基于公开数据的SARS流行规律的建模及预报

基于全球与我国公开发表的有关SARS确诊病例、疑似病例和死亡病例的实际数据,建立有关流行病学的模型是本研究的目的。我们探讨了SARS的简单流行病学微分方程模型,建立了北京医院尚有确诊病例的时间序列的ARMA模型,得出6月底左右北京医院SARS病人数将会降到60人以下。同时,通过经验模型和贝叶斯方法对病死率进行了初步估计。     

具有跟踪隔离措施的新冠肺炎传播模型分析及应用

报道于2019年12月底的新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情, 由于2020年春运期间人口的大规模流动, 使得其迅速蔓延.自2020年1月23日起, 我国采取了各种措施使得疫情得到了有效的控制, 例如武汉封城、确诊病例的密切接触者跟踪隔离、湖北人员的居家隔离等.该文基于COVID-19在山西省的实际传播情况, 建立了具有输入病例和确诊病例密切接触者跟踪隔离的动力学模型.在不考虑输入病例的情况下, 分析了模型的动力学行为.利用山西省COVID-19病例数据, 计算了实时再生数, 发现山西省2020 年1月25日全省封村封街道有效控制了COVID-19疫情的传播, 即实时再生数小于1, 从宏观角度验证了防控措施的有效性.进一步通过模型的数值拟合得到: 早期染病者隔离14天的防控策略是合理有效的; 武汉封城时间越早, 染病者的规模越小; 跟踪隔离到大量确诊病例的接触者时, 染病者的规模越小.     

动态copula模型及在金融中的应用

copula模型因为能全面和灵活地刻画变量之间复杂的相依结构,因此被广泛应用于金融领域.金融市场的动态发展导致金融变量之间的相关性随时间变化而变化,这种动态相关性可以通过使copula函数或其参数随时间变化进行建模.本文介绍了动态copula模型的引入和发展、目前常见的几种动态copula模型、动态copula模型在金...     

COVID-19疫情时滞模型构建与确诊病例驱动的追踪隔离措施分析

新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情自暴发以来,众多研究者基于公开的疫情数据和经典的SEIR模型研究了疫情的发展趋势、传播风险等,为早期COVID-19疫情预测预警提供了重要的决策依据.本论文首先讨论在突发性传染病疫情发展期间,传染病数学模型是如何助力疫情防控的,能在公共卫生重大突发事件中发挥什么样的重要作用.然后集中介绍如何建立数学模型来刻画COVID-19疫情期间密切跟踪隔离措施的实施以及措施强度的变化,重点讨论有症状感染者和确诊病例驱动的追踪隔离措施在建模上的异同,最后得到确诊病例驱动的COVID-19时滞非自治传染病模型.主要结论揭示了确诊滞后不仅能有效延迟感染者类峰值到来的时间,而且使得其出现多峰,甚至最终感染规模可能增大的现象,但是我国强有力的综合防控策略能够有效减缓确诊滞后带来的不利影响.这为分析复杂疫情数据提供了新的重要的模型参考.     

混凝土搅拌站的选址问题研究

混凝土搅拌站的选址,在施工中占有十分重要的地位.针对混凝土需求随时间不规则变化的情况以及混凝土有效期短等特点,提出了混凝土需求不规则变化的选址模型.该模型把选址与各个时间段的资源配置结合起来确定混凝土搅拌站的位置,在保证需求最大限度得到满足的同时,使选址能够兼顾到尽可能多的需求点,最大化搅拌站的利润.应用该模型和算法成功地解决了一个实际问题,算例验证了模型和算法的有效性.     

具有库存损耗且允许缺货的EOQ模型

提出了一种库存损耗量随时间和库存量变化,且允许缺货的EOQ模型,证明了该模型的平均总费用函数在给定条件下为凸函数,并讨论了模型的最优策略及近似解.     

抗艾滋病药物的评价与预测模型

第一问中对CD4数量和HIV浓度随周期变化分别建立线性模型和二次模型,由数据确立中度患者CD4随时间变化模型为:C(T)=0.0496T+3.0659,HIV随时间变化为:H(T)=0.0044T2-0.2317T+4.2899.确定最佳治疗终止时间为:轻度患者28.90周,中度患者31.97周,重度患者为40.86周,平均最佳终止治疗时间33.91周.第二问中得出疗法4效果最好,疗法3次之,疗法1最差.然后通过建立了回归分析模型,对最优疗法进行预测,得到最佳终止治疗时间为25.53周.第三问在第二问的基础上增加了治疗费用对治疗效果的影响,计算得出:疗法3为最优,疗法1次之,疗法2最差.用疗法3的数据进行作图分析得到疗法3的最佳治疗终止时间为40周.     

动态经济网络结构及其稳定性研究

在Jackson和Wolinsk71996年提出的经济网络的内生形成模型的基础上,进行模型的动态扩展研究．探讨在网络中随时间序列的变化,每个时间步内都有一个新节点增加的动态变化状态下,模型构成的变化情况．随着网络的动态变化,模型的稳定性和静态网络中的稳定性是不同的,因此也探讨了在动态模型中动态稳定性的含义,并给出了不同约束条件下,形成的动态稳定网络结构及其有效性的初步探讨．     

唐家山堰塞湖泄洪问题的研究

研究的是唐家山地震次生灾害引发的堰塞湖问题.首先对数字高程地图进行等高图像分析求解了堰塞湖不同高程水位对应的湖区面积,建立了蓄水量体积与堰塞湖水位高程的离散化模型,然后建立了神经网络模型和多元线性回归模型研究了北川降雨量与堰塞湖入库流量的关系,继而求解得到不同降雨量下每日堰塞湖水位高程.在研究泄洪过程时,首先通过对泄洪过程和溃坝过程内在机理的研究分别建立了正交多项式逼近模型和仿真模型得到溃坝时的溃口流量随时间变化的关系,继而分析求解得到溃坝时其他参数随时间变化的关系.针对淹没区的问题,综合数字高程地图和行政区域地图,利用数字地图计算了洪水到达各被淹没区域的时间,淹没范围,以便于确定撤离方案.     

湍动对流与变星脉动稳定性

本文利用文献[1]所发展的随时间变化的对流理论,研究了径向脉动运动同对流的耦合.由天琴座RR型变星和仙王座δ型变星模型的线性非绝热脉动计算表明,当考虑了对流与脉动的热力学耦合后,我们将可以确定脉动不稳定区红端边界的位置.并可望去解释长周期变星.以及晚型红巨星和超巨星光的变化性.     

Robustness of multi-grid applied to anisotropic equations on convex domains and on domains with re-entrant corners

Summary We analyse multi-grid applied to anisotropic equations within the framework of smoothing and approximation-properties developed by Hack busch. For a model anisotropic equation on a square, we give an up-till-now missing proof of an estimate concerning the approximation property which is essential to show robustness. Furthermore, we show a corresponding estimate for a model anisotropic equation on an L-shaped domain. The existing estimates for the smoothing property are not suitable to prove robustness for either 2-cyclic Gauss-Seidel smoothers or for less regular problems such as our second model equation. For both cases, we give sharper estimates. By combination of our results concerning smoothing- and approximation-properties, robustness of W-cycle multi-grid applied to both our model equations will follow for a number of smoothers.     

Soliton-like structures and the connection between the Bq and KP equations

We study the (2+1)-dimensional model proposed by Kadomtsev and Petviashvili (KP) to describe slowly varying nonlinear waves in a dispersive medium. Applying an appropriate Lie transformation and following the method introduced by Tajiri et al., the KP equation is reduced to a one-dimensional equation, that is, to a certain version of the Boussinesq equation (BqE). Then, we solve the BqE by the Hirota method, and finally we use the inverse transformation in order to obtain de KP solutions. We Analyze some remarkable properties of the solutions found in this work.     

A New Evans Function for Quasi-Periodic Solutions of the Linearised Sine-Gordon Equation

We construct a new Evans function for quasi-periodic solutions to the linearisation of the sine-Gordon equation about a periodic travelling wave. This Evans function is written in terms of fundamental solutions to a Hill’s equation. Applying the Evans-Krein function theory of Kollár and Miller (SIAM Rev 56(1):73–123, 2014) to our Evans function, we provide a new method for computing the Krein signatures of simple characteristic values of the linearised sine-Gordon equation. By varying the Floquet exponent parametrising the quasi-periodic solutions, we compute the linearised spectra of periodic travelling wave solutions of the sine-Gordon equation and track dynamical Hamiltonian–Hopf bifurcations via the Krein signature. Finally, we show that our new Evans function can be readily applied to the general case of the nonlinear Klein–Gordon equation with a non-periodic potential.

     

On exact solutions to epidemic dynamic models

In this study, we address an SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model that is given as a system of first order differential equations and propose the SIR model on time scales which unifies and extends continuous and discrete models. More precisely, we derive the exact solution to the SIR model and discuss the asymptotic behavior of the number of susceptibles and infectives. Next, we introduce an SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) model on time scales and find the exact solution. We solve the models by using the Bernoulli equation on time scales which provides an alternative method to the existing methods. Having the models on time scales also leads to new discrete models. We illustrate our results with examples where the number of infectives in the population is obtained on different time scales.     

An improved linearization strategy for zero-one quadratic programming problems

We present a new linearized model for the zero-one quadratic programming problem, whose size is linear in terms of the number of variables in the original nonlinear problem. Our derivation yields three alternative reformulations, each varying in model size and tightness. We show that our models are at least as tight as the one recently proposed in [7], and examine the theoretical relationship of our models to a standard linearization of the zero-one quadratic programming problem. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of solving each of these models on a set of randomly generated test instances.     

Stationary statistical properties of Rayleigh‐Bénard convection at large Prandtl number

This is the third in a series of our study of Rayleigh‐Bénard convection at large Prandtl number. Here we investigate whether stationary statistical properties of the Boussinesq system for Rayleigh‐Bénard convection at large Prandtl number are related to those of the infinite Prandtl number model for convection that is formally derived from the Boussinesq system via setting the Prandtl number to infinity. We study asymptotic behavior of stationary statistical solutions, or invariant measures, to the Boussinesq system for Rayleigh‐Bénard convection at large Prandtl number. In particular, we show that the invariant measures of the Boussinesq system for Rayleigh‐Bénard convection converge to those of the infinite Prandtl number model for convection as the Prandtl number approaches infinity. We also show that the Nusselt number for the Boussinesq system (a specific statistical property of the system) is asymptotically bounded by the Nusselt number of the infinite Prandtl number model for convection at large Prandtl number. We discover that the Nusselt numbers are saturated by ergodic invariant measures. Moreover, we derive a new upper bound on the Nusselt number for the Boussinesq system at large Prandtl number of the form which asymptotically agrees with the (optimal) upper bound on Nusselt number for the infinite Prandtl number model for convection. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Implicit-explicit schemes for flow equations with stiff source terms

In this paper, we design stable and accurate numerical schemes for conservation laws with stiff source terms. A prime example and the main motivation for our study is the reactive Euler equations of gas dynamics. Furthermore, we consider widely studied scalar model equations. We device one-step IMEX (implicit-explicit) schemes for these equations that treats the convection terms explicitly and the source terms implicitly.For the non-linear scalar equation, we use a novel choice of initial data for the resulting Newton solver and obtain correct propagation speeds, even in the difficult case of rarefaction initial data. For the reactive Euler equations, we choose the numerical diffusion suitably in order to obtain correct wave speeds on under-resolved meshes.We prove that our implicit-explicit scheme converges in the scalar case and present a large number of numerical experiments to validate our scheme in both the scalar case as well as the case of reactive Euler equations.Furthermore, we discuss fundamental differences between the reactive Euler equations and the scalar model equation that must be accounted for when designing a scheme.     

Periodic solutions for an equation governing dynamics of a renewable resource subjected to Allee effects

In this article the minimum number of positive periodic solutions admitted by a non-autonomous scalar differential equation is estimated. This result is employed to find the minimum number of positive periodic solutions admitted by a model representing dynamics of a renewable resource that is subjected to Allee effects in a seasonally varying environment. The Allee effect refers to a decrease in population growth rate at low population densities. Leggett–Williams multiple fixed point theorem is used to establish the existence of positive periodic solutions.     

Asymptotic solution of wave front of the telegraph model of dispersive variability

A number of nonlinear phenomena in physical, chemical, economical and biological processes are described by the interplay of reaction and diffusion or by the interaction between convection and diffusion. Recently, it is found that telegraph equation is more suitable than ordinary diffusion equation in modelling reaction diffusion for such branches of sciences. In this paper we use the technique of asymptotic solution to find travelling wave solution for the telegraph model of dispersive variability which is a generalization of the Julian Cook model. Our model tackled special values of the time delay and the probability that an individual is disperser in a population of dispersers and nondispersers. The solution of our model is reduced to telegraph Fisher–Kolmogoroff invasion and Julian Cook models. Also, the effect of the time delay on the propagation speed is presented.     

Asymptotic solution of wave front of the telegraph model of dispersive variability

A number of nonlinear phenomena in physical, chemical, economical and biological processes are described by the interplay of reaction and diffusion or by the interaction between convection and diffusion. Recently, it is found that telegraph equation is more suitable than ordinary diffusion equation in modelling reaction diffusion for such branches of sciences. In this paper we use the technique of asymptotic solution to find travelling wave solution for the telegraph model of dispersive variability which is a generalization of the Julian Cook model. Our model tackled special values of the time delay and the probability that an individual is disperser in a population of dispersers and nondispersers. The solution of our model is reduced to telegraph Fisher–Kolmogoroff invasion and Julian Cook models. Also, the effect of the time delay on the propagation speed is presented.