Bounds for the price of a European-style Asian option in a binary tree model

Inspired by the ideas of Rogers and Shi [J. Appl. Prob. 32 (1995) 1077], Chalasani et al. [J. Comput. Finance 1(4) (1998) 11] derived accurate lower and upper bounds for the price of a European-style Asian option with continuous averaging over the full lifetime of the option, using a discrete-time binary tree model. In this paper, we consider arithmetic Asian options with discrete sampling and we generalize their method to the case of forward starting Asian options. In this case with daily time steps, the method of Chalasani et al. is still very accurate but the computation can take a very long time on a PC when the number of steps in the binomial tree is high. We derive analytical lower and upper bounds based on the approach of Kaas et al. [Insurance: Math. Econ. 27 (2000) 151] for bounds for stop-loss premiums of sums of dependent random variables, and by conditioning on the value of underlying asset at the exercise date. The comonotonic upper bound corresponds to an optimal superhedging strategy. By putting in less information than Chalasani et al. the bounds lose some accuracy but are still very good and they are easily computable and moreover the computation on a PC is fast. We illustrate our results by different numerical experiments and compare with bounds for the Black and Scholes model [J. Pol. Econ. 7 (1973) 637] found in another paper [Bounds for the price of discretely sampled arithmetic Asian options, Working paper, Ghent University, 2002]. We notice that the intervals of Chalasani et al. do not always lie within the Black and Scholes intervals. We have proved that our bounds converge to the corresponding bounds in the Black and Scholes model. Our numerical illustrations also show that the hedging error is small if the Asian option is in the money. If the option is out of the money, the price of the superhedging strategy is not as adequate, but still lower than the straightforward hedge of buying one European option with the same exercise price.     

Moment matching approximation of Asian basket option prices

In this paper we propose some moment matching pricing methods for European-style discrete arithmetic Asian basket options in a Black & Scholes framework. We generalize the approach of [M. Curran, Valuing Asian and portfolio by conditioning on the geometric mean price, Management Science 40 (1994) 1705-1711] and of [G. Deelstra, J. Liinev, M. Vanmaele, Pricing of arithmetic basket options by conditioning, Insurance: Mathematics & Economics 34 (2004) 55-57] in several ways. We create a framework that allows for a whole class of conditioning random variables which are normally distributed. We moment match not only with a lognormal random variable but also with a log-extended-skew-normal random variable. We also improve the bounds of [G. Deelstra, I. Diallo, M. Vanmaele, Bounds for Asian basket options, Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics 218 (2008) 215-228]. Numerical results are included and on the basis of our numerical tests, we explain which method we recommend depending on moneyness and time-to-maturity.     

Static super-replicating strategies for a class of exotic options

In this paper, we investigate static super-replicating strategies for European-type call options written on a weighted sum of asset prices. This class of exotic options includes Asian options and basket options among others. We assume that there exists a market where the plain vanilla options on the different assets are traded and hence their prices can be observed in the market. Both the infinite market case (where prices of the plain vanilla options are available for all strikes) and the finite market case (where only a finite number of plain vanilla option prices are observed) are considered. We prove that the finite market case converges to the infinite market case when the number of observed plain vanilla option prices tends to infinity.We show how to construct a portfolio consisting of the plain vanilla options on the different assets, whose pay-off super-replicates the pay-off of the exotic option. As a consequence, the price of the super-replicating portfolio is an upper bound for the price of the exotic option. The super-hedging strategy is model-free in the sense that it is expressed in terms of the observed option prices on the individual assets, which can be e.g. dividend paying stocks with no explicit dividend process known. This paper is a generalization of the work of Simon et al. [Simon, S., Goovaerts, M., Dhaene, J., 2000. An easy computable upper bound for the price of an arithmetic Asian option. Insurance Math. Econom. 26 (2–3), 175–184] who considered this problem for Asian options in the infinite market case. Laurence and Wang [Laurence, P., Wang, T.H., 2004. What’s a basket worth? Risk Mag. 17, 73–77] and Hobson et al. [Hobson, D., Laurence, P., Wang, T.H., 2005. Static-arbitrage upper bounds for the prices of basket options. Quant. Fin. 5 (4), 329–342] considered this problem for basket options, in the infinite as well as in the finite market case.As opposed to Hobson et al. [Hobson, D., Laurence, P., Wang, T.H., 2005. Static-arbitrage upper bounds for the prices of basket options. Quant. Fin. 5 (4), 329–342] who use Lagrange optimization techniques, the proofs in this paper are based on the theory of integral stochastic orders and on the theory of comonotonic risks.     

Bounds for the price of discrete arithmetic Asian options

In this paper the pricing of European-style discrete arithmetic Asian options with fixed and floating strike is studied by deriving analytical lower and upper bounds. In our approach we use a general technique for deriving upper (and lower) bounds for stop-loss premiums of sums of dependent random variables, as explained in Kaas et al. (Ins. Math. Econom. 27 (2000) 151–168), and additionally, the ideas of Rogers and Shi (J. Appl. Probab. 32 (1995) 1077–1088) and of Nielsen and Sandmann (J. Financial Quant. Anal. 38(2) (2003) 449–473). We are able to create a unifying framework for European-style discrete arithmetic Asian options through these bounds, that generalizes several approaches in the literature as well as improves the existing results. We obtain analytical and easily computable bounds. The aim of the paper is to formulate an advice of the appropriate choice of the bounds given the parameters, investigate the effect of different conditioning variables and compare their efficiency numerically. Several sets of numerical results are included. We also discuss hedging using these bounds. Moreover, our methods are applicable to a wide range of (pricing) problems involving a sum of dependent random variables.     

Worst VaR scenarios: A remark

Theorem 15 of Embrechts et al. [Embrechts, Paul, Höing, Andrea, Puccetti, Giovanni, 2005. Worst VaR scenarios. Insurance: Math. Econom. 37, 115-134] proves that comonotonicity gives rise to the on-average-most-adverse Value-at-Risk scenario for a function of dependent risks, when the marginal distributions are known but the dependence structure between the risks is unknown. This note extends this result to the case where, rather than no information, partial information is available on the dependence structure between the risks. A result of Kaas et al. [Kaas, Rob, Dhaene, Jan, Goovaerts, Marc J., 2000. Upper and lower bounds for sums of random variables. Insurance: Math. Econom. 23, 151-168] is also generalized for this purpose.     

Explicit bounds on some new nonlinear integral inequalities with delay

The purpose of the present note is to establish some new delay integral inequalities, which provide explicit bounds on unknown functions and generalize some results of Li et al. [Some new delay integral inequalities and their applications, J. Comput. Appl. Math. 180 (2005) 191–200]. The inequalities given here can be used to investigate the qualitative properties of certain delay differential equations and delay integral equations.     

Quantifying the error of convex order bounds for truncated first moments

The concepts of convex order and comonotonicity have become quite popular in risk theory, essentially since Kaas et al. [Kaas, R., Dhaene, J., Goovaerts, M.J., 2000. Upper and lower bounds for sums of random variables. Insurance: Math. Econ. 27, 151-168] constructed bounds in the convex order sense for a sum S of random variables without imposing any dependence structure upon it. Those bounds are especially helpful, if the distribution of S cannot be calculated explicitly or is too cumbersome to work with. This will be the case for sums of lognormally distributed random variables, which frequently appear in the context of insurance and finance.In this article we quantify the maximal error in terms of truncated first moments, when S is approximated by a lower or an upper convex order bound to it. We make use of geometrical arguments; from the unknown distribution of S only its variance is involved in the computation of the error bounds. The results are illustrated by pricing an Asian option. It is shown that under certain circumstances our error bounds outperform other known error bounds, e.g. the bound proposed by Nielsen and Sandmann [Nielsen, J.A., Sandmann, K., 2003. Pricing bounds on Asian options. J. Financ. Quant. Anal. 38, 449-473].     

Improved convex upper bound via conditional comonotonicity

Comonotonicity provides a convenient convex upper bound for a sum of random variables with arbitrary dependence structure. Improved convex upper bound was introduced via conditioning by Kaas et al. [Kaas, R., Dhaene, J., Goovaerts, M., 2000. Upper and lower bounds for sums of random variables. Insurance: Math. Econ. 27, 151-168]. In this paper, we unify these results in a more general context using the concept of conditional comonotonicity. We also construct an approximating sequence of convex upper bounds with nice convergence properties.     

Bounds and approximations for sums of dependent log-elliptical random variables

Dhaene, Denuit, Goovaerts, Kaas and Vyncke [Dhaene, J., Denuit, M., Goovaerts, M.J., Kaas, R., Vyncke, D., 2002a. The concept of comonotonicity in actuarial science and finance: theory. Insurance Math. Econom. 31 (1), 3-33; Dhaene, J., Denuit, M., Goovaerts, M.J., Kaas, R., Vyncke, D., 2002b. The concept of comonotonicity in actuarial science and finance: Applications. Insurance Math. Econom. 31 (2), 133-161] have studied convex bounds for a sum of dependent random variables and applied these to sums of log-normal random variables. In particular, they have shown how these convex bounds can be used to derive closed-form approximations for several of the risk measures of such a sum. In this paper we investigate to which extent their general results on convex bounds can also be applied to sums of log-elliptical random variables which incorporate sums of log-normals as a special case. Firstly, we show that unlike the log-normal case, for general sums of log-ellipticals the convex lower bound does no longer result in closed-form approximations for the different risk measures. Secondly, we demonstrate how instead the weaker stop-loss order can be used to derive such closed-form approximations. We also present numerical examples to show the accuracy of the proposed approximations.     

Discrete -convex extremal distributions: Theory and applications

Given a nondegenerate moment space with s fixed moments, explicit formulas for the discrete s-convex extremal distribution have been derived for s=1,2,3 (see [M. Denuit, Cl. Lefèvre, Some new classes of stochastic order relations among arithmetic random variables, with applications in actuarial sciences, Insurance Math. Econom. 20 (1997) 197–214]). If s=4, only the maximal distribution is known (see [M. Denuit, Cl. Lefèvre, M. Mesfioui, On s-convex stochastic extrema for arithmetic risks, Insurance Math. Econom. 25 (1999) 143–155]). This work goes beyond this limitation and proposes a method for deriving explicit expressions for general nonnegative integer s. In particular, we derive explicitly the discrete 4-convex minimal distribution. For illustration, we show how this theory allows one to bound the probability of extinction in a Galton–Watson branching process. The results are also applied to derive bounds for the probability of ruin in the compound binomial and Poisson insurance risk models.     

On mean-square stability properties of a new adaptive stochastic Runge–Kutta method

We analyze the mean-square (MS) stability properties of a newly introduced adaptive time-stepping stochastic Runge–Kutta method which relies on two local error estimators based on drift and diffusion terms of the equation [A. Foroush Bastani, S.M. Hosseini, A new adaptive Runge–Kutta method for stochastic differential equations, J. Comput. Appl. Math. 206 (2007) 631–644]. In the same spirit as [H. Lamba, T. Seaman, Mean-square stability properties of an adaptive time-stepping SDE solver, J. Comput. Appl. Math. 194 (2006) 245–254] and with applying our adaptive scheme to a standard linear multiplicative noise test problem, we show that the MS stability region of the adaptive method strictly contains that of the underlying stochastic differential equation. Some numerical experiments confirms the validity of the theoretical results.     

Comment on a paper of Rao et al., an entry of Ramanujan and a new 3F2(1)

A hypergeometric transformation formula is developed that simultaneously simplifies and generalizes arguments and identities in a previous paper of Rao et al. [An entry of Ramanujan on hypergeometric series in his notebooks, J. Comput. Appl. Math. 173(2) (2005) 239–246].     

Notes on a new approximate solution of 2-D heat equation backward in time

In this paper, we consider a backward heat problem that appears in many applications. This problem is ill-posed. The solution of the problem as the solution exhibits unstable dependence on the given data functions. Using a new regularization method, we regularize the problem and get some new error estimates. Some numerical tests illustrate that the proposed method is feasible and effective. This work is a generalization of many recent papers, including the earlier paper [A new regularized method for two dimensional nonhomogeneous backward heat problem, Appl. Math. Comput. 215(3) (2009) 873–880] and some other authors such as Chu-Li Fu et al. ,  and , Campbell et al. [4].     

Periodic solutions for a Lotka–Volterra mutualism system with several delays

In the present paper, a Lotka–Volterra type mutualism system with several delays is studied. Some new and interesting sufficient conditions are obtained for the global existence of positive periodic solutions of the mutualism system. Our method is based on Mawhin’s coincidence degree and novel estimation techniques for the a priori bounds of unknown solutions. Our results are different from the existing ones such as those in of Yang et al. [F. Yang, D. Jiang, A. Ying, Existence of positive solution of multidelays facultative mutualism system, J. Eng. Math. 3 (2002) 64–68] and Chen et al. [F. Chen, J. Shi, X. Chen, Periodicity in a Lotka–Volterra facultative mutualism system with several delays, J. Eng. Math. 21 (3) (2004) 403–409].     

The valuation of contingent capital with catastrophe risks

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (2007) indicates that unanticipated catastrophic events could increase with time because of global warming. Therefore, it seems inadequate to assume that arrival process of catastrophic events follows a pure Poisson process adopted by most previous studies (e.g. [Louberge, H., Kellezi, E., Gilli, M., 1999. Using catastrophe-linked securities to diversify insurance risk: A financial analysis of lCAT bonds. J. Risk Insurance 22, 125–146; Lee, J.-P., Yu, M.-T., 2002. Pricing default-risky CAT bonds with moral hazard and basis risk. J. Risk Insurance 69, 25–44; Cox, H., Fairchild, J., Pedersen, H., 2004. Valuation of structured risk management products. Insurance Math. Econom. 34, 259–272; Jaimungal, S., Wang, T., 2006. Catastrophe options with stochastic interest rates and compound Poisson losses. Insurance Math. Econom., 38, 469–483]. In order to overcome this shortcoming, this paper proposes a doubly stochastic Poisson process to model the arrival process for catastrophic events. Furthermore, we generalize the assumption in the last reference mentioned above to define the general loss function presenting that different specific loss would have different impacts on the drop in stock price. Based on modeling the arrival rates for catastrophe risks, the pricing formulas of contingent capital are derived by the Merton measure. Results of empirical experiments of contingent capital prices as well as sensitivity analyses are presented.     

Comments on “Embedded pair of extended Runge–Kutta–Nyström type methods for perturbed oscillators”

In a recent paper Fang [Embedded pair of extended Runge–Kutta–Nyström type methods for perturbed oscillators, Appl. Math. Modell. (2009), doi:10.1016/j.apm.2009.12.004] considered the embedded pair of extended Runge–Kutta–Nyström type methods for perturbed oscillators and analyzed numerical stability and phase properties of the methods. The authors claimed that their methods are based on the order conditions of extended Runge–Kutta–Nyström type methods presented by Yang et al. [Extended RKN-type methods for numerical integration of perturbed oscillators, Comput. Phys. Commun. 180 (2009) 1777–1794]. However, some careless mistakes have been made in that paper. For this reason we will make some comments on that paper.     

The generalized Dirichlet–Neumann map for linear elliptic PDEs and its numerical implementation

A new approach for analyzing boundary value problems for linear and for integrable nonlinear PDEs was introduced in Fokas [A unified transform method for solving linear and certain nonlinear PDEs, Proc. Roy. Soc. London Ser. A 53 (1997) 1411–1443]. For linear elliptic PDEs, an important aspect of this approach is the characterization of a generalized Dirichlet to Neumann map: given the derivative of the solution along a direction of an arbitrary angle to the boundary, the derivative of the solution perpendicularly to this direction is computed without solving on the interior of the domain. This is based on the analysis of the so-called global relation, an equation which couples known and unknown components of the derivative on the boundary and which is valid for all values of a complex parameter k. A collocation-type numerical method for solving the global relation for the Laplace equation in an arbitrary bounded convex polygon was introduced in Fulton et al. [An analytical method for linear elliptic PDEs and its numerical implementation, J. Comput. Appl. Math. 167 (2004) 465–483]. Here, by choosing a different set of the “collocation points” (values for k), we present a significant improvement of the results in Fulton et al. [An analytical method for linear elliptic PDEs and its numerical implementation, J. Comput. Appl. Math. 167 (2004) 465–483]. The new collocation points lead to well-conditioned collocation methods. Their combination with sine basis functions leads to a collocation matrix whose diagonal blocks are point diagonal matrices yielding efficient implementation of iterative methods; numerical experimentation suggests quadratic convergence. The choice of Chebyshev basis functions leads to higher order convergence, which for regular polygons appear to be exponential.     

A note on “Some inequalities in inner product spaces related to the generalized triangle inequality” by S.S. Dragomir et al.

In this note, we present an affirmative answer to a question presented in the paper “Some inequalities in inner product spaces related to the generalized triangle inequality” by S.S. Dragomir et al. [Appl. Math. Comput. 217 (18) (2011) 7462-7468].     

Heath–Jarrow–Morton modelling of longevity bonds and the risk minimization of life insurance portfolios

This paper has two parts. In the first, we apply the Heath–Jarrow–Morton (HJM) methodology to the modelling of longevity bond prices. The idea of using the HJM methodology is not new. We can cite Cairns et al. [Cairns A.J., Blake D., Dowd K, 2006. Pricing death: framework for the valuation and the securitization of mortality risk. Astin Bull., 36 (1), 79–120], Miltersen and Persson [Miltersen K.R., Persson S.A., 2005. Is mortality dead? Stochastic force of mortality determined by arbitrage? Working Paper, University of Bergen] and Bauer [Bauer D., 2006. An arbitrage-free family of longevity bonds. Working Paper, Ulm University]. Unfortunately, none of these papers properly defines the prices of the longevity bonds they are supposed to be studying. Accordingly, the main contribution of this section is to describe a coherent theoretical setting in which we can properly define these longevity bond prices. A second objective of this section is to describe a more realistic longevity bonds market model than in previous papers. In particular, we introduce an additional effect of the actual mortality on the longevity bond prices, that does not appear in the literature. We also study multiple term structures of longevity bonds instead of the usual single term structure. In this framework, we derive a no-arbitrage condition for the longevity bond financial market. We also discuss the links between such HJM based models and the intensity models for longevity bonds such as those of Dahl [Dahl M., 2004. Stochastic mortality in life insurance: Market reserves and mortality-linked insurance contracts, Insurance: Math. Econom. 35 (1) 113–136], Biffis [Biffis E., 2005. Affine processes for dynamic mortality and actuarial valuations. Insurance: Math. Econom. 37, 443–468], Luciano and Vigna [Luciano E. and Vigna E., 2005. Non mean reverting affine processes for stochastic mortality. ICER working paper], Schrager [Schrager D.F., 2006. Affine stochastic mortality. Insurance: Math. Econom. 38, 81–97] and Hainaut and Devolder [Hainaut D., Devolder P., 2007. Mortality modelling with Lévy processes. Insurance: Math. Econom. (in press)], and suggest the standard pricing formula of these intensity models could be extended to more general settings.In the second part of this paper, we study the asset allocation problem of pure endowment and annuity portfolios. In order to solve this problem, we study the “risk-minimizing” strategies of such portfolios, when some but not all longevity bonds are available for trading. In this way, we introduce different basis risks.     

Computation of convex bounds for present value functions with random payments

In this contribution we study the distribution of the present value function of a series of random payments in a stochastic financial environment. Such distributions occur naturally in a wide range of applications within fields of insurance and finance. We obtain accurate approximations by developing upper and lower bounds in the convex-order sense for present value functions. Technically speaking, our methodology is an extension of the results of Dhaene et al. [Insur. Math. Econom. 31(1) (2002) 3–33, Insur. Math. Econom. 31(2) (2002) 133–161] to the case of scalar products of mutually independent random vectors.