Monte Carlo evaluation of biological variation: Random generation of correlated non-Gaussian model parameters

When modelling the behaviour of horticultural products, demonstrating large sources of biological variation, we often run into the issue of non-Gaussian distributed model parameters. This work presents an algorithm to reproduce such correlated non-Gaussian model parameters for use with Monte Carlo simulations. The algorithm works around the problem of non-Gaussian distributions by transforming the observed non-Gaussian probability distributions using a proposed SKN-distribution function before applying the covariance decomposition algorithm to generate Gaussian random co-varying parameter sets. The proposed SKN-distribution function is based on the standard Gaussian distribution function and can exhibit different degrees of both skewness and kurtosis. This technique is demonstrated using a case study on modelling the ripening of tomato fruit evaluating the propagation of biological variation with time.     

A Bayesian Motivated Laplace Inversion for Multivariate Probability Distributions

The paper introduces a recursive procedure to invert the multivariate Laplace transform of probability distributions. The procedure involves taking independent samples from the Laplace transform; these samples are then used to update recursively an initial starting distribution. The update is Bayesian driven. The final estimate can be written as a mixture of independent gamma distributions, making it the only methodology which guarantees to numerically recover a probability distribution with positive support. Proof of convergence is given by a fixed point argument. The estimator is fast, accurate and can be run in parallel since the target distribution is evaluated on a grid of points. The method is illustrated on several examples and compared to the bivariate Gaver–Stehfest method.     

Data Clustering Based on Maximization of Outlier Factor

There exist many data clustering algorithms, but they can not adequately handle the number of clusters or cluster shapes. Their performance mainly depends on a choice of algorithm parameters. Our approach to data clustering and algorithm does not require the parameter choice; it can be treated as a natural adaptation to the existing structure of distances between data points. The outlier factor introduced by the author specifies a degree of being an outlier for each data point. The outlier factor notion is based on the difference between the frequency distribution of interpoint distances in a given dataset and the corresponding distribution of uniformly distributed points. Then data clusters can be determined by maximizing the outlier factor function. The data points in dataset are divided into clusters according to the attractor regions of local optima. An experimental evaluation of the proposed algorithm shows that the proposed method can identify complex cluster shapes. Key advantages of the approach are: good clustering properties for datasets with comparatively large amount of noise (an additional data points), and an absence of important parameters which adequate choice determines the quality of results.     

Multivariate Gaussian Simulation Outside Arbitrary Ellipsoids

Methods for simulation from multivariate Gaussian distributions restricted to be from outside an arbitrary ellipsoidal region are often needed in applications. A standard rejection algorithm that draws a sample from a multivariate Gaussian distribution and accepts it if it is outside the ellipsoid is often employed; however, this is computationally inefficient if the probability of that ellipsoid under the multivariate normal distribution is substantial. We provide a two-stage rejection sampling scheme for drawing samples from such a truncated distribution. Experiments show that the added complexity of the two-stage approach results in the standard algorithm being more efficient for small ellipsoids (i.e., with small rejection probability). However, as the size of the ellipsoid increases, the efficiency of the two-stage approach relative to the standard algorithm increases indefinitely. The relative efficiency also increases as the number of dimensions increases, as the centers of the ellipsoid and the multivariate Gaussian distribution come closer, and as the shape of the ellipsoid becomes more spherical. We provide results of simulation experiments conducted to quantify the relative efficiency over a range of parameter settings.     

A local limit theorem for a transient chaotic walk in a frozen environment

This paper studies particle propagation in a one-dimensional inhomogeneous medium where the laws of motion are generated by chaotic and deterministic local maps. Assuming that the particle’s initial location is random and uniformly distributed, this dynamical system can be reduced to a random walk in a one-dimensional inhomogeneous environment with a forbidden direction. Our main result is a local limit theorem which explains in detail why, in the long run, the random walk’s probability mass function does not converge to a Gaussian density, although the corresponding limiting distribution over a coarser diffusive space scale is Gaussian.     

混合变异粒子群优化算法及其应用

为改善粒子群优化算法在解决复杂优化问题时收敛质量不高的不足,提出了一种改进的粒子群优化算法,即混合变异粒子群优化算法(HMPSO).HMPSO算法采用了带有随机因子的惯性权重取值更新策略,降低了标准粒子群优化算法中由于粒子飞行速度过大而错过最优解的概率,从而加速了算法的收敛速度.此外,通过混合变异进化环节的引入,缓解了...     

Clustering Multivariate Longitudinal Observations: The Contaminated Gaussian Hidden Markov Model

The Gaussian hidden Markov model (HMM) is widely considered for the analysis of heterogenous continuous multivariate longitudinal data. To robustify this approach with respect to possible elliptical heavy-tailed departures from normality, due to the presence of outliers, spurious points, or noise (collectively referred to as bad points herein), the contaminated Gaussian HMM is here introduced. The contaminated Gaussian distribution represents an elliptical generalization of the Gaussian distribution and allows for automatic detection of bad points in the same natural way as observations are typically assigned to the latent states in the HMM context. Once the model is fitted, each observation has a posterior probability of belonging to a particular state and, inside each state, of being a bad point or not. In addition to the parameters of the classical Gaussian HMM, for each state we have two more parameters, both with a specific and useful interpretation: one controls the proportion of bad points and one specifies their degree of atypicality. A sufficient condition for the identifiability of the model is given, an expectation-conditional maximization algorithm is outlined for parameter estimation and various operational issues are discussed. Using a large-scale simulation study, but also an illustrative artificial dataset, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model in comparison with HMMs of different elliptical distributions, and we also evaluate the performance of some well-known information criteria in selecting the true number of latent states. The model is finally used to fit data on criminal activities in Italian provinces. Supplementary materials for this article are available online     

Generation of three-dimensional random rotations in fitting and matching problems

An algorithm is developed to generate random rotations in three-dimensional space that follow a probability distribution arising in fitting and matching problems. The rotation matrices are orthogonally transformed into an optimal basis and then parameterized using Euler angles. The conditional distributions of the three Euler angles have a very simple form: the two azimuthal angles can be decoupled by sampling their sum and difference from a von Mises distribution; the cosine of the polar angle is exponentially distributed and thus straighforward to generate. Simulation results are shown and demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. The algorithm is compared to other methods for generating random rotations such as a random walk Metropolis scheme and a Gibbs sampling algorithm recently introduced by Green and Mardia. Finally, the algorithm is applied to a probabilistic version of the Procrustes problem of fitting two point sets and applied in the context of protein structure superposition.     

Rare Event Probability Estimation in the Presence of Epistemic Uncertainty on Input Probability Distribution Parameters

The accurate estimation of rare event probabilities is a crucial problem in engineering to characterize the reliability of complex systems. Several methods such as Importance Sampling or Importance Splitting have been proposed to perform the estimation of such events more accurately (i.e., with a lower variance) than crude Monte Carlo method. However, these methods assume that the probability distributions of the input variables are exactly defined (e.g., mean and covariance matrix perfectly known if the input variables are defined through Gaussian laws) and are not able to determine the impact of a change in the input distribution parameters on the probability of interest. The problem considered in this paper is the propagation of the input distribution parameter uncertainty defined by intervals to the rare event probability. This problem induces intricate optimization and numerous probability estimations in order to determine the upper and lower bounds of the probability estimate. The calculation of these bounds is often numerically intractable for rare event probability (say 10^?5), due to the high computational cost required. A new methodology is proposed to solve this problem with a reduced simulation budget, using the adaptive Importance Sampling. To this end, a method for estimating the Importance Sampling optimal auxiliary distribution is proposed, based on preceding Importance Sampling estimations. Furthermore, a Kriging-based adaptive Importance Sampling is used in order to minimize the number of evaluations of the computationally expensive simulation code. To determine the bounds of the probability estimate, an evolutionary algorithm is employed. This algorithm has been selected to deal with noisy problems since the Importance Sampling probability estimate is a random variable. The efficiency of the proposed approach, in terms of accuracy of the found results and computational cost, is assessed on academic and engineering test cases.     

风电功率波动特性的概率分布模型研究

为保证电网安全稳定运行,在大规模风电并网运行控制过程中,准确构建风电出力波动特性的概率分布模型具有重要意义.基于数据驱动的方法,采用加权高斯混合概率分布模型来拟合大规模风电基地的波动特性,模型拟合参数可采用基于期望最大化(Expectation Maximization,EM)的极大似然估计算法来获得,并提出了拟合评价...     

An improved training algorithm for feedforward neural network learning based on terminal attractors

In this paper, an improved training algorithm based on the terminal attractor concept for feedforward neural network learning is proposed. A condition to avoid the singularity problem is proposed. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is evaluated by various simulation results for a function approximation problem and a stock market index prediction problem. It is shown that the terminal attractor based training algorithm performs consistently in comparison with other existing training algorithms.     

Edge scaling limits for a family of non-Hermitian random matrix ensembles

A family of random matrix ensembles interpolating between the Ginibre ensemble of n × n matrices with iid centered complex Gaussian entries and the Gaussian unitary ensemble (GUE) is considered. The asymptotic spectral distribution in these models is uniform in an ellipse in the complex plane, which collapses to an interval of the real line as the degree of non-Hermiticity diminishes. Scaling limit theorems are proven for the eigenvalue point process at the rightmost edge of the spectrum, and it is shown that a non-trivial transition occurs between Poisson and Airy point process statistics when the ratio of the axes of the supporting ellipse is of order n ^?1/3. In this regime, the family of limiting probability distributions of the maximum of the real parts of the eigenvalues interpolates between the Gumbel and Tracy–Widom distributions.     

The evolution of a truncated gaussian probability density through time—modelling animal liveweights after selection

The form of the probability density derived from the evolution in time of a previously truncated frequency distribution of animal Liveweights is of interest in animal husbandry. Truncated frequency distributions arise when the heavier animals are sold for slaughter and the lighter animals retained. The demands of modern quality assurance schemes require that, given information on animal growth, the farmer is able to estimate the number of animals that would meet the specifications at some time in the future after truncation. Assuming that animal growth can be described by a linear stochastic differential equation, we derive an explicit expression for the probability density of animal Liveweights at any time after the truncation of an initial Gaussian density. It is shown that this probability density converges rapidly to a Gaussian density, so that after about 20 days of typical growth rates for lambs, the resulting density is practically indistinguishable from Gaussian.     

多元$t$分布数据的局部影响分析

对于多元$t$分布数据, 直接应用其概率密度进行影响分析是困难的\bd 本文通过引入服从Gamma分布的权重, 将其表示为特定多元正态分布的混合\bd 在此基础上, 进而将权重视为缺失数据, 引入EM算法; 从而利用基于完全数据似然函数的条件期望进行局部影响分析\bd 本文进一步系统研究了加权扰动模型下的局部影响分析, 得到了相应的诊断统计量; 并通过两个实例说明了这种方法的有效性.     

Fluctuations of shapes of large areas under paths of random walks

Summary We discuss statistical properties of random walks conditioned by fixing a large area under their paths. We prove the functional central limit theorem (invariance principle) for these conditional distributions. The limiting Gaussian measure coincides with the conditional probability distribution of certain timenonhomogeneous Gaussian random process obtained by an integral transformation of the white noise. From the point of view of statistical mechanics the studied problem is the problem of describing the fluctuations of the phase boundary in the one-dimensional SOS-model.     

Hidden semi-Markov model-based methodology for multi-sensor equipment health diagnosis and prognosis

This paper presents an integrated platform for multi-sensor equipment diagnosis and prognosis. This integrated framework is based on hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM). Unlike a state in a standard hidden Markov model (HMM), a state in an HSMM generates a segment of observations, as opposed to a single observation in the HMM. Therefore, HSMM structure has a temporal component compared to HMM. In this framework, states of HSMMs are used to represent the health status of a component. The duration of a health state is modeled by an explicit Gaussian probability function. The model parameters (i.e., initial state distribution, state transition probability matrix, observation probability matrix, and health-state duration probability distribution) are estimated through a modified forward–backward training algorithm. The re-estimation formulae for model parameters are derived. The trained HSMMs can be used to diagnose the health status of a component. Through parameter estimation of the health-state duration probability distribution and the proposed backward recursive equations, one can predict the useful remaining life of the component. To determine the “value” of each sensor information, discriminant function analysis is employed to adjust the weight or importance assigned to a sensor. Therefore, sensor fusion becomes possible in this HSMM based framework.     

Stochastic process model for solute transport and the associated transport equation

A mathematical model of Lagrangian motions of a particle in turbulent flows is developed on the basis of a stochastic differential equation. The model expresses uncertainties involved in turbulence by standard Brownian motion. Because the model does not guarantee smoothness of the path of the particle, local velocity is newly defined so as to be suitable for observation of a velocity time series at a fixed point. Then, it is shown that the newly defined local velocity is governed by a Gaussian distribution. In addition, an estimation method of the turbulent diffusion coefficient involved in the model is proposed by using the local velocity. The estimation method does not require tracer experiments. In order to assess the validity of the proposed local velocity, velocity measurements with three-dimensional acoustic Doppler velocimeters were conducted in agricultural drainage canals. Also, the turbulent diffusion coefficient was estimated by the derived time series of the observed local velocity. Finally, a transport equation of conservative solute is derived by using the linearity of the Kolmogorov forward equation without using gradient-type lows.     

A Differential Free Point Generation Scheme in the Differential Evolution Algorithm

In this paper we derive the probability distribution of trial points in the differential evolution (de) algorithm, in particular the probability distribution of points generated by mutation. We propose a point generation scheme that uses an approximation to this distribution. The scheme can dispense with the differential vector used in the mutation of de. We propose a de algorithm that replaces the differential based mutation scheme with a probability distribution based point generation scheme. We also propose a de algorithm that uses a probabilistic combination of the point generation by the probability distribution and the point generation by mutation. A numerical study is carried out using a set of 50 test problems, many of which are inspired by practical applications. Numerical results suggest that the new algorithms are superior to the original version both in terms of the number of function evaluations and cpu times.     

Novel algorithm for reconstruction of a distribution by fitting its first-four statistical moments

This paper proposes a novel algorithm to reconstruct an unknown distribution by fitting its first-four moments to a proper parametrized probability distribution (PPD) model. First, a PPD system containing three previously developed PPD models is suggested to approximate the unknown distribution, rather than empirically adopting a single distribution model. Then, a two-step algorithm based on the moments matching criterion and the maximum entropy principle is proposed to specify the appropriate (final) PPD model in the system for the distribution. The proposed algorithm is first verified by approximating several commonly used analytical distributions, along with a set of real dataset, where the existing measures are also employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed two-step algorithm. Further, the effectiveness of the algorithm is demonstrated through an application to three typical moments-based reliability problems. It is found that the proposed algorithm is a robust tool for selecting an appropriate PPD model in the system for recovering an unknown distribution by fitting its first-four moments.     

Wave Statistics in Non-Linear Random Sea

The sea elevation at a fixed point is modeled as a sum of a Gaussian process plus a quadratic random correction term. It is shown that the process can also be written as a quadratic form of a vector valued Gaussian process with arbitrary mean. The saddlepoint method is used to approximate the intensity (u), say, the sea level crosses the level u. The accuracy of the proposed method is studied. In examples the computed intensity is used to bound the wave crest distribution. The bounds are compared with empirical distributions derived from simulations.