基于传导变换的马尔可夫链平稳分布的研究

利用可拓学中的参变量事元描述随机过程,引入了随机过程元的概念,建立了随机过程的可拓模型.利用随机事元刻画随机过程的状态,引入了随机状态元和随机状态元集的概念,给出了马尔可夫事元链模型.利用随机状态元的可拓性以及传导变换对马尔可夫链及其平稳分布进行了初步的拓展研究.     

随机事件与随机变量概率分布的拓展研究

给出了随机事元的拓展概率以及随机事元可拓集的概念.运用可拓集合、可拓变换与可拓推理等可拓学的理论与方法,对随机事件发生的概率与随机变量概率分布的变化作了初步的拓展研究.     

基于可拓变换的二维随机变量分布律的研究

建立了随机事元之间的关系事元,研究随机事件之间的关系.利用关系元刻画了两个随机事件之间的关系.运用可拓变换初步研究了二维离散型随机变量的分布律和边缘分布律的传导分布.     

B值随机元阵列矩完全收敛性的进一步讨论

完全收敛性是概率极限理论中的一个重要的概念.考虑了矩完全收敛性,在随机元阵列随机有界于某非负随机变量的条件下,通过引入函数类S,得到了B值行独立对称的随机元阵列矩完全收敛性的一些充分条件.同时得到了p型Banach空间中独立零均值随机元序列矩完全收敛性的一个充分条件.     

条件概率与归纳推理

条件概率是概率论中的一个重要概念,它在理解我们如何进行归纳推理和主观概率的形成时起着重要的作用.本文主要讨论条件概率与人们的这些行为的关联.     

概率赋准范空间的随机算子和有界性分析

运用概率度量的概念讨论了PQN空间中的随机算子,同时研究了随机算子的有界性,如拓扑有界算子、(概率)拟有界算子、D-有界算子等.经研究得到:在一定条件下,两个拓扑有界的PQN空间之间的拓扑有界算子构成一个PQN空间,两个PQN空间之间的D-有界线性算子构成一个向量空间.     

条件期望与三变量独立性的两个充要条件

随机事件的独立性、随机变量的独立性是概率统计中的重要概念,不少学者都在这方面有所讨论.本文作者讨论了三维连续型随机变量（X,Y,Z）中三个分量X,Y,Z的相互独立性、条件独立性,得到三个引理.利用条件期望及三个引理作者给出了三变量相互独立的两个充要条件.     

计算数学期望和概率的条件化方法

借助于条件数学期望和随机事件A的示性函数IA,通过对随机变量的适当"条件化"处理,应用全期望公式和推广的全概率公式,讨论了计算数学期望和概率的条件化方法.     

故障概率模型的建立与估算定理的推证

基于网络部件故障概率及其更新的随机过程,应用RRM和CTMC分析马尔科夫概率模型MPM的建立,讨论在基本条件下的故障概率重要定理和可靠性概率估计的应用公式.     

一类推广的带干扰风险模型的条件破产概率

本文首先利用随机时刻变换推广了一类带干扰的风险模型,然后讨论这类风险模型的条件破产概率.研究表明条件破产概率相对于无条件破产概率能提供更多有用信息,这对保险公司及时调整投资和管理策略是很有帮助的.     

模糊概率随机变量

研究了第二类模糊随机变量——具有清晰事件、模糊概率的随机变量的数学描述。在区间概率的基础上,利用模糊分解定理给出了概率模糊数集是可行的条件,进一步给出了具有模糊概率的随机变量及模糊概率随机变量的模糊分布函数和模糊分布列的定义和性质。提出并证明了具有模糊概率运算封闭性的模糊概率分解定理。研究了模糊概率随机变量的模糊数学期望和模糊方差的定义和性质。所有关于模糊概率随机变量的数学描述都具有模糊概率运算的封闭性,这为完善模糊概率的运算方法打下了基础。     

Determining functionals for random partial differential equations

Determining functionals are tools to describe the finite dimensional long-term dynamics of infinite dimensional dynamical systems. There also exist several applications to infinite dimensional random dynamical systems. In these applications the convergence condition of the trajectories of an infinite dimensional random dynamical system with respect to a finite set of linear functionals is assumed to be either in mean or exponential with respect to the convergence almost surely. In contrast to these ideas we introduce a convergence concept which is based on the convergence in probability. By this ansatz we get rid of the assumption of exponential convergence. In addition, setting the random terms to zero we obtain usual deterministic results.We apply our results to the 2D Navier-Stokes equations forced by a white noise.     

基于评价信息随机化的群体评价方法与应用

针对群体评价中共识集结的相关问题,从仿真的视角讨论了评价信息随机化的群体共识聚合求解方法。首先,面向实数类型的评价信息,将精确性的数据给予一定的宽松性处理,进一步结合正态分布的3σ原则,利用随机模拟的方式集结出带有概率特征的可能性排序;其次,面向区间数类型的评价信息,整合出各子区间发生概率不同的区间数评价信息,在充分随机模拟的情况下,给出了带有优胜概率特征的可能性排序。最后,通过相应的算例进行求解分析,说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。基于群体共识视角,针对实数和区间数两种类型的评价信息,分别进行相应的随机化处理,并为进一步探索区间数的分布形式提供了一种新的研究思路。     

Testing behavior of the reversed hazard rate

The concept of reversed hazard rate of a random life is defined as the ratio between the life probability density to its distribution function. This concept plays a role in analyzing censored data and is applicable in such areas as Forensic Sciences. In this investigation, we address the question of testing the reversed hazard rate where the null is that the reversed hazard rate is an assigned function while the alternative is that it is decreasing but not equal to the null function. Two approaches are discussed: one is based on the empirical distribution function while the other is based on the celebrated kernel methods. The limiting distributions of the test statistics are given and its asymptotic Pittman efficiencies are evaluated for well-known alternatives when the null distribution is exponential. Some other related problems are also addressed.     

随机多目标规划区间交互过程及其应用

针对随机多目标规划问题中目标函数含有连续型随机变量的情形,设计一种基于概率有效性意义下的区间交互过程,将概率有效性与多目标问题理想点进行有机结合,有效辅助决策者寻求愿意承受的风险水平,并进行决策,简化了随机多目标优化问题。最后通过实例说明该交互过程的作用。     

Central limit theorems under weak dependence

This article is motivated by a central limit theorem of Ibragimov for strictly stationary random sequences satisfying a mixing condition based on maximal correlations. Here we show that the mixing condition can be weakened slightly, and construct a class of stationary random sequences covered by the new version of the theorem but not Ibragimov's original version. Ibragimov's theorem is also extended to triangular arrays of random variables, and this is applied to some kernel-type estimates of probability density.     

Description of random fields by means of one-point finite-conditional distributions

The aim of this note is to investigate the relationship between strictly positive random fields on a lattice ? ^ν and the conditional probability measures at one point given the values on a finite subset of the lattice ? ^ν . We exhibit necessary and sufficient conditions for a one-point finite-conditional system to correspond to a unique strictly positive probability measure. It is noteworthy that the construction of the aforementioned probability measure is done explicitly by some simple procedure. Finally, we introduce a condition on the one-point finite conditional system that is sufficient for ensuring the mixing of the underlying random field.     

Random generation of tournaments and asymmetric graphs with given out-degrees

In this paper, we first present a polynomial algorithm which computes a random tournament with given out-degrees; any tournament having these out-degrees has a nonzero probability to be computed. Then we give a necessary and sufficient condition for a sequence of numbers to be the out-degrees (or similarly the in-degrees) of an asymmetric graph. Lastly, using the above algorithm and this characterization, we design a second polynomial algorithm to compute a random asymmetric graph with given out-degrees, and any asymmetric graph with these out-degrees has a nonzero probability to be found.     

一个与广义二项级数有关的随机游动问题

利用广义二项级数本文给出了随机格点最终到达给定边界的概率.     

一个与广义二项级数有关的随机游动问题

In this paper,based on the method of generalized binomial series,the probability that a random lattice point touches a given boundary line is obtained.