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1.
区域发展战略规划群体决策支持系统(Ⅰ)   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
赵玮  芮红 《运筹学学报》1999,3(3):54-60
区域发展战略规划群体决策支持系统是一种用于支持区域发展战略规划方案的群体决策支持系统,本文研究了该系统的目标,功能,结构,决策过程及其技术支持等内容。  相似文献   

2.
区域发展战略规划群体决策支持系统(Ⅱ)   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
赵玮  芮红 《运筹学学报》2000,4(1):86-94
本文介绍了一个用于区域发展战略规划设计与管理控制支持的群体决策支持系统中的群体决策支持模型部分,内容包括群体支持模型的功能、结构及其相应算法。  相似文献   

3.
群体决策的偏好协调性检验   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
对于一类群体决策问题,本文引进群体的偏好协调性指标,并且给出了偏好协调性指标的统计检验.在此基础上,还提出一个求该类群体决策问题的方法,以及讨论了群体的偏好快调性指标和群体决策结果间的关系.  相似文献   

4.
群体决策的偏差度分析   总被引:16,自引:2,他引:14  
本文引进群体决策的决策个体和决策群体关于两方案的偏差度,以及群体偏差映射的概念.在建立相应的偏差公理的基础上,研究了群体决策偏差分析的基本理论.同时,还给出一个利用偏差度进行群体排序的方法.  相似文献   

5.
污染物排放总量分配的群体决策方法研究   总被引:14,自引:0,他引:14  
污染物排放总量控制是防治污染的重要途径,污染物排放权的分配是区域污染物排放总量控制工作的核心.本文提出了经济最优性(P1方案)、合理公平性(P2方案)和经济发展连续性(P3方案)的污染物排放权分配原则,研究了以P1方案、P2方案和P3方案为基点的群体决策方法,给出了污染物总量分配的群体决策分配模型.  相似文献   

6.
一个群体决策问题取决于两个因素,一个是群体决策的规则,另一个是投票。当选定群体决策规则时,一个群体决策问题由投票完全决定,此时,群体决策问题与投票之间一一对应。简单多数规则是个简单且被广泛采用的群体决策规则,但它有缺陷,我们可举出些群体决策问题使用简单多数规则没法从投票得到最后群体决策的结果。这里我们将给出一个简单多数规则的有趣性质,即在3个评选对象场合,使用简单多数规则没法从投票得到最后群体决策结果的n个评选人的群体决策问题的个数与所有n个评选人的群体决策问题的个数之比当评选人个数n趋向无穷时趋于零,这说明3个评选对象的大型群体决策场合,简单多数规则的缺陷不严重。  相似文献   

7.
彭怡  胡杨 《运筹学学报》2006,10(1):123-126
为了求解状态离散的确定性多阶段群体决策问题,建立了多阶段群体决策模型,定义了群体Pareto最优策略、群体满意策略等概念,依据Bellman最优性原理,提出了多阶段群体决策问题的逆向递推算法,并通过引入偏好关系,得到了各阶段的子过程群体满意策略以及全过程群体满意策略,最后给出了一个计算实例.  相似文献   

8.
在多指标群体决策问题中,将个体决策的决策向量集结为群体决策的综合评判值是决策的关键,其中也涉及到决策专家的权威性比重问题.在五标度赋值确定专家权威性比重的基础上,以最小二乘法为工具,建立了一种群体决策的目标优化模型,从而为多指标群体决策问题提供了又一科学而合理的决策方法.  相似文献   

9.
近年来,随着信息、通信和技术的快速发展,决策者之间的关系也由此变得越来越紧密。在此背景下,决策者基于社会网络关系存在交互,社会网络群体决策会产生比传统群体决策更多的信息,信息不完全性、随机性以及决策者有限理性等因素都会导致群体决策结果与实际情况产生偏差。针对社会网络群体决策中决策偏好信息为定性概念的语言信息,且决策者之间存在信任度的群体决策问题,本文提出了一种基于云模型和PageRank算法的社会网络群决策方法并针对现有的云聚类算法拓展出了社会网络云聚类算法。首先,将语言信息转化为云模型;其次,基于社会网络拓扑图利用PageRank算法来计算每个决策者的权重;接着,使用社会网络云聚类算法将决策者分成几个子聚集并求出子聚集的权重;最后把云模型综合成方案云,利用随机模拟技术获取各个方案云的评分,给出方案的排序,并通过对比分析验证了该方法的有效性。  相似文献   

10.
高鸿桢 《数学研究》1994,27(2):1-6,11
本文研究在庥计个体偏好中产生的若干悖论,而通常群体决策中有可能产生此类悖论,进而提出一种可避免产生悖论的新集计方法.  相似文献   

11.
The Nominal Group Technique and a multi-criteria decision aid software are utilised to develop a decision support system for strategic planning of water resources in Jordan. The system described is novel in that it integrates the various decision analytical management techniques in order to increase the flexibility and efficiency of the decision making process.  相似文献   

12.
Forest management and planning can involve large tracts of land involving numerous areal units. One approach to plan activities for a forested region over decades involves breaking down decision making into three components: strategic, tactical, and operational. Each level of the management hierarchy can involve the development and application of optimization models. These models typically aid in exploring management alternatives as well as multi-objective tradeoffs. Even though a strategic model can provide support for long term management at a broad scale, solutions may not be feasible at an operational level. Tactical level modeling helps to bridge solutions reached at a strategic level using operational planning information. This paper presents several tactical level planning models that have been developed as a part of a research effort supported by the US Forest Service. These models have been utilized in land use management and planning by the US Forest Service through a specially developed spatial decision support system.  相似文献   

13.
This paper discusses some of the early thinking about the development of a conference-based decision support system. It presents a scheme for the practical development of the mapping of argumentation (‘cognitive mapping’), particularly in the field of strategic planning. The objective is to redesign software (COPE) so that it may become both an effective conferencing system for the collection of ‘synthetic wisdom’ and yet also facilitate the analysis of the qualitative and quantitative features of the models so constructed. It stresses the need for the system to be able to cope with both the political and the behavioural aspects of the decision-making arena.  相似文献   

14.
Multi-sectoral systems, such as cities or regional economies, face strategic challenges of optimal development due to the complexity of interacting perspectives, interests, and preferences of decision-makers and stakeholders. In coping with these challenges, integrated approaches in strategic planning and decision support promise to generate more efficient and effective results than sectoral approaches. In this article, we follow the concept of operational research (OR) by applying a formalized approach to cross-sectoral integrated planning and decision-making in complex, i.e., multi-sectoral systems. The presented Transdisciplinary Integrated Planning and Synthesis (TIPS) approach relies on (soft) OR methods combined in a multi-methodological framework that is adapted to the cognitive skills and habits of the stakeholders and experts involved in mutual and joint learning processes (transdisciplinarity). This methodological contribution structures, formalizes, and empirically illustrates cross-sectoral integrated strategic planning step by step, and evaluates the TIPS methodology against requirements for integrated approaches derived from literature.  相似文献   

15.
The paper discusses a multi-stage stochastic programming approach to the strategic financial management of a multi-company financial conglomerate. The planning system creates a comprehensive strategy which simultaneously covers a number of future scenarios within a multi-period planning horizon. Multiple conflicting goals may be specified for the group level, company level or individual business area level, and the decision maker’s preferences are allowed to change over time to reflect changing operating conditions and trade-off relationships between the goals. Special features include, among other things, full market valuation throughout the model, integrated treatment of different types of risks, explicit modelling of various types of intra-group transactions and relationships, extensive structures to deal with distressed assets and the covering of losses within the group, as well as consideration of potential portfolio effects of a diversified group structure on the cost of funding.  相似文献   

16.
We describe how a generic multi-period optimization-based decision support system (DSS) can be used for strategic planning in process industries. The DSS is built on five fundamental elements—materials, facilities, activities, storage areas, and time periods. It requires little direct knowledge of optimization techniques to be used effectively. Results based on real data from an aluminium company in India demonstrate significant potential for improvement in profits. We conclude with a comparison of similar studies in two other process industries.  相似文献   

17.
Managers increasingly face netsourcing decisions of whether and how to outsource selected software applications over the Internet. This paper illustrates the development of a netsourcing decision support system (DSS) that provides support for the first netsourcing decision of whether to netsource or not to do so. The development follows a five-stage methodology focusing on empirical modeling with internal validation during the development. It begins with identifying potential decision criteria from the literature followed by the collection of empirical data. Logistic regression is then used as a statistical method for selecting relevant decision criteria. Applying the logistic regression analysis to the dataset delivers competitive relevance and strategic vulnerability as relevant decision criteria. The development concludes with designing a core and a complementary DSS module. The paper critiques the developed DSS and its underlying development methodology. Recommendations for further research are offered.  相似文献   

18.
The paper uses a case study to illustrate a number of points in relation to strategy development and strategic control. A group decision support system — ‘Strategic Options Development and Analysis’ (SODA) — was used. The method focuses on the ‘linkages’ between strategic issues rather than on the issues themselves. The paper focuses upon the strategy review process. Three related elements of strategy' are considered as a part of the review: an evaluation of the extent to which the strategy has been implemented and is embedded in the organization; an evaluation of the assumptions underpinning the strategy; and an evaluation of the influence the strategy has on those at the ‘coal-face’.  相似文献   

19.
We propose a profit maximization model for the decision support system of a firm that wishes to establish or rationalize a multinational manufacturing and distribution network to produce and deliver finished goods from sources to consumers. The model simultaneously evaluates all traditional location factors in a manufacturing and distribution network design problem and sets intra-firm transfer prices that take account of tax and exchange rate differentials between countries. Utilizing the generalized Benders decomposition approach, we exploit the partition between the product flow and the cash allocation (i.e., the pricing and revenue assignment) decisions in the supply chain to find near optimal model solutions. Our proposed profit maximizing strategic planning model produces intuitive results. We offer computational experiments to illustrate the potential valuable guidance the model can provide to a firm's supply chain design strategic planning process.  相似文献   

20.
To extend two previous surveys of specific decision support system (DSS) applications over the period (January 1971–December 1994), we have conducted a follow-up survey covering the period between 1995 and 2001. A total of 210 published applications are identified. To examine the development pattern of a specific DSS over time, we analysed and summarized the survey results according to (1) the area of application, (2) the year of publication in each area of application, (3) the distribution of underlying tools in DSSs, (4) a classification based on Alter's taxonomy, and (5) the management level (operational, tactical, or strategic) for which the DSS was designed.  相似文献   

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