Limit theorems for occupation time fluctuations of branching systems II: Critical and large dimensions

We give functional limit theorems for the fluctuations of the rescaled occupation time process of a critical branching particle system in R^d${\mathbb{R}}^d$ with symmetric α$\alpha$-stable motion in the cases of critical and large dimensions, d=2α$d=2\alpha$ and d>2α$d>2\alpha$. In a previous paper [T. Bojdecki, L.G. Gorostiza, A. Talarczyk, Limit theorems for occupation time fluctuations of branching systems I: long-range dependence, Stochastic Process. Appl., this issue.] we treated the case of intermediate dimensions, α<d<2α$\alpha <d<2\alpha$, which leads to a long-range dependence limit process. In contrast, in the present cases the limits are generalized Wiener processes. We use the same space–time random field method of the previous paper, the main difference being that now the tightness requires a new approach and the proofs are more difficult. We also give analogous results for the system without branching in the cases d=α$d=\alpha$ and d>α$d>\alpha$.     

Asymptotic distribution of the CLSE in a critical process with immigration

It is known that in the critical case the conditional least squares estimator (CLSE) of the offspring mean of a discrete time branching process with immigration is not asymptotically normal. If the offspring variance tends to zero, it is normal with normalization factor n^2/3$n^{2/3}$. We study a situation of its asymptotic normality in the case of non-degenerate offspring distribution for the process with time-dependent immigration, whose mean and variance vary regularly with non-negative exponents α$\alpha$ and β$\beta$, respectively. We prove that if β<1+2α$\beta <1+2\alpha$, the CLSE is asymptotically normal with two different normalization factors and if β>1+2α$\beta >1+2\alpha$, its limit distribution is not normal but can be expressed in terms of the distribution of certain functionals of the time-changed Wiener process. When β=1+2α$\beta =1+2\alpha$ the limit distribution depends on the behavior of the slowly varying parts of the mean and variance.     

On functional limits of short- and long-memory linear processes with GARCH(1,1) noises

This paper considers the short- and long-memory linear processes with GARCH (1,1) noises. The functional limit distributions of the partial sum and the sample autocovariances are derived when the tail index α$\alpha$ is in (0,2)$(0,2)$, equal to 2, and in (2,∞)$(2,\infty )$, respectively. The partial sum weakly converges to a functional of α$\alpha$-stable process when α<2$\alpha <2$ and converges to a functional of Brownian motion when α≥2$\alpha \ge 2$. When the process is of short-memory and α<4$\alpha <4$, the autocovariances converge to functionals of α/2$\alpha /2$-stable processes; and if α≥4$\alpha \ge 4$, they converge to functionals of Brownian motions. In contrast, when the process is of long-memory, depending on α$\alpha$ and β$\beta$ (the parameter that characterizes the long-memory), the autocovariances converge to either (i) functionals of α/2$\alpha /2$-stable processes; (ii) Rosenblatt processes (indexed by β$\beta$, 1/2<β<3/4$1/2<\beta <3/4$); or (iii) functionals of Brownian motions. The rates of convergence in these limits depend on both the tail index α$\alpha$ and whether or not the linear process is short- or long-memory. Our weak convergence is established on the space of càdlàg functions on [0,1]$[0,1]$ with either (i) the _J1$J_1$ or the _M1$M_1$ topology (Skorokhod, 1956); or (ii) the weaker form S$S$ topology (Jakubowski, 1997). Some statistical applications are also discussed.     

Joint temporal and contemporaneous aggregation of random-coefficient AR(1) processes

We discuss joint temporal and contemporaneous aggregation of N$N$ independent copies of AR(1) process with random-coefficient a∈[0,1)$a\in [0,1)$ when N$N$ and time scale n$n$ increase at different rate. Assuming that a$a$ has a density, regularly varying at a=1$a=1$ with exponent −1<β<1$-1<\beta <1$, different joint limits of normalized aggregated partial sums are shown to exist when N^1/(1+β)/n$N^{1/(1+\beta )}/n$ tends to (i) ∞$\infty$, (ii) 0$0$, (iii) 0<μ<∞$0<\mu <\infty$. The limit process arising under (iii) admits a Poisson integral representation on (0,∞)×C(R)$(0,\infty )\times C\left(\mathbb{R}\right)$ and enjoys ‘intermediate’ properties between fractional Brownian motion limit in (i) and sub-Gaussian limit in (ii).     

Limit theorems for occupation time fluctuations of branching systems I: Long-range dependence

We give a functional limit theorem for the fluctuations of the rescaled occupation time process of a critical branching particle system in R^d${\mathbb{R}}^d$ with symmetric α$\alpha$-stable motion and α<d<2α$\alpha <d<2\alpha$, which leads to a long-range dependence process involving sub-fractional Brownian motion. We also give an analogous result for the system without branching and d<α$d<\alpha$, which involves fractional Brownian motion. We use a space–time random field approach.     

On the length of an external branch in the Beta-coalescent

In this paper, we consider Beta(2−α,α)$(2-\alpha ,\alpha )$ (with 1<α<2$1<\alpha <2$) and related Λ$\Lambda$-coalescents. If T⁽ⁿ⁾$T^{\left(n\right)}$ denotes the length of a randomly chosen external branch of the n$n$-coalescent, we prove the convergence of n^α−1T⁽ⁿ⁾$n^{\alpha -1}{T}^{\left(n\right)}$ when n$n$ tends to ∞$\infty$, and give the limit. To this aim, we give asymptotics for the number σ⁽ⁿ⁾${\sigma }^{\left(n\right)}$ of collisions which occur in the n$n$-coalescent until the end of the chosen external branch, and for the block counting process associated with the n$n$-coalescent.     

Monotonicity of the reflected Bessel transition density on the diagonal

For α∈R$\alpha \in \mathbb{R}$, let p^R(t,x,x)$p^R(t,x,x)$ denote the diagonal of the transition density of the α$\alpha$-Bessel process in (0,1]$(0,1]$, killed at 0 and reflected at 1. As a function of x$x$, if either α≥3$\alpha \ge 3$ or α=1$\alpha =1$, then for t>0$t>0$, the diagonal is nondecreasing. This monotonicity property fails if 1≠α<3$1\ne \alpha <3$.     

Comparing the minimal Hellinger martingale measure of order q to the q-optimal martingale measure

This paper investigates the relationship between the minimal Hellinger martingale measure of order q$q$ (MHM measure hereafter) and the q$q$-optimal martingale measure for any q≠1$q\ne 1$. First, we provide more results for the MHM measure; in particular we establish its complete characterization in two manners. Then we derive two equivalent conditions for both martingale measures to coincide. These conditions are in particular fulfilled in the case of markets driven by Lévy processes. Finally, we analyze the MHM measure as well as its relationship to the q$q$-optimal martingale measure for the case of a discrete-time market model.     

Transformation formulas for fractional Brownian motion

We derive a Molchan–Golosov-type integral transform which changes fractional Brownian motion of arbitrary Hurst index K$K$ into fractional Brownian motion of index H$H$. Integration is carried out over [0,t]$[0,t]$, t>0$t>0$. The formula is derived in the time domain. Based on this transform, we construct a prelimit which converges in L²(P)$L^2\left(\mathbb{P}\right)$-sense to an analogous, already known Mandelbrot–Van Ness-type integral transform, where integration is over (−∞,t]$(-\infty ,t]$, t>0$t>0$.     

Large deviations of infinite intersections of events in Gaussian processes

Consider events of the form {_Zs≥ζ(s),s∈S}$\{Z_s\ge \zeta \left(s\right),s\in S\}$, where Z$Z$ is a continuous Gaussian process with stationary increments, ζ$\zeta$ is a function that belongs to the reproducing kernel Hilbert space R$R$ of process Z$Z$, and S⊂R$S\subset \mathbb{R}$ is compact. The main problem considered in this paper is identifying the function β^∗∈R${\beta }^{\ast }\in R$ satisfying β^∗(s)≥ζ(s)${\beta }^{\ast }\left(s\right)\ge \zeta \left(s\right)$ on S$S$ and having minimal R$R$-norm. The smoothness (mean square differentiability) of Z$Z$ turns out to have a crucial impact on the structure of the solution. As examples, we obtain the explicit solutions when ζ(s)=s$\zeta \left(s\right)=s$ for s∈[0,1]$s\in [0,1]$ and Z$Z$ is either a fractional Brownian motion or an integrated Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process.     

A note on distance-regular graphs with a small number of vertices compared to the valency

In this note we study distance-regular graphs with a small number of vertices compared to the valency. We show that for a given α>2$\alpha >2$, there are finitely many distance-regular graphs Γ$\Gamma$ with valency k$k$, diameter D≥3$D\ge 3$ and v$v$ vertices satisfying v≤αk$v\le \alpha k$ unless (D=3$D=3$ and Γ$\Gamma$ is imprimitive) or (D=4$D=4$ and Γ$\Gamma$ is antipodal and bipartite). We also show, as a consequence of this result, that there are finitely many distance-regular graphs with valency k≥3$k\ge 3$, diameter D≥3$D\ge 3$ and _c2≥εk$c_2\ge \epsilon k$ for a given 0<ε<1$0<\epsilon <1$ unless (D=3$D=3$ and Γ$\Gamma$ is imprimitive) or (D=4$D=4$ and Γ$\Gamma$ is antipodal and bipartite).     

Unilateral small deviations of processes related to the fractional Brownian motion

Let x(s)$x\left(s\right)$, s∈R^d$s\in R^d$ be a Gaussian self-similar random process of index H$H$. We consider the problem of log-asymptotics for the probability _pT$p_T$ that x(s)$x\left(s\right)$, x(0)=0$x\left(0\right)=0$ does not exceed a fixed level in a star-shaped expanding domain T⋅Δ$T\cdot \Delta$ as T→∞$T\to \infty$. We solve the problem of the existence of the limit, θ?lim(−log_pT)/(logT)^D$\theta ?lim(-log{p}_T)/{(logT)}^D$, T→∞$T\to \infty$, for the fractional Brownian sheet x(s)$x\left(s\right)$, s∈[0,T]²$s\in {[0,T]}^2$ when D=2$D=2$, and we estimate θ$\theta$ for the integrated fractional Brownian motion when D=1$D=1$.     

A short proof of the Doob–Meyer theorem

Every submartingale S$S$ of class D$D$ has a unique Doob–Meyer decomposition S=M+A$S=M+A$, where M$M$ is a martingale and A$A$ is a predictable increasing process starting at 0.     

Breaking the chain

We consider the motion of a Brownian particle in R$\mathbb{R}$, moving between a particle fixed at the origin and another moving deterministically away at slow speed ε>0$\epsilon >0$. The middle particle interacts with its neighbours via a potential of finite range b>0$b>0$, with a unique minimum at a>0$a>0$, where b<2a$b<2a$. We say that the chain of particles breaks on the left- or right-hand side when the middle particle is at a distance greater than b$b$ from its left or right neighbour, respectively. We study the asymptotic location of the first break of the chain in the limit of small noise, in the case where ε=ε(σ)$\epsilon =\epsilon \left(\sigma \right)$ and σ>0$\sigma >0$ is the noise intensity.     

Backward SDEs driven by Gaussian processes

In this paper we discuss existence and uniqueness results for BSDEs driven by centered Gaussian processes. Compared to the existing literature on Gaussian BSDEs, which mainly treats fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H>1/2$H>1/2$, our main contributions are: (i) Our results cover a wide class of Gaussian processes as driving processes including fractional Brownian motion with arbitrary Hurst parameter H∈(0,1)$H\in (0,1)$; (ii) the assumptions on the generator f$f$ are mild and include e.g. the case when f$f$ has (super-)quadratic growth in z$z$; (iii) the proofs are based on transferring the problem to an auxiliary BSDE driven by a Brownian motion.     

Phase transition in equilibrium fluctuations of symmetric slowed exclusion

We analyze the equilibrium fluctuations of density, current and tagged particle in symmetric exclusion with a slow bond. The system evolves in the one-dimensional lattice and the jump rate is everywhere equal to one except at the slow bond where it is αn^−β$\alpha n^{-\beta }$, with α>0$\alpha >0$, β∈[0,+∞]$\beta \in [0,+\infty ]$ and n$n$ is the scaling parameter. Depending on the regime of β$\beta$, we find three different behaviors for the limiting fluctuations whose covariances are explicitly computed. In particular, for the critical value β=1$\beta =1$, starting a tagged particle near the slow bond, we obtain a family of Gaussian processes indexed in α$\alpha$, interpolating a fractional Brownian motion of Hurst exponent 1/4$1/4$ and the degenerate process equal to zero.     

Nonparametric estimation for pure jump Lévy processes based on high frequency data

In this paper, we study nonparametric estimation of the Lévy density for pure jump Lévy processes. We consider n$n$ discrete time observations with step Δ$\Delta$. The asymptotic framework is: n$n$ tends to infinity, Δ=_Δn$\Delta ={\Delta }_n$ tends to zero while n_Δn$n{\Delta }_n$ tends to infinity. First, we use a Fourier approach (“frequency domain”): this allows us to construct an adaptive nonparametric estimator and to provide a bound for the global L²${\mathbb{L}}^2$-risk. Second, we use a direct approach (“time domain”) which allows us to construct an estimator on a given compact interval. We provide a bound for L²${\mathbb{L}}^2$-risk restricted to the compact interval. We discuss rates of convergence and give examples and simulation results for processes fitting in our framework.     

Some limit theorems for Hawkes processes and application to financial statistics

In the context of statistics for random processes, we prove a law of large numbers and a functional central limit theorem for multivariate Hawkes processes observed over a time interval [0,T]$[0,T]$ when T→∞$T\to \infty$. We further exhibit the asymptotic behaviour of the covariation of the increments of the components of a multivariate Hawkes process, when the observations are imposed by a discrete scheme with mesh Δ$\Delta$ over [0,T]$[0,T]$ up to some further time shift τ$\tau$. The behaviour of this functional depends on the relative size of Δ$\Delta$ and τ$\tau$ with respect to T$T$ and enables to give a full account of the second-order structure. As an application, we develop our results in the context of financial statistics. We introduced in Bacry et al. (2013) [7] a microscopic stochastic model for the variations of a multivariate financial asset, based on Hawkes processes and that is confined to live on a tick grid. We derive and characterise the exact macroscopic diffusion limit of this model and show in particular its ability to reproduce the important empirical stylised fact such as the Epps effect and the lead–lag effect. Moreover, our approach enables to track these effects across scales in rigorous mathematical terms.