ARMA(1,1)需求条件下供应链需求提前承诺的影响效果分析

为了分析供应链需求提前承诺的影响效果,考虑供应链所面临的顾客需求满足ARMA（1,1）过程。首先从理论上建立正常顾客需求与顾客需求提前承诺时零售商订单量波动程度和平均库存的定量描述模型,通过两种情形下的比较分析,得出在顾客需求自回归系数大于零时,顾客需求提前承诺将减小牛鞭效应和平均库存水平;同时得出在顾客需求提前承诺时,如果顾客需求自回归系数大于零,顾客提前承诺的需求比例越高,则牛鞭效应和平均库存水平越低;顾客需求提前承诺的时间跨度越长,则牛鞭效应和平均库存水平也越低。反之亦然。其次运用仿真方法分析了顾客需求提前承诺对零售商平均库存成本的影响,得出在顾客需求自回归系数大于零时,顾客需求提前承诺将有效降低零售商的平均库存成本。     

Performance bound for myopic order-up-to inventory policies under stationary demand processes

We consider a single-item infinite-horizon inventory system operating in discrete time and study the performance of the popular myopic order-up-to policy when demand is driven by a general autoregressive moving average (ARMA) stationary process. We derive a suboptimality bound for a system that operates under full demand backlogging, linear holding and backordering costs, and a constant replenishment lead time. We illustrate our results for the case in which demand follows an ARMA(1,1) process, which includes two commonly used demand models, MA(1) and AR(1), as special cases.     

The Effects of Demand-Forecast Fluctuations on Customer Service and Inventory Cost When Demand is Lumpy

This paper examines the interactions between the demand forecasting and reordering subsystems in inventory management. Simulation is used to study the average discrepancy between a desired customer service level and that actually achieved, and the increase in average annual inventory cost resulting from fluctuations in the forecast demand parameters of several lumpy demand patterns.     

Modeling and analysis of the causes of bullwhip effect in centralized and decentralized supply chain using response surface method

The “bullwhip” effect is a major cause of supply chain deficiencies. This phenomenon refers to grow the amplification of demand or inventory variability as it moves up the supply chain. Supply chain managers experience this variance amplification in both inventory levels and orders. Other side, dampening variance in orders may have a negative impact on customer service due to the increase in the inventory variance. This paper with simulating a three stage supply chains consisting of a single retailer, single wholesaler and single manufacturer under both centralized and decentralized chains. In this paper, it is intended to analysis the causes of bullwhip effect from two dimensions of order and inventory variance using the response surface methodology. The results show that in both supply chains, rationing factor is considered as the least important cause of bullwhip effect. While the wholesaler’s order batching and the chain’s order batching are considered as the main causes for the bullwhip effect in the decentralized and centralized chains, respectively.     

A measure of bullwhip effect in supply chains with a mixed autoregressive-moving average demand process

In this paper, we quantify the impact of the bullwhip effect – the phenomenon in which information on demand is distorted as moving up a supply chain – for a simple two-stage supply chain with one supplier and one retailer. Assuming that the retailer employs a base stock inventory policy, and that the demand forecast is performed via a mixed autoregressive-moving average model, ARMA(1, 1), we investigate the effects of the autoregressive coefficient, the moving average parameter, and the lead time on the bullwhip effect.     

The bullwhip effect in supply chain networks

This paper analyzes the propagation and amplification of order fluctuations (i.e., the bullwhip effect) in supply chain networks operated with linear and time-invariant inventory management policies. The supply chain network is allowed to include multiple customers (e.g., markets), any network structure, with or without sharing information. The paper characterizes the stream of orders placed by any supplier for any stationary customer demand processes, and gives exact formulas for the variance of the orders placed and the amplification of order fluctuations. The paper also derives robust analytical conditions, based only on inventory management policies, to predict the presence of the bullwhip effect for any network structure, any inventory replenishment policies, and arbitrary customer demand processes. Numerical examples show that the analytical results accurately quantify the bullwhip effect; managerial insights are drawn from the analysis. The methodology presented in this paper generalizes those in previous studies for serial supply chains.     

具有两类需求服务的随机库存系统控制策略研究

研究具有两类顾客排队需求服务的随机库存系统.系统采取(s,Q)补货策略且当库存水平下降到安全库存s时,到达的第二类顾客以概率P得到服务.首先,建立库存水平状态转移方程并通过递推算法求解获得库存水平稳态概率分布和系统稳态指标;接下来,构建库存成本函数;最后,采用数值试验的方法研究该库存系统的最优控制策略并考察系统参数的敏感性.     

Multi-source facility location–allocation and inventory problem

We consider a joint facility location–allocation and inventory problem that incorporates multiple sources of warehouses. The problem is motivated by a real situation faced by a multinational applied chemistry company. In this problem, multiple products are produced in several plants. Warehouse can be replenished by several plants together because of capabilities and capacities of plants. Each customer in this problem has stochastic demand and certain amount of safety stock must be maintained in warehouses so as to achieve certain customer service level. The problem is to determine number and locations of warehouses, allocation of customers demand and inventory levels of warehouses. The objective is to minimize the expected total cost with the satisfaction of desired demand weighted average customer lead time and desired cycle service level. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer nonlinear programming model. Utilizing approximation and transformation techniques, we develop an iterative heuristic method for the problem. An experiment study shows that the proposed procedure performs well in comparison with a lower bound.     

Stock Rationing in a Continuous Review Two-Echelon Inventory Model

In this paper we consider a 1-warehouse, N-retailer inventory system where demand occurs at all locations. We introduce an inventory model which allows us to set different service levels for retailers and direct customer demand at the warehouse. For each retailer a critical level is defined, such that a retailer replenishment order is delivered from warehouse stock if and only if the stock level exceeds this critical level. It is assumed that retailer replenishment orders, which are not satisfied from warehouse stock, are delivered directly from the outside supplier, instead of being backlogged. We present an analytical upper bound on the total cost of the system, and develop a heuristic method to optimize the policy parameters. Numerical experiments indicate that our technique provides a very close approximation of the exact cost. Also, we show that differentiating among the retailers and direct customer demand can yield significant cost reductions.     

An integrated production and inventory model to dampen upstream demand variability in the supply chain

We consider a two-echelon supply chain: a single retailer holds a finished goods inventory to meet an i.i.d. customer demand, and a single manufacturer produces the retailer’s replenishment orders on a make-to-order basis. In this setting the retailer’s order decision has a direct impact on the manufacturer’s production. It is a well known phenomenon that inventory control policies at the retailer level often propagate customer demand variability towards the manufacturer, sometimes even in an amplified form (known as the bullwhip effect). The manufacturer, however, prefers to smooth production, and thus he prefers a smooth order pattern from the retailer. At first sight a decrease in order variability comes at the cost of an increased variance of the retailer’s inventory levels, inflating the retailer’s safety stock requirements. However, integrating the impact of the retailer’s order decision on the manufacturer’s production leads to new insights. A smooth order pattern generates shorter and less variable (production/replenishment) lead times, introducing a compensating effect on the retailer’s safety stock. We show that by including the impact of the order decision on lead times, the order pattern can be smoothed to a considerable extent without increasing stock levels. This leads to a situation where both parties are better off.     

The effect of information sharing on supply chain stability and the bullwhip effect

This paper analyzes the bullwhip effect in multi-stage supply chains operated with linear and time-invariant inventory management policies and shared supply chain information. Such information includes past order sequences and inventory records at all supplier stages. The paper characterizes the stream of orders placed at any stage of the chain when the customer demand process is known and ergodic, and gives an exact formula for the variance of the orders placed. The paper also derives robust analytical conditions, based only on inventory management policies, to predict the presence of the bullwhip effect and bound its magnitude. These results hold independently of the customer demand. The general framework proposed in this paper allows for any inventory replenishment policies, any ways of sharing and utilizing information, and any customer demand processes. It is also shown as a special case that sharing customer demand information across the chain significantly reduces, but does not completely eliminate, the bullwhip effect.     

Lost-sales inventory systems with a service level criterion

Competitive retail environments are characterized by service levels and lost sales in case of excess demand. We contribute to research on lost-sales models with a service level criterion in multiple ways. First, we study the optimal replenishment policy for this type of inventory system as well as base-stock policies and (R, s, S) policies. Furthermore, we derive lower and upper bounds on the order-up-to level, and we propose efficient approximation procedures to determine the order-up-to level. The procedures find values of the inventory control variables that are close to the best (R, s, S) policy and comply to the service level restriction for most of the instances, with an average cost increase of 2.3% and 1.2% for the case without and with fixed order costs, respectively.     

Approximate analysis and optimization of batch ordering policies in capacitated supply chains

Devising manufacturing/distribution strategies for supply chains and determining their parameter values have been challenging problems. Linking production management to stock keeping processes improves the planning of the supply chain activities, including material management, culminating in improved customer service levels. In this study, we investigate a multi-echelon supply chain consisting of a supplier, a plant, a distribution center and a retailer. Material flow between stages is driven by reorder point/order quantity inventory control policies. We develop a model to analyze supply chain behavior using some key performance metrics such as the time averages of inventory and backorder levels, as well as customer service levels at each echelon. The model is validated against simulation, yielding good agreement of robust performance metrics. The metrics are then used within an optimization framework to design the supply chain so as to minimize expected total system costs. The outcome of the optimization framework specifies how to move inventory throughout the supply chain and how to set inventory control parameters, i.e., reorder levels and replenishment batch sizes.     

Customer differentiated end-of-life inventory problem

This paper deals with the service parts end-of-life inventory problem in a circumstance that demands for service parts are differentiated. Customer differentiation might be due to criticality of the demand or based on various service contracts. In both cases, we model the problem as a finite horizon stochastic dynamic program and characterize the structure of the optimal inventory policy. We show that when customers are differentiated based on the demand criticality then the optimal structure consists of time and state dependent threshold levels for inventory rationing. In case of differentiation based on service contracts, we show that in addition to rationing thresholds we also need contract extension thresholds by which the system decides whether to offer an extension to an expiring contract or not. By numerical experiments in both cases, we identify the value of incorporating such decisions in service parts end-of-life inventory management with customer differentiation. Moreover, we show that these decisions not only result in cost efficiency but also decrease the risk of part obsolescence drastically.     

An inventory sharing and allocation method for a multi-location service parts logistics network with time-based service levels

We consider a model to allocate stock levels at warehouses in a service parts logistics network. The network is a two-echelon distribution system with one central warehouse with infinite capacity and a number of local warehouses, each facing Poisson demands from geographically dispersed customers. Each local warehouse uses a potentially different base stock policy. The warehouses are collectively required to satisfy time-based service targets: Certain percentages of overall demand need to be satisfied from facilities within specified time windows. These service levels not only depend on the distance between customers and the warehouses, but also depend on the part availabilities at the warehouses. Moreover, the warehouses share their inventory as a way to increase achieved service levels, i.e., when a local warehouse is out of stock, demand is satisfied with an emergency shipment from another close-by warehouse. Observing that the problem of finding minimum-cost stock levels is an integer non-linear program, we develop an implicit enumeration-based method which adapts an existing inventory sharing model from the literature, prioritizes the warehouses for emergency shipments, and makes use of a lower bound. The results show that the proposed inventory sharing strategy results in considerable cost reduction when compared to the no-sharing case and the method is quite efficient for the considered test problems.     

On the value of customer information for an independent supplier in a continuous review inventory system

We consider the inventory control problem of an independent supplier in a continuous review system. The supplier faces demand from a single customer who in turn faces Poisson demand and follows a continuous review (R, Q) policy. If no information about the inventory levels at the customer is available, reviews and ordering are usually carried out by the supplier only at points in time when a customer demand occurs. It is common to apply an installation stock reorder point policy. However, as the demand faced by the supplier is not Markovian, this policy can be improved by allowing placement of orders at any point in time. We develop a time delay policy for the supplier, wherein the supplier waits until time t after occurrence of the customer demand to place his next order. If the next customer demand occurs before this time delay, then the supplier places an order immediately. We develop an algorithm to determine the optimal time delay policy. We then evaluate the value of information about the customer’s inventory level. Our numerical study shows that if the supplier were to use the optimal time delay policy instead of the installation stock policy then the value of the customer’s inventory information is not very significant.     

On two-echelon inventory systems with Poisson demand and lost sales

We consider a two-echelon, continuous review inventory system under Poisson demand and a one-for-one replenishment policy. Demand is lost if no items are available at the local warehouse, the central depot, or in the pipeline in between. We give a simple, fast and accurate approach to approximate the service levels in this system. In contrast to other methods, we do not need an iterative analysis scheme. Our method works very well for a broad set of cases, with deviations to simulation below 0.1% on average and below 0.36% for 95% of all test instances.     

Estimation and Design of Sampling Plans for Monitoring Dependent Production Processes

We consider the problem of designing single and the double sampling plans for monitoring dependent production processes. Based on simulated samples from the process, Nelson proposed a new approach of estimating the characteristics of single sampling plans and, using these estimates, designing optimal plans. In this paper, we extend his approach to the design of optimal double sampling plans. We first propose a simple methodology for obtaining the unbiased estimators of various characteristics of single and double sampling plans. This is achieved by defining the various characteristics of sampling plans as explicit random variables. Some of the important properties of the double sampling plans are established. Using these results, an efficient algorithm is developed to obtain optimal double sampling plans. A comparison with a crude search shows that our algorithm leads to about 90% savings, on the average, in computational timings. The procedure is also explained through a suitable example for the ARMA(1,1) model. It is observed, for instance, that an optimal double sampling plan leads to about 23% reduction in average sample number, compared to an optimal single sampling plan. Tables for choosing the optimal plans for certain auto regressive moving average processes at some practically useful values of acceptable quality level and rejectable quality level are also presented.     

Branch and price for the vehicle routing problem with discrete split deliveries and time windows

The Discrete Split Delivery Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows (DSDVRPTW) consists of designing the optimal set of routes to serve, at least cost, a given set of customers while respecting constraints on vehicles’ capacity and customer time windows. Each customer can be visited by more than one vehicle since each customer’s demand, discretized in items, can be split in orders, i.e., feasible combinations of items. In this work, we model the DSDVRPTW assuming that all feasible orders are known in advance. Remarkably, service time at customer’s location depends on the delivered combination of items, which is a modeling feature rarely found in literature. We present a flow-based mixed integer program for the DSDVRPTW, we reformulate it via Dantzig-Wolfe and we apply column generation. The proposed branch-and-price algorithm largely outperforms a commercial solver, as shown by computational experiments on Solomon-based instances. A comparison in terms of complexity between constant service time vs delivery-dependent service time is presented and potential savings are discussed.     

Inventory control by different service levels

This paper examines the multiple period inventory control problem of a single product with multiple (two) prices, depending on service level, in which optimal pricing and ordering decisions are made in each period. Traditional inventory and pricing models consider only single products, single prices, and single service levels. However, this research paper finds that a seller can improve inventory control and revenue by offering multiple prices depending on service level. This research considers a single product with multiple (two) pricing policies corresponding to service level as follows: if the customer is willing to delay the shipment, he/she will be offered a lower regular price. Otherwise, the customer will pay the regular price plus extra charges for express service. In this paper, I show the following: (1) there is an optimal pricing and replenishment policy that can control inventory and (2) there exists a finite threshold for inventory levels such that if the inventory level at the beginning of each period is higher than the threshold, the customer will be offered the express service at the regular price, without any extra charge.