placed to raise the individual inventory positions of all items to their order-up-to levels, whenever the aggregate inventory position drops below the reorder level. We first provide a method to compute the policy parameters of a QS policy such that item target service levels can be met, under the assumption that demand can be modeled as a compound renewal process. The approximation formulas are based on renewal theory and are tested in a simulation study which reveals good performance. Second, we compare the QS policy with a simple allocation policy where replenishment orders are triggered by the individual inventory positions of the items. At the moment when an individual inventory position drops below its item reorder level, a replenishment order is triggered and the total vehicle capacity is allocated to all items such that the expected elapsed time before the next replenishment order is maximized. In an extensive simulation study it is illustrated that the QS policy outperforms this allocation policy since it results in lower inventory levels for the same service level. Although both policies lead to similar performance if items are identical, it can differ substantially if the item characteristics vary.     

Optimal lateral transshipment policies for a two location inventory problem with multiple demand classes

We consider an inventory model for spare parts with two stockpoints, providing repairable parts for a critical component of advanced technical systems. As downtime costs for these systems are expensive, ready–for–use spare parts are kept in stock to be able to quickly respond to a breakdown of a system. We allow for lateral transshipments of parts between the stockpoints upon a demand arrival. Each stockpoint faces demands from multiple demand classes. We are interested in the optimal lateral transshipment policy. There are three ways in which a demand can by satisfied: from own stock, via a lateral transshipment, or via an emergency procedure. Using stochastic dynamic programming, we characterize and prove the structure of the optimal policy, that is, the policy for satisfying the demands which minimizes the average operating costs of the system. This optimal policy is a threshold type policy, with state-dependent thresholds at each stockpoint for every demand class. We show a partial ordering in these thresholds in the demand classes. In addition, we derive conditions under which the so-called hold back and complete pooling policies are optimal, two policies that are often assumed in the literature. Furthermore, we study several model extensions which fit in the same modeling framework.     

The influence of demand variability on the performance of a make-to-stock queue

Variability, in general, has a deteriorating effect on the performance of stochastic inventory systems. In particular, previous results indicate that demand variability causes a performance degradation in terms of inventory related costs when production capacity is unlimited. In order to investigate the effects of demand variability in capacitated production settings, we analyze a make-to-stock queue with general demand arrival times operated according to a base-stock policy. We show that when demand inter-arrival distributions are ordered in a stochastic sense, increased arrival time variability indeed leads to an augmentation of optimal base-stock levels and to a corresponding increase in optimal inventory related costs. We quantify these effects through several numerical examples.     

Continuous-review inventory problem with random supply interruptions

This paper considers a continuous-review stochastic inventory problem with random demand and random lead-time where supply may be disrupted due to machine breakdowns, strikes or other randomly occurring events. The supplier availability is modelled as a semi-Markov process (more specifically, as an alternating renewal process). The standard (q, r) policy is used when the supplier is available (ON), i.e., when the inventory position reaches the reorder point r, q units are ordered to raise the inventory position to the target level of R = q + r. The form of the policy changes when the supplier becomes unavailable (OFF) in which case orders cannot be placed when the reorder point r is reached. However, as soon as the supplier becomes available again one orders enough to bring the inventory position up to the target level of R. The regenerative cycles are identified by observing the inventory position process. We construct the average cost per time objective function using the renewal reward theorem. It is assumed that the duration of the ON period is E_k (i.e., k-stage Erlangian) and the OFF period is general. In analogy with queuing notation we call this an E_k/G system. By employing the ‘method of stages’, we obtain a problem with a larger state space for the ON/OFF stochastic process; but the resulting ON process can now be analyzed using Markovian techniques. For asymptotic values of q, the objective function assumes a particularly simple form which is shown to be convex under mild restrictions on the density functions of demand. Numerical examples illustrate the results.     

A continuous review replenishment–disposal policy for an inventory system with autonomous supply and fixed disposal costs

In this study, we analyze an inventory system facing stochastic external demands and an autonomous supply (independent return flow) in the presence of fixed disposal costs and positive lead times under a continuous review replenishment–disposal policy. We derive the analytical expressions of the operating characteristics of the system; and, construct the objective function to minimize the total expected costs of ordering, holding, purchasing and disposal per unit time subject to a fill rate constraint. An extensive numerical analysis is conducted to study the sensitivity of the policy parameters and the benefit of employing a policy which allows for disposal of excess stock in this setting. We model the net demand process as the superposition of normally distributed external demand and inflows, which is expressed as a Brownian motion process. Our findings indicate that the disposal option results in considerable savings even (i) in the presence of non-zero fixed disposal costs, (ii) large actual demand rates with high return ratios (resulting in small net demands) and (iii) for moderate return ratios with high demand variability.     

Stock Rationing in a Continuous Review Two-Echelon Inventory Model

In this paper we consider a 1-warehouse, N-retailer inventory system where demand occurs at all locations. We introduce an inventory model which allows us to set different service levels for retailers and direct customer demand at the warehouse. For each retailer a critical level is defined, such that a retailer replenishment order is delivered from warehouse stock if and only if the stock level exceeds this critical level. It is assumed that retailer replenishment orders, which are not satisfied from warehouse stock, are delivered directly from the outside supplier, instead of being backlogged. We present an analytical upper bound on the total cost of the system, and develop a heuristic method to optimize the policy parameters. Numerical experiments indicate that our technique provides a very close approximation of the exact cost. Also, we show that differentiating among the retailers and direct customer demand can yield significant cost reductions.     

Agency selling or reselling: E-tailer information sharing with supplier offline entry

Nowadays, some suppliers are looking for offline expansion in addition to their preexisting online channels relying on e-tailers. This study focuses on the e-tailer’s demand information sharing strategy with the supplier who may build upon brick-and-mortar stores. Both prevailing agreements between the supplier and the e-tailer are investigated: agency selling and reselling. The equilibrium results are quite different under these two agreements. Specifically, when the supplier’s offline entry cost is very small or large, the e-tailer shares information under agency selling while keeps information private under reselling. When the entry cost is intermediate, channel substitution rate is large and information uncertainty is small, the e-tailer withholds the demand information under agency selling while shares information under reselling to deter the supplier from entering an offline channel. Furthermore, two extensions about consumer behavior in multichannel selection are discussed: showrooming and webrooming. With showrooming or webrooming, the e-tailer’s information sharing decisions qualitatively hold, while with showrooming the drive factor behind may change; that is, withholding information under agency selling and sharing information under reselling may also serve as measures to encourage supplier offline entry when the effect of showrooming is strong.     

A simulation of the impacts of dynamic price management for perishable foods on retailer performance in the presence of need-driven purchasing consumers

Numerous studies have investigated dynamic pricing for perishable products. The models have been designed to determine an optimal pricing structure and improve retailer performance. Previous studies on pricing models for perishable products have considered various assumptions of consumer demand and purchasing behaviour from deterministic and stochastic price-dependent demands to myopic and strategic consumer purchasing behaviour. They have not, however, considered consumer demand in reaction to a situation where the display stock of a particular product has different qualities (such as shelf-life) and prices available at the same time. This is particularly applicable in the analysis of dynamic pricing models for perishable foods. In this paper, we investigate the impact of frequency of discount during a product’s selling period on retailer performance, by considering changes in consumer purchasing behaviour in response to the display stock of a particular food product having different remaining shelf-life and prices. On the basis of a literature review and data obtained from interviews with food retailers, a simulation study is performed to compare the performance of different pricing policies. The results demonstrate the benefits gained by adopting more dynamic price policies.