Managing Cost Overrun Risk in Project Funding Allocation

This paper discusses decision making of project funding allocation under uncertain project costs. Because project costs are uncertain and funding allocations may not necessarily match the costs required, each project is inherently subject to a cost overrun risk (COR). In this paper, a model is proposed in which project cost is treated as a factor with a probability density function. The decision maker then allocates the total funding to the projects while minimizing a weighted sum of mean and variance of the COR of the project portfolio. Some properties of project COR are derived and interpreted. Optimal funding allocation, in relationship to factors such as various project sizes and riskiness, project interdependency, and the decision maker’s risk preference, is analyzed. The proposed funding allocation model can be integrated with project selection decision-making and provides a basis for more effective project control.     

An integrated decision support approach for project investors in risky and uncertain environments

In project investment decisions, it is often assumed that estimated values of project parameters are certain and they would not deviate by the time. However, project parameters normally change during a life cycle of the project. Therefore, an existence of a deviation or gap between forecasted values and actual values is inevitable. Because of the uncertainty of the future, forecasting the true and exact values of project parameters is almost impossible. In this study, an integrated decision support approach based on simulation and fuzzy set theory is proposed for project investors in risky and uncertain environments. This approach determines the risk levels of the projects and helps investors to make investment decisions. In the scope of the study, a flowchart is presented to guide to decision maker in different situations of information uncertainty that belongs to project parameter values. Via this flowchart, the values of project parameters can be chosen depending on how they are determined (deterministic, stochastic or fuzzy) by project analyst. Besides, calculating and analyzing the project risk in all possible situations would be easier. Illustrative examples are given to demonstrate the application of this approach.     

系统集成项目的工期风险传递算法及评价控制

系统集成作为项目来管理越来越引起人们的关注。由于大的系统项目是由一个个具体的子项目集成的。且每个子项目都有其自身的特殊性和不确定性。为整个项目的实施带来了一定的困难和风险。而系统集成项目的工期是决定项目能否成功并获得预期收益的至关重要的因素。因此如何有效地进行工期风险评价控制成为一个非常关键的问题。基于此，本提出了一种风险传递算法。从而得出系统集成项目的总工期风险。并进一步从关键风险单元的识别人手进行工期风险的调整、优化和控制。其目的是为系统集成项目的成功实施提供有效的决策支持。     

A game theoretical approach to sharing penalties and rewards in projects

This paper analyzes situations in which a project consisting of several activities is not realized according to plan. If the project is expedited, a reward arises. Analogously, a penalty arises if the project is delayed. This paper considers the case of arbitrary nondecreasing reward and penalty functions on the total expedition and delay, respectively. Attention is focused on how to divide the total reward (penalty) among the activities: the core of a corresponding cooperative project game determines a set of stable allocations of the total reward (penalty). In the definition of project games, surplus (cost) sharing mechanisms are used to take into account the specific characteristics of the reward (penalty) function at hand. It turns out that project games are related to bankruptcy and taxation games. This relation allows us to establish nonemptiness of the core of project games.     

可抢占条件下的项目调度研究综述

可抢占条件下的项目调度通过暂时中断某些活动的执行,释放资源给更重要的活动,从而优化项目的工期、成本等绩效指标。可抢占项目调度问题以其重要的理论价值和应用背景,受到了学界和业界的广泛关注。对国内外可抢占项目调度的研究成果进行了系统性总结与梳理,综述了可抢占项目调度问题的数学模型及其求解算法,总结了可抢占项目调度问题的一些扩展问题和应用情况,最后指出了未来进一步的研究方向。     

项目网络中考虑支配与扩散关系的组合决策

单纯侧重项目自身属性而不考虑项目关联性以及由项目衍生而来的技术、经验/信息扩散对项目组合决策时的影响,易导致决策偏差,低估具有潜在技术先导性项目的价值。对此,引用复杂网络理论,以项目关联性的视角,将项目间支配和扩散关系分别抽象为有向加权网络,运用K-shell分解方法构建项目组合网络中基于支配关系的项目影响力模型以及技术、经验/信息在项目间扩散传播的模型。然后,基于PageRank算法,综合考虑项目间支配与扩散关系,建立了项目优先级排序决策模型。最后,通过算例分析说明了该模型与算法的可行性与有效性,为企业项目组合决策提供了有益的参考。     

Baseline value specification and sensitivity analysis in multiattribute project portfolio selection

A key issue in applying multi-attribute project portfolio models is specifying the baseline value – a parameter which defines how valuable not implementing a project is relative to the range of possible project values. In this paper we present novel baseline value specification techniques which admit incomplete preference statements and, unlike existing techniques, make it possible to model problems where the decision maker would prefer to implement a project with the least preferred performance level in each attribute. Furthermore, we develop computational methods for identifying the optimal portfolios and the value-to-cost -based project rankings for all baseline values. We also show how these results can be used to (i) analyze how sensitive project and portfolio decision recommendations are to variations in the baseline value and (ii) provide project decision recommendations in a situation where only incomplete information about the baseline value is available.     

基于FCE的建设项目环境效益可研指标的应用——以高速公路建设项目为例

应用FCE进行建设项目环境效益可研指标体系综合评价是一条科学精简的途径.高速公路建设项目对项目沿线环境的影响典型而尖锐,以高速公路建设项目为例分析FCE在建设项目环境效益可研指标中的应用,并以福银高速公路一期工程尤溪段施工期环境效益可研为例建立应用模型.     

基于合作的工程项目风险模糊评价新方法

工程项目的目标风险包括工期风险、费用风险、质量风险、安全风险和环境风险,研究已经表明,同一风险因素会同时对不同的目标产生影响.另外,工程项目管理各方在进行目标管理过程中的合作性也会对目标的最终完成产生影响.因此,将同一风险因素对不同目标的影响以不同的权重表示,并将项目管理各方的合作性作为目标风险的影响因素引入到风险评价中,利用模糊推理的方法建立了基于合作的工程项目风险评价模型,提出了工程项目风险分析的一种新方法.     

基于分阶段求优的IT项目进度计划方法

本文针对IT项目实施过程的不确定性和项目资源的动态性，提出了一种基于分阶段求优的IT项目进度计划方法。该方法根据关键路径法将项目划分为着干个阶段，每个阶段视为一个独立的任务，对每一个独立的任务建模并抽象化为一个马尔可夫决策过程，利用动态规划的方法对每一个任务求解最优调度策略，以最小化该阶段的期望费用，为制定IT项目进度计划提供依据。     

A multicriteria decision model for assigning priority classes to activities in project management

Problems related to the management of construction projects are addressed in many studies. Falling behind schedule and being over budget are examples of bad results, due to the uncertainties and the dynamic environment of the construction process. This study proposes a decision model for helping project managers to focus on the main tasks of a project network during the life cycle of a project based on a MCDA (multiple criteria decision analysis) method. The model assigns priorities classes to activities in project management, taking into account several points of view. The model is based on the ELECTRE TRI-C method, which permits activities to be assigned to categories. As the environment is very dynamic, the model was built taking into consideration changes that may occur while a project is being carried out, and therefore the model must be reassessed during the project life cycle. Furthermore, the model supports a decision making environment where responsibilities are distributed amongst project team members and it brings the benefit of developing disciplines that lead to the team??s greater effectiveness. An application of the model, based on a realistic situation, is presented in the context of a construction project in order to demonstrate the use of the model. The results show that by using the model, managers can improve their performance with regard to controlling project activities.     

Decision-making on prioritization of projects in higher education institutions using the analytic network process approach

The prioritization of projects in higher education institutions is a complex decision-making problem. In this paper we deal with two scenarios within Higher Education Institutions. The first scenario is a need to prepare an action plan for activities that will result in the implementation of a portfolio of projects at the institutional level. The second scenario is making a decision on whether to start a new project application, and if so, which project to choose in a situation where project teams have several project ideas and limited resources. The purpose of the paper is to show how to include corporate strategy in the decision-making process and use the Analytic Network Process as a multiple criteria decision-making methodology which can be used in solving project selection problems.     

Project games

This paper studies situations in which a project consisting of several activities is not executed as planned. It is divided into three parts. The first part analyzes the case where the activities may be delayed, this possibly induces a delay on the project as a whole with additional costs. Associated delayed project games are defined and are shown to have a nonempty core. The second part considers the case where the activities may be expedited, this possibly induces an expedition of the project as a whole creating profits. Corresponding expedited project games are introduced and are shown to be convex. The third and last part studies situations where some activities may be delayed and some activities may be expedited. Related project games are defined and shown to have a nonempty core.      

Evaluating Project Completion Times When Activity Times are Erlang Distributed

One aspect of project planning risk assessment is to do with the uncertainty of the project duration. This uncertainty can be quantified by determining the project completion time distribution. A brief review of the existing literature on project duration risk assessment methodologies is given and their advantages and disadvantages evaluated. A development of the moments method based on Erlang distribution of activity times provides an accurate estimate of a project completion time distribution for a large range of practical situations and also is the basis upon which multi-modal input distributions of activity times can be handled. The method is assessed by a number of illustrative examples.     

柔性工期下的资源受限项目调度双目标优化研究

在项目调度过程中,活动工期应根据项目截止工期以及资源供给情况进行合理设置,而在传统的资源受限项目调度问题(RCPSP)中,活动的工期往往是已知且固定的,这在一定程度上限制了项目调度的灵活性。多模式下的项目调度方式虽然弥补了这一缺点,但其提供的工期-资源组合种类固定且有限,并不一定能保证包含最优的工期-资源组合。本文将活动工期作为项目调度问题的决策变量,允许其在一定范围内取值。这种柔性工期调度方式虽然增加了项目调度难度,但提高了项目调度灵活性,同时可以起到压缩项目完工时间的作用。为验证柔性工期调度方式对项目工期和成本的影响,本文建立了工期-成本双目标权衡优化模型,设计了两阶段嵌套算法(NSGAⅡ-RS)对其求解,实验证明,柔性工期调度策略是一种鲁棒性较好的项目完工时间压缩策略。     

高速公路PPP项目股权结构、质量水平与VFM的关系研究

高速公路PPP项目属于具有经营收益的准经营性项目,政府制定有效的激励措施,可以鼓励项目公司发挥专业的建设和运营能力,提高项目质量和收益水平。本文以VFM作为政府绩效评价指标,通过构建完全信息静态博弈模型,研究了PPP项目股权结构、质量水平与VFM之间的关系,结果发现:虽然社会资本较多持有项目公司股份有助于提高VFM水平,但随着社会资本方股权比例的增加,项目质量水平在不断降低,所以政府应该将社会资本方的持股比例控制在一定范围内,在保证项目质量的同时达到VFM最大化,从而降低政府方风险,提高社会效益。在高速公路PPP项目中,政府应优化股权决策,激励项目公司改善项目质量和水平,为公私双方带来良好的绩效水平。     

独立项目的久期预估与融资优化研究

项目投资与融资匹配程度,不仅关系到项目资金成本的大小,还体现对项目利率风险的对冲。基于债券久期的概念内涵,提出了项目久期与融资结构久期的概念及计算方法。以具体项目的投融资为案例进行研究,对案例公司已拟定的针对独立项目的债券融资方案进行投融资久期匹配、各期现金流匹配评价,并从市场利率曲线中发现融资成本优化空间,从投融资久期差及各期投融资现金流量差中找到优化融资的方案。以此提出结论：项目久期与融资结构久期的匹配是降低项目利率风险的重要手段;应综合融资结构久期与项目久期、现金流大小选择融资结构。     

Dynamic monitoring and control of software project effort based on an effort buffer

The improvement to the monitoring and control efficiency of software project effort is a challenge for project management research. We propose to overcome this challenge through the use of a model for the buffer determination and monitoring of software project effort. This software project effort buffer was originally determined on the basis of a risk management factor analysis with total consideration for project managers’ risk preference. The effort buffer was next allocated to different stages according to the buffer allocation cardinal. An effort deviation monitoring and control model was then established based on the grey prediction model, including the establishment of a deviation monitoring and control model, a simulation test of the accuracy and the deviation prediction algorithm flow chart. The method system was eventually applied to an actual project and compared with the actual project data. The results show that the relative error test accuracy of the proposed model is qualified according to the test standard of the grey model, signifying that it could be used for the prediction of effort deviation and decision-making. The proposed model could use the dynamic control system to monitor and control software project effort in an effective manner.     

Decision-making in Government

The economic assessment of a research and development project is an important factor in planning and carrying out a project but its value depends on the forecasts on which it is based. The reasons why probabilistic methods are considered inappropriate when forecasting for novel projects are discussed and an alternative technique using credibility forecasts is described. Credibility forecasts for stages of a project are transformed into pairs of standardized “focus” forecasts from which are obtained two focus cash flow curves for the complete project. Two derived focus values of any suitable economic criterion are compared with a neutral value of the criterion to evaluate the attractiveness of the project and the degree of risk involved. The use of this technique for the initial assessment of a project and for reassessment at later stages is discussed and the procedure is illustrated by an example.     

Project Scheduling under Time Dependent Costs – A Branch and Bound Algorithm

In a given project network, execution of each activity in normal duration requires utilization of certain resources. If faster execution of an activity is desired then additional resources at extra cost would be required. Given a project network, the cost structure for each activity and a planning horizon, the project compression problem is concerned with the determination of optimal schedule (duration) of performing each activity while satisfying given restrictions and minimizing the total cost of project execution. This paper considers the project compression problem with time dependent cost structure for each activity. The planning horizon is divided into several regular time intervals over which the cost structure of an activity may vary. But the cost structure of the activities remains the same (constant) within a time interval. Key events of the project attract penalty for finishing earlier or later than the corresponding target times. The objective is to find an optimal project schedule minimizing the total project cost. We present a mathematical model for this problem, develop some heuristics and an exact branch and bound algorithm. Using simulated problems we provide an insight into the computational performances of heuristics and the branch and bound algorithm.