抗艾滋病药物的评价与预测模型

第一问中对CD4数量和HIV浓度随周期变化分别建立线性模型和二次模型,由数据确立中度患者CD4随时间变化模型为:C(T)=0.0496T+3.0659,HIV随时间变化为:H(T)=0.0044T2-0.2317T+4.2899.确定最佳治疗终止时间为:轻度患者28.90周,中度患者31.97周,重度患者为40.86周,平均最佳终止治疗时间33.91周.第二问中得出疗法4效果最好,疗法3次之,疗法1最差.然后通过建立了回归分析模型,对最优疗法进行预测,得到最佳终止治疗时间为25.53周.第三问在第二问的基础上增加了治疗费用对治疗效果的影响,计算得出:疗法3为最优,疗法1次之,疗法2最差.用疗法3的数据进行作图分析得到疗法3的最佳治疗终止时间为40周.     

多元协方差分析用于艾滋病疗法的选择

目的:优化HAART药物治疗方案,提高治疗效果,为广大患者和医生选择艾滋病的疗法提供科学的依据.方法:以CD4细胞数的增加值作为体现治疗效果的因变量,治疗时间和初始治疗CD4细胞数为协变量,通过四组疗法分组进行多元协方差分析。结果:患者治疗效果的差异主要是由于治疗方法和治疗时间以及初始治疗cd4值的差异所致;四种疗法的疗效总体上差异显著,满足完备性条件和显著性条件的疗法疗效优劣顺序是:M4>M2≈M3≈M1.结论:多元协方差分析用于艾滋病疗法的选择对实际工作有积极的指导意义.     

多重改良Logistic模型在磷酸电位滴定的离解平衡常数计算中的应用

基于磷酸电位滴定实验常用切线法、一阶微商法及二阶微商内插法等进行实验数据处理并计算磷酸离解平衡常数的烦琐与不准确性,提出一种与实验数据有高度吻合性的多重改良Logistic模型,应用优化求解得最佳函数表达式,解此函数一阶导数极大值点并计算得磷酸滴定半中和点,结合离解平衡常数校正公式最终得出了磷酸的离解平衡常数的各级pKa值,与文献结果相一致.另外,减少部分实验数据后应用模型处理并计算pKa值,所得结论仍具有一致性,从而提高了实验效率。     

基于混合治愈模型的网络借贷投资组合决策模型与实证研究

作为互联网消费金融的一种新型模式,P2P借贷(peer-to-peer lending)凭借其高回报与低门槛的特点,吸引了众多投资者与借款人的关注.如何有效地实现在P2P平台贷款的投资组合决策,为不同投资者提供最佳投资方案极为重要.文章将投资组合决策转化为一个给定时间下的收益最大化、风险最小化的优化问题,通过引入混合治愈模型来改进基于实例的投资组合优化模型,使用核函数来刻画历史贷款与待投贷款的相似性,在此基础上通过混合治愈模型筛选终止时间小于给定时间的待投贷款,构建基于实例的模型,对投资者的投资组合决策进行优化.通过美国Lending Club的数据对本文模型进行实证分析,结果表明,文章模型有助于实现资金的合理化分配,使投资者获得时间、收益、风险三方面的权衡的投资组合决策.     

管理效力层次分析

本运用总量生产函数与数据包络分析法、投入产出模型对企业管理分三个层次作了有效的分析,为企业确定管理与工厂的贡献率和管理产出弹性提供了依据。     

基于线性混合模型的艾滋病最佳治疗时机选择

本文利用美国艾滋病医疗试验机构ACTG的193A研究中的一组非平衡重复测量数据。以log(cd4+1)为体现疗效的因变量,年龄、性别为固定效应,治疗时间和滞后治疗时间为随机效应,同时考虑疗法对疗效的影响引入其与治疗时间的交互效应,建立线性混合效应模型。用SAS软件求解。再通过建立以治疗时间斜率随机效应为因变量初始logcd4为解释变量的回归模型判断艾滋病最佳治疗时机。结果表明,当初始cd4为185个/mm~3时治疗时机最佳,即为无症状感染的晚期.与美国DHHS推荐的小于200个/mm~3一致,却更为科学和精确。本研究对艾滋病治疗的临床实践具有重要的指导意义。     

以函数为参量的间歇发酵非线性动力系统及其辨识

建立以连续分段线性函数为参量的间歇发酵非线性动力系统,证明该动力系统的主要性质及解的存在性.以实验数据拟合得到的光滑曲线为依据,提出了连续分段线性函数为优化变量的辨识模型,论述可辨识性.依状态变量与辨识函数的相关性,构造求解辨识模型的优化算法,并给出优化算法的收敛性分析及数值结果.     

人口密集场所紧急疏散问题中的速度模型

从人的身体素质及心理素质出发,研究人口密集场所紧急疏散问题中人员移动速度与人间距这对主要矛盾,建立了相应的微分方程.数据拟合表明,积分该微分方程所得到的人员移动速度——人间距的表达式是比较合理的函数关系.它不仅使用方便,而且拟合的相关系数高.为人口密集场所制定紧急疏散方案提供了依据.     

HIV患者外周血CD4+/CD25hi/CD127low调节性T细胞的表达及临床意义

目的探讨感染人类自身免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）患者抗病毒治疗前后外周血CD4+/CD25hi/CD127low调节性T细胞的表达情况及临床意义。方法选择符合HIV诊断标准、接受抗病毒治疗超过3个月的64例患者,采用高效抗逆转录病毒治疗（HARRT）,分别于治疗前、治疗3个月后采用流式细胞术检测外周血CD4+/CD25hi/CD127low调节性T细胞和CD4+T细胞的表达情况,并与80例健康体检者（对照组）比较。结果与对照组比较,HIV患者CD4+/CD25hi/CD127low调节性T细胞绝对计数及百分比显著降低,差异有统计学意义（P＜0.01）。HIV患者的CD4+/CD25hi/CD127low调节性T细胞绝对计数和CD4+T细胞呈正相关（P＜0.01）;HIV患者治疗3个月后CD4+/CD25hi/CD127low调节性T细胞均有升高,与治疗前的差异均有统计学意义（均P＜0.01）。根据年龄将患者分为18~30岁、31~45岁、＞45岁,各年龄段患者治疗后CD4+/CD25hi/CD127low调节性T细胞绝对计数分别是治疗前的4.28倍、3.00倍、2.00倍。结论 HIV患者外周血CD4+/CD25hi/CD127low调节性T细胞的表达与病毒的感染、清除有关;外源性药物可升高调节性T细胞的表达。     

基于改进的BP网络对CET-4累计通过率时间序列的预测

时间序列并非总呈自相关性.与[4]不同,对本文中的CET-4累计通过率时间序列建立线性及二阶自回归模型,仿真计算失效.改进的BP网络,适用所有的一维时间序列.本文采用二步预测法,与其它采用BP网络对时间序列预测不同的是,本文不仅预测下一年的时间序列值,还将整个预测模型仿真出来,画出三维图形,从而为教务政策的制订提供直观易看、合理、客观的依据.     

国际原油价格预测的双层随机整数规划模型、算法及应用

根据国际原油价格近期数据及原油价格变化量,给出了国际原油价格改变量的状态转移概率(或频率)矩阵.依此提出以国际原油价格预测误差的期望与方差最小为最优目标,建立国际原油价格预测的双层随机整数规划,并论述该优化问题最优解的存在性, 根据约束特性构造了优化算法.同时按照国内现行成品油定价机制, 提出的优化算法,对国内成品油调价进行了预测,实证分析表明提出的模型与优化算法具有一定的预测精度和较好的实用性.     

随机利率下期权定价

本文在随机利率的基础上,考虑股票价格过程和利率过程分别为扩散过程和Ito过程,并且在相关的假设下,运用鞅方法推导出欧式期权价值过程所满足的微分方程;以及利率满足一种特殊方程时,运用最优停止的鞅方法,得到了随机利率下美式期权的价格和最优停时.     

Optimal dynamic pricing of inventories with stochastic demand and discounted criterion

We consider a continuous time dynamic pricing problem for selling a given number of items over a finite or infinite time horizon. The demand is price sensitive and follows a non-homogeneous Poisson process. We formulate this problem as to maximize the expected discounted revenue and obtain the structural properties of the optimal revenue function and optimal price policy by the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation. Moreover, we study the impact of the discount rate on the optimal revenue function and the optimal price. Further, we extend the problem to the case with discounting and time-varying demand, the infinite time horizon problem. Numerical examples are used to illustrate our analytical results.     

Integrating inventory control and a price change in the presence of reference price effects: a two-period model

Demand and procurement planning for consumer electronics products must cope with short life cycles, limited replenishment opportunities and a willingness to pay that is influenced by past prices and decreases over time. We therefore propose the use of an integrated pricing and inventory control model with a two-period linear demand model, in which demand also depends on the difference between a price-history-based reference price and the current price. For this model we prove that the optimal joint pricing/inventory policy for the replenishment opportunity after the first period is a base-stock list-price policy. That is, stock is either replenished up to a base-stock level and a list-price is charged, or it is not replenished and a discount is given that increases with the stock-level. Furthermore, we use real-world cell phone data to study the differences between an integrated policy and traditional sequential optimization, where prices are initially optimized based on the expected demand and ordering cost, and the resulting demand distribution is used to determine an optimal inventory policy. Finally, we discuss possible extensions of the model.     

Optimal strategies for general price-quality decision models of new products with learning production costs

The question of product quality permeates every level of business and is becoming crucial for the survival of modern manufacturing firms in automotive and high-tech industries. In this paper, we deal with the optimal price and quality policies for the introduction of a new product. On the supply side, the firm wants to determine the unit price and quality level over time given that unit cost declines along a learning curve, and increases if quality is made greater. On the demand side, dynamic demand is related to price and quality, as well as to cumulative sales (which represent diffusion and saturation effects). We will model this problem in a general framework that includes several previous results as special cases.By applying the maximum principle, we will derive the optimal price and quality policies and discover the interactions between these two major strategic marketing instruments, and the diffusion process. Several fundamental theoretical results will be established for the model. Under certain specified conditions higher prices do imply higher quality, and under other conditions the optimal price declines over time while the product quality improves. To illustrate these results, the theoretical results are applied to two specific-cases: the first one is a simple nonseparable demand growth function in price and quality, the other is a separable demand function of price and quality.     

Determining optimal selling price and lot size with a varying rate of deterioration and exponential partial backlogging

In this paper, a deterministic inventory model for deteriorating items with price-dependent demand is developed. The demand and deterioration rates are continuous and differentiable function of price and time, respectively. In addition, we allow for shortages and the unsatisfied demand is partially backlogged at a negative exponential rate with the waiting time. Under these assumptions, for any given selling price, we first develop the criterion for the optimal solution for the replenishment schedule, and prove that the optimal replenishment policy not only exists but also is unique. If the criterion is not satisfied, the inventory system should not be operated. Next, we show that the total profit per unit time is a concave function of price when the replenishment schedule is given. We then provide a simple algorithm to find the optimal selling price and replenishment schedule for the proposed model. Finally, we use numerical examples to illustrate the algorithm.     

Signaling Quality: Dynamic Price-Advertising Model

This paper extends the existing quality-signaling literature by investigating the roles of price and advertising levels as quality indicators in a dynamic framework. Considering perceived quality as a form of goodwill, we modify the well-known Nerlove-Arrow dynamic model to include price effects. In our model, price is used both as a monetary constraint and as a signal of quality, while advertising spending is used only as a signaling device, and thus purely as a dissipative expense. Utilizing optimal control, we determine optimal decision rules for a firm regarding both price and advertising over time as functions of perceived quality. The results indicate that, when prices act as monetary constraints and are reduced to increase demand, the firm should use the signaling role of advertising by increasing spending to accelerate perceived quality increases. In cases when the value of the perceived quality goes up together with the increase in the perceived quality by more than the demand, in percentage terms, the firm should increase the price (use its signaling role). At steady-state, we find that the level of optimal profit margin relative to price decreases with the elasticity of demand with respect to the brand price. However, higher elasticity of demand with respect to the firm’s perceived quality and/or a higher impact of price (advertising) lead/leads to a higher optimal profit margin (advertising spending) relative to price (revenue).     

带有风能的智能电网多周期买电策略研究

本文研究带有风能随机供给的智能电网中传统能源的多周期买电问题,假设存在一个能源运营商集中负责智能电网传统能源的购买和消费。通过构建并求解动态规划模型,找到能源运营商在风能供给不确定性下的传统能源最优多周期买电策略。在最优买电策略下,能源运营商只有在当期电价足够小时才购买传统能源,其买电量与风能分布、价格信息和时间信息有关。在实际数据的基础之上,提供详实的数值实验对比研究了本文的最优买电策略和其他两种策略(实践中只考虑风能估计的策略和放弃利用风能的策略)在最小化总成本方面的效果,并验证了本文的最优买电策略在真实风能数据中的鲁棒性。     

Price setting policies for service systems in case of uncertain demand and service time

Building anM/M/1 queueing model, we determine price and capacity of a service system within monopolistic and competitive frameworks.The existence of a solution for a monopolist is shown and optimal capacity is determined, if demand is elastic.We also determine, within a competitive framework, the number of firms, outputs of each per unit of time, and the relation between price and the number of firms for elastic demands (which has a maximum).Finally, we show that competition supplies a much larger output than monopoly at the price set by the monopolist, if elasticity equals 2.     

Optimal Selling of an Asset with Jumps Under Incomplete Information

ABSTRACT

We study the optimal liquidation strategy of an asset with price process satisfying a jump diffusion model with unknown jump intensity. It is assumed that the intensity takes one of two given values, and we have an initial estimate for the probability of both of them. As time goes by, by observing the price fluctuations, we can thus update our beliefs about the probabilities for the intensity distribution. We formulate an optimal stopping problem describing the optimal liquidation problem. It is shown that the optimal strategy is to liquidate the first time the point process falls below (goes above) a certain time-dependent boundary.