累积logistic回归在后发企业技术能力提升研究中的应用

分析了累积logistic回归模型在后发企业技术能力提升研究中的适用性,并以汽车零部件企业为例进行了实证分析.研究扩展了针对中国的中技术制造业的后发企业技术能力提升的认识,并对后发企业技术能力提升的实证分析方法进行了探讨.研究结论显示:对汽车零部件企业而言,其技术发展模式较封闭,外部知识来源的多寡并不是技术能力提高的重要方式.而内部的研究开发和正式的外部研发合作是提高技术能力的重要来源,企业规模也是影响企业能力提升的重要因素.研究表明该实证分析方法在相关研究中具有可行性.     

Mathematical models of innovation diffusion with stage structure

Mathematical models with stage structures are proposed to describe the process of awareness, evaluation and decision-making. First, a system of ordinary differential equations is presented that incorporates the awareness stage and the decision-making stage. If the adoption rate is bilinear and imitations are dominant, we find a threshold above which innovation diffusion is successful. Further, if the adoption rate has a higher nonlinearity, it is shown that there exist bistable equilibria and a region such that an innovation diffusion is successful inside and is unsuccessful outside. Secondly, a model with a time delay is proposed that includes an evaluation stage of a product. It is proved that the system exhibits stability switches. The bifurcation direction of equilibria is also discussed.     

Efficient partner search: Embedded firms seeking co‐operative partners

This article analyses firms’ efforts to find a suitable partner for a technology cooperation. Although more theoretical studies acknowledge that search costs are an essential part of transaction costs, empirical research on interfirm co‐operation neglects searching. This paper explicitly addresses this lacuna. Hypotheses on the search behavior of firms are derived by applying considerations of transaction cost economics and arguments concerning the social embeddedness of firms to a search model widely used in economics. It is argued that on the one hand the problem potential of co‐operation, which is determined by the co‐operation's volume and the involved relation‐specific investments and uncertainty, affects the benefits a firm can gain from searching. On the other hand, the social embeddedness of a firm influences the costs of searching. Further, I consider the size and homogeneity of the pool of potential partners in the analysis. The derived hypotheses are tested on a dataset of 94 technology cooperations within five Dutch multinationals. The results clearly show that transaction cost economics does explain the search efforts of firms. In addition, I find evidence that the social embeddedness also affects searching.     

Optimum advertising policy over time for subscriber service innovations in the presence of service cost learning and customers’ disadoption

On the theoretical side, this paper characterizes qualitatively optimal advertising policy for new subscriber services. A monopolistic market is analyzed first for which customers’ disadoption, discounting of future profits streams and a service cost learning curve are allowed. After characterizing the optimal policy for a general diffusion model, the results pertaining to a specific diffusion model for which advertising affects the coefficient of innovation that incorporates the disadoption rate are reported. The results of the theoretical research show that the advertising policy of the service firm in the presence of customers’ disadoption could be very different from the same when disadoption is ignored.On the empirical side, four alternative diffusion models are estimated and their predictive powers using a one-step-ahead forecasting procedure compared. The diffusion data analyzed are related to the Canadian cable TV industry. Empirical research findings suggest that the specific diffusion model considered above is not only of theoretical appeal but also of major empirical relevance.The analytical findings of the study are documented in six theoretical propositions for which proofs are provided in a separate Appendix. The results of a related numerical experiment together with the analytical findings pertaining to the competitive role of advertising are included. Managerial implications of the study together with directions for future research are also discussed.     

Estimating output targets to evaluate output-specific efficiencies: A statistical framework

This paper presents a statistical framework for estimating output-specific efficiencies for the 2-output case based upon a DEA frontier estimate. The key to this approach are estimated output targets, which are used to identify proper reference points for efficiency comparisons. Being usually unobserved, output targets of firms are modelled as missing data and estimated jointly with output-specific efficiencies. The involved likelihood function is analytically intractable, so a data augmented Bayesian approach is proposed for estimation and adapted to the present purpose. Some implementation issues are discussed leading to an empirical Bayes setup with data informed priors. A prove of scale invariance is provided.     

Agent-based simulation of innovation diffusion: a review

Mathematical modeling of innovation diffusion has attracted strong academic interest since the early 1960s. Traditional diffusion models have aimed at empirical generalizations and hence describe the spread of new products parsimoniously at the market level. More recently, agent-based modeling and simulation has increasingly been adopted since it operates on the individual level and, thus, can capture complex emergent phenomena highly relevant in diffusion research. Agent-based methods have been applied in this context both as intuition aids that facilitate theory-building and as tools to analyze real-world scenarios, support management decisions and obtain policy recommendations. This review addresses both streams of research. We critically examine the strengths and limitations of agent-based modeling in the context of innovation diffusion, discuss new insights agent-based models have provided, and outline promising opportunities for future research. The target audience of the paper includes both researchers in marketing interested in new findings from the agent-based modeling literature and researchers who intend to implement agent-based models for their own research endeavors. Accordingly, we also cover pivotal modeling aspects in depth (concerning, e.g., consumer adoption behavior and social influence) and outline existing models in sufficient detail to provide a proper entry point for researchers new to the field.     

Hopf bifurcation analysis in a multiple delayed innovation diffusion model with Holling II functional response

A nonlinear mathematical model with Holling II functional response describing the dynamics of nonadopter and adopters population in a stage structured innovation diffusion model, which incorporates the evaluation stage (multiple delays), is proposed. Firstly, we study the stability and the existence of periodic solutions via Hopf bifurcation with respect to both delays at the positive equilibrium by analyzing the distribution of the roots of the corresponding exponential characteristic equation obtained through the variational matrix. The direction of the Hopf bifurcation and the stability of the bifurcating periodic solutions are determined with the help of normal form theory and center manifold theorem. Meanwhile, various cases are discussed to examine the effect of different delays on the stability of delayed innovation diffusion system and are also established numerically. It is also observed that the cumulative density of external influences has a significant role in developing maturity stage (adoption stage) in the system. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to support and supplement the analytical findings.     

Impact of artificial intelligence investment on firm value

As artificial intelligence (AI) has recently gained momentum and attention, the interest and investment in AI have also accelerated. However, the impact of AI on firm value is rarely discussed. On the basis of the 119 announcements of 62 listed firms who have invested in AI, this study finds that AI investment has a negative impact on the firms’ market value. The stock prices of the firms decrease by 1.77% on the day of the announcement. Nonmanufacturing firms and firms with weak information technology capabilities or low credit ratings suffer a more negative impact compared with other firms. The findings suggest that investors perceive AI investment announcements to be unwelcome news for the majority of firms. Subsequently, the characteristics affecting the shareholders’ reaction towards AI adoption are presented. This research offers one of the first empirical evidence about the market value of AI and provides a reference for firms interested in investing in AI.

     

Agent-behaviour and network influence on energy innovation diffusion

An agent-based model is developed for investigating the role of individual behaviour and network influence on energy innovation diffusion. Behaviour is based on how agents value specific attributes of a technology, and network effects are disaggregated into indirect influence through exposure to a larger population, and direct influence through personal contacts. We find that network influence can have a positive effect on accelerating the diffusion of new energy innovations, but can be counteracted by risk adverse behaviour. Combined direct and indirect network effects can have as strong an influence on adoption behaviour as personal preferences. Interestingly, we find that indirect influence from the larger population can have a greater effect than direct personal contacts on an individual. This implies a feedback between population and sub-population level signals on adoption behaviour which warrants further exploration as a mechanism to induce individual level change.     

多元技术创新扩散的系统动力学模型及仿真

本文力图放宽模型的假设,考虑创新技术市场间的非独立性、扩散过程中潜在采用-等待采用-已采用三阶段中时间延迟性,建立多元技术创新扩散的系统动力学模型,并用Vensim进行模拟仿真研究.仿真结果表明该模型比较符合实际,可为多元技术创新扩散的理论研究和实际实施提供理论指导.     

多企业竞争条件下的产品创新扩散研究

产品创新扩散中,生产同类产品的企业相互竞争,实力不同的企业在产品生命周期的不同阶段会采取不同的扩散策略.以往的研究多是基于单个企业或两个企业,其模型难以扩展或推广,具有很大的局限性.本文分析多个企业竞争条件下的产品创新扩散,通过建模和求解,对结果进行分析和讨论,为实践提供一些启示.     

Initiating a state of the art system for real-time supply chain coordination

Intelligent Wireless Web (IWW) employs the capabilities of high speed wireless networks and exploits the parallel advancements in Internet-based technologies such as the Semantic Web, Web Services, Agent-based Technologies, and context awareness. Considering its great potentials to be applied in business systems, we have devised an innovative model, based on the IWW services, for a typical mobile real-time supply chain coordination system which has been developed and tested in a real operational environment. Our article investigates the proposed system in this way: at the start, the building blocks of the IWW are discussed in detail. Then, we fully explain the basic concepts of mobile real-time supply chain coordination and concentrate on the motivations to implement such a modern system. The vision of intelligent wireless web services, as discussed in this paper, centers on the need to provide mobile supply chain members highly specific data and services in real-time on an as-needed basis, with the flexibility of use for the user. In this regard, we investigate nine enabling technologies of the IWW for our system and discuss how, by exploiting the convergence and synergy between different technologies, it has become possible to deliver intelligent wireless web support to mobile real-time supply chain coordination. Afterwards, a practical framework is clearly established in four phases. This initiative system has been implemented in the laboratory and has passed the evaluation processes successfully. Further details will be announced in near future in another research article.     

A location–allocation problem for a web services provider in a competitive market

Web Services have become a viable component technology in distributed e-commerce platforms. Due to the move to high-speed Internet communication and tremendous increases in computing power, network latency has begun to play a more important role in determining service response time. Hence, the locations of a Web Services provider’s facilities, customer allocation, and the number of servers at each facility have a significant impact on its performance and customer satisfaction. In this paper we introduce a location–allocation model for a Web Services provider in a duopoly competitive market. Demands for services of these servers are available at each node of a network, and a subset of nodes is to be chosen to locate one or more servers in each. The objective is to maximize the provider’s profit. The problem is formulated and analyzed. An exact solution approach is developed and the results of its efficiency are reported.     

基于演化博弈的制造企业服务创新扩散研究

制造企业服务化是我国实现制造强国的必经之路,本文以“中国制造2025”战略为背景,通过借鉴创新扩散和演化博弈理论,对社会系统中参与服务创新的相关主体进行分析,构建政府与企业之间演化博弈模型,结合并改进Bass经典创新扩散模型,探究政府规制行为对企业服务创新行为演化及扩散的影响,利用Matlab对复制动态方程和扩散模型进行数学推导和数值仿真分析。结果表明:当满足政府的社会总收益大于其调控成本和各项补贴总额且企业选择服务创新策略时收益的额外增加额大于其实际投入时,系统才会演化至政府调控且企业采纳服务创新的稳定状态;适当增加政府对企业的调控力度、投入补贴和税收补贴有助于推进服务创新在系统中的扩散,其中税收补贴的感知能力最强,投入补贴最弱;将抑制系数引入Bass创新扩散模型,构建互补型、竞争型和替代型三种服务创新的扩散模式,其中竞争型扩散符合中国现阶段市场规律,替代性扩散将成为未来制造企业的发展趋势。     

面向战略型消费者的产品创新与定价策略

考虑垄断制造商面向战略型消费者时的产品创新与定价问题。运用消费者效用理论和博弈论等方法,构建静态和动态定价下制造商和消费者两期决策模型并求解分析。结果表明,消费者是否购买以及何时购买产品取决于升级换代产品的价格阈值。与静态定价相比较,动态定价能使制造商获得更多期望收益,但会降低消费者剩余、弱化制造商的产品创新积极性,并且这种弱化现象在产品价值折扣系数较高的情况下尤为明显。战略消费者购买行为对制造商的产品创新、期望收益和消费者剩余的影响,不仅依赖于制造商选择何种定价策略,还取决于产品价值折扣系数的大小。研究结论为消费者的产品购买和升级换代提供了理论建议,为企业的产品创新和定价提供了决策参考。