Optimal maintenance policy and planned sale date for a machine subject to deterioration and random failure

The decision problem concerning the optimization of the maintenance policy and the selection of the sale date for a machine subject to deterioration and random failure is considered from a control-theoretic viewpoint. The originally stochastic optimal control problem is converted to a deterministic optimal control problem with the coefficients of the state and control variables modified in the performance index. The maximum principle is applied to derive the conditions for the optimal maintenance policy and for the optimal planned sale date. Economic interpretations of these conditions are presented in terms of marginal costs and revenues. An explicit solution is found analytically for the problem in the special case when the failure probability is independent of maintenance. The case of exponentially distributed life time for the machine is analyzed in full detail. Finally, the results are illustrated by an example.     

Optimal inspection of a complex system subject to periodic and opportunistic inspections and preventive replacements

This paper proposes two optimization models for the periodic inspection of a system with “hard-type” and “soft-type” components. Given that the failures of hard-type components are self-announcing, the component is instantly repaired or replaced, but the failures of soft-type components can only be detected at inspections. A system can operate with a soft failure, but its performance may be reduced. Although a system may be periodically inspected, a hard failure creates an opportunity for additional inspection (opportunistic inspection) of all soft-type components. Two optimization models are discussed in the paper. In the first, soft-type components undergo both periodic and opportunistic inspections to detect possible failures. In the second, hard-type components undergo periodic inspections and are preventively replaced depending on their condition at inspection. Soft-type and hard-type components are either minimally repaired or replaced when they fail. Minimal repair or replacement depends on the state of a component at failure; this, in turn, depends on its age. The paper formulates objective functions for the two models and derives recursive equations for their required expected values. It develops a simulation algorithm to calculate these expected values for a complex model. Several examples are used to illustrate the models and the calculations. The data used in the examples are adapted from a real case study of a hospital’s maintenance data for a general infusion pump.     

Optimal systems for equipment maintenance and replacement under Markovian deterioration

Deterioration of equipment is modeled as a multistate discrete time controlled Markov process. The states are classified according to the degree of deterioration. The problem of design of optimal systems for equipment maintenance and replacement is considered when the decision-maker may take, in each stage, one of many available maintenance actions, classified according to their “stochastic effectiveness”; no action and replacement are included as alternatives. It is assumed that the transition probabilities satisfy two conditions which effectively describe a trend for monotonically increasing expected deterioration and rate of deterioration. Under these assumptions it is proved in the paper that the optimal (cost minimizing) decision system in an infinite horizon is of the control limit rule type, rapidly obtained by policy improvement algorithms. A numerical example is presented for a specific practical application; detailed data are available from the authors on request.     

Optimal performance analysis of manufacturing systems subject to tool availability

This paper deals with the approximate performance analysis and optimal allocation of spare tools at work stations in manufacturing systems that are subject to the availability of tools to process jobs.     

Single machine scheduling with time-dependent linear deterioration and rate-modifying maintenance

We study single machine scheduling problems with linear time-dependent deterioration effects and maintenance activities. Maintenance periods (MPs) are included into the schedule, so that the machine, that gets worse during the processing, can be restored to a better state. We deal with a job-independent version of the deterioration effects, that is, all jobs share a common deterioration rate. However, we introduce a novel extension to such models and allow the deterioration rates to change after every MP. We study several versions of this generalized problem and design a range of polynomial-time solution algorithms that enable the decision-maker to determine possible sequences of jobs and MPs in the schedule, so that the makespan objective can be minimized. We show that all problems reduce to a linear assignment problem with a product matrix and can be solved by methods very similar to those used for solving problems with positional effects.     

Optimal maintenance of systems with Markovian mission and deterioration

We consider the maintenance of a mission-based system that is designed to perform missions consisting of a random sequence of phases or stages with random durations. A finite state Markov process describes the mission process. The age or deterioration process of the system is described by another finite state Markov process whose generator depends on the phases of the mission. We discuss optimal repair and optimal replacement problems, and characterize the optimal policies under some monotonicity assumptions. We also provide numerical illustrations to demonstrate the structure of the optimal policies.     

Optimal two-layer selection policy for a flexible manufacturing system

This paper deals with the selection problem in a manufacturing system. The manufacturing system consists of a flexible manufacturing cellC ₀ which feedsM flexible manufacturing cellsC _1i ,i=1, ...,M. In addition, each cellC _1i ,i=1, ...,M, is feeding several production lines. Sufficient conditions on optimal feedback selection policies for theM+1 flexible manufacturing cells are derived. These selection policies maximize the probability of the system output reaching some demand before any of the system buffers is being overflowed. A numerical study is conducted.     

Maintenance scheduling of a protection system subject to imperfect inspection and replacement

An inspection and replacement policy for a protection system is described in which the inspection process is subject to error, and false positives (false alarms) and false negatives are possible. We develop two models: one in which a false positive implies renewal of the protection system; the other not. These models are motivated by inspection of a protection system on the production line of a beverage manufacturer. False negatives reduce the efficiency of inspection. Another notion of imperfect maintenance is also modelled: that of poor installation of a component at replacement. These different aspects of maintenance quality interact: false alarms can, in a worst case scenario, lead to the systematic and unnecessary replacement of good components by poor components, thus reducing the availability of the system. The models also allow situations in which maintenance quality differs between alternative maintainers to be investigated.     

Reliability-centred maintenance analysis for a complex military system

The preventive-maintenance (PM) programme is a very importantdocument in the life cycle of a piece of equipment or system.The traditional method used within China to determine PM programmeshas many disadvantages, and some tasks in old programmes haveproved to be unnecessary. Through analysing a complex militarysystem (X system) by means of the reliability-centred maintenance(RCM) analysis, it is found that RCM analysis is more successfulthan the traditional method in deciding the PM programme. Thenew PM programme does not include unnecessary PM tasks includedin the old programme. Thus the performance of the X system isenhanced, because the cost is reduced without compromising availability.It is believed that RCM analysis in military industry will makea valuable contribution to the maintenance of weapon systemsand equipment.     

Coordinated maintenance in a multi-component system with compound Poisson deterioration

This paper proposes a coordinated maintenance model in a multi-component system with compound Poisson deterioration. The main contribution is a policy-iteration approach for Semi-Markov processes that optimizes the threshold at which the component is eligible for preventive maintenance if another component requires corrective maintenance. The methodology is novel as we develop explicit expressions for the policy evaluation and prove these expressions to satisfy the set of linear equations which characterize traditional policy evaluation. By doing so, long-run average cost savings are achieved, since setup costs can be shared.     

Optimal Bayesian fault prediction scheme for a partially observable system subject to random failure

A new method for predicting failures of a partially observable system is presented. System deterioration is modeled as a hidden, 3-state continuous time homogeneous Markov process. States 0 and 1, which are not observable, represent good and warning conditions, respectively. Only the failure state 2 is assumed to be observable. The system is subject to condition monitoring at equidistant, discrete time epochs. The vector observation process is stochastically related to the system state. The objective is to develop a method for optimally predicting impending system failures. Model parameters are estimated using EM algorithm and a cost-optimal Bayesian fault prediction scheme is proposed. The method is illustrated using real data obtained from spectrometric analysis of oil samples collected at regular time epochs from transmission units of heavy hauler trucks used in mining industry. A comparison with other methods is given, which illustrates effectiveness of our approach.     

A dyadic age-replacement policy for a periodically inspected equipment item subject to random deterioration

A periodic review replacement system is considered. The amount of deterioration over successive periods forms a sequence of i.i.d. random variables. A replacement policy of the dyadic type is in effect whereby the used equipment item is discarded and immediately replaced by a new identical equipment item if at the end of a period the old equipment has service aged by an amount in excess of S or has been in operation for exactly N periods whichever comes first. Using a theorem on renewal reward processes, an expression for the total steady-state expected cost per period is derived, consisting of a fixed replacement cost and a linear cost of operation. Optimal values of S and N that minimize this steady state cost are computed for a few numerical examples, when the service aging per period has a gamma distribution.     

A dispatching rule-based approach to production scheduling in a printed circuit board manufacturing system

This paper focuses on a production-scheduling problem in a printed circuit board (PCB) manufacturing system that produces multiple product types with different due dates and different manufacturing processes. In the PCB manufacturing system, there is a number of serial workstations, and there are multiple parallel machines at each workstation. Also, setup operations are required at certain workstations or machines, and some product types have re-entrant flows. We develop new dispatching rules for scheduling at each workstation, considering the special features of PCB manufacturing. With the dispatching rules, we determine not only the start time of each lot at a machine but also the batch size of each product at each machine. Simulation experiments are carried out to test the performance of the production-scheduling method and dispatching rules devised in this study. Results show that the production-scheduling method suggested in this study performs better than methods with well-known dispatching rules and heuristic algorithms for lot sizing in terms of the total tardiness of orders.     

A hybrid maintenance model with imperfect inspection for a system with deterioration and Poisson failure

A new maintenance model for a system with both deterioration and Poisson failures is proposed. In this model, at any time-instant G _S and when the system is operating, one of the following decisions may be taken: (1) stop the system to perform a scheduled minimal maintenance; (2) stop the system to perform an inspection; and (3) no action and allow the system to go on with its operation. Following an inspection, based on the deterioration condition of the system, one of the following decisions may be taken: (a) if the system is in a ‘good’ condition, no maintenance action is taken and a number of periodic minimal maintenance activities are scheduled, starting T1 later; (b) if the system is in an ‘intermediate’ condition, a minimal maintenance is performed and an inspection is scheduled for T2 later (T2 < T1); and (c) if the system is in a ‘bad’ condition, a major maintenance is performed and a number of periodic minimal maintenances are scheduled, starting T1 later. In addition, a deterioration failure is restored by a major repair and a Poisson failure is restored by a minimal repair. Generalised stochastic Petri nets are used to represent and analyse the model, which represents a ‘composite’ maintenance strategy. Based on maximisation of the throughput of the system the benefit of this model compared to (1) an equivalent periodic inspection model and (2) an equivalent planned scheduled maintenance model, is demonstrated. This study presents a new hybrid model with a general framework for incorporating various types of maintenance policies. Also by incorporation of a number of features, this model will be more applicable to real world technical systems (complex systems), although it can be applied to individual components that are part of a complex system.     

A multilevel machine and vehicle scheduling in a flexible manufacturing system

The paper presents a multilevel decision model for simultaneous machine and vehicle scheduling in a flexible manufacturing system. The system is composed of various machine types and a set of automated guided vehicles that permit each part to move between any pair of machines. The upper level of the decision model involves machine loading and part routing for which a bicriterion integer formulation is presented with the objective of balancing machine workloads and intermachine flows of parts. The lower level involves simultaneous scheduling of machines and vehicles for which a period-by-period heuristic is proposed based on a family of complex dispatching rules. The scheduling objective is to meet all part type requirements in a minimum time. Computational examples are included to illustrate the approach proposed.     

Optimal maintenance policy in a multistate deteriorating standby system

An optimal maintenance policy for a multistate deteriorating standby system is proposed in this study. Traditionally, a system could only presume two operational states: success or failure, and the maintenance policy is to determine the optimal number of standby components, subject to factors such as maintenance capability, cost of the standby items, etc., so as to minimize the operational cost. This study considers a more general production system in which progressive deterioration is incurred during the operating time, hence resulting in degrading performance. By modeling the system as a multistate deteriorating system, an optimal maintenance policy is obtained by determining the optimal number of standby components required in the system and the optimal state in which the replacement of deteriorating components shall be made.     

Optimal maintenance of a production-inventory system with idle periods

In this paper we consider a production-inventory system in which an input generating installation supplies a buffer with a raw material and a production unit pulls the raw material from the buffer with constant rate. The installation deteriorates in time and the problem of its optimal preventive maintenance is considered. It is assumed that the installation after the completion of its maintenance remains idle until the buffer is evacuated. Under a suitable cost structure it is shown that the average-cost optimal policy for fixed buffer content is of control-limit type, i.e. it prescribes a preventive maintenance of the installation if and only if its degree of deterioration is greater than or equal to a critical level. Using the usual regenerative argument, the average cost of a control-limit policy is computed exactly and then, the optimal control-limit policy is determined. Furthermore, the stationary probabilities of the system under the optimal policy are computed.     

Optimal hydropower generation scheduling for a cascade

This paper presents a method for short-term generation schedulingin a multiplereservoir river system. The reservoir dynamicsare described using the network flow balance equations, takinginto account the time delays of water travelling from one reservoirto the next. The generating characteristics of a hydropowerplant are represented by a linear model which depends upon thenumber of generators committed. Nonlinear head effects on systemgeneration are included. Since the power function depends onthe number of generators committed at any given time, we obtaina mixed integer-real LP problem. This is solved by using MINOS,a well developed LP package for real large-scale mathematicalprogramming problems, together with a specially designed heuristicscheme for finding the integer number of generators committedin a plant at a particular time step. The scheme is evaluatedby examining several case studies.