基于政府政策规制的众包物流定价策略研究

考虑政府对众包物流市场采取激励性政策和约束性政策,基于不同的市场结构,以众包物流平台利润最大化为目标,构建政府政策规制的平台最优定价模型,运用最优化方法求解平台最优定价,最后利用数值分析对相关结论进行验证。研究结果表明：在垄断型市场结构下,当政府采取激励性政策时,平台定价随用户间交叉网络外部性的增加而增加;当政府采取约束性政策时,平台定价与政府限制力度负相关,平台定价随政府限制力度的增强而降低。在竞争型市场结构下,当政府采取激励性政策时,平台定价随平台服务差异化系数的增加而降低;当政府采取约束性政策时,平台定价随政府限制力度的增强呈先增后降的趋势。     

Lattice Boltzmann Study on the Motion of Dual Droplets in Microchannels With Contact Angle Hysteresis北大核心CSCD

接触角滞后表现为流体在非理想固体表面上运动时前进接触角和后退接触角不同,是两相流体在润湿表面上流动的重要现象.该文采用改进的伪势格子Boltzmann(LB)多组分模型,并与几何润湿边界条件相结合,研究了两个液滴在具有接触角滞后性微通道表面上的运动行为,主要研究了通道内特征数、通道表面性质以及液滴初始参数的影响.研究结果表明：毛细数的增大有助于液滴的移动,然而并不利于液滴的排出,且毛细数的增加对上游液滴的影响大于其对下游液滴的影响;另一方面,接触角滞后性窗口越大,液滴运动和形变更迟缓,但形变程度更明显,两液滴更早地发生合并,但更晚地排出管道;液滴间距的增加使液滴的运动行为在不同阶段表现为不同的模式,但都导致通道中残留小液滴,使得液滴排出通道的时间增加.研究结果还表明：上游液滴和下游液滴的相对尺寸差距越大,越不利于液滴排出管道.     

Riemannian Submersions with Discrete Spectrum

We prove some estimates on the spectrum of the Laplacian of the total space of a Riemannian submersion in terms of the spectrum of the Laplacian of the base and the geometry of the fibers. When the fibers of the submersions are compact and minimal, we prove that the spectrum of the Laplacian of the total space is discrete if and only if the spectrum of the Laplacian of the base is discrete. When the fibers are not minimal, we prove a discreteness criterion for the total space in terms of the relative growth of the mean curvature of the fibers and the mean curvature of the geodesic spheres in the base. We discuss in particular the case of warped products.     

企业污染减排过程中的政企合谋问题研究

考虑到污染物动态变化的影响,本文构建连续时间内地方政府和污染企业之间的Stackelberg微分博弈模型,对企业污染减排过程中的政企合谋问题进行研究。研究表明:地方政府和排污企业的合谋程度与地方政府的GDP偏好成正相关,与环境绩效的考核比重成负相关;不同的环境负责制对政企合谋的影响方向相反:任期负责制增强了地方政府的合谋动机,而终身负责制可有效地抑制地方政府的合谋动机;中央政府提高监督力度和惩罚成本系数增加了地方政府与企业的合谋成本,是抑制政企合谋的外在约束。为抑制政企合谋,应转变以GDP为核心的单维扭曲机制,推进建立生态环境终身负责制;积极引导社会第三方的环境参与,弥补中央政府环境监管的不足;多元化惩罚手段,将经济惩罚和政治惩罚相结合,提高地方政府和企业的合谋成本。     

商业银行操作风险计量模型的Bayes估计

对于商业银行来讲,一个很重要的问题是损失数据缺乏,而损失数据缺乏会影响模型参数的估计,用Bayes估计解决了这一问题.Bayes估计的方法利用商业银行专家提供的意见确定先验分布,能够有效地解决损失数据缺乏的问题.实证分析的结果表明,Bayes估计与极大似然估计的结果.不考虑存在着一定的差距.不考虑各部分风险之间的相关性,基于Bayes估计与极大似然估计时VaR与ES的大部分结果相差不大.     

P2P网贷违约人是否具有区域性特征——来自湖南省的例证

借助网络爬虫技术手段获取"人人贷"平台上借款人的各项信息,提取两个样本:分为全国随机样本和湖南省随机样本,构建二元Logit回归模型,分析其中对违约率有显著影响的变量.研究表明,负债收入比、借款期限、学历、房产、房贷、描述指数对违约行为有负向影响,而借款利率、车产、认证个数对借款者违约行为有正向影响.同时,通过对两个样本最终回归模型的比较,发现湖南省违约人特征与全国随机样本中体现的违约人特征基本一致,但其中较为特殊的是,在湖南拥有房产和车产不能作为网络借款人履约能力提升的标志.     

论修正的Castigliano定理

本文给出了修正的Castigliano定理,与经典的Castigliano定理相比较,修正的Castigliano定理应用方便而且广泛。对经典Castigliano定理的修正是在两个方面,第一个修正是以外载荷与影响函数乘积的表达式代替经典Castigliano定理中余能密度对集中力偏导数的表达式,这一修正为我们在复杂载荷作用下的计算带来极大的简便;第二个修正是在经典Castigliano定理中引入了非齐次边界位移与影响函数乘积的表达式,这一修正为求解复杂边界条件的问题提供了理论基础。我们还说明了如何应用修正的Castigliano定理求解表面结构力学问题的方法。最后,作为修正的Castigliano定理的应用算例,我们求解了两邻边固定另两邻边自由的矩形板的挠曲面方程。     

物体垂直出入水的非定常空泡数学模型

研究了物体从水下向水面高速运动产生的非定常垂直空泡,建立了出水垂直空泡的数学模型,得到了匀速、空泡压力不变条件下的空泡外形、长度、体积随水深变化的解析解,给出了出水通气空泡发展为超空泡的条件．利用类似的方法建立了水平空泡和入水空泡的数学模型,并对3种空泡进行了比较研究．比较研究的结论是,随物体距水面的水深减小,出水空泡体积自身有增大趋势,空泡不容易发生泄气现象．且要保持出水空泡压力不变,空泡内的气体含量就应该增加（可通过人工通气方式）．入水空泡正好相反,随物体入水深度增加,空泡体积自身有收缩的趋势,并挤压空泡内的气体从环境压力较低的空泡尾部喷射而出,导致空泡内的气体含量减少,空泡压力降低．但是当空泡压力低于环境压力后,空泡尾部又将被环境高压所封闭,气体喷射不出来．随着入水深度继续增加,空泡尾部将重复上述过程,形成周期性的喷射 封闭 喷射 封闭的脉动过程,这个脉动喷射过程将在空泡尾部的流体中形成一连串小气泡,并由于空泡内的压力波动而导致空泡形状发生波动现象．     

历史订单信息对牛鞭效应的影响分析

客户需求信息的失真是导致牛鞭效应存在的原因,基于零售商的历史订单数据对其需求进行预测可以部分消除牛鞭效应。论文基于零售商-分销商二级供应链视角,分析了在零售商的需求为线性自回归模式的二级供应链中,分销商利用零售商历史订单数据和现有订单数据进行需求预测时自身库存成本的变更以及整个供应链的牛鞭效应的缓解程度。结果表明:分销商利用历史订单数据进行库存的决策可以显著地降低自己的平均库存和需求的波动,这种降低程度在零售商的订货提前期较大的情况下比较明显,但是零售商的需求预测相关系数对它影响不大。     

Seepage of a gas condensate mixture when using the geoloosening method

The problem of the seepage of a two-phase multicomponent hydrocarbon mixture for evaluating the efficiency of the use of the geoloosening method in gas condensate deposits is considered. The geoloosening method is a technology for increasing the productivity of wells, developed at the Institute of Problems in Mechanics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and it ensures an increase in the permeability of the critical zone of a well because of directed relief of the stratum. The initiation of the geoloosening process requires the creation of deep depressions at the well bottom and, as a result, there is an accumulation of retrograde condensate in the neighbourhood of the well, which leads to a decrease in the phase permeability with respect to the gas. It is necessary to take account of the existence of these two processes, which are mutually counter directed from the point of view of the change in permeability, when this method is used for gas condensate deposits. Due to the change in the chemical composition of the mixture in the condensation process and the action of capillary forces, the gas content at each point and each instant is not the equilibrium content and, consequently, cannot be directly determined from the phase diagram of the substance. A differential scheme is used to describe the seepage of the mixture, according to which, unlike an integral scheme, the relation for the transition into the liquid phase is specified for increments and not for the pressure and volume values themselves. Numerical calculations of the steady seepage of a hydrocarbon mixture are carried out for the necessary depression levels for the conditions in the Astrakhan gas condensate deposit and the effectiveness of the use of the geoloosening method there is demonstrated.     

基于综合重要度的动车组多部件系统机会维修策略研究

针对我国动车组列车现行维修方式,提出基于综合重要度序列的动车组多部件系统机会维修策略,对提高系统可靠度贡献大的关键部件进行准时优先维修。建立部件综合重要度指数计算模型,并依据其对部件维修优先级进行排序。以维修总成本最低为目标计算单部件最优维修周期及时刻,以系统维修总成本最低为目标,以关键部件的维修时刻为系统停机时刻建立考虑重要度的多部件系统机会维修模型。算例选取某型动车组四级修时更换的四部件系统为研究对象,讨论机会维修里程窗的大小及其偏移量对维修效果的影响,对比结果表明,考虑综合重要度的机会维修策略能够在维修费用基本持平的条件下,保证对系统可靠性贡献大的关键部件的可靠性,进而保证系统的整体可靠性。     

明渠层流失稳与沙纹成因机理研究

动床水流中,泥沙起动之后,往往要出现沙纹,沙纹成因各家的解释不一。白玉川,罗纪生的观点是:沙纹的尺度较小,主要是由于明渠层流不稳定性波或床面近壁流层中小尺度拟序结构发展演化所致。当床面边界附近扰动波或拟序结构以及水流自身所产生的床面底部切应力大于Shields切应力后,床面即产生响应,形成沙纹;如果扰动所产生的扰动切应力频率接近床面泥沙固有频率,则产生与泥沙颗粒的共振,这种现象也称之为“泥沙的检波性质”,此时床面发生最大响应,沙纹发展速度也最快。     

An axisymmetric model of the Mush-Chimney system

We develop a model of the mush-chimney system based on the assumption that the order of magnitude of the vertical velocity component in the chimney is much greater than the speed of upward advance of the mush, and making use of the fact that the radius of chimney is much less than the (dimensionless) thickness of the mush. We determine the fluid flow structure in the chimney by utilizing the knowledge of the mass fraction of light constituent, the vertical velocity component, and the pressure that are obtained from the mush. We find a relation between a parameter measuring the ratio of viscous and buoyancy forces in the chimney and the vertical velocity component on the top of the mush, and estimate numerically the value of this velocity.     

Dispositif d'éclatement commandé des diaphragmes associé à un tube à ondes de choc pour générateur magnétohydrodynamique

Summary In the experimental device, the MHD generator receives the current from a gas in the shock tube. This gas, argon, heated beforehand to 1200°C and seeded with alkaline metal (potassium), is brought to the pseudoplasma state under the influence of a shock wave. This wave is obtained by means of a membrane and a driving gas (helium). The use of a pulsed magnetic field at the level of the MHD generator makes a time delay necessary between the beginning of the discharge of the condensers, the source of energy which has to create the pulsed magnetic field, and the rupture of the membrane producing the shock wave (the rise time of the magnetic field is longer than the travelling time of the shock wave from the membrane to the entrance of the generator).A projectile shot along the axis of the tube and behind the membrane which is suitably scratched and near rupture under the influence of the helium pressure, will insure its rupture without disturbing the flow in the tube. The passage of this projectile is detected behind the membrane by a photo-electric cell. The signal obtained triggers the discharge of the condensers in such a way that the arrival of the shock wave in the generator coincides with the beginning of the peak of the magnetic field.The projectile is propelled by a compressed gas pistol operating under varible pressure which makes it possible to adjust the time delay to within ±0.2 millisecond.     

完整Coriolis力作用下的非线性近惯性波

从包含有完整Coriolis力作用下的大气运动原始基本方程组出发,通过尺度分析,采用多重尺度法及摄动展开法,推导了中高纬大气非线性近惯性波振幅演化所满足的Korteweg-de Vries方程.从演化方程的结果可以看出Coriolis参数水平分量对非线性近惯性波的影响,主要体现为对频散效应的修正及与基本流的相互作用.从理论上解释了完整Coriolis力作用下的中高纬地区大气非线性近惯性波运动的物理机制.     

一类疾病在食饵中传播的生态-传染病模型分析

分析并建立疾病在食饵中传播的生态-传染病模型,且考虑易感食饵具有常数输入,捕食者种群以Logistic模型增长,讨论了系统解的有界性和各平衡点的存在性,以及局部渐近稳定性,通过构造适当的Lyapunov函数分析了各平衡点的全局渐近稳定性,并运用比较定理证明了系统的持久性.     

Maslov-Poisson measure and Feynman formulas for the solution of the Dirac equation

As the main step, the method used by V. P. Maslov for representing a solution of the initial-value problem for the classical Schrödinger equation and admitting an application to the Dirac equation includes the construction of a cylindrical countably additive measure (that is an analog of the Poisson distribution) on a certain space of functions (= trajectories in the impulse space) whose Fourier transform coincides with the factor in the formula for representation of the solution of the Schrödinger equation by the integral in the so-called cylindrical Feynman (pseudo) measure (in the trajectory space of the configurational space for the classical system). On the other hand, in the Maslov formula for the solution of the Schrödinger equation, the exponential factor is (with accuracy up to a shift) the Fourier transform of the Feynman pseudomeasure. In the case of the Dirac equation, historically, for the first time, there arose formulas for the impulse representation that use countably additive functional distributions of the Poisson-Maslov measure type but with noncommuting (matrix) values. The paper finds generalized measures whose Fourier transforms coincide with an analog of the exponential factor under the integral sign in the Maslov-type formula for the Dirac equation and integrals with respect to which yield solutions of the Cauchy problem for this equation in the configurational space.     

分析复合材料层合板弯曲和振动的一种有效无网格方法

基于高阶剪切法向变形板理论（HOSNDPT）利用无网格方法对层合板弯曲和振动问题进行数值分析.在通常的径向点插值法（RPIM）中对每个Gauss(高斯)点或计算点需要求矩矩阵的逆,且受到影响域半径大小的限制.而在加权节点径向点插值法（WN-RPIM） 近似中,求解系统矩阵的逆的数量等于问题域中的节点数量,它远远小于Gauss点的数目,可以大大减少矩矩阵求逆的计算量,且克服了RPIM中影响域半径大小的限制.首先,将三维板位移分解成厚度和面内位移的乘积,在厚度方向使用正交Legendre多项式作为基函数,在板的面内使用WN RPIM来构造形函数.然后,通过对层合板的弯曲问题进行数值计算表明WN-RPIM的计算精度和稳定性.最后,将该方法推广到对不同边界条件、不同厚跨比、不同铺设方式的层合板振动问题的数值计算,数值结果表明了本文提供方法的适用性和有效性.     

A note on the approximation of Dirichlet boundary control problems for the wave equation on curved domains

We consider an exact boundary control problem for the wave equation with given initial and terminal data and Dirichlet boundary control. The aim is to steer the state of the system that is defined on a given domain to a position of rest in finite time. The optimal control that is obtained as the solution of the problem depends on the data that define the problem, in particular on the domain. Often for the numerical solution of the control problem, this given domain is replaced by a polygon. This is the motivation to study the convergence of the optimal controls for the polygon to the optimal controls for the given domain. To study the convergence, the values of the optimal controls that are defined on the boundaries of the approximating polygons are mapped in the normal directions of the polygon to control functions defined on the boundary of the original domain. This map has already been used by Bramble and King, Deckelnick, Guenther and Hinze and by Casas and Sokolowski. Using this map, we can show the strong convergence of the transformed controls as the polygons approach the given domain. An essential tool to obtain the convergence is a regularization term in the objective functions to increase the regularity of the state.     

Parameter identification of TSK neuro-fuzzy models

In the framework of the TSK neuro-fuzzy model a combination of the two well-known identification methods are employed for parameter estimation of the neuro-fuzzy inference system, namely the series–parallel and the parallel configurations. The presented paper proposes two new possible configurations for identifying the parameters of the TSK neuro-fuzzy model using the combinations of these two existing configurations. One of the proposed configurations constitutes the series–parallel configuration to the premise part and the parallel configuration to the consequent part of the neuro-fuzzy model, termed as PS-P configuration. The second one is composed of the series–parallel configuration to the consequent part and the parallel configuration to the premise part of the neuro-fuzzy model, termed as CS-P configuration. The presented work mainly deals with a comparative study of the proposed configurations and the existing configurations in the context of parameter identification of the TSK neuro-fuzzy model on three different benchmark examples. Moreover, it investigates upper bound of the learning rates, using the Lyapunov stability theorem, to assure the stability and the convergence of the model learning process. Implementation of the modified mountain clustering (MMC) and the cluster validity function yields initial models. To restrict the upper bound during the learning process it also presents a two-phase adaptive learning rate.