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1.
ESTIMATION OF THE MIXED AR AND HIDDEN PERIODIC MODEL   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
ThisresearchissupportedbytheNationalNaturalScienceFoundationofChina.1.IntroductionGeneralizedhiddenperiodicmodelhasthefollowingformwhereacisthesetofallpositiveintegers,('~{((t);tEac}isastationarysequencewithzeromeanandcontinuousspectraldensity,i=n,qisanonnegativeinteger,'f=0,X=(Al,Az,',A,)isarealvectorwith--T相似文献   

2.
This paper investigates regression quantiles (RQ) for unstable autoregressive models. The uniform Bahadur representation of the RQ process is obtained. The joint asymptotic distribution of the RQ process is derived in a unified manner for all types of characteristic roots on or outside the unit circle. It involves stochastic integrals in terms of a sequence of independent and identically distributed multivariate Brownian motions with correlated components. The related L-estimator is also discussed. The asymptotic distributions of the RQ and the L-estimator corresponding to the nonstationary componentwise arguments can be transformed into a function of a normal random variable and a sequence of i.i.d. univariate Brownian motions. This is different from the analysis based on the LSE in the literature. As an auxiliary theorem, a weak convergence of a randomly weighted residual empirical process to the stochastic integral of a Kiefer process is established. The results obtained in this paper provide an asymptotic theory for nonstationary time series processes, which can be used to construct robust unit root tests.  相似文献   

3.
In this paper, an estimation theory in partial linear model is developed when there is measurement error in the response and when validation data are available. A semiparametric method with the primary data is used to define two estimators for both the regression parameter and the nonparametric part using the least squares criterion with the help of validation data. The proposed estimators of the parameter are proved to be strongly consistent and asymptotically normaal, and the estimators of the nonparametric part are also proved to be strongly consistent and weakly consistent with an optimal convergent rate. Then, the two estimators of the parameter are compared based on their empirical performances. Supported by NNSF of China (No. 10231030, No. 10241001) and a grant to the author for his excellent Ph.D. dissertation work in China.  相似文献   

4.
本文综合近邻权函数法及最小二乘法,用两阶段最小二乘估计的方法得到了半参数EV模型中参数的估计量及其强相合性,渐近正态性。同时也得到了非参数函数的估计量及其强相合性,一致强相合性。  相似文献   

5.
研究了一类半参数回归模型,利用最小二乘法和小波估计法给出了未知参数β和未知函数g(.)的估计.在误差序列为ψ-混合或φ-混合下得到了^β的强相合性,给出了^g(.)的一致强相合性和r阶矩相合性.  相似文献   

6.
研究了一个简化的新的Laplace AR(1)模型参数的条件最小二乘估计和最大拟似然估计,并讨论了它们的强相合性和渐近正态性.通过数值模拟和实际例子,说明了最大拟似然估计及模型的优越性.  相似文献   

7.
通过Kaplan-Meier估计和Nelson-Aalen估计得到了平稳时间序列被另一平稳序列右删失下.AR模型的参数估计.首先,通过与完全数据下的参数估计进行对比,说明了两种估计方法的效果.然后,根据计算机模拟的样本量以及删失率的不同,对比了两种估计的优劣,并且模拟结果表明两种估计是有效的.  相似文献   

8.
Following a Markov chain approach, this paper establishes asymptotic properties of the least squares estimator in nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) models. Based on conditions ensuring the stability of the model and allowing the use of a strong law of large number for a wide class of functions, our approach improves some known results on strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator. The exact convergence rate is established by a law of the iterated logarithm. Based on this law and a generalized Akaike's information criterion, we build a strongly consistent procedure for selection of NAR models. Detailed results are given for familiar nonlinear AR models like exponential AR models, threshold models or multilayer feedforward perceptions.  相似文献   

9.
Estimation in partial linear EV models with replicated observations   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
The aim of this work is to construct the parameter estimators in the partial linear errors-in-variables (EV) models and explore their asymptotic properties. Unlike other related references, the assumption of known error covariance matrix is removed when the sample can be repeatedly drawn at each designed point from the model. The estimators of interested regression parameters, and the model error variance, as well as the non-parametric function, are constructed. Under some regular conditions, all of the estimators prove strongly consistent. Meanwhile, the asymptotic normality for the estimator of regression parameter is also presented. A simulation study is reported to illustrate our asymptotic results.  相似文献   

10.
于洋  侯文 《经济数学》2020,37(3):221-226
讨论了响应变量为单参数指数族且在零点处膨胀的广义线性模型的大样本性质,对其参数进行了极大似然估计,给出了一些正则条件.基于所提出的正则条件,证明了模型参数极大似然估计的相合性与渐近正态性.  相似文献   

11.
In this paper, we study a stationary AR(p)-ARCH(q) model with parameter vectors a and β. We propose a method for computing the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of parameters under the nonnegative restriction. A similar method is also proposed for the case that the parameters are restricted by a simple order: α1≥α2≥…≥αq, andβ1≥β2≥…βp. The strong consistency of the above two estimators is discussed. Furthermore, we consider the problem of testing homogeneity of parameters against the simple order restriction. We give the likelihood ratio (LR) test statistic for the testing problem and derive its asymptotic null distribution.  相似文献   

12.
In this article we study the empirical likelihood inference for AR(p) model. We propose the moment restrictions, by which we get the empirical likelihood estimator of the model parametric, and we also propose an empirical log-likelihood ratio base on this estimator. Our result shows that the EL estimator is asymptotically normal, and the empirical log-likelihood ratio is proved to be asymptotically standard chi-squared.  相似文献   

13.
AR and bilinear time series models are expressed as time series chain graphical models, based on which, it is shown that the coefficients of AR and bilinear models are the conditional correlation coefficients conditioned on the other components of the time series. Then a graphically based procedure is proposed to test the significance of the coefficients of AR and bilinear time series. Simulations show that our procedure performs well both in sizes and powers. This work was supported by the Hong Kong Polytechnic University Research Council, the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 10671044) and the Science and Technology Bureau of Guangzhou Municipal Government of China (Grant No. LSBH-017)  相似文献   

14.
AR and bilinear time series models are expressed as time series chain graphical models, based on which, it is shown that the coefficients of AR and bilinear models are the conditional correlation coefficients conditioned on the other components of the time series. Then a graphically based procedure is proposed to test the significance of the coeffcients of AR and bilinear time series. Simulations show that our procedure performs well both in sizes and powers.  相似文献   

15.
In this paper a new minimum distance estimator is defined in case that the residuals of an AR(1)-process are contaminated normally distributed. This estimator is asymtotically normally distributed and in most cases less biased than the least square estimator. Furthermore, a method is presented to numerically calculate the minimum distance estimator as a root of an implicit function.  相似文献   

16.
随机自变量多项式回归函数的估计问题   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
以随机函数逼近论的观点看待统计模型问题,得到了解决其问题的具有一般性的新途径与新方法,作出了随机自变量多项式回归函数及其相应的误差方差的优良估计,其优良性的标准包括强相合性、相合渐近正态性与L1收敛性.  相似文献   

17.
In this paper, linear regression models with contaminated data are considered. Estimation methods for the regression parameters based on least absolute deviations (LAD) are proposed, and properties of consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed method are proved under some regular conditions. Simulations are done to assess the properties of the method when sample size is small, and simulation results show that the methods works well.  相似文献   

18.
The strong consistency of M-estimates of the regression coefficients in a linear model under some mild conditions is established, which is an essential improvement over the relevant results in the literature on the moment condition. Especially, in some important circumstances, onlyE|ψ(ek)|q for some q > 1 is needed, where ψ{ek} is some score function of random error.  相似文献   

19.
??The Bayesian model are established for the VaR and related risk measurements. The relationship between VaR and other risk measurements including expect shortfall, tail condition expectation and conditional value at risk are discussed. Furthermore, the Bayesian estimates and Bayesian predictors of these risk measurement are derived. Thirdly, the consistency and asymptotic normality in the exponential risk model are proved. Finally, the numerical simulation method is used to verify the convergence rate under different sample sizes.  相似文献   

20.
The Bayesian model are established for the VaR and related risk measurements. The relationship between VaR and other risk measurements including expect shortfall, tail condition expectation and conditional value at risk are discussed. Furthermore, the Bayesian estimates and Bayesian predictors of these risk measurement are derived. Thirdly, the consistency and asymptotic normality in the exponential risk model are proved. Finally, the numerical simulation method is used to verify the convergence rate under different sample sizes.  相似文献   

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