RAS方法可靠程度的实证分析

RAS法是进行投入产出消耗系数及时修正的重要工具 ,本文提出了评价系数修正可靠程度的标准并利用中国 1 987和 1 992年可比价投入产出表 ,对 RAS法的可靠程度进行了深入分析 ,比较了不同类型、不同部门分类消耗系数修正结果可靠程度的差别 ,从而揭示了 RAS修正结果中所蕴涵的相对可靠的信息 .     

基于人因可靠性的建筑工程质量管理模型分析

人因可靠性分析是风险分析理论的重要内容,通过对建筑工人的人因可靠性分析,建立了建筑工人人因可靠性数学模型,阐述了人因可靠性对建筑工程质量的影响.为工程管理方提高工程管理水平,避免人为差错影响工程质量提供参考.     

Corporate Planning and Its Use of O.R. in the N.C.B.: A Personal View

Moving from Operational Research to Corporate Planning within one organisation is a rather modest change, which nevertheless leads to a different perspective. While still an advisory function, Corporate Planning, to be successful, has to maintain itself at the centre of a `messy' system tackling `messy' problems. Holding on to a clear strategy in such circumstances is not only difficult but vital. The success of the strategy depends on its robustness and ability to adapt to new circumstances. Recent debates in the O.R. literature have focused on the importance of robustness and the nature of uncertainty using the paradigms of rational and bureaucratic processes. This is a useful perspective from which to view our activities and the relative roles of Operational Research and Corporate Planning, either separately or together. The term `mature' O.R. is used to differentiate research that has been built up over many years in the N.C.B. from the problem solving activity often used to characterise O.R. The challenge is to prevent maturity developing into old age.     

O.R. and Micros: O.R. Workers,Information Systems Analysts and the Challenge of the Micro

An assessment of the effects of microcomputing on O.R. should take account of the impact of micros on other professional groups involved in the provision of information and analysis to managers. The paper examines the likely changes in the role of information systems analysts associated with present trends in computer-based information systems and, by concentrating on the decision support systems area, argues that O.R. workers and systems analysts may find themselves competing for new roles in ways which make if difficult to set out the contribution of each in terms of what they do at present. A modest proposal is made for a new form of team for the development of decision support systems. This incorporates a division of skills which cuts across existing lines of differentiation and foresees an increased contribution on the part of user-managers.     

修理设备可更换且有修理延迟的N部件串联系统分析

假定部件的寿命服从指数分布,修理延迟时间和修理时间均服从任意分布,并且修理设备的寿命服从指数分布,其更换时间服从任意分布的情况下,利用马尔可夫更新过程理论和拉普拉斯变换工具,研究了修理有延迟且修理设备可更换的n部件串联可修系统,求得了系统的可用度和(0,t]时间内的平均故障次数.进一步,在定义修理设备“广义忙期”下,利用全概率分解,提出了一种新的分析技术,讨论了修理设备的可靠性指标,得到修理设备的一些重要可靠性结果.     

Safety stocks — an example of theory and practice in O.R.

The problem treated in this paper concerns the determination of safety stocks as a function of the degree of service. Approximative formulae are found for all the cases with non-negative reorder level and with standard deviation of the demand in the lead time not larger than the expected value of that demand. A flow diagram for determining safety stocks is given. In conclusion some remarks are made on the difference between theory and practice in OR, especially with respect to the problemshift triggered by the analysis.     

地方工科院校线性代数教学现状分析与教学对策

线性代数是大学工科专业重要的基础课程之一.在分析当今线性代数教学现状的基础上,对线性代数知识体系从三个方面做了重新梳理;提倡地方工科院校线性代数应该在几何观点下开展教学并给出了教学示范;同时倡导地方工科院校线性代数实用性教学.     

基于M~x/G/1排队模型的信息系统软件失效风险分析方法研究

研究首先对信息系统软件节点进行数学建模,然后根据M^x/G/1排队模型及分布函数,针对信息系统软件的可靠性,给出了由威胁利用软件脆弱性所导致的信息系统节点失效,以及由此所带来的损失风险计算模型,并以银行的柜面业务系统所安装的Windows和Linux操作系统为例,给出了详细的计算过程.风险分析模型突破了目前沿用的经典六因素模型,将系统可靠性的定量分析方法引入其中,从而有效的避免了风险分析方法中对主观因素的依赖.     

O.R. and the Systems Movement: Mappings and Conflicts

The ‘crisis’ debate in O.R. expresses concern at the divergence between textbook O.R. and what practitioners actually do. The debate is examined by comparing O.R., systems analysis and systems engineering. They are all wedded to logic in situations in which logic may not be paramount. The science in O.R. applies only to aggregate results, but the practitioner must deal with a specific situation. The tradition of systems thinking which emerged from organismic biology is described. It leads to a way out of the O.R. ‘crisis’, by providing a formal structuring of a paradigm of learning rather than optimization. O.R. can aspire to match natural science, and pass the problems by; or it can close the textbook/practitioner gap by changing its concept of ‘being scientific’.     

修理有延迟且修理设备可更换的多状态可修系统的可靠性分析

本文研究修理有延迟且修理设备可更换的单部件多状态可修系统.利用更新过程理论,得到了系统的可靠性指标.通过引入修理设备的"广义忙期",简洁地讨论了修理设备感兴趣的许多可靠性指标,得到一系列重要结果.     

双冗余通讯网络的可靠性分析与模型

在工业测控通讯网络单系统可靠性数学模型的基础上,针对重要测控领域中常用的双冗余通讯网建立其可靠性数学模型,并提出了双冗余网的可靠性分析方法